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helb loan second batch 2016/2017 - Framework
Technological Progress Framework
We should celebrate technological progress, not fear the unknown
Thierer & Castillo, June 15, 2015, Adam Thierer is a senior research fellow with the Technology Policy Program at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He specializes in technology, media, Internet, and free-speech policies, with a particular focus on online safety and digital privacy. His latest book is Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom. Thierer is a frequent guest lecturer, has testified numerous times on Capitol Hill, and has served on several distinguished online safety task forces, including Harvard University’s Internet Safety Technical Task Force and the federal government’s Online Safety Technology Working Group. He received his MA in international business management and trade theory at the University of Maryland. Andrea Castillo is the program manager of the Technology Policy Program for the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and is pursuing a PhD in economics at George Mason University. She is a coauthor of Liberalism and Cronyism: Two Rival Political and Economic Systems with Randall G. Holcombe and Bitcoin: A Primer for Policymakers with Jerry Brito. Castillo received her BS in economics and political science from Florida State University, PROJECTING THE GROWTH AND THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE INTERNET OF THINGS, https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/IoT-EP-v3.pdf
These potentially large economic gains must be considered when policymakers are debating policy for IoT. It is always easy to conjure up hypothetical worst-case scenarios about how some of these technologies may be misused, or how they might disrupt certain sectors and pro- fessions. But, as Thierer writes, if public policy is based upon fear of worst-case scenarios, then best-case scenarios will never come about. As economic historian Joel Mokyr has observed, “technological progress requires above all tolerance toward the unfamiliar and the eccentric.” More generally, long-term social progress and economic prosperity hinge upon a general will- ingness to engage in ongoing trial-and-error experimentation with new technologies like IoT.
Advances in technology are needed to improve society
Williams & Srnicek 13(Alex, PhD student at the University of East London, presently at work on a thesis entitled 'Hegemony and Complexity', Nick, PhD candidate in International Relations at the London School of Economics, Interviewed by C Derick Varn & Dario Cankovich, at The North Star, “The Speed of Future Thought: C. Derick Varn and Dario Cankovich Interview Alex Williams and Nick Srnicek”, http://www.thenorthstar.info/?p=9240)
Our conclusion that post-capitalist planning is required stems from the theoretical failures of market socialism as well as from our own belief that a planned system can distribute goods and resources in a more rational way than the market system. This differs from previous experiments with such a system in rejecting both the techno-utopian impulse of much recent writing on post-capitalism, and the centralised nature of the Soviet system. With regards to the former – we valorise technology not simply as a means to solve problems,but also as a weapon to wield in social struggles. So we reject any Silicon Valley-ish faith in technology – a problem that the liberal left often falls into. On the other hand, we reject any discourse of authenticity which sees technology as an aberration or as the source of contemporary problems – a problem that the proper left often falls into. The question has to be ‘how can we develop, design and use technology in a way which furthers leftist goals?’ This means thinking how infrastructures, data analytics, logistics networks, and automation can all play a role in building the material platform for a post-capitalist system. The belief that our current technologies are intrinsically wedded to a neoliberal social system is not only theoretically obsolete, but also practically limiting. So without thinking technology is sufficient to save us, we nevertheless believe that technology is a primary area where tools and weapons for struggle can be developed. With regards to the centralised nature of planning, it should be clear to everyone that the Soviet system was a failure in many regards. The issue here is to learn from past experiments such as GOSPLAN, and from theoretical proposals such as Parecon and Devine’s democratic planning. Particularly inspiring here is the Chilean experiment, Cybersyn, which contrary to the stereotype of a planned economy, in fact attempted to build a system which incorporated worker’s self-autonomy and factory-level democracy into the planned economy. There remain issues here about the gender-bias of the system (the design of the central hub being built for men, for instance), yet this experiment is a rich resource for thinking through what it might mean to build a post-capitalist economy. And it should be remembered that Cybersyn was built with less than the computing power of a smartphone. It is today’s technology which offers real resources for organising an economy in a far more rational way than the market system does. It has to be recognised then that communism is an idea that was ahead of its time. It is a 21st century idea that was made popular in the 20th century and was enacted by a 19th century economy.
Innovation drives progress and human flourishing
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
What these and most other definitions of innovation share in common, then, is a focus on new and better ways of doing things and, in particular, new ways of satisfying human wnts and needs. Thus, even if its precise definition proves elusive, what is most crucial about the process of innovation is that it serves as a means to an end: it helps drive progress and human flourishing. “Innovation is more than the latest technology,” notes Sofia Ranchordás, a resident fellow at Yale Law School, “it is a phenomenon that can result in the improvement of living conditions of people and strengthening of communities. Innovation can be technological and social, and the former might assist the latter to empower groups in ways we once thought unimaginable,” she observes. 45 The endless search for new and better ways of doing things drives human learning and, ultimately, prosperity in every sense— economic, social, and cultural. The pessimistic critics of technological progress and permissionless innovation have many laments, but they typically fail to consult the historical record to determine how much better off we are than our ancestors. 46 And that record is unambiguous, as Robert Bryce explains in his recent book, Smaller Faster Lighter Denser Cheaper: How Innovation Keeps Proving the Catastrophists Wrong: The pessimistic worldview ignores an undeniable truth: more people are living longer, healthier, freer, more peaceful, lives than at any time in human history… [T] he plain reality is that things are getting better, a lot better, for tens of millions of people around the world. Dozens of factors can be cited for the improving conditions of humankind. But the simplest explanation is that innovation is allowing us to do more with less. 47 “Doing more with less” drives greater economic efficiency, expands the range of goods and services available, and generally lowers prices. 48 This raises our overall standard of living over the long term. 49 Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 898-902). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
Innovation boosts global economic growth
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
Indeed, there exists widespread consensus among economic historians and scholars that, as the Cato Institute’s Brink Lindsey asserts, “the long-term future of economic growthhinges ultimately on innovation.” 50 Countless economic studies and historical surveys have documented the positive relationship between technological progress and economic growth. A 2010 white paper from the US Department of Commerce revealed that “[ t] echnological innovation is linked to three-quarters of the Nation’s post-WW II growth rate” and continued on to note that, [a] s it fuels economic growth, innovation also produces high-paying jobs. Recent studies by the Federal Reserve show that innovation in capital goods is the primary driver of increases in real wages. Without innovation, wages would be much lower. Additionally, across countries, 75% of differences in income can be explained by innovation-driven productivity differentials. 51 These findings are reflected in many other major economic studies on the factors that drive economic growth. For example, two major economic surveys from 2003 and 2006 found that technological progress accounts for 30– 34 percent of growth in Western countries. 52 And economists estimate that differences in technological adoption patterns account for 80 percent of the difference between rich and poor nations. 53 Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 908-914). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
Technological freedom essential to human progress and human flourishing
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
Indeed, in making the case against the stasis mentality and precautionary principle– based policies, we can link dynamism and permissionless innovation to the expansion of culural and economic freedom throughout history. There is a symbiotic relationship between freedom and progress. In his book History of the Idea of Progress, Robert Nisbet writes of those who adhere to “the belief that freedom is necessary to progress, and that the goal of progress, from most distant past to the remote future, is ever-ascending realization of freedom.” 1 That is the vision I have attempted to outline and defend here. Freedom, including technological freedom, is essential to achieving progress and human flourishing. Few scholars better connected the dots between freedom and progress than F. A. Hayek and Karl Popper, two preeminent 20th century philosophers of history and politics. “Liberty is essential in order to leave room for the unforeseeable and the unpredictable,” Hayek teaches us. “[ W] e want it because we have learned to expect from it the opportunity of realizing many of our aims. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it.” 2 In a similar vein, Popper explains that “the human factor is the ultimately uncertain and wayward element in social life and in all social institutions. Indeed this is the element which ultimately cannot be completely controlled by institutions … for every attempt at controlling it completely must lead to tyranny; which means, to the omnipotence of the human factor— the whims of a few men, or even one.” 3 Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 2373-2375). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
Permissionless innovation supports technological advancement needed to improve the quality of life
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
We are now blessed to live in a world of unprecedented information abundance and diversity. We enjoy a wealth of ubiquitous, instantly accessible information and media in which we can access and consume whatever content we want, wherever, whenever, and however we want it. Better yet, we have access to communications networks and media platforms that give all men, women, and children the ability to be publishers and express themselves to the entire planet. But we ain’t seen nothin’ yet. We stand on the cusp of the next great industrial revolution and developments that could vastly enhance the welfare of people across the planet. “Inventions previously seen only in science fiction, such as artificial intelligence, connected devices and 3D printing, will enable us to connect and invent in ways we never have before,” notes a recent World Economic Forum report on the amazing technological revolutions that could lie ahead. 4 Yet those technological advancements will happen only if we preserve the fundamental value that has thus far powered the information age revolution: “permissionless innovation,” which refers to the general freedom to experiment and learn through ongoing trial-and-error experimentation. 5 Just as permissionless innovation powered the Internet and the modern digital revolution, it can bring dynamism to the rest of the economy as well. There is no reason this ethos should be restricted to today’s information sector. Unfortunately, while many Internet pundits and advocates often extol the permissionless innovation model for the information sector, they ignore its applicability outside that context. That is unfortunate, but we can and should expand the horizons of permissionless innovation in the physical world, too. We need the same revolutionary approach to new technologies and sectors, whether based on bits (the information economy) or atoms (the industrial economy). The various case studies outlined in this book will show how the need to seek regulatory permission can harm innovation in the physical world, not just the virtual one. The costs of this forgone innovation are high. Policymakers should not impose prophylactic restrictions on the use of new technologies without clear evidence of actual, not merely hypothesized, harm. 6 More often than not, humans adapt to new technologies and find creative ways to assimilate even the most disruptive innovations into their lives. Certainly, complex challenges exist— e.g., concerns related to safety, security, privacy, economic disruption— as they always do with new inventions. 7 But there are good reasons to be bullish about the future and to believe that we will adapt to it over time. A world of permissionless innovation will make us healthier, happier, and more prosperous— if we let it. Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 225-228). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
Permissionless innovation built the Internet and it’s about the creativity of the human mind
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
Vint Cerf, one of the fathers of the Internet, credits permissionless innovation for the economic benefits that the net has generated. 8 As an open platform, the Internet allows entrepreneurs to try new business models and offer new services without seeking the approval of regulators beforehand. But permissionless innovation means much more than that. It refers to the tinkering and continuous exploration that takes place at multiple levels— from professional designers to amateur coders; from large content companies to dorm-room bloggers; from nationwide communications and broadband infrastructure providers to small community network-builders. Permissionless innovation is about the creativity of the human mind to run wild in its inherent curiosity and inventiveness. In other words, permissionless innovation is about freedom. Permissionless innovation, notes Larry Downes, “advances policies that encourage private experimentation and investment, such as exempting emerging technologies, whenever possible, from restrictions and taxes accreted over long periods of time to resolve forgotten problems generated by earlier innovations.” 9 Some scholars and policymakers speak of innovation policy as if it is simply a Goldilocks-like formula that entails tweaking various policy dials to get innovation just right. 10 In reality, what innovation policy comes down to is a question of values and attitudes. Cultural attitudes, social norms, and political pronouncements profoundly influence opportunities for entrepreneurialism, innovation, and long-term growth. 11 For progress and prosperity to be possible, a sociopolitical system must respect what economic historian Deirdre McCloskey refers to as the “bourgeois virtues” that incentivize invention and propel an economy forward. 12 “A big change in the common opinion about markets and innovation,” she has argued, “caused the Industrial Revolution, and then the modern world. … The result was modern economic growth.” 13 That was true for the Industrial Revolution as well as the information revolution. And it will be just as true for the next great technological revolution— again, if we let it. 14 Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 253-254). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition. Global Stability/Reduced Risk of Global War
Acceptance of risk taking critical to innovation
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
For innovation and growth to blossom, entrepreneurs need a clear green light from policymakers that signals a general acceptance of risk-taking— especially risk-taking that challenges existing business models and traditional ways of doing things. 17 That’s permissionless innovation in a nutshell, and if there was one thing policymakers could do to help advance long-term economic growth, it is to first commit themselves to advancing this ethic and making it the lodestar for all their future policy pronouncements and decisions. Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 259-263). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
Eliminating restrictions on the Internet cause it to flourish
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
During the time when the Internet remained a noncommercial platform, it served mostly as a closed communications club reserved for academics, a handful of technologists and engineers, and assorted government bureaucrats. Undoubtedly, the restrictions on commercial use of the Internet were thought to have served the best of intentions. But public policies should never be judged by intentions but rather by their actual real-world results. 34 In this case, those who imposed restrictions on commercial use of the Internet probably were simply unable to imagine the enormous benefits that would be generated by allowing it to become an open platform for social and commercial innovation. Regardless, the opportunity costs of those prohibitions were enormous. “Opportunity cost” refers to the forgone benefits associated with any choice or action. 35 When we think about technological innovation, it is vital to keep the concept of opportunity cost in mind. Every action— especially political and regulatory action— has consequences. The 19th-century French economic philosopher Frédéric Bastiat explained the importance of considering the many unforeseen, second-order effects of economic change and policy. 36 Many pundits and policy analysts pay attention to only the first-order effects— what Bastiat called “the seen”— and ignore the subsequent and often “unseen” effects. When commercial uses of an important resource or technology are arbitrarily prohibited or curtailed, the opportunity costs of such exclusion may not always be immediately evident. Nonetheless, those unseen effects are very real and have profound consequences for individuals, the economy, and society. In the case of the Internet, a huge opportunity cost was associated with the initial limitations on its use and its commercial development. Only when this mistake was corrected in the early 1990s through the commercial opening of the net did the true opportunity costs of the original restrictions become evident. As soon as the net was commercialized, social and economic activity online exploded in previously unimaginable ways. New innovations like email, listservs, and web browsers quickly gained widespread adoption. Websites— personal, corporate, and otherwise— multiplied rapidly. E-commerce took off. Sophisticated search engines emerged. And then blogs, social networks, smart-phones, tablets, mobile applications, and various other digital devices and services developed so rapidly that it became hard to keep track of them all. 37 These innovations were able to flourish because our default position for the digital economy was “innovation allowed” or permissionless innovation. No one had to ask anyone for the right to develop these new technologies and platforms. Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 331-334). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
Framework – “Precautionary Principle Good” Answers
Precautionary principle crushes societal advancement
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
The problem with letting such precautionary thinking guide policy is that it poses a serious threat to technological progress, economic entrepreneurialism, social adaptation, an long-run prosperity. 27 If public policy is guided at every turn by the precautionary principle, technological innovation is impossible because of fear of the unknown; 28 hypothetical worst-case scenarios trump all other considerations. 29 But we lose something important when we regulate against imaginary problems. 30 Social learning and economic opportunities become far less likely, perhaps even impossible, under such a regime. 31 In practical terms, the precautionary principle results in fewer services, lower-quality goods, higher prices, diminished economic growth, and a decline in the overall standard of living. 32 This is why, to the maximum extent possible, the default position toward technological experimentation should be “innovation allowed,” or permissionless innovation. 33 If we hope to prosper both as individuals and as a society, we must defend the general freedom to experiment and learn through trial and error, and even to fail frequently while doing so. As will be noted in more detail below, preemptive and precautionary policy constraints should generally be reserved for circumstances in which immediate and extreme threats to human welfare exist. Stated differently, when it comes to new forms of technological innovation, we need to adopt an “anti– precautionary principle” mindset. Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 593-595). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
We can’t freeze experimentation
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
In most cases, therefore, we should let trial-and-error experimentation continue because “experimentation is part and parcel of innovation” and the key to social learning and eonomic prosperity. 75 If we froze all forms of technological innovation in place while we sorted through every possible outcome, no progress would ever occur. “Experimentation matters,” notes Harvard Business School professor Stefan H. Thomke, “because it fuels the discovery and creation of knowledge and thereby leads to the development and improvement of products, processes, systems, and organizations.” 76 Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 749-754). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
Precautionary principle undermines innovation
Adam Thierer, Senior Research Fellow, Mercatus Center at George Mason University, The Internet of Things and Wearable Technology: Addressing Privacy and Security Concerns without Derailing Innovation, 21 RICH. J.L. & TECH. 6 (2015), http://jolt.richmond.edu/v21i2/article6.pdf
Precautionary principle thinking is often discussed in the context of IoT. Recall, for example, Calo’s hypothetical rule that “limits the collection of information about consumers in order to reduce asymmetries of information.”203 Although Calo does not endorse the adoption of such a rule at this time, the cost of such a rule and comparable regulatory proposals should be taken into account and subjected to a strict benefitcost analysis. 204 Alleviating all “information asymmetries” would be impossible without sweeping and constant regulatory interventions. If such precautionary regulation were imposed on IoT technologies, it could stifle the provision of devices and services that could substantially improve consumer welfare.2
Answers to: IoT Doesn’t Exist
IoT exists now
Scott Pepper, Professor of Law, University of Colorado School of Law, August 2015, Regulating the Internet of Things: First Steps, http://www.texaslrev.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Peppet-93-1.pdf
First, the sensor devices that together make up the Internet of Things are not a science-fiction future but a present reality. Internet of Things devices have proliferated before we have had a chance to consider whether and how best to regulate them. Sales of fitness trackers such as Fitbit and Nike+ FuelBand topped $300 million last year, and consumer sensor devices dominated the January 2014 International Consumer Electronics Show.30 The hype is real: such devices are revolutionizing personal health, home security and automation, business analytics, and many other fields of human activity. The scant legal work addressing such devices has largely assumed, however, that the Internet of Things is still in its infancy in a research laboratory, not yet ready for commercial deployment at scale.31 To counter this misperception and lay the foundation for considering the current legal problems created by the Internet of Things, Part I presents a typology of consumer sensors and provides examples of the myriad ways in which existing Internet of Things devices generate data about our environment and our lives
General Benefits
General benefits to the IoT
Suny Cortland, The Internet of Things, https://sites.google.com/a/cortland.edu/the-internet-of-things/advantages
There are many advantages of incorporating IoT into our lives, which can help individuals, businesses, and society on a daily basis. For individuals this new concept can come in many forms including health, safety, financially, and every day planning. The integration of IoT into the health care system could prove to be incredibly beneficial for both an individual and a society. A chip could be implemented into each individual, allowing for hospitals to monitor the vital signs of the patient. By tracking their vital signs, it could help indicate whether or not serious assessment is necessary. With all of the information that is available on the Internet, it can also scare people into believing they need more care than what is really needed. Hospitals already struggle to assess and take care of the patients that they have. By monitoring individual’s health, it will allow them to judge who needs primary attention. The Internet of Things can also assist people with their personal safety. ADT, which is a home security system, allows individuals to monitor their security systems at home through their phones, with the ability to control it. Also, another technology that has already been released is GM OnStar. This is a system that is embedded in GM cars that can detect if a crash has occurred and it automatically calls 9-1-1. It can also track the movement of the car.
IoT can also function as a tool that can save people money within their households. If their home appliances are able to communicate, they can operate in an energy efficient way. Finally, IoT can assist people with their everyday plans. A very interesting example that was given in a video was the communication between many devices that automatically adjusted to let an individual sleep in. Although this may sound unimportant, the misusage of time costs us “$135 billion a year” (Koreshoff, 2012). By allowing physical devices to communicate, it is taking the data that is individually collected, sharing it, and then translating the information into ways to make our current systems more efficient.
Businesses can also reap many benefits from the Internet of Things. IoT can be useful in many different categories including asset tracking and inventory control, shipping and location, security, individual tracking, and energy conservation. As mentioned before, IoT allows for the communication between devices, commonly referred to as Machine-to-Machine (M2M) communication. With this being possible, physical devices are able to communicate to people letting them know their condition and where it is located. Devices such as trucks or ships allow for the maximum capacity to be filled by communication amongst devices and then relaying that information to a person to capitalize on the data supplied. All of these combined maximize revenue by cutting cost of inefficiencies within the business. A specific example from “A Successful ‘Internet of Things’ Hinges on M2M” article, is the operation of Nestles Nespresso Coffee Machine, which has “the ability to monitor factors such as temperature setting, vibration, and pressure helps ensure quality output, potentially leading to greater customer satisfaction and continued repeat business” (Frenzel, 2012). Although the idea seems quite simple, it can be very advantageous for a company to utilize the IoT to ensure quality service is given to their customers.
Another advantage of IoT is the ability to track individual consumers and targeting these consumers based on the information supplied by the devices. In a way, it provides a more “personalized” system that could potentially increase business sales and increases their demographic. Additionally, with the increased amount of devices connected to the Internet the Smart Grid expands, conserving more energy (Frenzel, 2012). Devices can make decisions and adapt without human guidance to reduce their energy usage. The IoT has many advantages to businesses, individuals, consumers, the environment, and society, but as with any technology, there are always repercussions and controversies that arise.
Economy
IoT generates trillions in economic activity
Thierer & Castillo, June 15, 2015, Adam Thierer is a senior research fellow with the Technology Policy Program at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He specializes in technology, media, Internet, and free-speech policies, with a particular focus on online safety and digital privacy. His latest book is Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom. Thierer is a frequent guest lecturer, has testified numerous times on Capitol Hill, and has served on several distinguished online safety task forces, including Harvard University’s Internet Safety Technical Task Force and the federal government’s Online Safety Technology Working Group. He received his MA in international business management and trade theory at the University of Maryland. Andrea Castillo is the program manager of the Technology Policy Program for the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and is pursuing a PhD in economics at George Mason University. She is a coauthor of Liberalism and Cronyism: Two Rival Political and Economic Systems with Randall G. Holcombe and Bitcoin: A Primer for Policymakers with Jerry Brito. Castillo received her BS in economics and political science from Florida State University, PROJECTING THE GROWTH AND THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE INTERNET OF THINGS, https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/IoT-EP-v3.pdf
In a testimony before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Thierer highlighted that industry research groups have published several recent analyses that project the economic and social bene ts of IoT technologies. While the methodologies, speci c technologies analyzed, and nal gures among these studies vary, they all indicate an industry consensus that the coming decades will be characterized by the introduction of billions of “smart” devices, millions of job opportunities, and trillions of dollars in economic growth and cost savings. The total number of connected devices in use globally—including such items as smart home appliances, “wearables,” smart metering systems, and autonomous vehicles—is projected to grow from 10 billion in 2013 to anywhere from 19 billion to 40 billion by 2019. The cost savings and productivity gains generated through “smart” device monitoring by 2019. The cost savings and productivity gains generated through “smart” device monitoring and adaptation are projected to create $1.1 trillion to $2.5 trillion in value in the health care sector, $2.3 trillion to $11.6 trillion in global manufacturing, and $500 billion to $757 billion in municipal energy and service provision over the next decade. The total global impact of IoT technologies could generate anywhere from $2.7 trillion to $14.4 trillion in value by 2025.
IoT will create trillions in value
Thierer & Castillo, June 15, 2015, Adam Thierer is a senior research fellow with the Technology Policy Program at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He specializes in technology, media, Internet, and free-speech policies, with a particular focus on online safety and digital privacy. His latest book is Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom. Thierer is a frequent guest lecturer, has testified numerous times on Capitol Hill, and has served on several distinguished online safety task forces, including Harvard University’s Internet Safety Technical Task Force and the federal government’s Online Safety Technology Working Group. He received his MA in international business management and trade theory at the University of Maryland. Andrea Castillo is the program manager of the Technology Policy Program for the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and is pursuing a PhD in economics at George Mason University. She is a coauthor of Liberalism and Cronyism: Two Rival Political and Economic Systems with Randall G. Holcombe and Bitcoin: A Primer for Policymakers with Jerry Brito. Castillo received her BS in economics and political science from Florida State University, PROJECTING THE GROWTH AND THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE INTERNET OF THINGS, https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/IoT-EP-v3.pdf
. Recent projections of the economic and social bene ts of networked IoT technologies sug- gest that their technological and economic impact will be signi cant. These analyses pre- dict that tens or even hundreds of millions of networked devices will proliferate globally as industrial and infrastructure inputs, consumer wearables, smart home technologies, and automated transportation services. The economic gains in terms of cost savings and enhanced productivity growth are projected to be enormous. Trillions in value will be created through cost-savings through preventative health care, minimized accidents, patient monitoring, e - ciencies in manufacturing and distribution, and seamless home and municipal infrastructure improvements.
IoT will add $20 trillion to the global economy by 2020
n 2015, there were an estimated 10B connected devices globally and the impact of these connected smart devices on the global economy was estimated at close to $2T. According to a report from the McKinsey Global Institute, connected devices are expected to increase to 75B units in the next 5 years adding close to $20T to the global economy by 2020.
Trillions per year in economic value
Adam Thierer, Senior Research Fellow, Mercatus Center at George Mason University, The Internet of Things and Wearable Technology: Addressing Privacy and Security Concerns without Derailing Innovation, 21 RICH. J.L. & TECH. 6 (2015), http://jolt.richmond.edu/v21i2/article6.pdf
The benefits associated with these developments could be enormous.56 McKinsey Global Institute researchers estimate the potential economic impact of IoT to be $2.7 trillion to $6.2 trillion per year by 2025, 57 and IDC estimates that this market will grow at a compoundannual growth rate of 7.9% between now and 2020, to reach $8.9 trillion.58 Cisco analysts estimate that IoT will create $14.4 trillion in value between 2013 and 2022.59 Many other analysts and consultancies have predicted similar growth and economic impacts60 and agree with Michael Mandel, chief economic strategist at the Progressive Policy Institute, who argues that the positive effects could reverberate throughout the economy. 61 Mandel believes that “[W]e are at the next stage of the Internet Revolution” and that “the Internet of Everything has the potential to help revive the high-growth economy.”6
Economic impact already felt
Adam Thierer, Senior Research Fellow, Mercatus Center at George Mason University, The Internet of Things and Wearable Technology: Addressing Privacy and Security Concerns without Derailing Innovation, 21 RICH. J.L. & TECH. 6 (2015), http://jolt.richmond.edu/v21i2/article6.pdf
According to the research firm Canalys, there was a 700% growth in the market for wearable smart bands in the second half of 2013 over the first half.85 IDC reports that “wearables took a huge step forward over the past year and shipment volumes will exceed 19 million units in 2014, more than tripling last year’s sales. From there, they predict that the global market will swell to 111.9 million units in 2018, resulting in a CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of 78.4%.” 86 “Hearables”, or small devices worn in the ear to provide users with relevant real-time information, are also expected to become a major part of the wearable market in coming years.87 One wireless analyst estimates that such “smart earbuds” could constitute a $5 billion market by 2018.88
IoT effects all vertical sectors
Dawn Reiss, August 13, 2016, US News, How to Invest in the Internet of Things, http://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/2016-04-13/how-to-invest-in-the-internet-of-things
IoT affects all verticals of the global economy. There are certain segments that are moving more rapidly into this space. Manufacturing, health care, logistics and consumer electronics are all big players. Several experts point to manufacturing as the biggest. "It's less glamorous, but they are probably taking greater advantage of it than anybody else," says Kramer, who was in Hanover, Germany, helping a manufacturing client implement Internet of Things technology and strategy into its supply chain, logistics and product development.
A lot of Internet of Things technology sets are also coming from the business-to-consumer market, says Fred Guelen, CFO and president of North American operations of Planon Software in Boston. "Look at what companies are paying attention to the technologies used by consumers in their ordinary lives that are communicating with each other," he says.
Trillions of dollars in value in health care and manufacturing
Intel, no date, A Guide to the Internet of Things, http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/internet-of-things/infographics/guide-to-iot.html
Most IoT smart devices aren’t in your home or phone—they are in factories, businesses, and healthcare.
Why? Because smart objects give these major industries the vital data they need to track inventory, manage machines, increase efficiency, save costs, and even save lives. By 2025, the total global worth of IoT technology could be as much as USD 6.2 trillion—most of that value from devices in health care (USD 2.5 trillion) and manufacturing (USD 2.3 trillion).2
IoT lowers operating costs, increases productivity, expands to new markets
John Greenough, July 18, 2016, Business Insider, How the “Internet of Things” will impact consumers, governments, and businesses in 2016 and beyond, http://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-internet-of-things-market-will-grow-2014-10
• Businesses will be the top adopter of IoT solutions. They see three ways the IoT can improve their bottom line by 1) lowering operating costs; 2) increasing productivity; and 3) expanding to new markets or developing new product offerings.
IoT will trigger massive economic growth
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
The benefits associated with these developments will be enormous. McKinsey Global Institute estimates a total potential economic impact of $ 3.9 trillion to $ 11.1 trillion a year by 2025,61 and the consultancy IDC estimates that this market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.9 percent between now and 2020, to reach $ 8.9 trillion. 62 Cisco analysts estimate that the IoT will create $ 14.4 trillion in net profit between 2013 and 2022, which amounts to an increase in global corporate profits by roughly 21 percent. 63 The biggest impacts will be in health care, energy, transportation, and retail services. Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 406-411). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
Sharing economy will trigger massive growth
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
One of the best examples of permissionless innovation in action today can be seen in the “sharing economy.” 131 Just a few years ago, most of us had not heard the term, but tody the sharing economy is growing faster than ever and offering consumers a growing array of new service options. 132 Sadly, some policymakers want to stop this sort of pro-consumer permissionless innovation. 133 The sharing economy refers to any marketplace that uses the Internet to bring together distributed networks of individuals to share or exchange otherwise underutilized assets. 134 It encompasses all manner of goods and services shared or exchanged for both monetary and nonmonetary benefit. In practice, the sharing economy is enabling people to take things they may not be using all the time (cars, bedrooms, etc.) and put them to productive use by finding others in need of those items. PricewaterhouseCoopers “estimates that global revenue from sharing economy companies, which is roughly $ 15 billion today, will increase to around $ 335 billion by 2025.” 135 Almost every sector of the US economy is now affected by the sharing economy, especially transportation, hospitality, dining, goods, finance, and personal services. Policymakers have acknowledged the benefits of the sharing economy. The Federal Trade Commission recently noted that “the development of the sharing economy can stimulate economic growth by encouraging entrepreneurship and promoting more productive and efficient use of assets.” 136 More specifically, the sharing economy is creating value for both consumers and producers in five ways. 137 First, by giving people an opportunity to use others’ cars, kitchens, apartments, and other property, it allows underutilized assets or “dead capital” to be put to more productive use. 138 Second, by bringing together multiple buyers and sellers, it makes both the supply and demand sides of its markets more competitive and allows greater specialization. 139 Third, by lowering the cost of finding willing traders, haggling over terms, and monitoring performance, it cuts transaction costs and expands the scope of trade. Fourth, by aggregating the reviews of past consumers and producers and putting them at the fingertips of new market participants, it can significantly diminish the problem of asymmetric information between producers and consumers. 140 Last, by offering an “end-run” around regulators who are captured by existing producers, it allows suppliers to create value for customers long underserved by those incumbents that have become inefficient and unresponsive because of their regulatory protections. 141 Some policymakers insist that existing regulations should be strictly applied to new sharing economy innovators and that they should seek permission before disrupting existing sectors. 142 But while those traditional regulations may have been put on the books with the best of intentions in mind, ultimately, they failed to protect consumers and simply advanced producer welfare instead. 143 Competition and ongoing innovation are always the better consumer protections, and the rise of the sharing economy has made that possible. This may explain why, when recently surveyed by PricewaterhouseCoopers, 64 percent of US consumers said that in the sharing economy, peer regulation is more important than government regulation. 144 Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 1920-1927). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
Economy Impacts
Economic growth critical to reduce poverty, disease, death, and avoid war
Strauss-Kahn 9 – Managing Director @ IMF¶ Dominique, “Economic Stability, Economic Cooperation, and Peace—the Role of the IMF,” http://www.¶ imf.org/external/np/speeches/2009/102309.htm
Let me stress that the crisis is by no means over, and many risks remain. Economic activity is still dependent on policy support, and a premature withdrawal of this support could kill the recovery. And even as growth recovers, it will take some time for jobs to follow suit. This economic instability will continue to threaten social stability.¶ The stakes are particularly high in the low-income countries. Our colleagues at the United Nations and World Bank think that up to 90 million people might be pushed into extreme poverty as a result of this crisis. In many areas of the world, what is at stake is not only higher unemployment or lower purchasing power, but life and death itself. Economic marginalization and destitution could lead to social unrest, political instability, a breakdown of democracy, or war. In a sense, our collective efforts to fight the crisis cannot be separated from our efforts guard social stability and to secure peace. This is particularly important in low-income countries.¶ War might justifiably be called “development in reverse”. War leads to death, disability, disease, and displacement of population. War increases poverty. War reduces growth potential by destroying infrastructure as well as financial and human capital. War diverts resources toward violence, rent-seeking, and corruption. War weakens institutions. War in one country harms neighboring countries, including through an influx of refugees.¶ Most wars since the 1970s have been wars within states. It is hard to estimate the true cost of a civil war. Recent research suggests that one year of conflict can knock 2-2½ percentage points off a country’s growth rate. And since the average civil war lasts 7 years, that means an economy that is 15 percent smaller than it would have been with peace. Of course, no cost can be put on the loss of life or the great human suffering that always accompanies war.¶ The causality also runs the other way. Just as wars devastate the economy, a weak economy makes a country more prone to war. The evidence is quite clear on this point—low income or slow economic growth increases the risk of a country falling into civil conflict. Poverty and economic stagnation lead people to become marginalized, without a stake in the productive economy. With little hope of employment or a decent standard of living, they might turn instead to violent activities. Dependence on natural resources is also a risk factor—competition for control over these resources can trigger conflict and income from natural resources can finance war.¶ And so we can see a vicious circle—war makes economic conditions and prospects worse, and weakens institutions, and this in turn increases the likelihood of war. Once a war has started, it’s hard to stop. And even if it stops, it’s easy to slip back into conflict. During the first decade after a war, there is a 50 percent chance of returning to violence, partly because of weakened institutions.
Supply Chains
IoT will dramatically enhance supply chains
Greg Braun, March 25, 2016, Global Trade, How the Internet of Things Will Help Supply Chains, http://www.globaltrademag.com/global-trade-daily/news/how-the-internet-of-things-will-help-automate-supply-chains
One of the primary benefits the Internet of Things (IoT) will deliver for supply chain operations is improved visibility. End-to-end visibility has long been the holy grail of supply chain managers who know that it will enable efficiencies and drive down costs.
IoT applications will be so various that we cannot yet imagine what many of them will be.
What we do know is that in the realm of logistics the IoT is already proving to have useful applications. Ever since the invention of the concept, with the advent of RFID, the ability to track items and quickly take inventory was recognized as a massive boon.
And now, with everyday ordinary objects having the means to communicate with each other and with networks, visibility into supply chain operations is now simply a matter of deciding that you want it; the technology exists to deliver as much information as you likely could ever need.
As a recent Deloitte IoT research paper points out: “Modern supply chain management can be not only about getting products faster, cheaper, and of better quality but also about getting managers the right information at the right time, so that they can better make informed supply chain decisions.”
How can the Internet of Things bring value to dock operations and scheduling process?
At a busy distribution center there are costs associated with having trucks waiting around to be loaded or unloaded. Delays at the docks mean trouble for truck drivers who have limited hours in which to work, and get paid by the load. Chronic delays also can lead to poor relations with the carriers you count on to move your freight.
The lack of information about when shipments need to be loaded or unloaded makes efficiently scheduling of labor nearly impossible. Dock scheduling is not new, but with the availability of pinpoint-accurate, real-time tracking information, coupled with traffic congestion data, it has the potential to save companies big money in their logistics processes; especially for companies who don’t own the trucks and thus cannot leverage the benefits of a TMS.
You won’t have to rely on the human truck driver to check in with changes to his arrival time at the docks, but will get that information from an app that’s tracking his truck, allowing you to better manage your priorities and shuffle the arrivals at your docks automatically. Likewise, your own personnel who are at work can be readily located and notified of where they need to be, and when, using mobile apps linked to the central scheduling system.
We are seeing an increasing number of fully automated warehouses that de-palletize or palletize loads without human intervention. It may not be long until we see unmanned forklifts too. The day will come when companies will be able to automate the entire supply chain, providing efficient execution tools and visibility. This will be achieve not only by using traditional integration methods between information systems since complementary devices such as mobile technology and the Internet of Things will play a big part in this.
The demand is already there for tracking and auditing. Widely publicized programs, such as Farm-to-Fork, are initiatives by government agencies to augment consumer safety through better tracking and auditing tools. Importers are struggling to find cost efficient means to track and audit orders that are touched by several players. Perfect supply chain visibility is still difficult to achieve, but the potential for automating and tracking the entire ordering process is before us.
Wasted time and movements, lost productivity and inventory—these are all problems inherent in modern logistics operations that can be addressed through the use of IoT technologies.
Manufacturing
Chinese investing in IoT manufacturing
Bill Wasik, May 14, 2013, In the Programmable World, All Our Objects Will Act as One, https://www.wired.com/2013/05/internet-of-things-2/
In the industrial realm, there’s a similar dynamic at work but with even higher stakes. Massive US companies like IBM (through its Smarter Planet initiatives), Qualcomm, and Cisco all see ubiquitous connectivity as a way to sell more products and services—particularly Big Data–style analysis—to their large corporate customers. Chinese manufacturers have much the same idea, and the Chinese government is pumping hundreds of millions of dollars every year into so-called Internet of Things¬–based manufacturing. (This project kicked off a few years ago when China’s then premier Wen Jiabao put forward the following equation in a speech: “Internet + Internet of Things = Wisdom of the Earth.”) Global analysts look at all these developments and project that by 2025 there will be 1 trillion networked devices worldwide in the consumer and industrial sectors combined.
GE already using IoT in manufacturing
Bill Wasik, May 14, 2013, In the Programmable World, All Our Objects Will Act as One, https://www.wired.com/2013/05/internet-of-things-2/
Take one case in point: General Electric, which has been trying to apply the sensor revolution (what it calls the Industrial Internet) to 50 different projects across scores of businesses, from wind turbines to railroad locomotives to a pilot program with Mount Sinai Medical Center in New York that predicts, based on sensors in beds, when rooms will become available. But perhaps GE’s most remarkable application of this program has been to its own manufacturing process at the Durathon battery factory, completed last year in Schenectady, New York. Its biggest manufacturing challenge is the high tech ceramics that separate the electrodes inside the battery: Tiny variations in the mixing and firing process can lead to huge swings in quality and consistency of these ceramics. So the solution, GE’s team decided, was to engineer their way to consistency through data.
Step by step, they developed and refined their process using feedback from the machines. One crucial step was near the beginning, in mixing the powder that would eventually be pressed to form the ceramics. The team didn’t know the optimal mixing time needed to give that powder a perfectly even consistency that wouldn’t vary from batch to batch. And since the raw materials would themselves vary slightly—in density, for example, or moisture content—the mixing time would need to vary too. So, says Randy Rausch, a manager of manufacturing engineering at the plant, “we put a sensor on everything,” from the outside of the factory to the inside of the room to the inside of the vat to the innards of the machines. Eventually the team realized that the powder was ideally mixed when it reached a certain viscosity. The key sensor, it turned out, was inside the mixing apparatus itself: When it needed to draw more than a certain amount of power, indicating that the powder was at just the right thickness, the process was done.
In many ways, this is the most extreme possible example of a first-stage usage. GE estimates that this single factory generates some 10,000 data points every second, and using that data has allowed GE to eliminate the high defect rates that typically plague high tech ceramics. Yet it has done it through pure data analysis, not through the actual coordination of these low-level sensors and devices. Like the consumer-hardware makers linking up their products to distinguish them from ordinary toasters and refrigerators, GE is connecting its industrial components to solve a near-term business problem. But in the process, the company and its industrial brethren are laying the groundwork for a far deeper transformation.
Global Peace/Stability
Tech/government collusion to create global networks for the IoT produces global stability
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
So what is the right historical parallel? Governments and tech firms definitely collaborate on foreign policy. Tech firms often get their way, but not always. Users often feel tied to their technology providers. Social networks are not bound in the same ways nations can be. Thinking of the current state of technology affairs as a Westphalian set of national internets or a highly structured feudal system misses the point: networks are essentially made up of other networks. The pax metaphor does the most to describe the network system of organizations and information technologies that enforce a de facto stabilityin economic, political, and cultural engagement. A surprising stability has come from having giant technology firms and powerful nations colluding on how to sell the next generation of device networks to the rest of the world.We are entering a period of global political life that will be profoundly shaped by how political actors use the internet of things. Indeed, the internet of things will define, express, and contain this period. The capacities and constraints of political life have often been shaped by technological innovation— and vice versa. Technology and politics have an impact on each other and on how current events and future prospects should be situated in the context of the recent past. More devices come online each month, and progressively more people are connected through these digital networks. Now almost every aspect of human security depends on digital media and this internet of things. Responsibility for creating this internet of things still rests with all of us. We use social media, and few of us are diligent about maintaining our privacy. We do our computing in the cloud and communicate through mobile phones that we know are traceable and hackable. We trust immense amounts of data to private firms and governments. Most of us have grown up with an internet that mediates political conversations between people. Increasingly, politically revealing conversations occur between devices, often long after we’ve finished using them. Everyday objects we aren’t used to thinking of as networked devices will sense and shape the social world around them. Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (pp. 65-66). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
IoT networks minimize conflict and create stability, causing a net reduction in conflict
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
The pax technica is a political, economic, and cultural arrangement of social institutions and networked devices in which government and industry are tightly bound in mutual defense pacts, design collaborations, standards setting, and data mining. Over the past quarter-century we have learned a lot about the political impact of new information technologies. Given that our internet is evolving into an internet of connected things, it makes sense to apply what we know in some conservative premises. If these are the premises of the pax technica, what are the consequences— desirable or otherwise? We have begun an extended period of stability brought about by the dominance of an internet built and maintained by Western democracies. This expansive network of devices has allowed viral social movements that are massive, networked, leaderless, temporary, and multi-issue. Power flows to people and organizations that control digital media or that do creative things with information infrastructure. Political conflict and competition, in domestic and global contexts, occur over or through information technology. The internet is now standard issue as a weapon for elites seeking social control, and for activists seeking to solve collective-action problems. Conflict and competition are expressed through digital media, from start to finish. Historically, significant new information infrastructure has ushered in periods of prolonged stability. Reorganizing and rebuilding streets, reconsidering the layout of towns, investing in public transportation and communications systems have all had their payoffs in predictable interactions. This is part of what explains the rise of Rome and Britain. Rome’s roads provided the network that stitched together vast, conquered territories in a way that both defined the empire’s economy and demarked the core and periphery. Britain’s naval networks defined that empire’s economy, and connected people and resources in expansive ties of core and periphery. These empires were not free of violence, but they enjoyed sustained peace that allowed for incredible innovations alongside significant exploitation of conquered cultures. In the pax technica, the core and the periphery are not territorially assigned but socially and technologically constructed. Or, rather, what connects us is not fixed infrastructure like roads and canals, but pervasive devices with connected sensors. Stability will take the form of cyberdeterrence, new forms of governance, marginalized radicalism, more clans and clubs, and better security for more people. This doesn’t mean that the notions of the core and the periphery are irrelevant. Instead, core and periphery are relevant in terms of culture, status, language, media sophistication, information skills, and social capital. Such attributes may appear geographically distributed. Geography and infrastructure are certainly interdependent. What explains the distribution of social inequalities will increasingly be information access and skills, not physical access and territorial placement. If there are positive things we can say about the political stability that the internet of things can provide, what are some of the big threats to this stability? What are the best strategies for deepening the encouraging impact of social media over the negative consequences? Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 147). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
IoT turns the clash of civilizations into a device competition
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
Third Consequence: From a Clash of Civilizations to a Competition Between Device Networks Information activism is already a global ideological movement, and competition among device networks will replace a clash of civilizations as the primary political fault line of global conflict. Samuel Huntington famously divided the world into nine competing political ideologies, and described these as largely irreconcilable worldviews that were destined to clash. 16 What is more likely, in a world of pervasive sensors and networked devices, is a competition among device networks. The most important clash will be between the people and devices that push for open and interoperable networks and those who work for closed networks. The dominance of technology over ideology has two stabilizing consequences. The first is that information activism is now a global movement. Every country in the world has some kind of information-freedom campaign that allows for a consistent, global conversation about how different kinds of actors are using and abusing digital media. The second is that the diffusion of digital media is supporting popular movements for democratic accountability. Some Silicon Valley firms build hardware and software for dictators, and as I’ll show in the next chapter the serious threat to the pax technica comes from the rival network growing out of China. Many civil-society groups, even those not concerned with technology policy issues, now think of internet freedoms as human rights. People mobilize themselves on information policy, and civil-society groups have taken up technology standards as civic issues. The reasons are evident: civic leaders realize that their ability to activate the public shapes their political opportunities, and political elites realize that their capacity to rule depends on their control of device networks. The result is that every country in the world has an active tech community that is connected to a global alliance of privacy and information-freedom groups. Some of these activists started their work through the Global Voices network. 17 Others came to technology issues when their websites were attacked, or when their broadband connections got throttled by national ISPs. In terms of political opinion, they run the spectrum, and many are more interested in fast-streaming access to content about the Eurovision contest or distant soccer games than in political news. Some are libertarian, others progressive, some conservative, and some a mix of all three. But they are all often dedicated to pushing back on onerous government regulations over their internet access, and some participate in, or eagerly read about, technology issues from the Electronic Frontier Foundation and the Center for Democracy and Technology, tweet about the latest reports on their country from the Open Society Foundation or Reporters Without Borders, run Tor Project software quietly on their home equipment, and even participate in training sessions from the Tactical Technology Collective. Even the most banal technology standards in the poorest of countries get scrutinized by civic groups emboldened by John Perry Barlow’s “Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace,” or Hillary Clinton’s arguments that internet freedoms are a foreign policy priority. 18 When I visited Tajikistan a few years ago, the government simply didn’t have an employee who was in charge of public-spectrum allocation. The Aga Khan Foundation was providing a staff of three Western-educated computer science interns to help set policy. 19 Who would have thought that young civil-society actors would want to weigh in on how the public spectrum gets allocated, or want to attend specialized International Telecommunication Union meetings on internet protocols? Digital media have allowed civil society to bloom, even in the toughest of regimes. Telecommix, Anonymous, and CANVAS are committed to teaching civic leaders to be more tech savvy. 20 These groups include Nawaat in Tunisia and Piggipedia in Egypt. 21 Piggipedia may not bring many prosecutions of police torturers. But it breaks the fear barrier for citizens, helps victims find a way to respond, and reminds police that they should be accountable public actors. It used to be that the nuances of internet protocols were left to engineers concerned with system efficiency and business opportunities. A growing number of people, especially in the West, have a basic literacy about cookies, privacy, and censorship. This is a good thing. Information activism has developed a powerful ideology of its own, one that can shape the spending priorities of governments. A cadre of civic groups has real clout in technology policy. At the end of 2012, activists’ lobbying helped to prevent the ITU in Dubai from giving governments the power to interfere with the internet. In the United States, they defeated the antipiracy legislation known as the Stop Online Piracy Act because it went too far in protecting the interests of record labels and media companies. They took on the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement in Europe and worked aggressively on Brazil’s bill of internet rights, the Marco Civil. They have successfully campaigned against national firewalls in countries like Pakistan and aggressive cybercrime laws in the Philippines. Sympathizers and concerned citizens contribute the computing power of their home machines to Tor networks, particularly in times of crises for democracy movements in other countries. As Muzammil Hussain demonstrates, the pace of collaboration between the state department and Silicon Valley quickened after the Arab Spring. 22 In its aftermath, information activism has grown more sophisticated, and moved into a transnational environment, as demonstrated by Western democracy– initiated stakeholder gatherings. AccessNow, the main organization that lobbied corporations to keep communications networks running and pressured technology companies to stop selling software tools to dictators, organized the Silicon Valley Human Rights Conference in November 2011.23 The event was sponsored by Google, Facebook, Yahoo!, AT& T, Skype, and other technology firms, and it brought together the corporate leaders and foreign policy officials of major Western democratic nations to design policies for corporate social responsibility in the interest of international human rights. Similarly, the governments of the United States, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the European Union all created formal funding programs totaling more than $ 100 million to support digital activists working from within repressive regimes. At least seven conventions and conferences have been brokered by the foreign policy offices of key Western democratic countries since the Arab Spring. These meetings have brought together information activists and technology corporations. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has referred to this interesting mix of brokered meetings as “twenty-first-century statecraft.” Information activists increasingly find themselves working diplomatically with Western foreign policy makers on one hand and also targeting and lobbying businesses to stop building technologies for repressive regimes. In several European countries, the civic groups that formed under the banner of defending “internet freedoms” have successfully become political parties. The Pirate Bay, a file-sharing website, inspired widespread interest in intellectual-property issues. Enough interest, in fact, that small new political parties have popped up around the world, taken the name of the Pirate Party, and fielded candidates for elected office. By 2015, Pirate Parties had started in more than forty countries, and dozens of party members had been elected to city and regional governments in countries around the world. 24 In short, technology access, digital-cultural production, and information access have become civic issues. Civil-society groups from across the political spectrum are now concerned with privacy and information policy because these things have such an impact on their work. Even outside Europe, networks of like-minded technology advocates turned their online activism into Pirate Parties. 25 Significant numbers of voters have put Pirates into office, raising the visibility of technology-related issues and improving the public’s literacy on intellectual property law reform, public-spectrum allocation, and telecommunications standards setting. In some authoritarian regimes, where governments worked for decades to close down policy domains from open debate, discussion of technology policy was tolerated. In part, this was because many authoritarian states either had no capacity to set internet policies or did not think them worth controlling. This made technology access a civic issue that was safe to mobilize on— at first. With newfound skills in organizing, educating, and lobbying governments, these public-interest groups have been able to expand to other issue domains. People sometimes say that the internet doesn’t “cause” democracy. Or “it’s the people, not the mobile phones.” But people and their technology are often impossible to separate. Try to imagine your life without your mobile phone or your internet connection. Or try to tell the story of the Arab Spring, the Occupy movement, or any recent international social movement without mentioning digital media. You’ll find yourself with an incomplete story. Many of the people involved with these movements are eager to talk about the devices and media that are their tools of resistance. Their technology and their story go together. Political scientists have found similar causal narratives when they compare many different kinds of political changes over time: media use, as a causal factor conjoined with others, often provides the best explanation for political outcomes. In other words, economic wealth, social inequality, and education are robust predictors of democracy on their own. But their explanatory power grows when these variables are paired with media use. Social development is important, but understanding diffusion patterns is even more important. Predictors of spatial proximity, networks, and digital media have become among the most important parts of any democratization analysis. In some ways, the relationship between media exposure and democratization is pretty straightforward. Exposure to news and information from democracies raises the hopes of those living in authoritarian regimes. The introduction of device networks means more knowledge about the standard of living in Western democracies and the rise of incentives to create sustainable democracy at home. Of course, device networks get embedded in cultures, introducing different patterns of adoption and local variations in political values. The causal relationship is there. In fact, research suggests that it was media control that prevented democratic norms from spreading around the Middle East, and the introduction of digital media and social media that undermined these same controls. In the years leading up to the Arab Spring, whole cohorts of young people across North Africa were developing political identities under the very noses of aging elites who had ruled for decades. This was possible because these young people used their devices to build their own trust networks. Young people, and democracy advocates, will continue to do this with new device networks. A good many of these will be distributed networks in which people may not have met but have validated one another through personal ties and trusted cryptography. Fourth Consequence: Howard, Philip N. (2015-04-28). Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 168). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
IoT replaces military competition with network competition
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
The pax technica is an empire of people and devices. With sensors and activators embedded in more of the objects we produce, we must be conscious of how the constant flow of data can enrich our cultural, economic, and political lives. We must also learn from our recent experiences with politics and digital media, and be deliberate in the design of the internet of things. This is a technical peace in the sense that the major battles may no longer be fought by militaries but by corporations with competing technical standards and a vested interest in making systems interoperable or closed. The competition over infrastructure can be fierce, and the race to fill our lives with an internet of things may involve proprietary claims, independent subnetworks of people and devices, and technologies that do not play nice with each other. The fiercest political competition in the years ahead will be over the standards-setting process for device networks. Openness does not refer just to the firmware or to increased consumer choice in electronics. Howard, Philip N. (2015-04-28). Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (pp. 228-229). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
IoT Solves the Impact of State Collapse
IoT devices provide the civic infrastructure need to avoid the impacts to widespread state collapse
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
Second, when the modern state fails, the internet of things will provide governance. Or more accurately, people who live in places where governments collapse or fail to provide particular services use information technology to coordinate their own governance. These days, we also get immense amounts of data from failed states. So while failing or failed governments previously caused all sorts of problems for citizens and neighboring countries, now communities increasingly respond innovatively on their own, and more outsiders respond with more effective help. The result is often stability rather than anarchy.
CONTINUES
This cohort of aging dictators is a major source of instability today. When and how they leave power has an enormous impact on the stability of the countries they rule and the regions in which they have influence. The death of an authoritarian ruler often brings chaos for his subjects and neighboring countries. Even while they are alive, these authoritarian rulers provide important nodes in the global network of criminals. Even when dictators are young, they tend to generate another kind of problem for the world— they directly support aspiring criminals and other local despots. It’s in these failed and limited states that we tend to find pirates, drug lords, holy thugs, rogue generals, and many other kinds of miscreants. They are the key nodes in dirty networks. They represent the real threat to stability. Their networks are also surprisingly fragile when faced with a civic response. These rulers can operate surprisingly close to home and within parts of the West. In parts of Mexico, drug cartels staff the police force and military with their own people. Indonesia’s province of West Papua is rich in oil and natural gas. Immense palm oil plantations have sprung up, pushing aside the rich jungles that have been felled for timber. Foreign journalists have trouble getting in, people have trouble getting their stories out, and the army helps to manage resource extraction for political elites that support the national government. The army basically manages the entire territory. At any given time, the list of places where anarchy rules contains about a dozen countries. In Somalia, Chad, and Sudan, environmental degradation, ethnic and religious strife, illiteracy, and piracy prevent democratic and civic institutions from gaining much ground. In Zimbabwe, Congo, and Afghanistan, civil war, economic collapse, and organizations from doing much for the common good. Table 2 identifies some of the other places where governance is irregular and governments are incapable. The real challenge in international affairs has become the connection between these disparate places. Leaders in chaotic places sometimes provide hope to their populations. They are led by men who claim authority on the basis of spiritual leadership or military might. They manage small economic empires and they govern, in a fashion. They govern, sometimes in similar ways to elected politicians in democracies. They collect taxes, dispense justice, and write the history textbooks. 21 Sometimes they build bridges, maintain small armies, and work with civil-society groups. Sometimes the quality of life for average people living in controlled territories actually goes up— though the distribution of wealth tends to be through sycophants who support the ruling leader. The links between authoritarian regimes involve fuel, loans, and immigration (as well as drugs, smuggling, piracy, weapons sales, human trafficking, and money laundering). Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (pp. 95-96). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
Afghanistan produces at least 80 percent of the world’s heroin, and the country’s intelligence services have an internal problem with heroin addiction. 22 But in insurgent provinces, the Taliban is actually able to tax the drug lords because it commands key points in the networks of roads leading out of the region. For the drugs to pass, the smugglers need to tithe to the Taliban. 23 Even where the truckers are carrying legal produce, corrupt police can exact some on-the-spot “fines.” In Indonesia’s province of Aceh, the traffic cops have complex pricing schemes for illegal payments: truckers pay different rates based on the type of cargo and the size of the trucking business. 24 Sometimes it seems as if smugglers are behaving like governments, and at other times it seems as if governments and smugglers have simply merged operations. Criminal groups and government officials Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 96). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition. have long collaborated. Even democratic governments have had to collude with criminal gangs to smuggle guns to people fighting authoritarian regimes and to smuggle people out of those countries. Criminal gangs bribe and cajole government officials to turn a blind eye to their operations. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, it has been increasingly difficult for analysts even to tell the difference between criminal gangs and governments in some parts of the world. These “mafia states” are well-blended organizations in which the highest government officials are also the leaders of criminal enterprises. 25 Those officials dip into the public purse as needed for the defense of the enterprise. Indeed, they work to put official priorities and public policy in service of the enterprise. Bulgaria, Guinea-Bissau, Montenegro, Myanmar, Ukraine, and Venezuela are countries where crime watchers say organized crime and government are inextricably intertwined. 26 Criminal groups have also started using the latest communication technologies, including software encryption, mobile phones, and the internet, to improve Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (pp. 96-97). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition. their operations and to find new sources of income. Cybercrime cost the global economy some $ 113 billion in 2012, according to a leading provider of internet security. 27 This information infrastructure has allowed such a thorough binding between state and crime that the scale and scope of the problem are best thought of as a problem with national security implications and political solutions. Even strong states are increasingly thought to use their mafia connections as an arm of state power. The Russian mafia has been directed to supply arms to the Iranian military and Kurdish rebels in Turkey. 28 The lesson is that, for some countries, foreign policy and criminal aspirations are indistinguishable. Dirty networks connect extremely poor parts of the world, or connect the poorest communities of the rich world. The number of poor people in fragile states has remained fairly constant for almost twenty years— even considering the changing list of fragile states and the rapid population growth rates of poor communities. 29 Yet their global distribution is changing. The number of poor people in fragile and conflict-affected states has just surpassed the number in stable states. Impoverished countries are not automatically the most fragile ones. The very device networks that empower dirty networks also expose them to being mapped out. Individuals maintain mobile phones, often several phones in several countries, that allow for geolocation. They are global citizens, too. The Economist points out: Examples include Somali warlords with deep ties to the diaspora and Western passports; Congolese militia leaders who market the products of tin and coal mines to end-users in China and Malaysia; Tamil rebels who used émigré links to practice credit-card fraud in Britain; or Hezbollah’s cigarette smuggling in the United States. 30 Indeed, of the world’s dirty networks, ocean piracy may be the next to collapse. Somali piracy was costing the shipping industry and governments as much as $ 7 billion a year by 2011.31 With more than two hundred cases of successful hijackings per year in recent years, a network of naval task forces was established to deal with the problem. The European Union set up a flotilla; NATO provided another; and China, Japan, India, Iran, Russia, and Saudi Arabia coordinated a coalition of warships. These unlikely collaborators have been meeting four times a year to share tactics and intelligence. The Somali Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (pp. 97-98). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition. government helps, too— it wants to be rid of the pirates as much as any government. These days, Haradheere, the pirate haven, is reportedly devoid of Mercedes SUVs, prostitutes, and kingpins. Failed states are great at incubating dirty networks. With dictators dying off and the data trail of bad behavior growing, the biggest dirty networks are on the brink of collapse. Under the noses of these aging dictators, and in places that aren’t states, you can find a surprising bloom of civil-society groups. These groups are using digital media in creative ways to do the things their governments can’t or won’t. Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (pp. 98-99). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
The Democracy of Devices
However, we should not be too afraid of the world’s dirty networks, and we can be optimistic about their collapse. One obvious reason I’ve already noted is that the world’s dictators— who are important nodes in dirty networks— are an aging bunch. But big data, social media, and the internet of things provide deeper structural reasons to be hopeful. In the next chapter I offer five reasons— phrased as propositions— that I believe are safe propositions for how the internet of things will transform our political lives. The second is that the internet of things could help people take these dirty networks on, especially if it is configured in smart ways with the wisdom of what we’ve learned over the past twenty-five years. Fortunately, citizens and lawmakers around the world are already using device networks, in the form of social media and big data, to take down many dirty networks. Every year brings more and more examples of how illicit taxation, drug and people smuggling, and corruption get cleaned up. And the two key forces behind this success are social media and big data. When people see that their governments are weak, absent, or lousy, they make their own arrangements. Unfortunately, there are many parts of the world where the networks of criminals and corrupt officials are much stronger than the institutions of governance. Increasingly it appears that the best way to battle these dirty networks is with civic networks. The civic networks that equip themselves in smart ways with social media are the ones that started talking about corruption and pollution. They have started coordinating their own health and welfare campaigns. Governments were the primary mechanism for coordinating the public good. People like Eman Abdelrahman, Patrick Meier, and Primož Kovačič demonstrated that device networks could help people build surprisingly agile, effective, and resilient governance mechanisms. Abdel-rahman and her friends built their own network of dissatisfied young citizens in Egypt. Meier built his own network of international volunteers for reconstruction in Haiti. Kovačič built his own network of people within Kibera, to serve Kibera. Wherever and whenever governments are in crisis, in transition, or in absentia, people are using digital media to try to improve their conditions, to build new organizations, and to craft new institutional arrangements. Technology is enabling new kinds of governance. With social media, big data, and the internet of things, people are generating small acts of self-governance in a wide range of domains and in surprising places. Almost every country in the world now has a digitally enabled election monitoring initiative of some kind. Such initiatives are rarely able to cover an entire country in a systematic way, and they often need the backing of funding and skills from neutral outsiders like the National Democratic Institute. 32 But even the most humble projects to map voting irregularities, film the voting process, or crowd-source polling results help expose and document electoral fraud. Such projects allow citizens to surveil government behavior at a local level, though democracy at the national level isn’t necessarily an outcome. Still, the highlight reels of voter fraud can end up online, wearing down bad government. 33 Ushahidi is a user-friendly, open-source platform for mapping and crowd-sourcing information. These days, there are well over thirty-five thousand Ushahidi maps in thirty languages. 34 In complex humanitarian disasters, most governments and United Nations agencies now know they need to take public crisis mapping seriously. Ushahidi isn’t the only platform, though it is one of the most popular because of its crowd-sourced content and community of volunteers. Ushahidi has claimed many important victories in the battle to provide open records about the supply and demand of social services. In doing so, it has taught the United Nations about managing disaster relief with device networks, and has schooled the Russians about coordinating municipalities to deal with forest fires and lost children. 35 Technology exists in places we don’t usually look. Is it providing governance? Device networks haven’t entirely replaced government agencies, but people do use information technology to quickly repair broken institutions. Almost by definition, government means infrastructural control. Maps have historically constituted the index to how infrastructure is organized, and are therefore a key artifact of political power. FrontlineSMS, another cell phone enabled self-governance mechanism, helps to improve dental health in Gambia, organize community cleanups in Indonesia, and disseminate recommendations about reproductive health in Nicaragua. Just because a development project uses device networks in some way doesn’t guarantee good governance. When states fail to deliver governance goods, communities increasingly step up, digitally. What we’re talking about here is more than service delivery: it is the capacity of communities to set rules, stick to them, and sanction the people who break them. A sovereign state is one that can implement and enforce such policies. When states don’t have these capacities, a growing number of communities use digital media to provide services and do so in ways that amount to the implementation and enforcement of new policies. In other words, citizens with device networks are building new governance institutions. The real innovations in technology-enabled governance goods are in the domains of finance and health. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, banking institutions have failed to provide financial security or the benefits of organized banking to the poor. This stems from a lack of interest in serving the poor as a customer base, but also from a regulatory failure on the part of governments. In some settings, device networks have bolstered social cohesion to such a degree that when regular government structures break down, strong social ties can substitute. If the state is strong but the society weak, information technologies can do a lot to facilitate new forms of governance. 36 Today, wherever financial institutions have failed whole communities, mobile phones support complex networks of private lending and community-banking initiatives. M-Pesa is a money-transfer system that relies on mobile phones, not on traditional banks or the government. 37 Airtime provides an alternative currency to government-backed paper. Since several countries in Africa lack a banking sector with regulatory oversight, people have taken to using their phones to collect and transfer value. In the first half of 2012, M-Pesa moved some $ 8.6 billion, far from chump change. 38 Moreover, people make personal sacrifices to gain access to the technology needed to participate in this new institutional arrangement. iHUB research found that people would forgo meat if it would save enough funds to allow them to make a call or to send a text message that might eventually result in some economic return. 39 A typical day laborer in Kenya might earn a dollar a day, but the value of personal sacrifice for cell phone access amounts to eighty-four cents a week. 40 Two-thirds of Kenyans now send money over the phone. The service is popular precisely because financial institutions are corrupt or uninterested in serving the poor. Of course, this type of tech-based governance isn’t always positive. In India, prostitutes who used mobile phones to organize and protect themselves also talked about the pricing of their services. Over several years, the prostitutes consistently said that their income gets a big boost when they have access to mobile phones. 41 The application of digital media in their business has actually made prostitution a more lucrative career. In many parts of the Philippines, the government is unable to dispense justice in a consistent way, and can’t always follow through in punishing those convicted of serious crimes. So vigilante groups equipped with mobile phones and social-networking applications have organized themselves with their own internal governance structure to dispense justice. Over SMS they deliberate about targets, determine punishments and delegate tasks. Many countries have self-organizing vigilante groups like these that deliberate and unilaterally decide justice when they see the courts fail. Such groups are responsible for more than a thousand murders in the Philippines. 42 Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (pp. 103-104). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.These extrajudicial groups have exerted such an important global force that the United Nations appointed a special rapporteur to investigate the problem. The investigator reported on these networks across a dozen countries. In the Philippines alone, his reports covered the killing of leftist activists, killings by the New People’s Army, killings related to the conflicts in western Mindanao, killings related to agrarian reform disputes, killings of journalists, and revenge killings in Davao. 43 One of the key findings of such studies is that mobile phones have made it much easier for vigilantes to meet, deliberate, and act. Plenty of these technology-enabled governance systems are stillborn without some kind of state backing. Most of the Congo is unpoliced, and the government cannot track the movement of local militias. In the absence of institutions, the Voix de Kivus network documents sexual assaults, reports on the kidnapping of child soldiers, and monitors local conflicts. 44 The United Nations Organization for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, local NGOs, philanthropists, and the U.S. Agency for International Development study the reports. In this case, the organizers admit that there is little evidence of a governance system taking root. Reports of conflict are now credibly sourced and appear in real time, but nobody acts on the knowledge. In order to have serious impact, most social-media projects need to work in concert with governments. While some people use social media to provide governance goods, a few use social media to damage or destroy governance goods. Bots can be particularly useful to those who oppose social movements or want to prevent public alert systems from building trust. Bots can also be used to make some public figures appear to be very popular, or to discourage new institutions from growing. Indeed coming under attack is the unfortunate consequence of building successful trust networks that are civic, rather than managed by government or the private sector. 45 Still, citizens and civic groups are beginning to use bots, drones, and embedded sensors for their own proactive projects. Such projects, for example, use device networks to bear witness, publicize events, produce policy-relevant research, and attract new members.These may seem like isolated examples, but the reason such initiatives are important is that they are contagious. In the past ten years, we’ve gone from imagining that the internet might one day change the nature of governance to finding a plethora of examples of how this is done. Cell phone companies across Africa, Latin America, and Asia now offer asset-transfer systems, many of which are structured like M-Pesa. International aid can help to prop up a failing state and fund rebuilding operations in a state that has failed. Of course, people do the hard work of rebuilding. In the new world order, as people see their state falling apart, they pull out their mobile phones and make their own arrangements. Aging dictators may hold together dirty networks, but in many countries there are inspiring blooms of digital activism. Collaborative spirits and problem-solving technologies have been around for a while, but device networks have made creative forms of implementation possible and durable. People are bringing stability to the most chaotic of situations and to the most anarchic places on their own initiative, and with their own devices
Many failed states, triggering mass death and poverty. IoT can sove
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
Such spots are the first to fall apart during a political or military crisis. When pushed, central government leaders have to admit they have no control. They focus state resources on the capital cities they inhabit and the areas with national resources that generate wealth. For example, when Syrian rebels started scoring some real victories, Assad gave up his Kurdish region almost immediately, opening a vacuum for the brutal terrorist group ISIS to fill. The list of limited, failing, or failed states is long. Some governments aren’t functioning well, but that suits ruling elites just fine. Governments can be built to fail. Ruling elites extract the resources from the country and know full well that the government won’t act against them. The father-son dictators François “Papa Doc” and Jean-Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier ruled Haiti for a long time as dictators, and did not leave behind a government able to collect and spend taxes, protect property or human rights, or provide for collective welfare. Not all governments fail entirely, but even having part of a government fail causes problems. When the head of a particular state agency is siphoning off an entire ministry’s income to private accounts, the agency won’t be able to deliver governance goods. When governments become deeply entwined with criminal organizations, the failure becomes, in a sense, coordinated. It takes only a few corrupt officials to prevent military, police, and justice officials from doing their investigative work. Keeping the state failed becomes an essential service for the criminal enterprise. Unfortunately, such partially failed governments do provide some public good— often just enough to prevent outright rebellion and keep the criminal enterprise going. That’s why drug lords sometimes build roads and keep petty crime in their region under control. They won’t allow an environment of competition, so power grabs in other ministries or moves by rival drug lords are always tracked. And there are examples of significant armed forces that provide “governance goods” in the sectors they control: the Tamil Tigers, the IRA in Northern Ireland, and the Kosovo Liberation Army often functioned like the states they were fighting by running local courts and hospitals, and dispensing different kinds of welfare. The big tragedy is that all these different kinds of places are crowded with people. Almost by definition, slums are among the worst places to live, and about a billion people live in slums. 9 In the years since I was in Haiti, Cité Soleil has grown to at least half a million impoverished souls. Slums are places where water and electricity supplies are meager and economic opportunities are few. Because slums rarely have any political clout, their uncertain status exacerbates residents’ challenges. Health services are paltry, and food supplies inadequate. It’s not always clear who governs, and even when it is clear, it is rare to find a selfless slumlord. Mukuru kwa Reuben, for example, began as a labor camp outside of Nairobi, Kenya. It has been around for many decades: now home to well over a hundred thousand people. Politicians have little authority there, and there are no clear property rights for its residents. Rumors of eviction often motivate people, and the outcome can be violent. Not far away, ninety million live in Nigeria’s north, a region terrorized by Boko Haram. Almost every country in the Global South has such areas. Some would say that people there live under siege, others that they have the governments they want and deserve. In 2013, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimated that there were more than fifty-one million refugees living in camps around the world— the most ever. 10 In these liminal states of countries with lousy governments, big data, social media, and the internet of things can have a big impact. Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 84). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
Digital networks provide a way to organize political life where states have collapsed
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
Digital networks can expose connections that political boundaries do not. Two-thirds of the world’s population lives in countries without fully functional governments. Or more accurately, they live in communities not served by states with real governments. They live in refugee camps, breakaway republics, corporate-run free economic zones, gated communities, failed states, autonomous regions, rebel enclaves, or walled slums. Modern pirates dominate their fishing waters, and complex humanitarian disasters disrupt local institutions regularly. Organizing people to solve problems in such places is especially tough. In many of these places, rogue generals, drug lords, or religious thugs who report to no one (not on this earth, anyway) lead governments. Not having a recognizable government makes it tough to collaborate with neighbors on solving shared problems. These liminal states tend to support alternative dirty networks of criminal leaders, human traffickers, and local despots. These places have been growing in number, population, and territory. Criminal gangs, religious fundamentalists, and paramilitary groups that disrupt global peace thrive in these places. Yet these places are not always chaotic. In recent years, these locations— and there are many of them— have actually started showing that government is not the only source of governance. Information technologies have started to fill in for bad governments and become a substitute venue for public deliberation. While population growth is making these unstable parts of the world younger, many of the world’s dictators are only getting older. These days, the vast majority of the worst dictators are older than seventy or have serious health problems and no clear succession plans. Some of them control only tiny countries with few resources, but all are nodes in a network that support the growing global reach of the criminal gangs, religious fundamentalists, and paramilitary groups in their countries. Most of them came to power before the turn of the twenty-first century. As dictators, they faced and still face a digital dilemma— a difficult choice over whether to allow their citizens access to the internet. If they do not allow internet access, the population misses out on the economic opportunities; if they allow internet access, the population gets access to news and information from countries where people live more freely. As aging dictators, they already encounter more and more open challenges to their rule from rivals and democracy advocates; internet access can only exacerbate this challenge. What’s the connection between aging dictators, malformed governments, and the internet? As the internet and mobile phones arrived in many corners of the world, people began to realize that they could make connections that their government couldn’t or wouldn’t make. They started communicating with their neighbors. Young people who had never known a political alternative to authoritarianism started exploring their options. People began using social media to turn political problems into opportunities. The internet and mobile phones provided a new structure for political life. Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 73). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
IoT used to support governance
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
Second Premise: People Use Devices to Govern The state appeared as the dominant political form some five hundred years ago. As a way of organizing resources, states were good at building infrastructure. But for the first time the major infrastructure for social cohesion is not owned, managed, or even closely regulated by the state. Now, the information infrastructure that connects us is not monopolized by a particular political actor, or even by a particular kind of political actor. It exists and grows independent of any single political, economic, and cultural actor. When it comes to political power, people increasingly use technology to supplement or supplant government. When governments do succeed at something these days, it is often because they have used information technologies to serve citizens in creative new ways. Governments have lost the exclusive power to frame current events. When governments fail, people repair their institutions with digital media. Monterrey’s public alert systems and Kibera’s mapping project, discussed in Chapters 1 and 3, are examples of how this can work. James Scott is an anthropologist famous for demonstrating how much political power governments got from simply being able to define a public problem. 26 For example, a government derived its power from being able to draw maps because that made everyone think about national borders. Today, anyone with internet access can create, redraw, and share a map. And people have been using Ushahidi to draw entirely new maps that serve community needs over those of political elites. Internet users run their own public opinion polls when the government won’t call an election or the election is rigged. People use mobile phones to report a crisis, humanitarian or political. Every modern political crisis comes with clumsy attempts to control the way events and facts are disseminated online. When governments are on the verge of collapse, their leaders quickly figure out that they need to manipulate digital media to save themselves. Some countries, like Algeria, find that in a crisis they just don’t have the technical skills to mount much of a digital counterinsurgency strategy. When the Arab Spring arrived on Algeria’s doorstep, it simply had no centralized management system to coerce the country’s internet and mobile-phone companies to support the regime. Other countries find that they have to rely on outside firms to do their bidding. In Egypt, Mubarak required the assistance of London-based Vodafone to shut down national networks. Yet cutting off twenty million internet users and fifty-five million mobile-phone users only ratcheted up the political tension. The OECD estimates that this move cost the Egyptian economy $ 90 million a day for five days. Cutting off connections between friends and family— the majority of whom were not in the streets protesting— compounded public anger. If a government is working at peak performance, it can accurately frame a problem and help all the stakeholders prioritize solutions. If it isn’t working well, digital media allow stakeholders to investigate and propose alternatives. The internet of things will make it harder for a regime to control “things” attached to networks and choke off information flows. Moreover, stakeholders will have ever more ability to do their own research and craft their own policy proposals. People use the internet to compound attention on poorly performing governments. A group of researchers recently did a broad evaluation of this process. Merlyna Lim, for instance, found that authoritarian Egypt failed to respond to the communities of opposition that coalesced online well in advance of 2011, while Zeynep Tufekci and Chris Wilson illustrated that social media removed the disincentives for people to join Tahrir Square protests in early 2011.27 Catie Bailard showed that internet use predicted cynicism during a Tanzanian election. 28 Jonathan Hassid demonstrated that Chinese bloggers lead in the framing of issues when the ruling political and media elites do not appear to be acting responsibly; and Sebastián Valenzuela, Arturo Arriagada, and Andrés Scherman’s study of Facebook use in Chile illustrated that social media can effectively mobilize those who are not already involved in political activism. 29 Sometimes governments do figure out ways of using technology to improve themselves. Tech-savvy governments can often expose and stop corruption. In the Nigerian state of Bayelsa, a new biometric verification system of fingerprinting public employees and matching them with employment records confirmed twenty-five thousand legitimate employees but four thousand illegitimate ones. Most of the fraudulent employees were in the finance department. The local office of the national electoral commission had extra employees, including seventy people who claimed to work there but didn’t. An elected school board member employed ten members of his family— including underage children— in the board. In 2009, new systems like this allowed Nigeria to reduce its state salary budget by 20 percent. Similar smart databases cut the state procurement budget by 24 percent. Automated administrative systems did more to fight corruption than awareness campaigns and legal threats. 30 This doesn’t mean that governments can’t be innovative online. When states succeed at serving their publics these days, it’s increasingly because government bureaucrats have figured out creative ways of putting technology to work for the public good. Research shows that most civic projects that use information technology in creative ways need to be designed in concert with government. Markets can also serve as government mechanisms, and there is much evidence that device networks can help get rid of discrimination in markets. In India, clear price signals over mobile phones and dedicated apps have brought down prices and raised profits for fish markets in Kerala and soya beans in Madhya Pradesh. 31 Civic projects that are totally independent of government legitimacy often fail; on the flip side, government projects that have little or no buy-in from civil-society actors often fail. E-government services can bring transparency to procurement processes and make services more accessible to citizens. 32 Governments do all sorts of information-intensive tasks, well beyond service delivery. A government that doesn’t use information technology well loses its legitimacy quickly. Keeping track of ballots on election day, noting which ships are in the port, who’s in jail, and who needs a driver’s license are all logistical challenges. Effective technology use has come to define good governance, whether creative initiatives come from people or their governments. Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 123). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
Second Consequence: Governance Through the Internet of Things Digital governance solutions thrive when established institutions fail and networked devices are available. The important consequence of social-media mapping is that working around scheduled events like elections or humanitarian challenges help community leaders prepare for unscheduled events. Early mapping projects often flopped, but having a group meet and practice coding was useful practice. When projects flopped or had a negligible impact, organizers learned from their failure, such that when some other collective action problem arose— election violence or a sudden forest fire— the social capital and networked devices were available. What we learn from all those social media– mapping projects is that a few altruistic people with even modest technology skills can have a significant humanitarian impact. What do those projects teach us about the prospects for governance over an internet of things? These days, many experts speak of “governance goods” instead of governance. Governments are supposed to provide goods like working sewage lines and dependable electricity. They are supposed to provide more abstract benefits like trustworthy policies, reasonable banking rules, a postal service, and security from internal and external threats. In times of crises, governments are supposed to provide access to food and shelter. Device networks, when people are encouraged to be creative, can make a wide variety of governance systems more efficient. As discussed in Chapter 4, widespread networks of mobile phones have made food markets more efficient by eliminating waste and reducing wild variations in price. Even more widespread networks, of devices equipped with sensors, can provide more of such stability under the right conditions. In places where these goods and services aren’t provided, people make their own arrangements and fare as best they can. So if there are no trustworthy banks, for example— or no banks that will serve a particular community— mobile phones with banking apps provide an adequate substitute. For us in the West, mobile banking may not seem like an important governance good, because we have a host of stable banking options. In parts of Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, mobile banking systems provide much-needed governance goods. When states fail, people use digital media to build new organizations and craft their own institutional arrangements. Policy wonks in Washington, D.C., rarely use the term “failed states” anymore, but regardless of the term used, an unfortunate number of governments have ceased to function. Indeed, state failure doesn’t always take the form of a catastrophic and complete collapse in government. States can fail at particular moments, like election time, or in particular domains, such as in tax collection. But the mobile phone doesn’t take the place of your member of parliament or your government; it substitutes for governance. For example, in much of sub-Saharan Africa, banking institutions have failed to provide the poor with financial security or the benefits of organized banking. This is due to both a lack of incentive to serve the poor as a customer base and to a regulatory failure on the part of governments that try to establish stable and secure banking regulations for countries. These days, in response, whenever or wherever financial institutions have failed whole communities, mobile phones support complex networks of private lending and community-banking initiatives. Plenty of other large projects involve institutional innovation through technology, so let’s evaluate a few. M-Pesa is a money-transfer system that relies on mobile phones, not banks or the government. 8 Airtime itself has become a kind of transferable asset alternative to government-backed paper currency. 9 M-Pesa is popular in Kenya, but almost every country in Africa has an equivalent service because the banking sectors are either corrupt, too small, or just not interested in serving the poor. Since the “governance good” that can come from having a banking sector that gets some regulatory oversight is missing, people have taken to using their phones to collect and transfer value. Moreover, they make personal sacrifices to be able to have the technology to participate in this new institutional arrangement. Kenya-based iHUB Research found that people would forgo meat at mealtime if doing so would save enough funds to allow them to make a call or send a text message that might result in some return. 10 In the first half of 2012, M-Pesa moved some $ 8.6 billion, so this isn’t a boutique service. 11 Phone credits are currency that isn’t taxed by the government. To put this in some context: a typical day laborer in Kenya might earn a dollar a day, but the value of personal sacrifices for mobile-phone access amounts to 84 cents a week. 12 Two-thirds of Kenyans now send money over the phone. Politics is about who gets infrastructure, and maps are the highly politicized index of how people and resources are organized. Maps are a key artifact of political power. As discussed in Chapter 3, people in one of Nairobi’s uncharted slums made their own digital map specifically for the purpose of identifying public-infrastructure needs and levying their own taxes to help pay for urgent repairs. 13 Ushahidi, the online-mapping platform, can claim many important victories in the battle to provide open records about the demand and supply of social services. The political power that can come from digital media is the power to let people write and rewrite institutional arrangements. In some parts of the Philippines, the justice system has largely collapsed. So vigilante groups equipped with mobile phones and social-networking social-networking applications have organized themselves with their own internal governance system to dispense justice. They deliberate about targets and negotiate about tasks, and they are responsible for upward of ten thousand murders in Manila. And these days, when individuals feel that their government is not providing the governance goods needed in specific domains, digital media provides the workaround. Average Americans who felt that the U.S. government was not doing enough to support the Green Movement in Iran in 2009 could dedicate their own computational resources to democracy activists. Citizens unhappy with government efforts at overseas development assistance turn to Kickstarter.com to advance their own aid priorities. The next cyberwar might be started by Bulgarian hackers, the Syrian Electronic Army, or Iranian Basiji militias, but it might also be started by Westerners using basic online tools to launch their own Twitter bots. 14 Even when state failure is partial, or perhaps especially when state failure is partial, people increasingly organize to provide their own governance goods through the internet. For example, when the local government in Monterrey, Mexico, failed to provide public-warning systems about street battles between drug gangs and the military, desperate citizens developed their own public-communication systems. And once in a while there is an example of how governments in wealthy democracies can fail to provide governance at a key moment or in a key domain. During Hurricane Sandy, open-data maps both provided the public with emergency news and information and significantly expanded New York City’s capacity to serve citizens in crisis. 15 Government is not the only source of governance. Technologyled governance is not always a good thing. The internet of things will probably strengthen social cohesion to such a degree that when regular government structures break down, or weaken, they can be repaired or substituted. In other words, people will continue using the internet of things to provide governance when government is absent. Howard, Philip N. (2015-04-28). Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 162). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
Marketing
Ways IoT will Improve Marketing
Jamshed Dubash is an independent consultant focused on creating new business opportunities in the enterprise IoT/M2M market space by integrating wireless ‘edge’ sensors, big data, and advanced analytics to help companies increase operational efficiencies and reduce costs, January 15, 2016, Marketing Journal, Marketing and the Internet of Things: Are you Ready? http://www.marketingjournal.org/marketing-and-the-internet-of-things-are-you-ready-jamshed-dubash/
IoT also enables multi-way communications between brand and consumer, brand and object, consumer and object, and object and object. Here are some specific ways in which the Internet of Things will impact marketing:
• Consumer Behavior: With 75 billion connected devices projected by 2020 across the world, one of the key values will be better ‘real time’ insight about consumer behavior. What is the consumer doing, when and why are they buying or not buying?
• Better Personalization: Marketers will be able to interact with the consumer on a ‘real-time’ basis and personalize the customers’ in-store experiences. Today, multiple precise indoor location technology solutions can tell a marketer when a consumer has been lingering near a product for an extended period of time, but has not purchased. The marketer can then send a message on the consumer’s smartphone to provide help with making the selection or offering a promotion (provided the shopper has agreed to receive such messages).
• Instantaneous Customer Analysis: IoT will enable Customer Resource Management tools to gather and organize client data and also efficiently and accurately analyze that data providing actionable results regarding the consumer base. IoT devices can help understand where prospects are in their buying journey, and allow the marketer to serve them the right information to ultimately close a deal.
• Predictive Social Media: IoT is optimized for use with social media. Marketers who are able to predict the development of social communities, and target their efforts towards these communities, will be able to reach potential customers that may not have previously been available. With these better targeted campaigns, marketers will be able to identify and monetize new emerging trends. For example, Toyota’s Friend platform allows Toyota’s cars to use social networks to communicate with car owners – for example sending alerts when regular maintenance is due.
• Customer Intimacy: IoT gives firms an opportunity to rebuild an intimate connection with its customers. These same technologies – social media, cloud computing and the IoT have empowered customers too, enabling them to be able to provide useful feedback instantaneously. So, if a specific product isn’t living up to expectations, marketers won’t have to wait very long to find out about it, which means that they will be able to cut their losses much sooner.
• Connected Marketing: IoT will enable a connected API economy and marketplace that is an unprecedented opportunity for every player in the ecosystem. APIs unlock the business value of data residing in ‘things’ within an enterprise and enables the business value to be accessible to the outside world through simple web services. Manufacturers are building IoT developer stacks that can be accessed by other players to build applications for the marketplace. Salesforce.com generates 50% of its revenue through APIs, Expedia generates 90% and eBay 60% – all levering the ‘Connected Marketing’ phenomenon.
IoT enables multi-way communications between brand and consumer, brand and object, consumer and object, and object and object. Together, these factors lead to smarter, more relevant advertising and as increasing numbers of ‘things’ are being enabled with sensors and are being placed on the Internet, the face of advertising is going to change for both the marketer and the consumer.
oT is already among us with the Nike Fuelband, Google Glass, Fitbit, and the rumors of an iWatch from Apple -- all being popular examples of our increasingly connected lives.
As great as these are, these technologies are just scraping the surface. IoT will soon mean more than just smart refrigerators, environmental alerts, and wearable technology; IoT will have the enormous impact on the way we do business, specifically where marketing is concerned. Here’s 5 ways that IoT will improve marketing ROI:
Stuart Leung, March 20, 2014, 5 Ways the Internet of thinks will make things smarter, https://www.salesforce.com/blog/2014/03/internet-of-things-marketing-impact.html
1. Easy Exchange of Sales Data
One of the most valuable commodities to any business is it's sales data. By having access to information regarding how, where, and why your products are being purchased and used, you’ll be able to better tailor your marketing efforts towards your specific clients.
Smart devices that can gather this data and supply it back to you in real time, without the need for IT professionals to direct or monitor the interaction, will allow businesses to to create informed marketing strategies and improve ROI on future sales.
Perhaps even more important, you’re customers will be able to provide useful feedback instantaneously. So, if a specific product isn’t living up to expectations, you won’t have to wait very long at all to find out about it, which means that you’ll be able to cut your losses much sooner than later.
2. Smarter CRM: Instantaneous Customer Analysis
When used in conjunction with a dependable customer relationship management (CRM) tool, the IoT will be able to do more than simply gather and organize client data; it will be able to efficiently and accurately analyze that data as well, providing you with actionable results regarding your consumer base.
For marketers, this can be invaluable, given that the buyer’s chain of command is often long, and decisions take more time to be made. IoT devices can streamline this process by helping you understand where your prospect is in their buying journey, so that you’ll be able to make every second of every day count towards resolving issues and serving them the right information that will nurture them to ultimately close a deal.
3. Devices That Know They're Dying
One of the more promising aspects of smart-enabled products is their potential ability to perform their own regular maintenance and diagnostics.
Automobiles have been self-disgnosing themselves for sometime - but it was a clunky method that relied on inexact signals. With the power of IoT, every component is "smarter" so the ability to identify the problem, as well as the solution, will be lightning quick in comparison.
When it comes to conventional items and devices, often the first sign that anything is wrong comes when the device abruptly stops functioning altogether. When this happens, there’s not much that can be done, aside from getting it repaired or ordering a whole new device and waiting for it to arrive.
IoT devices could eliminate that down-time, by constantly monitoring their own functions and contacting technical support when necessary. And should a major, irreparable problem be detected, the IoT device could easily order a replacement for itself, so that when it finally does shut down, the new model will already have arrived and be ready to be put into service.
The same goes for upgrades. Many users will put off upgrading their devices out of fear that the new upgrade will be buggy, time-consuming to implement, or that something will go wrong. Unfortunately, not upgrading software often leaves the devices open to security compromises or known problematic issues. IoT devices would take feet-dragging users out of the equation, and search for, download, and install new upgrades completely on their own.
4. Predictive Social Media
When Facebook and Twitter first hit the scene several years ago, most marketers were less-than convinced that these new “social media” sites would be worth targeting. We all know how well that turned out. Today, 74% of brand marketers report that they see a noticeable increase in web traffic after investing a mere 6 hours a week in social media marketing efforts.
The IoT is already optimized for use with social media, allowing automated posts and shares to be regularly generated by the devices themselves, and preparing the way for new online communities to develop centered around users of particular devices.
Marketers who are able to predict the development of these social communities, and target their efforts towards these communities, will be able to reach potential customers that may not have previously been available. Likewise, IoT devices, when coupled with social media, will allow marketers to identify and take advantage of new emerging trends.
5. Imagine a 100% CTR (Click Through Rate)
Brought together, these factors all point towards one final goal: smarter, more relevant advertising.
As increasing numbers of our once-unconnected devices and objects are being fitted with sensors and given constant network accessibility, the face of advertising is going to change for both the marketer and the consumer.
No longer will marketers rely on banner ads or popups based off a website you visited on Tuesday; most IoT devices will be completely unable to process or even display such crude ploys.
As a result, the age of the interruptive commercial will finally come to an end on the consumer side. In it’s place will be a new world in which advertising must be beneficial and completely relevant where no prospect is served an advertisement that doesn't 100% align with their interests, behaviors, and past purchases.
How is this possible? An example would be a light bulb going dark in your "smart" home. The connected home could not only make note of the need for a replacement, but could also provide the homeowner a digital coupon for a new bulb sent directly to their smartphone. Even better, the exact number of hours that the light bulb has been in use can be recorded and transmitted, letting you know that the light bulb is coming to the end of it's life.
Not only will the consumer save time by only being served relevant ads, but marketing will no longer waste thousands of dollars on irrelevant advertising.
Marketers would need to have a detailed understanding of their consumers in order to take advantage of the new opportunities being made available, but those who are able to make the transition will find that the IoT allows them the opportunity to stop being marketers, and finally start being valued business resourc
Air Pollution
IoT technologies substantially reduce Beijing air pollution
Liza Cooper, August 26, 2016, Air Pollution in China and IBM’s Green Initiatives, https://www.ibm.com/blogs/internet-of-things/air-pollution-green-initiatives/
IBM’s Green Horizons initiative is utilizing the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence in order to predict pollution levels and ultimately, drastically lower pollutants. The numerous factors that contribute to air-pollution levels (traffic levels, weather, humidity, wind patterns, etc.) are ingested by connected sensors all over China’s capital, and then broken down by artificial intelligence systems.
While the data is too complex for human analysts to be able to detect patterns, AI and IoT technologies are able to digest big data in order to pinpoint trends. After conducting predictive analysis, the system is able to make forecasts far more effectively than ever before. Since launching the initiative in 2014, IBM has been able to generate high-resolution 1-by-1-kilometer pollution forecasts 72 hours in advance, giving citizens more warning and planning time.
This data will not only help today’s citizens to prepare for daily conditions, but it will help future citizens by helping the city of Beijing to reach its goals of reducing smog-generating particulate matter in the capital by 25 percent by 2017. With sensors, IoT data, AI and its human assessment can identify polluters and help to design smarter cities, highways, and coping methods. The Green Horizons initiative will soon be moving to other heavily polluted cities, including Johannesburg and New Delhi
IoT Technologies provided data needed to reduce air pollution
EU Internet of Things Council, February 20, 2014 http://www.theinternetofthings.eu/urban-air-pollution-growing-problem-most-cities-developing-countries Urban Air Pollution is a growing problem in most cities in developing countries
Urban air pollution is a growing problem in most cities in developing countries. However there is weak institutional capacity to address this issue in an integrated manner, because (for one reason) there is little in the way of an organized knowledge base or development/application of analytical tools that may help support decision making. Most available tools are complex and data-intensive (multi-purpose) and there is a need for a new generation of tools that can be used in these cities, which takes into account the availability of information and institutional challenges. Download an easy to read "primer on air quality management"
There is also a need to rapidly scale-up the use of analytical tools for not only the expanding mega-cities but also for the secondary cities which are developing significant air pollution problems. Modern information technology advances, their increasing presence, and networking offers a tremendous opportunity to establish such tools, to help city managers, regulators, academia, and citizen groups to develop a coordinated approach for integrated air quality management for a city.
UrbanEmissions.Info, has four objectives:
• promote the sharing of knowledge base on air pollution analysis
• analysis based on science
• advocacy and awareness raising on air quality management and
• building partnerships among local, national, and international stakeholders
Air pollution kills millions
Patrick Triest, April 29, 2016, Tracking Air Pollution in Delhi, One Auto Rickshaw at a Time, https://blog.socialcops.com/open-data/tracking-air-pollution-in-delhi
Air pollution has major health consequences for those living in heavily polluted areas. High levels of particulates and hazardous gases can increase the risk of heart disease, asthma, bronchitis, cancer, and more. The WHO estimates that there are 7 million premature deaths linked to air pollution every year, and the Union Environment Ministry estimates that 80 people die every day from air pollution in Delhi.
Douglas McIntyre, June 27, 2016, Air Pollution Kills 6.5 million a year, http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2016/06/27/air-pollution-kills-6-5-million-a-year-iea/
According to the IEA, 6.5 million people die of air pollution each year.
Each year an estimated 6.5 million deaths are linked to air pollution with the number set to increase significantly in coming decades unless the energy sector takes greater action to curb emissions. Air pollution is a problem felt around the world, particularly the poorest in society. No country is immune as a staggering 80% of cities that monitor pollution levels fail to meet the air quality standards set by the World Health Organization. Premature deaths from outdoor air pollution are projected to rise from 3 million today to 4.5 million by 2040, concentrated mainly in developing Asia. Meanwhile, premature deaths from household air pollution will decline from 3.5 million to 3 million over the same period, although they continue to be heavily linked to poverty and an inability to access modern energy.
IoT will reduce traffic congrestion, reducing air pollution
BBCA, March 18, 2015, How Can the Internet of Things Improve Our Lives? https://bbvaopen4u.com/en/actualidad/how-can-internet-things-improve-our-lives-check-out-these-seven-practical-applications
One of the main problems of European and Asian cities are their high levels of air pollution, largely caused by road traffic. Currently there are solutions related to the IoT that can help public administrations ensure a sustainable management of traffic by placing sensors which measure pollution and the use of predictive models.
A practical example is the RESCATAME Project, led by Libelium, one of the leading Spanish providers in IoT solutions. The program, launched by the City Council of Salamanca, has allowed to obtain a large amount of traffic data by placing sensors on a Waspmote base, which provide information about temperature, relative humidity, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (N02), ozone (O3), and levels of particles in the air.
Another similar example can be found in Helsinki, where the urban bus service has a system known as HELB (Helsingin Bussiliikenne Oy) which allows to collect data through sensors placed on the vehicles. Thanks to the analysis of this information city authorities have managed to reduce fuel consumption, improve routes and also the skills of bus drivers.
IoT reducing air pollution in China
Robert Morris, May 14, 2015, Can the Internet of Things Solve China’s Biggest Problems? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/can-internet-things-solve-chinas-biggest-problems-robert-jt-morris
Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz wrote that the two greatest growth factors of the 21st century are China's urbanization and America's technology. But China’s amazing story of modernization has come at a cost: major environmental challenges to the essentials of air, food and water. The worlds of the physical and information are coming together. The Internet of Things (IoT) is promising to automate our appliances, shopping, energy and transportation. But could these advances in technology, now being pursued worldwide, be turned to alleviate these developmental side effects? We're in China for the long term. It's reputed that Deng Xiao Ping responded "It's too early to tell" when asked about the impact of the French Revolution. While some historians may quibble about exactly what he was referring to, it doesn't matter to us. We formed ourChina research labalmost 20 years ago in pursuit of superb talent. When we first got started we were trying to adapt Chinese talent to lots of global opportunities, but it becameclearthat the most fascinating problems were right in front of our nose. Why not use made-in-China expertise to address the most pressing problems of China? ProjectGreen Horizonis an example. A couple of years ago our research team sat down to sort through China’s most pressing needs. You can probably guess what bubbled to the top: Air Quality. How, you may ask, can computing research contribute to air quality? The idea is simple: if we could accurately predict air pollution levels as a function of sources and weather patterns, using computationally-intensive models (based on fluid dynamics and chemical kinetics) then we can examine the effect of selectively shutting down various sources on pollution levels. As an obvious example: we want to shut down the power stations that are upwind, not downwind. But to predict which way the wind is going to blow, and where the pollution is going to be, we have to be able to accurately model weather and flow patterns as well as dispersion and chemical reactions. To get these predictions right, our IoT solution makes use of thousands of sensors across a city, for both weather conditions and pollutant species. It turns out that existing predictive models simply aren’t good enough - different physical models work well in different physical regimes. Machine Learning to the rescue: by learning the accuracy of various models over periods of time we can work out the optimal time-varying blending of the models. This breakthrough produces enough forecasting accuracy to help responsible authorities take actions that improve outcomes. We got the chance to test our advice during planning for the recent APEC conference in China. This is not your father’s IoT, which did some monitoring and perhaps some basic closed-loop control. It uses many advanced sensors, masses of data, and advanced model-based reasoning about how to control a very complex system. Using machine-learning techniques to boost the performance of models of highly nonlinear and stochastic atmospheric systems, it optimizes multiple decision variables. Besides making short-term decisions such as to whether to enforce an extra day of "keep your car at home”, policy makers can use this system for longer-term planning, such as moving away from coal burning power generation. Commendably, Beijing has been moving in this direction for some time now. Using our models we can also understand the sensitivity to industrial production (e.g., steel-making) and transportation, two of the current biggest pollution sources. We can improve air quality while minimizing economic disruption and inconvenience. Our team has been doingexactly thisin several parts of China and supporting our partners in their important decisions. I've personally experienced the power of our predictive tools a few weeks ago. I arrived in Beijing on a Monday night and our team said that Tuesday would be pretty hazy, Wednesday better and Thursday a pretty good air day. I eagerly threw the curtains open in the hotel each day to see. Sure enough, our Dr. Dong Jin's predictions for 3/3 days were right. This gives me hope: if we can predict and explain, we can create change. Food safety is another area where we are able to contribute as good citizens. Evidence-based healthcare has become critically important, especially as the population ages. And our work on creating technologies "Made with China" is another area. But how do you support the goal of supporting more indigenous innovation, while running a sustainable global business in China? We're findingnew creative wayswith processor technology and cloud services. And when we useopen technology, collaboration is plentiful and easy. Increasingly we find that our best and brightest researchers, worldwide, are greatly motivated by using information to work on significant problems. Nowadays our researchers can tell their families that they are lowering air pollution in their neighborhood or increasing food safety. That's a pretty rewarding use of IoT based on some clever math, weather and computer science, and some of the best talent on the planet.
Quality of Life
IoT improves security and the quality of life
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
Fifth Consequence: Connective Security and Quality of Life The fifth consequence of the internet of things is that people will look for more and more ways to use device networks to improve human security. Along with connective action, there is some security that comes from having infrastructure that can be studied for big-picture trends and small deviations. We might start to think of this as “connective security,” namely, the improvements in our ability to track good trends, monitor bad behavior, and make reasoned security decisions with high-quality data. First, the data generated by the internet of things is likely to improve our ability to watch our governments and construct new governance mechanisms when established ones fail. Second, all this data will improve our ability to follow and extinguish dirty networks of criminals, drug lords, and political strongmen. Big data refers to the kind of information you can get from lots of people using lots of different technologies. Mobile phones, video-game consoles, email accounts, website log files, and a host of other appurtenances of consumer electronics generate immense amounts of information about people’s interests. Even more valuable is information about people’s behavior that comes from analyzing big data. Through big data a country can address its own health-and-welfare problems, and direct smart military operations such as the one that killed Osama bin Laden. Just as social media can be used to coordinate democracy advocates or as a tool for social control, big data can be used for solving social problems, surveillance, or manipulation. Big governments often “frame” problems as being manageable. In countries where new media are dominated by the government, journalists sometimes just pass the official perspective on to citizens. The U.S. government framed the Hurricane Katrina disaster as a crisis it was addressing efficiently. 36 The Russian government claimed that it had a handle on the forest fires of 2010, a claim refuted by community maps. The Japanese government claimed that the radiation leaking out of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant was under control. Mapping by several people, including web designer Haiyan Zhang, proved otherwise. 37 Social media allow alternative frames, and sometimes they allow communities to frame problems, victims, and culprits before a government can spin the facts. Along with tracking the bad behavior of governments, big data makes it possible to track international networks of criminal activity. Digital media have made it much easier to coordinate different networks of crime fighters and get them working in concert across international borders. To combat dirty networks requires input from different kinds of organizations: local police, intelligence agencies, militaries, media outlets, academics, NGOs, and, perhaps most important, average citizens. One of the most pernicious networks includes the ties that form between dictators, drug lords, gun runners, holy thugs, and rogue generals. But police also form networks, and they have better resources for putting together big data for themselves. The rising drug violence in South America, for example, has motivated police across several borders to work out joint security plans. Experienced officers from Colombia and Chile now help those in Nicaragua and Honduras. Indeed, the fact that mafias use information technology often makes it easier to map out their networks. Most anticrime initiatives are national. Almost every country in the world has seen a boom in local anticorruption initiatives over social media. Some are organized by average citizens putting together the pieces to solve mysteries, and some come from major technology firms targeting drug cartels. 38 Dirty networks are effective because the connections between powerful criminals are tenuous and closely guarded. The nodes in such networks often have chosen to hide in Latin American or African jungles because the roads that link their compounds to the rest of the world are not easily watched. The Lord’s Resistance Army has been able to move through the Congo, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic for decades. A single road, passable only during the dry season, weaves through the western part of South Sudan. But tracking technologies improve faster than these thugs’ ability to discover new hiding spots.
In some cases, people are able to muster significant information resources toward undermining the credibility of poor leaders, then organize opponents for a coordinated push. These information cascades start as small examples of citizen journalism, efforts to document police abuse, or political jokes. They can grow to topple a dictator. Dirty networks are not always governments, but bad governments are often networked with drug lords, corrupt generals, or holy thugs. Social media can be used against those kinds of political actors too, as a way of undermining their control or as a way of coping during moments of extreme violence. A powerful country is going to be one that has the capacity to use big data to solve its own domestic social inequalities. Such a country can use the internet of things to outmaneuver enemies, and use social media to deepen cultural relationships even when government leaders are hostile with one another. The powerful country is going to be the one that can intelligently analyze a continuous flow of information from neighbors, friends, and enemies. During the Cold War, security analysts, pundits, and scholars studied patterns of alliances and camps. Any country that didn’t fall neatly into a camp raised doubts about its strategic intentions. Now the perception of camps is less relevant, and indeed it is possible for a savvy international player to use digital media to create the impression that it is an active member of several camps. Big data is useful not just for understanding the global connections between political actors. It can be useful as well for understanding small and local sociotechnical systems. For example, Sandy Pentland argues, in Social Physics, that an immense amount of organizational complexity can be captured with what he calls reality-based research involving sensors and log files. 39 Yet big data analysis certainly has critics, and the big data debate is relevant for thinking through the impact of the internet of things. 40 The internet of things is going to make big data truly gargantuan. Successfully analyzing the data that can be collected by a world of networked devices will itself be an engineering challenge. Unfortunately, the hyperbole and enthusiasm for the “social physics” of big data analysis has kindled new excitement about data mining. Most people, most of the time, value their privacy online. 41 Big data analysis can be good for modeling behavior, but is unable to reveal peoples’ attitudes and aspirations. Howard, Philip N. (2015-04-28). Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 179). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
Overall, IoT good for social stability and progress
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
The Downside of Up Connective security and connective action have definite downsides. The same information infrastructure that allows friends and family to trade emails allows Russian mafia members to buy the credit card records of U.S. citizens, or terrorists to plan and launch attacks. Governments use the web to advance their territorial claims, interpret (and sometimes forget) history in flattering ways, justify human-rights abuses, or assert regional power. They spy on their citizens. The risk of keeping our online infrastructure open is that some people will use this system for evil. Someone will always try to set up rival infrastructures for social control rather than creativity. But one of the challenges, when it comes to adding it all up, is that there is no way to know whether the bonds of friendship between people divided by distance and culture are more numerous— or stronger— than the ties that have been destroyed or weakened by digitally mediated communication. Put more simply, are there more good relationships and projects coming out of digitally mediated social networks than bad? The myth that the internet is radicalizing our society, fragmenting our communities, or polarizing our political conversations makes for a good editorial or news-feature story. It remains more of a news peg than a demonstrable, widespread phenomenon. It may have become easier to find the text of Mein Kampf or other tomes of hatred online, but there is much more content and social interaction that has none of that hatred. There are many more mainstream political parties, regular newspapers, and middle-of-the-road political conversations. A balanced look finds examples of how digital media have been useful for both constructive and destructive political engagement. If the internet of things greatly expands the digital network of our political lives, will the network as a whole be more conducive to hate speech? Attempts by extremists and criminals to use device networks for their hateful and nefarious projects represent a small risk when weighed against the benefits and affordances of the internet of things: if personal data is managed responsibly and civil-society groups can actively participate in the standards-setting conversations, that is. Over the past twenty-five years of internet interregnum, the violent extremists who organized online became easy to identify and catch as a result. The cure— widespread surveillance— may or may not be worse than the disease. Extensive surveillance might put a pall on the mood of the majority of internet users, but the ongoing NSA surveillance scandal seems not to have affected user attitudes. Knowing that the NSA can surveil the Western web and that the Chinese can surveil their telecommunications infrastructure has not had consequences for the enthusiasm of most new users. With the right conditions, a radical website can galvanize a community of hatred, give individuals a target for their vitriol, and help them organize their attacks, both on and offline. Fortunately, it’s rare to get the right conditions for this heady mix of nasty conditions. Howard, Philip N. (2015-04-28). Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 220). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
Civil Society
IoT supports the development of civil societies, even in dictatorships
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
Social media, big data, and the internet of things are helping people bring some stability to even these anarchic places. Our crowd-sourced maps of social problems, produced by many people using many kinds of devices, help people find solutions. Increasingly the internet of things is structuring our political lives, and we can already see how people use device networks to create new maps that link civic groups with one another and with people in need. This internet can make people aware of their behaviors and relationships. It allows people to trade stories of political success and failure, and to build and maintain their own networks of family and friends. Sometimes, these networks evolve into powerful political movements. People use social media to make new maps and new movements, and to construct new institutions for themselves. Moreover, the internet of things is growing into a world where networks of dictators are calcifying, young people are using digital media to develop political identities on their own, and communities are involving information infrastructure in digital networks. Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 68). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
Social media solves collective action problems
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
Fourth Premise: Social Media Solve Collective Action Problems Ahmed Maher was born in Alexandria, Egypt, in 1980. The next year Hosni Mubarak took the reins of political power, starting a thirty-year run as the country’s dictator. This means that Maher had little experience with political alternatives growing up. When two police officers dragged Khaled Said from a cybercafé and beat him to death, Maher and others decided to act. 57 The images of Said’s body lying in the morgue— images shared by SMS— were proof of abuse. A few people fed up with violent security services are not enough to drive a revolution. That takes collective action. Fighting for democracy and freedom presents the mother of all collective-action problems. Why risk tear gas and rubber bullets for an uncertain outcome? Everyone might benefit if you oppose the abuses of a ruling elite. Any one person alone must weigh the daunting costs, risks, and uncertain impact of standing up. What makes an authoritarian government authoritarian is that someone probably will watch you and punish you for your participation. Too many die at the hands of brutal government-security officials. Increasingly, however, people document the suffering of their loved ones. In Iran, in 2009, Neda Agha-Soltan was shot dead at a street protest, and the video of her blood pooling in the streets of Tehran inspired immense public outrage. 58 This video inflamed the largest protests since the Iranian revolution of 1979. In Tunisia, in December 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation depressed Tunisians, then enraged them to open insurrection. In Syria, in April 2011, Hamza Ali Al-Khateeb, a thirteen-year-old boy, was brutally tortured and then killed, helping to fuel a civil war. 59 In Bahrain, in August 2011, Ali Jawad al-Sheikh was killed when a police tear-gas tear-gas canister struck him in the head. These victims focused popular anger. Or, more accurately, their stories were carried by digital media over wide networks of family and friends. The stories made people realize that the risks of individual inaction were greater than the risks of collective action. Having information technologies that can carefully document a government’s failings means that people start to evaluate the costs and benefits of collective action in different ways. If a government terrorizes its people selectively and secretly, most citizens will decide that the risks of rising up in opposition are too great or just too uncertain. But information technologies help people understand what happens if they do nothing. In other words, they start to recognize the costs of staying home, of staying out of the fray: the possibility that random acts of violence might affect them. Taking to the streets no longer seems like risky behavior. Staying at home and doing nothing becomes the real risk. It’s hard for people to figure out when to join a social movement. As Mancur Olson argues in the Logic of Collective Action, most groups are doomed to fail for structural reasons. 60 In the abstract, a big group is likely to fail because with so many people in the group, each individual gets only a fractional amount of benefit by contributing to the collective good. A small group is likely to fail because it lacks the resources to have an impact. The best structural scenario for collective action is a big group with lots of shared resources and a few entrepreneurial members willing to do most of the work and figure out the incentives and punishments needed to move everyone else along. While this is a powerful way of looking at groups in the abstract, it is no longer the best way of explaining why some social movements succeed and others fail. Fundamentally, Olson’s way of looking at the world assumed that members would have only occasional contact with each other. Sharing grievances, discussing problems, and acting on solutions would involve only occasional synchronization over broadcast media and through social networks. When it comes to understanding today’s popular uprisings and digital-activism campaigns, we can’t forget that communication among group members is usually continuous, if messy. Digital media are almost perfectly aligned with social networks. They are synchronous and two-way. The content is infinitely copy-able and mashable. As Ethan Zuckerman is correct to point out, we often use social media to flock together, strengthening our existing networks. 61 Yet digital cosmopolitanism is driven by both a social problem and the information technologies that coordinate solutions. People will learn, adapt, ask for help, and build community, if the social problem is worth solving. As Lance Bennett and Alexandra Segerberg argue, fresh thinking is needed to understand how digital media solve collective-action problems. 62 They describe a new logic of “connective action” that explains why digital networks allow collective action in ways that would surprise Olson. Their argument is that digital media help to personalize contentious issues, so that we can all do a better job interpreting the real risks and benefits to participating in collective action. This helps to explain why Maher— and so many others— decided to act in concert against Mubarak. And it helps to explain why spontaneous temporary teams have been able to use voluntary digital mapping projects to solve collective-action problems that have remained intractable for decades. Looking around the world, research has found that a large proportion of digital activism projects have failed. The vast majority of crowd-sourced maps are started and never used. 63 One of the key findings from global research on digital activism is that bad ideas and poorly executed civic projects fail quickly, while good ideas and effective online projects spread quickly. 64 The overall impact, over several years, has been an impressive list of problems tackled: a growing list of domains in which digital networks have solved collective action problems that, for many years, had not been resolved. Howard, Philip N.. Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 139). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
IoT enables collective action that solves many problems
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
The fourth consequence of the internet of things is that connective action will solve more and more collective problems. Whereas Ahmed Maher had a powerful reason for joining a popular uprising for democracy, Eliot Higgins’s interest in the Syrian civil war is tough to figure out. As the blogger “Brown Moses,” Higgins develops his hobby for a cause. He tracks the weapons that appear in images and video coming out of conflict zones. He records who is holding which assault rifle, where armaments appear to be stored, and what impact those weapons have. His research has been used by media outlets and politicians. He culls his observations from hundreds of YouTube videos filed by journalists and citizens caught up in the conflict. When the Syrian government denied using cluster bombs on its people, he had the video evidence to catch its lie. He found barrel bombs when the Russians said none were being used. He has counted and catalogued shoulder-launched, heat-seeking missiles and found Croatian weapons that must have come to the Syrian opposition with Western assistance. The systematic evidence about the regime’s use of ballistic missiles, which he collected at his home computer, triggered an Amnesty International investigation. Getting good information from countries in crisis is always difficult, and it is even more difficult when ruling elites have a lot to hide. Higgins isn’t Syrian, hasn’t been to Syria, and has no long-term ties to Syria. He has no weapons training and has taught himself to recognize weaponry using online sources. 26 Why would he get involved? Brown Moses is only one of many people and projects that have put the interests of a few or one to work for the many. Indeed, as more people get mobile phones and smartphones, more digital-activism projects have appeared. The main antidote to dirty networks of gun runners is the attention of social media. Modern political life is rife with examples of how people have used social media to catch dictators off guard and engage their neighbors with political questions. Ushahidi, the mapping platform for crowd-sourced knowledge, has a good record of problem solving. It may be one of the largest and most high profile of such providers of connective action, but it’s not the only one. Uchaguzi is a platform built specifically for monitoring the Kenyan election in 2013.27 In neighboring Nigeria, researchers find that the number and location of electoral fraud reports is highly correlated with voter turnout. 28 This means that social media are starting to generate statistically valid snapshots of what’s happening on the ground— even in countries as chaotic as Nigeria. Still, connective action doesn’t just happen through crowd-sourced maps. Indian Kanoon, an online, searchable database on Indian law, has opened up a whole swath of data to the average person. 29 Many Indians are proud of living in the largest democracy in the world, but it is difficult for average citizens to understand Indian law. The text of an act can be extensive, and finding the small section of law that has a bearing on any specific issue can be difficult. Extracting the applicable sections from hundreds of pages of law documents is too daunting for nonlawyers. Moreover, laws are often vague, and one needs to see how they have been interpreted by judges. In Indian law libraries, the laws and judgments are often maintained separately, making it difficult for average citizens to link relevant laws with judgments and precedents. Indian Kanoon is helping to make the law more accessible. In Russia, Liza Alert helps coordinate the search for missing children. 30 Other sites track complaints about poor public services and coordinate volunteers. 31 People use the internet to track corruption at universities in Kenya and Uganda. 32 India’s I Paid a Bribe project inspired similar projects in Pakistan and Kenya. 33 Altogether, these projects don’t simply make up a scattered network of do-gooders. Over the past decade we’ve seen civil-society actors develop digital tools for engaging with the public and with public policy makers. India’s Kiirti platform relies on the public to identify problems, crowd-sources the process of verification, involves a civic group in identifying relevant policy makers, and summarizes the trends for policy makers. 34 Today, digital activists are often found at the center of new social movements. Vladimir Putin’s hold on national broadcast media has been so tight that civil-society actors turned to the internet, and there they bloomed— and found solidarity. In an important way, the Russian internet became the home of the effective opposition, because it was there that the best investigative journalism, anticorruption campaigns, and groups like Pussy Riot found audiences. In Tunisia and Egypt, before the Arab Spring, the largest civic protests were either organized by bloggers or were about the arrest of bloggers. People have used device networks to produce very different kinds of social movements. During the revolutions of 1848, the civil unrest of 1968, and the popular uprisings of 1989, formal hierarchical organizations drove political events. They were well organized, had clear leadership structures, and were armed with ideological or nationalist zeal. They often had the savvy to put then-new media to work for them and their propaganda: leaflets, radio, and cassette tapes carried messages to supporters. Social networks were important for binding together people within the same working class, and the result was large cohorts of like-minded socialists, nationalists, and freedom fighters who acted in concert and were quick to form political parties. Today’s social movements are distinct. They are much less about class and race, and no longer so driven by prepackaged ideologies and high-profile, charismatic leaders. Now social movements are temporary networks of networks, sharing grievances and a negotiated action plan. The first wave of protesters on the streets of Tunis and Cairo were young and middle class— they weren’t just Islamists, Marxists, or the poor from urban slums. Street protests involved networked groups, many of which had formed around specific digital initiatives. They governed themselves in peculiar ways. The modern social movement is a temporary team of linked, smaller networks with a shared memory of past interactions with state police and the expectation of future contact with one another. This peculiar aspect of network politics is also what can make such social movements brittle. They may act swiftly and impressively and massively, but they may not last. As we’ve seen from the Occupy Movement, the Arab Spring, and many major national protests since, networked social movements have a difficult time becoming political parties. They have a tough time staying in the long game. It would be impossible for all of us to form opinions on all issues, much less volunteer to help solve every political problem. The key reason social media are helping people solve collective-action problems is that they link up the people who do have the ideas and energy to work together. In a sense, digital networks help organize knowledge and address ignorance. And this happens even in authoritarian regimes, where ruling elites see the young as uncontrolled and the young see themselves as powerless. Social media give power to the rationally ignorant.
Social media certainly helped Ahmed Maher to find his network in Cairo, and they allowed Eliot Higgins to make his contribution to international affairs. Both formed digital clubs of peers with shared interests, willing to act together. Both have generated useful knowledge and information for the larger clans of activists, journalists, and interested publics. Yet the impact of social media extends beyond information supplies and personally compelling calls to action. Social media encourage collective action precisely because information is embedded in a social context. It’s what we do with the information, how we act in our daily lives, that ultimately helps us address the challenges of our era. These days, there are two qualities that are unique about the connective action enabled by digital media: we maintain clans, and we join clubs. These two terms from anthropology and economics have usefully specific meanings for the internet of things. Facebook facilitates the formation of clans and supports clan identity. Essentially, it is a service that allows clans to stay connected on a daily— even hourly— basis, and across international borders. And perhaps not surprisingly, these clan ties, digitally maintained, are behind resurgent subnationalisms around the world. Political identities that had been effectively subsumed for decades have surged back because their communities preserved cultural knowledge, and various diasporas reconnected, sent money, and carried political issues around the world. A crypto-clan is a group based on actual or perceived kinship and descent that we actively maintain through new information technologies. Your extended family, your close friends on your block, your high school pals: these can all be the basis of your clan affiliations. Race, ethnicity, gender, and sexual orientation are among the many sources of identity we have. But groups we actively maintain with Facebook and Twitter and crypto-clans, and they are important because they are elective. We don’t always choose our family ties, but we do choose how to maintain those ties digitally. We don’t know everyone in our crypto-clans, but within a few steps it is easy to get to know the other people in the clan. Broad norms of trust and reciprocity permeate crypto-clans, and our clan networks are great sources of information. A crypto-clan is a collection of weak ties, mediated by device networks, that we get to curate for ourselves. In contrast, digital clubs are the smaller groups of people whom we know more directly. Trust and reciprocity aren’t the only criteria for membership. Active engagement is the norm, and providing collective good is the goal. Like crypto-clans, digital clubs are elective. So they are important because as groups they have even more of our loyalties and goodwill— they are collections of strong ties, digitally mediated. We use digital clans to gather information, and we join digital clubs to change the world. In an authoritarian regime, it’s risky to attend a small protest. You’ll get beaten up and arrested, and the regime will learn who you are. The internet of things will transform the way people participate in politics by making their devices agents of information about opinion and behavior. Researchers found that during the Arab Spring in Cairo, one-third of protesters were protesting for the first time. 35 The vast majority of people who attended the first day learned about the event online, and they all used their devices to do some kind of documentary work to discover what was going on. These weren’t individuals attending a small protest, they were a clan of like-minded citizens linked by shared grievances and values. Exactly who controls the process by which networked devices generate politically valuable information remains to be seen. Will it be the users who buy them, the companies that make them, or the governments that surveil networks? Currently industry and government have the most systematic means of rendering politically meaningful information from networks of devices. Unless civil-society groups fight for a radical change in the understanding of how the internet of things is to be used, the “balance of power” favors those who have the cryptographic skills to use and manipulate the networked devices around them. In many authoritarian regimes, there is a disjunction between ruling elites, who see the young as dangerous and shiftless, and the young, who see themselves as unable to act. If there is something to be learned from the peculiar social movements of recent years, it is that young people who feel disenfranchised will teach themselves technology tricks. This does not mean that the world will be full of cryptography experts. Those who are skilled in cryptography will be able to form clans and clubs, using basic security tools with their devices to create distributed networks of trust. Howard, Philip N. (2015-04-28). Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 175). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
Democracy
IoT can be used to build democracy
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
BUILDING A DEMOCRACY OF OUR OWN DEVICES The internet of things will be the most powerful political tool ever created. By 2020 there will be some thirty billion devices connected to the internet, and political power over the eight billion people on the planet will rest with the people who can control those devices. Ideally, we will all share control in responsible ways. Political clout already comes from owning or regulating mobile-phone networks, controlling the broadcast spectrum, and having the ability to shut these things down. We have to fundamentally change the way we think of political units and order. Digital media have changed the way we use our social networks and allowed us to be political actors when we choose to be. We use technology to connect to one another, and to share stories. The state, the political party, the civic group, the citizen: these are all old categories from a pre-digital world. Action and reaction among governments, with occasional involvement of substate political actors, once propelled political conflict and competition. But now the interaction is continuous, and between many kinds of actors. The agency of individuals is being enhanced by the device networks of the internet of things. Increasingly, international relations will be about interpersonal relations and how devices talk to one another. All the creative civic projects making use of device networks demonstrate that their impact depends on the power of their ideas and their effectiveness at social networking. This is in sharp contrast to nations, where power comes from the size of the population, economic wealth, or military arsenal. Civic networks are more creative, and better at deflating ideological arguments by political parties and dogmatic leaders. They can focus on problems in a sustained way, while governments and political parties have to juggle competing priorities. Competing networks exist in several forms, and to make this sociotechnical system function fairly, we need to work to strengthen the information infrastructures that have the most open standards, the widest reach, and the greatest potential for innovation. We all need to take a more active interest in our own information security and in international affairs. We need to make sure the internet of things works for us. Program or be programmed, as hackers say. If we aren’t purposeful in designing the internet of things, we’ll find that those with power will make decisions using data gleaned about us, and without our informed consent. Our behavior will have more meaningful political consequences than our attitudes or aspirations. Howard, Philip N. (2015-04-28). Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (p. 225). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
IoT will provide our future political structure
Philip Howard, Professor, Oxford, 2015, Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up, kindle edition – page number at end of card
The eighteenth-century British historian Edward Gibbon, in The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, argued that “the Roman Empire was governed by absolute power, under the guidance of wisdom and virtue.” 5 At this point, the networks of devices connected to the internet are allowing us to provide many kinds of governance goods for our own communities. We can’t be certain that this will always be so for the internet of things. The next internet will certainly be used to express and challenge political power. Now is the time to encode the next internet with democratic virtues. More than ever, technology, including technical expertise, means political power. Political clout now comes from owning or regulating mobile-phone networks, controlling the broadcast spectrum, and having the expertise to turn off access to both. By 2020, the majority of the global population will live under limited and fragile governments, rather than stable democratic or authoritarian ones. 6 The internet of things, more than formal governments, will be providing political structure. In 2000 only about 10 percent of the world’s population was online. By 2020, most of the world’s population will either be online or be economically, culturally, and politically affected by the internet of things. Three of every five of these new internet users will live in a fragile state. The things that constitute and define the internet will not be just computers and mobile phones but the objects of everyday life: lamps and refrigerators, sneakers and biosensors. Some thirty-two million smart thermostats will be installed in U.S. homes by 2020.7 Myriad devices will consume much of the internet’s bandwidth: talking among themselves, reporting on their status, and revealing the behaviors of the people in sensor range. Political bots will use much of the rest, and original, human-made content will be a fractional amount of the information that is exchanged. Data sharing among devices will be as ubiquitous, and as nearly unnoticed, as electricity. Technology companies will become the arbiters of human rights, because it will be through their devices that we will learn of abuse, and through their devices that abuse is carried out. National security agencies around the world will be engaged in conversations about cyberdeterrence that continue to use the language of nuclear deterrence developed for an earlier era. This may not seem productive, but having political leaders fear the consequences of launching a major cyberassault is likely to result in a stable balance of power maintained and monitored through the internet of things. Instead of being caught up in an arms race, political actors will race to develop better bots. With device networks expanding rapidly, botnets will have many more nodes and passages in which to grow, and many more sensors that can be activated to surveil and manipulate public opinion. Howard, Philip N. (2015-04-28). Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up (pp. 233-234). Yale University Press. Kindle Edition.
IoT can be used to promote civic engagement
Wikipedia, no date Internet of Things, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_of_things DOA: 9-25-16
Some scholars and activists argue that the IoT can be used to create new models of civic engagement if device networks can be open to user control and inter-operable platforms. Philip N. Howard, a professor and author, writes that political life in both democracies and authoritarian regimes will be shaped by the way the IoT will be used for civic engagement. For that to happen, he argues that any connected device should be able to divulge a list of the "ultimate beneficiaries" of its sensor data, and that individual citizens should be able to add new organizations to the beneficiary list. In addition, he argues that civil society groups need to start developing their IoT strategy for making use of data and engaging with the public.
Cloud Computing Good
A strong Cloud is critical to the IoT
Daniel Burrus is considered one of the world’s leading technology forecasters and innovation experts, and is the founder and CEO of Burrus Research. He is the author of six books including the New York Times best seller “Flash Foresight.”, November 2014, The Internet of Things is Bigger than Anyone Realizes, https://www.wired.com/insights/2014/11/the-internet-of-things-bigger/
A sensor is not a machine. It doesn’t do anything in the same sense that a machine does. It measures, it evaluates; in short, it gathers data. The Internet of Things really comes together with the connection of sensors and machines. That is to say, the real value that the Internet of Things creates is at the intersection of gathering data and leveraging it. All the information gathered by all the sensors in the world isn’t worth very much if there isn’t an infrastructure in place to analyze it in real time.
Cloud-based applications are the key to using leveraged data. The Internet of Things doesn’t function without cloud-based applications to interpret and transmit the data coming from all these sensors. The cloud is what enables the apps to go to work for you anytime, anywhere.
Waste/Efficiency
IoT reduces waste and inefficiency
Tech Target, no date, Internet of Things, http://internetofthingsagenda.techtarget.com/definition/Internet-of-Things-IoT DOA: 9-25-16
Kevin Ashton, cofounder and executive director of the Auto-ID Center at MIT, first mentioned the Internet of Things in a presentation he made to Procter & Gamble in 1999. Here’s how Ashton explains the potential of the Internet of Things:
“Today computers -- and, therefore, the internet -- are almost wholly dependent on human beings for information. Nearly all of the roughly 50 petabytes (a petabyte is 1,024 terabytes) of data available on the internet were first captured and created by human beings by typing, pressing a record button, taking a digital picture or scanning a bar code.
The problem is, people have limited time, attention and accuracy -- all of which means they are not very good at capturing data about things in the real world. If we had computers that knew everything there was to know about things -- using data they gathered without any help from us -- we would be able to track and count everything and greatly reduce waste, loss and cost. We would know when things needed replacing, repairing or recalling and whether they were fresh or past their best.”
Agriculture
IoT allows precision agriculture and farming adjustments
But the predictable pathways of information are changing: the physical world itself is becoming a type of information system. In what’s called the Internet of Things, sensors and actuators embedded in physical objects—from roadways to pacemakers—are linked through wired and wireless networks, often using the same Internet Protocol (IP) that connects the Internet. These networks churn out huge volumes of data that flow to computers for analysis. When objects can both sense the environment and communicate, they become tools for understanding complexity and responding to it swiftly. What’s revolutionary in all this is that these physical information systems are now beginning to be deployed, and some of them even work largely without human intervention.
Pill-shaped microcameras already traverse the human digestive tract and send back thousands of images to pinpoint sources of illness. Precision farming equipment with wireless links to data collected from remote satellites and ground sensors can take into account crop conditions and adjust the way each individual part of a field is farmed—for instance, by spreading extra fertilizer on areas that need more nutrients
IoT promotes agricultural productivity
The Globe and Mail, August 2013, 8 ways the Internet will change the way we live and work, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/the-future-is-smart/article24586994/, DOA: 9-25-16
Despite the bucolic image we might have of the average family farm, farmers have always been early adopters of technology—after all, anything that can help boost the meagre living they can scrape out of the land is a good thing. Most farmers these days walk their fields with GPS-enabled smartphones in their hands, loaded with ag-related apps. And with farms getting dramatically larger—the average spread in the United States has doubled in the past quarter-century—farmers (or, as is becoming more common, the huge corporations that own these operations) have been quick to deploy data-gathering, Internet-linked devices to help keep track of them. New machines from John Deere can not only plow, sow and reap, they can also collect a Farmer’s Almanac worth of data, including air and soil temperatures, moisture, wind speed, humidity, solar radiation and rainfall. Smart watering systems sprinkle just enough H2O on the fields, in just the right places, and can detect leaks in water pipes—vital in dry and drought-affected regions like California. One company has developed a sensor that can detect high counts of a particular pest and then release the pheromones that disrupt their mating rituals—which can, in turn, reduce the need for pesticides. Even cows are now transmitting bits of data in real time: A Dutch company has created sensors that, when attached to individual animals, can tell farmers which ones are in heat, pregnant or ill.
Security
Many ways IoT enhance security
Michael Chui is a senior fellow with the McKinsey Global Institute, Markus Löffler is a principal in McKinsey’s Stuttgart office, and Roger Roberts is a principal in the Silicon Valley office, March 2010, The Internet of Things, http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/the-internet-of-things DOA: 9-25-16
Security personnel, for instance, can use sensor networks that combine video, audio, and vibration detectors to spot unauthorized individuals who enter restricted areas. Some advanced security systems already use elements of these technologies, but more far-reaching applications are in the works as sensors become smaller and more powerful, and software systems more adept at analyzing and displaying captured information. Logistics managers for airlines and trucking lines already are tapping some early capabilities to get up-to-the-second knowledge of weather conditions, traffic patterns, and vehicle locations. In this way, these managers are increasing their ability to make constant routing adjustments that reduce congestion costs and increase a network’s effective capacity. In another application, law-enforcement officers can get instantaneous data from sonic sensors that are able to pinpoint the location of gunfire.
Counterterror
IoT important to counterterror
Patrick Tusker, 2014, The Naked Future, Kindle edition, page number at end of card, Patrick Tucker is a science journalist and editor. Tucker’s writing on emerging technology has appeared in The Atlantic, Defense One, Quartz, National Journal, Slate, Salon, The Sun, MIT Technology Review, Wilson Quarterly, The Futurist, BBC News Magazine, and Utne Reader, among other publications. Tucker, Patrick. The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? . Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
For instance, say you’re watching two suspects in a network. Person A is connected to person B through several affiliations. Person A makes a particular type of purchase, say, buying twelve rolls of toilet paper, before robbing a bank. The next day person B goes to a convenience store and buys twelve rolls of toilet paper. It’s reasonable to infer he might be preparing to rob a bank. It’s not enough to make an arrest but it does suggest an emerging pattern. The practice of connection tracking, even when all that’s being observed is correlation, is extremely fruitful in intelligence. In 2003, after months of trying to get information on Saddam Hussein’s whereabouts from Hussein’s senior officers and inner circle, the U.S. military used a social network mapping tool called i2 to chart the connections between his chauffeurs. This led them eventually to the farmhouse in Tikrit where Hussein was captured. 20 Tracing the social network of a dictator during war is rather less controversial than analyzing the connections of millions of Americans. Yet this is what the U.S. government under the Obama administration has begun to do. The obscure National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) routinely keeps personal transaction information, flight information, and other types of data on Americans who have neither been convicted nor are under suspicion of a crime. It does so for as long as five years under the vague auspice that it may be useful in some sort of investigation one day, even if that information isn’t relevant to any operation at the time of collection. The subjects of this transaction surveillance are people who have found their way into the Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment (TIDE), an enormous database of known terrorists, suspected terrorists, people who are loosely associated with suspected terrorists in some way (beekeepers, elementary school teachers, et cetera)— more than five hundred thousand links in all. The government has also given itself license to share the data across departments and even with other governments, despite the Privacy Act of 1974, which prohibits this sort of sharing. 21 If legal, technical, and public relations costs of expanding surveillance remain as low as they are now, it’s easy to imagine law enforcement considering a much broader array of connections and transactions worthy of monitoring. Tucker, Patrick. The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? (p. 220). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
Education
IoT will boost substantially improve education
Patrick Tusker, 2014, The Naked Future, Kindle edition, page number at end of card, Patrick Tucker is a science journalist and editor. Tucker’s writing on emerging technology has appeared in The Atlantic, Defense One, Quartz, National Journal, Slate, Salon, The Sun, MIT Technology Review, Wilson Quarterly, The Futurist, BBC News Magazine, and Utne Reader, among other publications. Tucker, Patrick. The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? . Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
THE year is 2020. You’re at a parent-teacher conference on the eve of the first day of a new school year. Your daughter is going into freshmen algebra tomorrow and you’re at this conference to meet her new teacher. You show up armed with every math quiz, every math problem that your child has attempted throughout elementary and middle school, as well as a breakdown of how long she took on each and at what time during the day— after breakfast, before dinner— she performed best. The profile may even reveal whom your daughter talks to online, whom she studies with, and how those supposed friends influence her homework performance. This is a lot of information to carry around. If you were to print all this material, you would be dragging boxes along behind you. But this information is already stored on the cloud. All you have to do is give your child’s teacher a link. You have a request: “Would you mind taking all this data and creating an individual learning program for my daughter to make positively sure she finishes this year with an understanding of algebra? By the way, she’s very shy, won’t ask any questions in class, and probably can’t devote more than an hour to algebra a night. Thank you.” Eight years of quiz scores footnoted and time-stamped? Facebook friends? Television-watching habits? What teacher in 2014 has the time to figure out the relevance of all that information? Not when lesson plans need writing, parents need to be called, and quizzes need grading. Thankfully, this isn’t 2014. Your daughter’s teacher opens the link on her phone and downloads the relevant files. They’re automatically run through a modeling app that sends her a notification. She suddenly knows exactly how well your kid will do on the first four quizzes, right down to which errors she’s going to make. “It seems your daughter keeps reversing second- and third-order operations. We’ll start drilling on those tomorrow. I’ll schedule a half-hour online tutoring session for the evening, right after Teen Mom?” “That would be great,” you answer, thankful that you aren’t being asked to come between your daughter and your daughter’s violent devotion to her favorite show on TV. “There’s one more thing,” says the teacher. “The profile shows that when Becky is confronted by a particularly hard problem she’ll switch over to Drawsomewords 8 for five minutes or so. She seems to have great spatial-representation skills. I have a friend that designs drafting freeware at a studio downtown. I think that if we can get your daughter an internship, it might help her make the connection between math and drawing and then she’ll exhibit a bit less resistance resistance to second- and third-order operations.” This offer seems generous, perhaps too much so. “Isn’t she a bit young for an internship? I mean, it’s her first year of high school.” The teacher nods politely. “She’s a bit late, actually. The average student her age has already started a company. But I think I can pull some strings.” • • • HOW does the above scenario become reality (and do we want it to)? For starters, the feedback loop between a teacher administering a lesson and a student taking a test needs to collapse to the second or two it takes a student to click a mouse. More important, the time and convenience costs of keeping records on individual student performance would need to fall to virtually zero. Finally, teachers, state education secretaries, administrators, parents, and employers would have to be willing to accept new performance metrics in place of what we today call grades. Every item on that list, except for the last one, exists in 2014. But the most important step is philosophical. We need to acknowledge what education is today: essential, expensive, and in terrible shape. The United States spends more than $ 10,000 a year per elementary and secondary student; that’s $ 2,000 above Japan and $ 4,000 above South Korea, two countries where students are outperforming us in science and math.
Even if we don’t know how to invest in school, we understand its importance. We’ve absorbed the fact that high school should prepare students for college because a college degree has never been a more essential credential to join the middle class. People with different education levels experience the same national economy in dramatically different ways. Unemployment among people with a high school degree was 8 percent in December 2012. Among people with a bachelor’s degree it was 4 percent. Statistically, people with a master’s degree or higher saw no employment collapse during the Great Recession. While it’s true that nearly half of all 2012 college grads in the United States were either unemployed or, far more likely, underemployed in low-wage jobs (and carrying an average of $ 27,000 in school debt), they were still faring better than their peers who did not have a degree. This speaks to a national skills gap that’s growing along the lines of economic class. Low-skilled jobs are partly being replaced by a smaller number of high-skilled jobs. Even as GM parts factories were shuttering in Michigan, kids in Silicon Valley were seeing their start-ups bought out in a matter of months. In many cases it wasn’t because of the products or services those fledgling companies were building but because of the talent contained therein, a phenomenon sometimes called acqui-hiring. Our nation’s response to our education challenge (both locally and nationally) embodies the worst aspects of an obsolete mind-set. A slavish devotion to lecturing has been compounded by a nascent obsession with testing. Whether it’s the Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) reports mandated by No Child Left Behind, SAT scores, or just finals, the effect is the same: at the end of a designated interval— a week, a semester— teachers ask students to take a test. Too often we accept whatever result comes back as an objective and useful indication of the students’ command of the material (administered via lecture). We do this despite the fact that history is full of intelligent people who didn’t perform well on standardized tests and we know people forget information they’ve been successfully tested on. A lot of this testing is purely for the sake of identifying failing schools and teachers. Increasingly little of it has to do with helping students learn. Lectures make testing necessary. Testing makes lectures important. Testing is the big data present. The naked future looks very different. Tucker, Patrick. The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? (p. 132). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
The Teacher as Superstar The year is 2007 and Stanford professor Andrew Ng is in front of four hundred students, giving his famous and highly rated lecture on machine learning. He asks a question of the undergrads assembled before him and observes three distinct behaviors in response. Ten percent of the class is slumped back; these students are texting, checking Facebook, or recovering from hangovers. They’re what you might call “zoned out.” About half the students are still madly typing the last thing said, displaying the sort of dedicated academic seriousness that propelled them through AP courses to get to Stanford. But they aren’t raising their hands. Thirty percent or so sit quietly, waiting for someone else to answer. Only a few kids near the front, less than 1 percent by Ng’s estimation, ask to be called on. If one of them gets the question right, Ng can breathe a sigh of relief and move on to the rest of the material. The predictable dreariness of this lecture hall exchange began to depress Ng. It’s a scene you could find in virtually any lecture hall today. Indeed, the lecture has changed relatively little from the time of Socrates, as evinced by the fact that Plato spends most of The Republic following Socrates around taking notes. It’s a method of teaching that has endured because it’s functional, which is not exactly a compliment. When Ng looked out over that horde of four hundred students, he recognized himself among them, one of the quiet kids, neither waving his hand nor asleep, simply sitting, passive and indecipherable. “I was a shy kid back in school. So raising your hand and asking a question, or answering a question, I did that sometimes, but not always,” he tells me in his office on the Stanford campus. Andrew Ng, it turns out, was fortunate to be a quiet student. If not for this quality of bashfulness, he would never have started his company, Coursera, which is remaking education for the twenty-first century. Today, anyone in the world can familiarize themselves with the fundamentals of machine learning through Andrew Ng’s massively open online course (MOOC). It boasted more than one hundred thousand alumni by July 2012. In his interactive instructional videos, Ng comes across very much as he does in real life. He is polite, serious, attentive, constrained in his movements, but friendly. He is not as shy as he was as an undergraduate at Carnegie Mellon but he remains an exceptionally soft-spoken man. Though he lectures quite successfully to auditoriums, he is clearly an instructor who thrives on one-on-one exchanges. His online course affords him the opportunity for this type of interaction with tens of thousands of people. Coursera offers a huge departure in the way student performance is measured and understood. Instead of tests at the end of the week or semester, short, interactive quizzes are interspersed throughout the lesson, in keeping with the human attention span as science actually understands it (not how headmasters want it to be). Every student must interact with the material as they’re studying it, not afterward. This allows Ng’s online platform to be not only an information distribution system but a telemetric data collection system. “We can log every mouse click, every time you speed up or slow down the video, every time you replay a particular five-second piece of the video. Every quiz submission, be it right or wrong, we know exactly how many seconds you took to do every quiz, and every post you read or posted. We’re starting to look at this data, which is giving us, I think, a new window into human learning,” Ng told me.
He admits that the subject matter in his machine-learning course is not easy. In fact, without a good understanding of linear algebra and at least some familiarity with statistics, the course is impossible. Chris Wilson from the online magazine Slate attempted the course and noted despairingly, “Avert your eyes, Mom, because I have a confession to make: I’m not entirely certain I’m going to pass.” Writing code for learning algorithms doesn’t become intuitive just because we want it to, or because the White House has a renewed interest in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education, or because someone designed a video game to teach it. Computer science will remain a difficult, multistep, and rule-filled domain because such is science. Though we are prone in the Internet era to lionize technology wizards the way we used to venerate rock stars, science and music aren’t interchangeable. Science will never feel natural because it is not natural. For all his genius, Andrew Ng can’t change this. What telemetric education offers is the chance for all students to raise their hands and be heard. That opportunity doesn’t come easily in a crowded classroom and especially not for women or minority students, many of whom feel that if they ask the wrong question or display ignorance, they’ll confirm some unflattering, broadly held perception about their social group. We now understand this to be a real phenomenon, one that plays out in classrooms around the world every day, called stereotype threat. Tucker, Patrick. The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? (p. 134). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
IOT improves education in many ways
Andrew Meola, September 16, 2016, Business Insider, How IoT in Education is Transforming the Way We Learn, http://www.businessinsider.com/internet-of-things-education-2016-9
The rise of mobile technology and the IoT allows schools to improve the safety of their campuses, keep track of key resources, and enhance access to information. Teachers can even use this technology to create "smart lesson plans," rather than the traditional stoic plans of yesteryear. Below, we've compiled a list of IoT education examples, including the uses of the IoT in higher education, the future of the Internet in education, and examples of companies that are using the IoT to enter the education space. IoT in Higher Education The IoT can begin disrupting the education process as early as kindergarten and can continue to do so through 12th grade, but perhaps the most profound effects occur in higher education. Students, particularly in college, are increasingly moving away from paper books toward tablets and laptops. With all of the necessary information at their fingertips, students can now learn at their own pace and have a nearly identical educational experience in their homes and in the classroom. And while this trend provides increased convenience for students, it also makes the teaching process more efficient for professors. The surge in connected technology means that instructors do not need to manually grade tests on paper or perform other routine tasks. Instead, professors can focus on the actual, personal instruction that is most valuable to their students. Devices connected to the cloud allow professors to gather data on their students and then determine which ones need the most individual attention and care. These statistics also let teachers properly adjust their lesson plans for future classes. Outside of the classroom, universities can use connected devices to monitor their students, staff, and resources and equipment at a reduced operating cost, which saves everyone money. And these tracking capabilities should also lead to safer campuses. For example, students would be able to keep track of connected buses and adjust their schedules accordingly, which would prevent them from spending unnecessary time in potentially dangerous areas.
Many benefits
Joe Peters is a Baltimore-based freelance writer and an ultimate tech enthusiast, July 3, 2016, What will be the Impact of IoT on education? http://www.geektime.com/2016/03/07/what-will-be-the-impact-of-iot-on-education/
The Internet of Things would allow for better operational efficiency in every type of learning environment. Connected devices could enable educators to perform dynamic classroom interventions. Logging attendance would be simplified if students had a wearable device that tracks ECG patterns. EEG sensors could be used to monitor students’ cognitive activities during lessons. Classroom discipline would be much more easily enforced with vibrations that are similar to a silent notification on a mobile phone. These devices could redirect a student’s attention, such as giving a warm-up exercise to do on their device. During examinations, a student’s identity could be verified through their brain waves tracked by a wearable.
In 2014, U.S.-based education technology (EdTech) companies raised $1.2 billion over 357 venture rounds, which is less than 3 percent out of $48.3 billion in total venture funding. Such unfavorable results are mainly due to the fact that there are not as many exits in this area. However, we are only beginning to scratch the surface of what education will look like in the future, but funding for more technology should be increased in order to make considerable impacts on IoT and education.
Many examples of how the IoT will benefit education
Jeannette Cajide, November 11, 2015, Huffington Post, The Connected School: How it Could Impact Education, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeanette-cajide/the-connected-school-how-_b_8521612.html
Internet of Things, a term coined in 1999 by Kevin Ashton while working at P&G, is a network of physical objects that are connected to the internet. These objects such as sensors, smartphones, watches and electronics will transmit data via “The Internet” to the cloud providing a “smarter” service or experience for the user. This is what we mean by “smart technology.”We do not have to wait until 2020 to experience the smart home, the smart car, or go to work at a smart office, as those technologies already in the market or in development. But how soon before our children or we attend a smart school? How will the Internet of Things eventually impact education in the USA?In 2014, U.S. based education technology (EdTech) companiesraised$1.2 billion in funding across 357 venture rounds. To put this in perspective, total venture fundingin 2014was $48.3 billion. This means we are investing less than 3 percent into education related technology. It is quite possible, from a VC’s perspective, the reason they don’t invest in more EdTech opportunities is because there are fewer exits in this space. LinkedIn’s $1.5 billion acquisition of tutorial and training site Lynda and textbook startup Chegg’s IPO’s in 2013, trading 40 percent below its IPO price, are the exceptions, not the rule in EdTech.This means in all likelihood, for the education system in the USA to make the leap to a connected school, school districts and state education agencies will need to drive the digital strategy and appropriately budget and allocate funding to create these products and related “smart schools.”Smart technology will impact education in the following two ways:Students will learn faster.I am a notetaker. I highlight, make margin notes, and like to create notecards. This is an inefficient process, but it was how I was taught to study. By using digital highlighters such asScanmarker’s Air, it could have shortened the process. This digital highlighter wirelessly transfers printed text into an application or web browser — it is 30 times faster than if I were to write by hand. This tool does not only apply to education; but it can also be used by lawyers, researchers, and avid readers who still like to take notes (that’s me!)Teachers will be able to do their job more efficiently.Teachers work hard. Sure they get the summers off but they can put in 12 to 14 hour days during the school year. How can we help them do their job more efficiently? From designing the curriculum, to teaching, to grading papers and communicating with parents — technology will help — but only if it is made available to them. For the most part, it is still cost prohibitive but in the next five years, this will be an inevitable expense.Digital content means easier sharing and more collaboration amongst teachers. They can build on each other’s knowledge. It also means teachers can move through the material more quickly because they are not wasting time writing letter by letter on a chalkboard or whiteboard. It also means he or she can share lecture notes with students with very little effort. An innovator in this space isSMART, which created the world’s first interactive whiteboard in 1991. Like the digital highlighter, SMART seems to be targeting both businesses and education. I looked online for resellers, and the cost for a SMART Board can range from $2,000 to $5,000 — but I also found additional value in their knowledge exchange market, an app store for SMART Boards, which they are building for both education and collaboration. A more affordable option for education is IPEVO’swireless interactive boardavailable for $169. IPEVO claims to have 46 percent market share in K-12 schools across the USA. Even dry-erase whiteboard paint maker, Ideapaint, joined the digital era by creating an app calledBounce— which aims to bridge the offline and online user experience.Companies like SMART and Scanmarker are “smartly” marketing to both education and business customers. IBM announced last month that will be investing $3 billion into IoT and education over the next four years. Lower cost entrants, like IPEVO, are making it easier for teachers to turn their classroom into a smart classroom. If you are a teacher or school district who wants to learn more about how to make your classroom more connected, the Department of Education has anOffice of Education Technologyguide on funding digital technology. We are only beginning to scratch the surface of what the future of education will look like – you might as well get ready for it.
IoT can be used to improve education and campus security
Zebra Technologies, 2016, How the Internet of Things is Transforming Education, http://www.zatar.com/sites/default/files/content/resources/Zebra_Education-Profile.pdf
Technology has changed the educational landscape. From the use of tablets in the classroom to the proliferation of open universities, education looks very different today. However, these advancements are minimal compared to the sea change that’s to come as the Internet of Things (IoT) reaches critical mass. The IoT—which connects people, processes, devices and data—enhances the volume and value of information we can collect, allowing educators and administrators to turn data into actionable insight like never before. With the advent of mobile technologies, schools can now keep track of important resources, create smarter lesson plans, design safer campuses, improve access to information and much more. From K-12 up to postgraduate programs, the IoT has the potential to impact every aspect of student learning. As educational organizations begin to leverage solutions like cloud computing and radio frequency identification (RFID) across an IoT platform, they’re able to capture, manage and analyze Big Data. This insight provides stakeholders with a real-time view of students, staff and assets. It is this asset intelligence that enables institutions to make more informed decisions in an effort to improve student learning experiences, operational efficiency and campus security
Student-specific lesson plans can be cereated and modified based on collected data
Zebra Technologies, 2016, How the Internet of Things is Transforming Education, http://www.zatar.com/sites/default/files/content/resources/Zebra_Education-Profile.pdf
The pressure is on to prepare students for an increasingly competitive workplace in a hyper-connected world. With the IoT, institutions can improve educational outcomes by providing richer learning experiences and by gaining real-time, actionable insight into student performance. Whether it’s a tablet they brought from home or a school-issued laptop, more and more student learning is taking place on wireless devices. These online lesson plans have the potential to feature highly engaging interactive content. However, they also have the potential to “crash” archaic internet networks. To prepare, schools must upgrade to secure, high-speed wireless networks that can accommodate bandwidth-intensive programs being run on a multitude of devices. This investment will pay off in spades. With e-learning applications, students can work at their own pace, which allows the teacher to provide one-toone instruction to those who need it most. Additionally, assessments can become more seamless, less manual and time-intensive. Educators no longer have to grade every exam or feed Scantron sheets into a machine. Instead, they can spend time focusing on the learning activities that have the biggest impact on students. Finally, when connected to the cloud, these e-learning technologies can collect data on student performa
IoT improves the operational efficiency of educational institutions
Zebra Technologies, 2016, How the Internet of Things is Transforming Education, http://www.zatar.com/sites/default/files/content/resources/Zebra_Education-Profile.pdf
Educational institutions are comprised of many moving parts. In order to succeed at what they do, they must be able to keep track of students, staff and resources, all while keeping costs in check. This is possible by leveraging enabling technologies that can easily keep track of people, assets and activities. Previously elusive resources—such as projectors or lab equipment—can be equipped with RFID readers so that their whereabouts are visible at all times. Real-time visibility means teachers no longer have to spend valuable time looking for these items and can instead focus on more importanttasks like teaching and planning curricula. Additionally, educators can monitorthe condition of their resources in real time so that if need be, items can bereplaced with minimal disruption to the school day.Tracking devices can ensure that students are accounted for in real time,minimizing time-consuming activities like recording attendance. With RFIDequippedbackpacks, students can be automatically checked in as they boardthe bus. Similarly, the proliferation of smart ID cards and wristbands meansstudents can be automatically marked “present” when they walk through theclassroom door.With mobile computing solutions, operational roadblocks can be dealt within real time. A maintenance worker who stumbles upon a broken vendingmachine can use a handheld device to notify school officials of the problem,order the parts needed and/or request additional repair services—while inthe field.
IoT improves campus safety
Zebra Technologies, 2016, How the Internet of Things is Transforming Education, http://www.zatar.com/sites/default/files/content/resources/Zebra_Education-Profile.pdf
School officials are under increased pressure to ensure their campuses are safe. A surge in school emergencies over the last several years, along with the growing fears over bullying and violence, mean it’s more important than ever to keep students safe. The IoT’s ability to track objects, students and staff, and to connect devices across campus(es) brings a new level of safety to institutions. A GPS-enabled bus system means that bus routes can be tracked, so that parents and administrators can know where a given bus is at any given time. In addition to making the school journey safer for students (and a lot less stressful for parents), students can be notified when the bus is near their pickup location; no more waiting outside for a late bus.
D cards and wristbands allow educational organizations to store the last-known location of a student or visitor, helping to ensure the right people are accessing the right areas on campus. They also enable cashless payments at the school cafeteria or campus store, which creates a more streamlined transaction and has the potential to discourage bullying and theft. Finally, the convergence of campus communications allows staff to react more quickly in an emergency situation. By connecting laptops, smartphones and two-way radios, staff can instantly talk, text or send an email to any other device in the network. For example, a security guard who spots a fight can notify teachers and administrators immediately, with one simple action. Now, help can come right away, and an escalation of violence can be avoided. The IoT stands to dramatically change the way institutions operate, protecting valuable assets and enhancing student learning at every level. In addition to the immediate benefits outlined above, educational institutions can harness long-term value from these technologies by analyzing the resulting data to better plan resource allocation, curricula and safety procedures in the years to come
Oil Extraction
IoT makes expanded oil extraction possible
Michael Chui is a senior fellow with the McKinsey Global Institute, Markus Löffler is a principal in McKinsey’s Stuttgart office, and Roger Roberts is a principal in the Silicon Valley office, March 2010, The Internet of Things, http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/the-internet-of-things DOA: 9-25-16
In the oil and gas industry, for instance, the next phase of exploration and development could rely on extensive sensor networks placed in the earth’s crust to produce more accurate readings of the location, structure, and dimensions of potential fields than current data-driven methods allow. The payoff: lower development costs and improved oil flows.
Health Care
Many Ways IoT improves health care
Michael Chui is a senior fellow with the McKinsey Global Institute, Markus Löffler is a principal in McKinsey’s Stuttgart office, and Roger Roberts is a principal in the Silicon Valley office, March 2010, The Internet of Things, http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/the-internet-of-things DOA: 9-25-16
In health care, sensors and data links offer possibilities for monitoring a patient’s behavior and symptoms in real time and at relatively low cost, allowing physicians to better diagnose disease and prescribe tailored treatment regimens. Patients with chronic illnesses, for example, have been outfitted with sensors in a small number of health care trials currently under way, so that their conditions can be monitored continuously as they go about their daily activities. One such trial has enrolled patients with congestive heart failure. These patients are typically monitored only during periodic physician office visits for weight, blood pressure, and heart rate and rhythm. Sensors placed on the patient can now monitor many of these signs remotely and continuously, giving practitioners early warning of conditions that would otherwise lead to unplanned hospitalizations and expensive emergency care. Better management of congestive heart failure alone could reduce hospitalization and treatment costs by a billion dollars annually in the United States.
IoT will improve health care and city planning
Janna Anderson and Lee Raine, 2014, The Internet of Things Will Thrive by 2025, http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/05/14/internet-of-things/ Pew Research Center DOA: 9-28-16
Tucker went on to forecast the benefits of all this connected computing: “One positive effect of ‘ubiquitous computing,’ as it used to be called, will be much faster, more convenient, and lower-cost medical diagnostics. This will be essential if we are to meet the health care needs of a rapidly aging Baby Boomer generation. The Internet of Things will also improve safety in cities, as cars, networked to one another and their environment, will better avoid collisions, coordinate speed, etc. We will all be able to bring much more situational intelligence to bear on the act of planning our day, avoiding delays (or unfortunate encounters), and meeting our personal goals. We are entering the telemetric age—an age where we create information in everything that we do. As computation continues to grow less costly, we will incorporate more data-collecting devices into our lives.”
Health applications of I o T will expand life spans
Janna Anderson and Lee Raine, 2014, The Internet of Things Will Thrive by 2025, http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/05/14/internet-of-things/ Pew Research Center DOA: 9-28-16
David-Michel Davies, executive director, The Webby Awards and Co-Founder of Internet Week, said, “Our overall health – lifespan, disease rate and quality of life – will greatly improve by 2025 due in large part to the Internet of Things. One of the big opportunities it will provide is the ability to close our own feedback loop – to incorporate real-time biometric feedback into our lives. Even today, in 2014, relatively rudimentary and simple apps like Nike + and 24/7 (an app that uses the Motion x chip in the iPhone to passively tracks steps, sleep pattern etc.) is supporting improved fitness and quality of life for millions of people. When these technologies are not constrained to your smart phone, but part of a powerful biometric monitoring program that keeps track of your vital signs every second of the day and is accessible to you, your personal medical community and sophisticated computational power and software that can not only help you view the information and understand it, but also compare it to vast sets of other data so that it becomes not just an indicator of health or sickness, but even predictive – we will live much, much longer…. What’s interesting to me is what happens when we look like a fifty year old at the age of 85? What happens when we have healthy hearts and bodies when we are 90? The societal implications and opportunities are incredible but also scary. One can imagine becoming a wiser society, with elderly and experienced people remaining active long after they retire today, their perspective and life experience around longer with a greater opportunity to impact the world and shape their families. A traditional three generational family extending into four generations more consistently. That is exciting! But longer lives could also mean new kinds of diseases and sicknesses, ones that our bodies have not dealt with yet because we have, to date, died before their onset. These ailments may be worst – more traumatic, more costly and more damaging to society – than the ones we face today.”
IoT enables real time medical care
Patrick Tusker, 2014, The Naked Future, Kindle edition, page number at end of card, Patrick Tucker is a science journalist and editor. Tucker’s writing on emerging technology has appeared in The Atlantic, Defense One, Quartz, National Journal, Slate, Salon, The Sun, MIT Technology Review, Wilson Quarterly, The Futurist, BBC News Magazine, and Utne Reader, among other publications. Tucker, Patrick. The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? . Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
For patients and graying baby boomers, the Internet of Things is ushering in a revolution in real-time medical care. It is alive inside the chest of Carol Kasyjanski, a woman who in 2009 became the second human being to receive a Bluetooth-enabled pacemaker that allows her heart to dialogue directly with her doctor. 8 The first was former U.S. vice president Dick Cheney, who received one in 2007, but never activated the device’s broadcasting capability for fear of hackers.
IoT reduces health care errors
Patrick Tusker, 2014, The Naked Future, Kindle edition, page number at end of card, Patrick Tucker is a science journalist and editor. Tucker’s writing on emerging technology has appeared in The Atlantic, Defense One, Quartz, National Journal, Slate, Salon, The Sun, MIT Technology Review, Wilson Quarterly, The Futurist, BBC News Magazine, and Utne Reader, among other publications. Tucker, Patrick. The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? . Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
In 2012 University of Pennsylvania researcher David Almeida and some colleagues published a paper showing that the most important predictor of a future chronic health condition (aside from smoking, drinking, and engaging in conspicuously unhealthy behavior) was overreacting to routine, psychologically taxing incidents. When they interviewed subjects about how little stressors such as car breakdowns, angry e-mails, small disappointments, the little annoyances of modern life, affected them emotionally, they found that “for every one unit increase in affective reactivity [people reporting a big emotional change resulting from the stressful event], there was a 10% increase in the risk of reporting a chronic health condition 10 years later.” 10 The researchers didn’t find that people who were exposed to more stressful experiences were more likely to develop a chronic health condition. Rather, the increase was isolated to people who reported feeling very different emotionally on a day that they encountered a stressor than on a day when they did not. 11 This is a classic inside-view problem. Very few people keep track of how they react to little stressors. The costs of keeping such a record, in terms of inconvenience, are too high. Yet hidden in those reactions may be powerful clues to our future health. If it were easy and cheap to keep that data around, and if we were able to make sense of it quickly, we would surely keep a log of how stressed we felt at any given moment. When I asked Kahneman via Skype at the Singularity Summit 2012 what he thought of the self-quant trend, he was guardedly optimistic about the potential applications of quantification techniques for physicians. Adopting the outside view will never be intuitive, he said. “But at least in principle there is an opportunity for people to discover regularities in their own lives. There will be an opportunity to look at the outcome of similar cases . . . A physician could have intuitions about a patient, but supplementing that intuition with instantly available statistics will likely result in fewer mistakes” (emphasis added). Tucker, Patrick. The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? (p. 42). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
Many health applications
Klouse & Werilaard, 2016
Sander Klous1, 3 and Nart Wielaard2 (1) Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, North Holland, The Netherlands (2) Nart BV, Haarlem, North Holland, The Netherlands (3) Management Consulting, KPMG, Amstelveen, North Holland,, The Netherlands Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 396-401). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
Compare this to the example of The Climate Corporation, which we mentioned earlier in this book: clearly, we are capable of providing farmers with accurate advice, based on the composition of their soil and predictive weather models, on how to optimize their crops, but we still use a scattergun approach where our health is concerned. There should be other ways and in this chapter we will investigate them. We will subsequently address: A radical tailored approach to medical treatments and diagnoses. It’s the holy grail in health care: to provide drugs and medical advice that are completely tailored to your personal lifestyle and DNA. Tailor-made approaches are getting closer, but require a totally different setup for our health care systems; From health care to self-care. By using modern technology (e.g. sensors), we can obtain more insight into our movement patterns, diets, and our bodies’ parameters. This will put us much more in the driver’s seat of health care. We will be able to actively improve our health and we can continue to provide care to the elderly and people with chronic illnesses properly and affordably; From care to prevention. Access to proper medical care is not enough. We can build a world in which we focus on preventing health problems. For this to become a reality, the entire sector— from health insurers to general practitioners to pharmaceutical companies— has to get involved. Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 919-923). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition
Many positive health care benefits
Federal Trade Commission (FTC), January 2015, Internet of Things: Privacy & Security in A Connected World, https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/federal-trade-commission-staff-report-november-2013-workshop-entitled-internet-things-privacy/150127iotrpt.pdf
Most participants agreed that the IoT will offer numerous, and potentially revolutionary,benefits to consumers.25 One area in which these benefits appear highly promising is healthcare.26 For example, insulin pumps and blood-pressure cuffs that connect to a mobile app canenable people to record, track, and monitor their own vital signs, without having to go to adoctor’s office. This is especially beneficial for aging patients, for whom connected healthdevices can provide “treatment options that would allow them to manage their health care athome without the need for long-term hospital stays or transition to a long-term care facility.”27Patients can also give caregivers, relatives, and doctors access to their health data through theseapps, resulting in numerous benefits. As one panelist noted, connected health devices can“improve quality of life and safety by providing a richer source of data to the patient’s doctor fordiagnosis and treatment[,] . . . improve disease prevention, making the healthcare system moreefficient and driving costs down[,] . . . [and] provide an incredible wealth of data, revolutionizingmedical research and allowing the medical community to better treat, and ultimately eradicate, diseases.”28 Recent studies demonstrate meaningful benefits from connected medical devices. One workshop participant said that “one of the most significant benefits that we have from this connected world [is] the ability to . . . draw the patients in and engage them in their own care.”29 Another participant described a clinical trial showing that, when diabetic patients used connected glucose monitors, and their physicians received that data, those physicians were five times more likely to adjust medications, resulting in better disease management and substantial financial savings for patients. He stated that the clinical trial demonstrated that diabetic patients using the connected glucose monitor reduced their average blood sugar levels by two points and that, by comparison, the Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) considers medications that reduce blood sugar by as little as one half point to be successful.
Climate
Climate Control
Real time data collection enables appropriate climate modeling necessary to avoid human extinction
Patrick Tusker, 2014, The Naked Future, Kindle edition, page number at end of card, Patrick Tucker is a science journalist and editor. Tucker’s writing on emerging technology has appeared in The Atlantic, Defense One, Quartz, National Journal, Slate, Salon, The Sun, MIT Technology Review, Wilson Quarterly, The Futurist, BBC News Magazine, and Utne Reader, among other publications. Tucker, Patrick. The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? . Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
Because we live in the age of the vaunted entrepreneur, when even our most nominally right-leaning politicians make frequent habit of praising the free market and all its wondrous efficiencies while denigrating government as bloated and inefficient, we may draw from the story of Freidberg and von Neumann the simple yet wrong conclusion that business was able to adapt to our rapidly changing climate where government failed to arrest it because the business mentality is inherently superior to that of the public servant. We would do well to remember that Climate Corporation does not have to take a direct stance on man-made climate change to sell its product. It’s a company that provides a real and valuable service but it isn’t fixing climate change so much as profiting from a more advanced understanding of it. Higher corn prices and decreased crops can create profit but they do not— in themselves— create value. Ultimately, we will have to fix this problem, and government will have to be part of that solution. 19 If not for the wisdom, creativity, and genius of people who weren’t afraid to be labeled public servants, there would be no international satellite data for NOAA to help Climate Corporation improve its models. There may not even be computers, as we understand them, on which to write code or do calculations. Today, in many respects, we are moving backward on climate change even as we have learned to profit by it. But we are finally just beginning to understand what climate change means to us as individuals, which, perhaps ironically, could be the critical step in addressing the greatest problem we have ever faced. As the big data present becomes the naked future, we may still be able to save our species as Tucker, Patrick. The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? (p. 86). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
Climate Change O/W Privacy
Acting to stop climate change is critical to reduce racial and economic inequality and promote justice
Hoerner 8(J. Andrew, Former director of Research at the Center for a Sustainable Economy, Director of Tax Policy at the Center for Global Change at the University of Maryland College Park, and editor of Natural Resources Tax Review. He has done research on environmental economics and policy on behalf of the governments of Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United States. Andrew received his B.A. in Economics from Cornell University and a J.D. from Case Western Reserve School of Law—AND—Nia Robins—former inaugural Climate Justice Corps Fellow in 2003, director of Environmental Justice and Climate Change Initiative “A Climate of Change African Americans, Global Warming, and a Just Climate Policy for the U.S.” July 2008, http://www.ejcc.org/climateofchange.pdf)
Everywhere we turn, the issues and impacts of climate change confront us. One of the most serious environmental threats facing the world today, climate change has moved from the minds of scientists and offices of environmentalists to the mainstream. Though the media is dominated by images of polar bears, melting glaciers, flooded lands, and arid desserts, there is a human face to this story as well. Climate change is not only an issue of the environment; it is also an issue of justice and human rights, one that dangerously intersects race and class. All over the world people of color, Indigenous Peoples and low-income communities bear disproportionate burdensfrom climate change itself, from ill-designed policies to prevent it, and from side effects of the energy systems that cause it. A Climate of Change explores the impacts of climate change on African Americans, from health to economics to community, and considers what policies would most harm or benefit African Americans—and the nation as a whole. African Americans are thirteen percent of the U.S. population and on average emit nearly twenty percent less greenhouse gases than non-Hispanic whites per capita. Though far less responsible for climate change, African Americans are significantly more vulnerable to its effects than non- Hispanic whites. Health, housing, economic well-being, culture, and social stability are harmed from such manifestations of climate change as storms, floods, and climate variability. African Americans are also more vulnerable to higher energy bills, unemployment, recessions caused by global energy price shocks, and a greater economic burden from military operations designed to protect the flow of oil to the U.S. Climate Justice: The Time Is Now Ultimately, accomplishing climate justice will require that new alliances are forged and traditional movements are transformed. An effective policy to address the challenges of global warming cannot be crafted until race and equity are part of the discussion from the outset and an integral part of the solution. This report finds that: Global warming amplifies nearly all existing inequalities. Under global warming, injustices that are already unsustainable become catastrophic. Thus it is essential to recognize that all justice is climate justice and that the struggle for racial and economic justice is an unavoidable part of the fight to halt global warming. Sound global warming policy is also economic andracial justice policy.Successfully adopting a sound global warming policy will do as much to strengthen the economies of low-income communities and communities of color as any other currently plausible stride toward economic justice. Climate policies that best serve African Americans also best serve a just and strong United States. This paper shows that policies well-designed to benefit African Americans also provide the most benefit to all people in the U.S. Climate policies that best serve African Americans and other disproportionately affected communities also best serve global economic and environmental justice. Domestic reductions in global warming pollution and support for such reductions in developing nations financed by polluter-pays principles provide the greatest benefit to African Americans, the peoples of Africa, and people across the Global South. A distinctive African American voice is critical for climate justice. Currently, legislation is being drafted, proposed, and considered without any significant input from the communities most affected. Special interests are represented by powerful lobbies, while traditional environmentalists often fail to engage people of color, Indigenous Peoples, and low-income communities until after the political playing field has been defined and limited to conventional environmental goals. A strong focus on equity is essential to the success of the environmental cause, but equity issues cannot be adequately addressed by isolating the voices of communities that are disproportionately impacted. Engagement in climate change policy must be moved from the White House and the halls of Congress to social circles, classrooms, kitchens, and congregations. The time is now for those disproportionately affected to assume leadership in the climate change debate, to speak truth to power, and to assert rights to social, environmental and economic justice. Taken together, these actions affirm a vital truth that will bring communities together: Climate Justice is Common Justice. African Americans and Vulnerability In this report, it is shown that African Americans are disproportionately affected by climate change. African Americans Are at Greater Risk from Climate Change and Global Warming Co-Pollutants ¶• The six states with the highest African American population are all in the Atlantic hurricane zone, and are expected to experience more intense storms resembling Katrina and Rita in the future.
Technological advancement is the only way to solve these devastating impacts
David C. Mowerya et all, ‘10 (Richard R. Nelsonb, c, Ben R. Martind, a Haas School of Business, U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States b The Earth Institute of Columbia University, United States c University of Manchester, United Kingdom d SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, United Kingdom, “Technology policy and global warming: Why new policy models are needed (or why putting new wine in old bottles won’t work)”, Research Policy Volume 39, Issue 8, October 2010, Pages 1011–1023)
The growing urgency of the global climate challenge has triggered a lively debate in Washington DC, London, and other national capitals over the design of policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. While there is no consensus on this, most informed participants in the policy debate believe that success in this effort will require the development of new technologies, and that strong governmental technology policy is an essential component of any portfolio of policies aiming to stop and reverse global warming. Many supporters of government action argue that the problem is so great, the need for new environmentally friendly technologies so urgent, and the time remaining for implementation of solutions so limited, that a “Manhattan Project” or an “Apollo Program” is needed.
Advances in technology are needed to improve society
Williams & Srnicek 13(Alex, PhD student at the University of East London, presently at work on a thesis entitled 'Hegemony and Complexity', Nick, PhD candidate in International Relations at the London School of Economics, Interviewed by C Derick Varn & Dario Cankovich, at The North Star, “The Speed of Future Thought: C. Derick Varn and Dario Cankovich Interview Alex Williams and Nick Srnicek”, http://www.thenorthstar.info/?p=9240)
Our conclusion that post-capitalist planning is required stems from the theoretical failures of market socialism as well as from our own belief that a planned system can distribute goods and resources in a more rational way than the market system. This differs from previous experiments with such a system in rejecting both the techno-utopian impulse of much recent writing on post-capitalism, and the centralised nature of the Soviet system. With regards to the former – we valorise technology not simply as a means to solve problems,but also as a weapon to wield in social struggles. So we reject any Silicon Valley-ish faith in technology – a problem that the liberal left often falls into. On the other hand, we reject any discourse of authenticity which sees technology as an aberration or as the source of contemporary problems – a problem that the proper left often falls into. The question has to be ‘how can we develop, design and use technology in a way which furthers leftist goals?’ This means thinking how infrastructures, data analytics, logistics networks, and automation can all play a role in building the material platform for a post-capitalist system. The belief that our current technologies are intrinsically wedded to a neoliberal social system is not only theoretically obsolete, but also practically limiting. So without thinking technology is sufficient to save us, we nevertheless believe that technology is a primary area where tools and weapons for struggle can be developed. With regards to the centralised nature of planning, it should be clear to everyone that the Soviet system was a failure in many regards. The issue here is to learn from past experiments such as GOSPLAN, and from theoretical proposals such as Parecon and Devine’s democratic planning. Particularly inspiring here is the Chilean experiment, Cybersyn, which contrary to the stereotype of a planned economy, in fact attempted to build a system which incorporated worker’s self-autonomy and factory-level democracy into the planned economy. There remain issues here about the gender-bias of the system (the design of the central hub being built for men, for instance), yet this experiment is a rich resource for thinking through what it might mean to build a post-capitalist economy. And it should be remembered that Cybersyn was built with less than the computing power of a smartphone. It is today’s technology which offers real resources for organising an economy in a far more rational way than the market system does. It has to be recognised then that communism is an idea that was ahead of its time. It is a 21st century idea that was made popular in the 20th century and was enacted by a 19th century economy.
Banking
Iot Improves Banking
Bank applications improve consumer spending and investment decisions
Adam Thierer, Senior Research Fellow, Mercatus Center at George Mason University, The Internet of Things and Wearable Technology: Addressing Privacy and Security Concerns without Derailing Innovation, 21 RICH. J.L. & TECH. 6 (2015), http://jolt.richmond.edu/v21i2/article6.pdf
Providers of personal finance and investment services are considering how wearable technologies might be adapted to better inform consumers of superior spending and investment opportunities
IoT can improve the banking industry in many ways
Penny Crossman, November 19, 2015, http://www.americanbanker.com/news/bank-technology/why-the-internet-of-things-should-be-a-bank-thing-1077911-1.html American Banker
The most obvious IoT application for banks is in payments. In a commonly floated scenario, a customer's refrigerator senses the household has run out of milk and orders a fresh carton from the local grocery store. The payment seamlessly takes place in the background.A good experience would incent the customer to use a bank app for this rather than a built-in payment system. Loyalty programs could flow through such an app, and the bank could collect data that could be used in marketing and customer service."The Internet of Things opens up a wonderful opportunity for us to get into the lives of our customers and segment them even further than we have in the past," Leavell said.For instance, if a bank knows which customers are paying parking garage fees from a BMW versus a Hyundai, those car preferences might indicate a propensity for certain financial products.That brings us to car banking."Cars are interesting to think about for any number of reasons, not the least of which is because many people spend an inordinate amount of time in their cars," said Dominic Venturo, chief innovation officer at U.S. Bank in Minneapolis.Insurance companies have begun using sensors to improve underwriting for collision policies. Down the line, a connected car might not only tell the driver it's time for an oil change, but order the oil and send it, or find a service deal nearby, schedule the maintenance and complete payment when the driver pulls out of the garage."Or imagine driving by a parking spot and your device recognizes you're in a parking spot and texts you to ask if you want to pay," Venturo said.
Driverless cars reduce crashes and improve safety
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
Our cars are getting smarter and eventually they may all drive themselves so that we don’t have to. Autonomous or completely “driverless” vehicles could also have many benefits if they are allowed on the roads. 93 “This new technology has the potential to reduce crashes, ease congestion, improve fuel economy, reduce parking needs, bring mobility to those unable to drive, and over time dramatically change the nature of US travel,” notes the Eno Center for Transportation. 94 “These impacts will have real and quantifiable benefits,” the group notes, because more than 30,000 people die each year in the United States in automobile collisions, and “driver error is believed to be the main reason behind over 90 percent of all crashes.” 95 These driver errors include drunk driving, distracted operators, failure to remain in one’s lane, and failure to yield the right of way. 96 The total annual costs of such accidents amount to over $ 300 billion, or 2 percent of US GDP. 97 “Automation on the roads could be the great public-health achievement of the 21st century,” notes Adrienne LaFrance of the Atlantic, because “nearly 300,000 fatalities [could be] prevented over the course of a decade, and 1.5 million lives saved in a half-century.” 98 More generally, autonomous vehicles could greatly enhance convenience and productivity for average Americans by potentially reducing traffic congestion and freeing up time spent behind the wheel. The US Census Bureau estimates that Americans annually spend over 23.5 billion hours driving to work alone, which equates to over 210 hours per person. That’s time that could be used for productive or recreational purposes. A November 2013 report from Morgan Stanley estimated that autonomous cars could contribute $ 1.3 trillion in annual savings to the US economy, with global savings estimated at more than $ 5.6 trillion. 99 A decline in costs for fuel and accidents, as well as $ 507 billion in annual productivity gains, would drive these savings, notes Morgan Stanley. Ironically, the benefits of intelligent vehicle technologies are so profound that some now want to ban human drivers altogether! 100 Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 1801-1806). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
Disaster Management
IoT will improve disaster management
Ele Times, July 18, 2016, Internet of Things (IoT) for “Effective Disaster Management,” http://www.eletimes.com/technology-news/internet-of-things-technology-news/internet-of-things-iot-for-effective-disaster-management/
Internet of things and disaster management
Besides, the traditional use-cases for the industry that it can offer, the Internet of Things also has the potential to serve a critical, potentially life-saving, role in the event of disaster, natural or otherwise. The mobile, cloud, analytical and social age in which we live today is creating new opportunities to transform traditional emergency and disaster operations and engage with citizens and stakeholders. Thought leaders in this Space are enacting strategies to derive profound advantage from these technology innovations and over time, the influence of these innovations will only continue to grow. By aligning these technologies towards the strategic charter, agencies can attain new levels of speed, responsiveness, quality and agility. Internet of things offers disruptive potential in prevention, preparation, response and recovery phases ofdisaster management. Some of the transformational applications include:
1. Prevent: IOT can be a game changer in prevention of disasters through the following:
• Monitoring can be greatly facilitated using real time Sensor based data. Examples include:
• Vehicles using telematics
• Water levels using sensors
• Sensors to detect Wild fires, tornadoes, earthquakes, cloudbursts and Volcanic activities
Critical infrastructure protection through predictive maintenance of disaster management assets.
Hazard mitigation through monitoring of environment using Sensors for pollutants and contaminants including radioactive Scenarios.
Enabling early Warning monitoring System
2. Preparation: IOT has the potential to streamline preparation efforts.
• Use of Sensor technology to address real time Stock and Supplies replenishment, spares planning and automated indent processing
• Asset track and trace
• Use of complex event processing for notification of an action based oncapturing streaming Sensor data resulting in predictive resource deployment.
3. Response: IOT can facilitate response planning and actions through.
• Vehicle tracking and GIS integration
• Use of sensors to monitor the movement of key personnel
• Using NFC for geo fencing and parameter fencing
• Situational awareness and incident management through Streaming data, unstructured data handling, predictive analysis, big data, Complex eventprocessing and Social medial analytics.
4. Recover: IOT can be a great enabler for recovery efforts and activities through.
• Use of Sensor technology for identification and authentication of beneficiaries
• Use of Smart Cards and RFIDS for relief disbursal
• Create a virtual logistics network that allows hub operators and others to monitor traffic towards and within a hub in real time and facilitatecommunication between all involved parties
The opportunities for application of IOT in disaster management in India are immense. Some of the Specific use cases include management of epidemics like dengue, manmade disasters like accidents in plants, mines and oil Wells, detection of hazardous gases from mines and plants, landslide detection, health monitoring of railway tracksetc. The possibilities are fairly large.
Real Time Situational Awareness – Taming the lag between Information and action during a critical situation, Vast Volumes of information accumulate rapidly. Agency personnel need to quickly react to an ever-evolving situation using incoming information. In addition, there are few other situations in which speed is such a critical component. Real-time access to timely and detailed situational data enables responders to make time-critical decisions in quickly changing situations. First responders are also challenged by the inability to obtain information from a variety of Sources that is managed, exchanged, and utilized between all involved parties. Realtime situational awareness Software provide analytical insight, allowing first responders to understand On-Scene, active emergency situations through interactive, integrateddata analysis and Visualization.
Harnessing big data, analytics, social media and mobility in this sector allows emergency & disaster management organizations to accommodate massive amounts of incoming public Safety data. With the mobile Visual analytics of business intelligence (BI) Solutions, personnel can increase situational awareness and make rapid decisions. Moreover, giving mobile access to that information helps first responders to betteranticipate and respond to rapidly evolving situations.
5.2 Benefits of IOT in disaster management
• Following are the key benefits of application of IOT in disaster management.
• Agencies gain a clear picture of operations with real-time visibility of data
• Agencies can extract current and historic data from multiple Sources; transform it into rapidly accessible, actionable intelligence for faster and better-informed decisions.
• It helps in creating single, federated information hub
• Agencies can build an information backbone that all parties – including government agencies, NGOS, infrastructure operators, and the Community – Can Contribute to and work from.
• It increases collaboration and interoperability – It allows all Stakeholders to Work together more effectively by creating consistent and shareable Workflows, processes, forms, and plans that address disasters and emergencies of all kinds.
• Agencies gain by leveraging cutting-edge technology – through the harnessing of the power of Big Data, cloud computing, mobile technology, and sophisticated yet intuitive analytics to streamline and optimize all emergency management processes.
.3 Use case: Flood monitoring & forecasting using IOT
World Metrological Organization reports that out of majority of all disasters in the world, flooding is one of the most severe disasters affecting the people across the globe. India is one of the worst floods affected country in the world and total Indian rainfall is concentrated over a short monsoon season of four months. As a result, the rivers witness a heavy discharge during these months, leading to widespread floods.
Several States suffer from severe annual flooding. Unfortunately, they do not have an early warning mechanism that would alert the affected regions from the occurrence of a disaster. The existing disaster management mechanism is primarily focused on strengthening rescue and relief arrangements during and after disasters.
Benefits
Many home benefits to the IoT
Federal Trade Commission (FTC), January 2015, Internet of Things: Privacy & Security in A Connected World, https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/federal-trade-commission-staff-report-november-2013-workshop-entitled-internet-things-privacy/150127iotrpt.pdf
Consumers can benefit from the IoT in many other ways. In the home, for example, smart meters can enable energy providers to analyze consumer energy use and identify issues with home appliances, “even alerting homeowners if their insulation seems inadequate compared to that of their neighbors,”31 thus empowering consumers to “make better decisions about how they use electricity.”32 Home automation systems can provide consumers with a “single platform that can connect all of the devices within the home, [with] a single app for controlling them.”33 Connected ovens allow consumers to “set [their] temperatures remotely . . . , go from bake to broil . . . , [and] monitor [their] products from various locations inside . . . and outside [their] home[s].”34 Sensors known as “water bugs” can notify consumers if their basements have flooded, 35 and wine connoisseurs can monitor the temperature in their wine cellars to preserve their finest vintages.36
Smart home products increase crime protection and reduce energy waste
IControl Networks, no date, State of the Smart Home, 2015, https://www.icontrol.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Smart_Home_Report_2015.pdf
It’s evident there is a chasm to bridge between the early adopters and mainstream consumers before we see mass adoption. And while a ‘Jetsons’ lifestyle – which also ofers a three-day work week and a talking dog named Astro – may be more buzzworthy, the fact is that the seemingly ‘boring’ use cases will be the cornerstones of that bridge.It makes sense that home monitoring cameras and connected door locks areamong the most popular devices when you consider that a burglary takes placeevery 14.1 seconds in the U.S. and 56% of break-ins are through the front orback doors1. And with heating and cooling accounting for 48% of energy use ina typical home2, we understand why connected thermostats topped the list ofthe most popular products this year.Taking into account population size of the 25+ age groups in the U.S. and Canada, this translates to more than 114 million people who plan to buy smart home products this year. Younger adults (those aged 45 and younger) believe the most in the power and the future of the smart home, and will be key to ushering in the next generation of connected consumers
Smart homes enable elder care
IControl Networks, no date, State of the Smart Home, 2015, https://www.icontrol.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Smart_Home_Report_2015.pdf
Smart home technology has the potential to help seniors live happier, easier lives, and can be a great resource for family members to keep an eye on their aging parents – both of which are scenarios consumers are starting to notice. Nearly 50% of all consumers say they would sleep better at night if their parents or grandparents had a smart home – a number that is significantly higher among younger generations, as well as those who identify themselves as parents. In fact, 72% of consumers aged 25-34 and 74% of parents say they would sleep better at night if their parents or grandparents had smart home technology. That’s nearly three out of every four consumers surveyed among these demographics – a number too large to ignore and an opportunity waiting to happen within the smart home industry.
Emergency Response
Iot will improve emergency medical response
Niam Yaraghi, is a fellow in the Brookings Institution’s Center for Technology Innovation March 25, 2016, Alternative Perspectives on the Internet of Things, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2016/03/25/alternative-perspectives-on-the-internet-of-things/ DOA: 10-21-16
Health care is one of the most exciting application areas for IoT. Imagine that your Fitbit could determine if you fall, are seriously hurt, and need to be rushed to hospital. It automatically pings the closest ambulance and sends a brief summary of your medical status to the EMT personnel so that they can prepare for your emergency services even before they reach the scene. On the way, the ambulance will not need to use sirens to make way since the other autonomous vehicles have already received a notification about approaching ambulance and clear the way while the red lights automatically turn green.
Costs
IoT lowers health care costs
Bob Violino is a freelance writer based in New York, July 29, 2013, The Internet of Things Will Mean Really, really big data, http://www.infoworld.com/article/2611319/computer-hardware/the--internet-of-things--will-mean-really--really-big-data.html
"The big driver from our administration and board of directors was to be more cost effective," Cooley says. "Automating the distribution of our medications drives efficiency, keeping down personnel costs, as it's much more efficient than people running all over the hospital to take medications out to the patients each time a prescription is written."The automated bar-code system is designed for patient safety, tracking medications at each step to assure the correct dose is being administered to the right patient."This system is so accurate that pharmacists are required to check only 5 percent of doses leaving the pharmacy, compared to 100 percent before bar-coding," Cooley says.The technology has allowed Great River to cut medication delivery time to patients by 67 percent, from an average of 90 minutes down to 30 minutes. Getting the correct medication to patients faster has improved patient outcomes and reduced the rate of readmission.The technology also cut pharmacy costs by $300,000 annually and provided a one-time inventory savings of $400,000.
Aviation
General Benefits
IoT will dramatically improve aviation
Fabio Segre is the Manager of New Business Development at Embraer, January 18, 2015, How the Internet of Things is Transforming Aviation, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/01/how-the-internet-of-things-is-transforming-aviation/
The Internet of Things promises to have widespread ramifications. In aviation, its effects could include reducing travel time and increasing safety and passenger comfort. However, this opportunity will be realized only with international coordination and with business and government responding to the profound economic and political questions it raises.
Machines will rule the world! Although not exactly as Hollywood proposes.Today there is a strong movement towards the Internet of Things, where machines communicate with other machines to improve our lives. CISCO estimates that there will be 50 billion internet-connected devices by 2020 − more than six times the world’s population. Imagine all these devices connected in a very smart way, “thinking” and planning. Everything will be bigger, better, faster and cheaper than ever before.
Nowhere is this truer than in my own industry, aviation. The Internet of Things promises a new vision of aviation operations and business models.
Optimized routes − New software is already being developed to enhance the monitoring of planes and to allow them to take “free routes” outside predefined air corridors. When airplanes are connected to each other and to points on the land, they will be able to communicate with each other to calculate ahead of time where their flight trajectories intersect so that accidents can be avoided. Taking the shortest route to their destination will significantly reduce travel time and save fuel and carbon emissions.
Optimized traveller experience − Satellite navigation systems will be much more accurate than the current radar and radio navigation systems, meaning flights will nearly always be exactly on time. Satellite navigation is already beginning with the Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) system, for which some airplanes must have the necessary equipment fitted in Europe by 2017 and in the United States by 2020. The passenger experience will be further improved by “smart airports” with more speedy and efficient check-in, security and customs procedures. Dubai is among several airports already offering smart gates with automatic identification. Security systems will know to expect a passenger at a specific time and manage clearance without queues; flights will be ready on time because aircraft systems will have been remotely inspected and repaired where necessary, based on systems health monitoring, meaning no more airplane delays at the gate; the aircraft will provide connection information for passengers during the flight; and ground transportation will be ready at the right time – all in a seamless and transparent way.
New business models − Many companies, even small ones, will have the opportunity to operate globally with local flavours provided by partners around the world. The sharing economy could reach the air travel industry, through individuals being able to easily resell their flight tickets, or places on private jets being rented out.
Increasing number of airborne vehicles − Air transportation needs to become more efficient as the number of travellers grows due to global population growth and the rise of the middle classes in developing countries. Pilot shortage could be a challenge – or perhaps not, as fully automated commercial flights will soon be feasible. Also, drones of varying sizes will be part of daily life – Amazon is already testing them for delivering products, and a range of other uses is imaginable. As the number of airborne vehicles increases rapidly, a much more integrated air traffic management system will be necessary.
To transform this vision into reality, there is still much work to do. For example, machines will need to understand each other, as the Internet of Things will work only if a common language connects all objects in the same system; machines and people will need to be protected against cyberattacks – if planes’ routes are linked and dependent on smart machines, hacking could have catastrophic consequences; governments will need to have a more global mindset and work together.
How can vested interests in the status quo be addressed? Will countries allow planes to travel “freely” in their airspace? Does regulation have to be global, or could it work on a regional basis? Can global regulations realistically be achieved? If certain regions or countries are excluded from the benefits of efficient air transportation enabled by the Internet of Things, will it deepen existing geopolitical divides? Will developing countries be left behind, or might they leapfrog and avoid adaptation costs?
Delays at major US airports alone are projected to cost up to $20 billion by 2020, according to the World Economic Forum’s report Connected World: Hyperconnected Travel and Transportation in Action. The Internet of Things could reduce these costs and create other gains. More efficient air travel could make trade and supply chains more efficient, and increased safety given the reduced scope for human error could unlock the benefits of opening up the skies to more air traffic. Conceivably, more efficiently connecting the countries of the world could even promote global cooperation and integration.
Many aviation benefits
James Pozzi, June 15, 2016, Internet of Things Can be Benificial to Airline MROs, http://aviationweek.com/connected-aerospace/internet-things-can-be-beneficial-airline-mros
With Internet of Things (IoT) technologies all around us, underpinned by a growing array of connected devices working concurrently with one another and automatically capturing data, airlines are increasingly adjusting their operations strategy to reap the benefits of the devices-and-data marriage. Because IoT is not a single entity, but exists in many forms via connected objects and devices such as machinery, computers, and mobile devices, its potential is expansive and can be useful across many areas of an airline’s operation.
Recent IoT-driven projects pioneered by airlines at the customer level have ranged from smart reusable luggage tags to a tool to help travelers manage jet lag. Airline maintenance teams are also getting in on the act. An unprecedented level of data must be managed—thanks to the growing number of sensors on engines and components—and MRO teams now have a way to control this flow. By using new technologies to put this data to work in real time, opportunities exist for airlines to generate greater operational efficiencies and cost reductions.
Helge Sachs, head of corporate innovation management and product development atLufthansa Technik, pinpoints specific areas where airlines can gain a competitive advantage with IoT in their MRO activities. “The real value of IoT for airline maintenance operations lies in smoother operations, increased reliability, better dispatch availability of an aircraft and reducing the number of unscheduled maintenance incidents,” he says. The German MRO’s parent group Lufthansa has been among the most proactive airlines for IoT, pioneering multiple projects related to automation and robotics while launching apps for smartwatches and phones.
On a smaller scale, airline maintenance divisions are steadily introducing mobile applications and devices such as tablets for operations in increasingly digitized hangars. Finnair is one of the many carriers looking at these devices. “IoT applications are very interesting and will offer great opportunities in several areas in the future, especially in our logistics and maintenance operations,” says Ari Kokko, logistics manager at the airline’s MRO division, Finnair Technical Services.
Like many maintenance organizations, Finnair Technical Services has transitioned to a paperless setup in its hangars, and Kokko says it will continue to explore new IoT-driven innovations. “In technical operations we have an ongoing project for developing mobile platforms and tools for aircraft maintenance, which will be a base for our future paperless maintenance operations,” Kokko says. Meanwhile, Anders Engstrom, vice president of maintenance production at Scandinavian Airlines, says the carrier has grown its connectivity via tablets. “We’ve introduced iPads for our maintenance technicians and we’re going to continue that development by using manuals and carrying out procedures in a more digital way,” he says.
Wearables to Drones
Wearable devices increasingly are used by airline flight crews and, much as with mobile apps, they are also becoming mainstays of aircraft hangars. Maintenance and cargo personnel at Japan Airlines began using Google Glass for inspections in 2014, and despite its lack of success in the general consumer market, the device and similar applications are expected to grow in use with airlines.
nother area where IoT technologies could shape airlines’ MRO plans is through the use of drones for maintenance work. Given their connected status with sensors able to send information to a backend database, drones are now included in the IoT trajectory. One the most high-profile projects related to maintenance using drones was at U.K.-based low-cost carrier EasyJet, which began developing drones in 2014 for inspection work on its fleet of Airbus A320 aircraft. One year later, it completed its first check for lightning strikes on one of the narrowbody aircraft at its Luton base. To negate concerns about collisions, an oft-cited argument against using drones for inspection work, the device’s avionics system was programMed to ensure it stays at least 1 meter (3.2 ft.) away from the aircraft it is inspecting.
EasyJet is one of the few airlines to publicize its work with drones, but the technology has yet to become a regular fixture of the world’s airlines. Despite their slow adoption rate, drones are being considered at other carriers’ technical divisions; Cathay Pacific and Air New Zealand are eyeing automated robotics for aircraft inspections.
According to air transport information technology (IT) and communications specialist SITA’s Airline IT Trends Survey published in 2015, 86% of airline respondents said IoT will deliver clear benefits during the next three years, improving the passenger experience at check-in and luggage collection, for example. The report also suggested IoT has become increasingly prioritized in recent years, with 37% stating they have budgeted for investment. Airline maintenance divisions appear to be taking the lead, with 57% of respondents deploying tablets to MRO technicians, compared with just 32% who deployed tablets to cabin staff.
Agriculture
IoT Enhances Agriculture
IoT improves agriculture
Farm Credit Canada, September 7, 2016, The Internet of Things: Implications for Agriculture, https://www.fcc-fac.ca/en/ag-knowledge/technology-and-innovation/the-internet-of-things-implications-for-agriculture.html
IoT on the farm
What could a smart farm look like? Connected field-specific weather stations and soil moisture sensors could alert you when conditions warrant a fungicide application. Controlled tile drainage valves could open or close automatically according to conditions detected by sensors. Performance and yield data can already be transferred wirelessly from many forms of farm equipment. Where this real time data goes and what it will connect to is open-ended. Drones? Robotic tractors? We’ll see. Bio-monitoring devices that track temperature, heart rate, respiration and movement on sentinel animals in livestock herds will provide an early warning for animal health issues or stressors. Appropriate climate and feed adjustments could be initiated automatically or remotely. A bio-monitoring and messaging prototype product for horses calledSeeHorsealready exists. Farmers and employees may also benefit from bio-monitors that help detect fatigue and stress. Connected sensors will automatically monitor inventories of all descriptions – fuel, feed, crop protection products. When levels drop below a prescribed level, an order could be generated automatically.
IoT will massively increase agricultural productivity, feeding the world
Steven Lohr, August 3, 2015, The Internet of Things and the Future of Farming, New Y ork Times, http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/03/the-internet-of-things-and-the-future-of-farming/?_r=0
The third stage, which Mr. Donny calls Ag 3.0, is just getting underway and involves exploiting data from many sources — sensors on farm equipment and plants, satellite images and weather tracking. In the near future, the use of water and fertilizer will be measured and monitored in detail, sometimes on a plant-by-plant basis.
Mr. Donny, who was raised on a family farm in Fresno, Calif., that grew table grapes and raisin grapes, said the data-rich approach to decision making represented a sharp break with tradition. “It’s a totally different world than walking out on the farmland, kicking the dirt and making a decision based on intuition,” he said.
The benefits should be higher productivity and more efficient use of land, water and fertilizer. But it will also, Mr. Donny said, help satisfy the rising demand for transparency in farming. Consumers, he noted, increasingly want to know where their food came from, how much water and chemicals were used, and when and how it was harvested. “Data is the only way that can be done,” Mr. Donny said.
In the United States, major agriculture companies are making sizable investments to position themselves for data-driven farming. John Deere, for example, wants to make the farm tractor a data-control center in the field. Monsanto made a big move with its $930 million purchase in 2013 of Climate Corporation, a weather data-analysis company started by two Google alumni. American farmersare embracing the technology, though warily at times.
Yet the most intriguing use of the technology may well be outside the United States. By 2050, the global population is projected to reach nine billion, up from 7.3 billion today. Large numbers of people entering the middle class, especially in China and India, and adopting middle-class eating habits — like consuming more meat, which requires more grain — only adds to the burden.
To close the food gap, worldwide farm productivity will have to increase from 1.5 tons of grain per acre to 2.5 tons by 2050, according to Mr. Donny. American farm productivity is already above that level, at 2.75 tons of grain per acre.
“But you can’t take the U.S. model and transport it to the world,” Mr. Donny said, noting that American farming is both highly capital-intensive and large scale. The average farm size in the United States is 450 acres. In Africa, the average is about two acres.
“The rest of the world has to get the productivity gains with data,” he said.
The prospect of dirt-cheap sensors, Mr. Donny said, will help, but so will increasingly sophisticated and inexpensive remote imaging from satellites. Heavy machinery and big farms, he insists, will not be needed. Higher yields and less waste, he said, can be achieved with better information on weather, soil conditions and market demand for specific crops — all delivered via cellphone.
“They can skip buying the combine,” he said, “and instead rely on systems like Watson,” referring to IBM’s question-answering cloud service.
One billion undernourished people now
Don Hofstrand, Retired Agriculturall Economist, 2014, Can We Meet the World’s Growing Demand for Food? http://www.agmrc.org/renewable-energy/renewable-energy/can-we-meet-the-worlds-growing-demand-for-food/
Currently there are over one billion chronically undernourished and malnourished people in the world. Seventy five percent of the poor in developing countries live in rural areas and are directly or indirectly tied to agriculture. Despite the large movement of world population from rural to urban predicted over the next 40 years (increase from 50 percent to 70 percent urban), population growth in rural areas is still expected to increase faster than employment opportunities.
FAO expects the number of undernourished and malnourished people to decline by 2050 but hunger will still exist for a large number of people. This will occur even if there are ample supplies of food in the world. Although notable exceptions exist, many hunger situations are not caused by an actual shortage of food. Rather, hunger is caused by the financial inability to buy food. About 20 percent of the world’s population lives on less than $1.25 per day. So this problem is more a sign of poor worldwide income distribution than a worldwide shortage of food.
The situation is exacerbated if there is a shock to the food system and commodity prices escalate. Volatile prices can lead to disruptions of international trade and have a significant impact on food distribution and prices, especially during periods of low reserves. Low-income food deficit countries need to reduce their vulnerability to international agricultural market shocks such as happened in 2008 when the price of commodities rose rapidly.
Demand for food will grow
Don Hofstrand, Retired Agriculturall Economist, 2014, Can We Meet the World’s Growing Demand for Food? http://www.agmrc.org/renewable-energy/renewable-energy/can-we-meet-the-worlds-growing-demand-for-food/
The demand for food is expected to grow substantially by 2050. A major factor for this increase is world population growth. Demographic projections have a high degree of certainty, so projections of future world food needs based on population growth are quite reliable.
The other major factor contributing to this increase is rising incomes of individuals, especially those living in developing countries. Although increasing the incomes of millions of people in the world is a great benefit to those individuals, it does increase food needs and demands on the world’s agricultural resources.
Increasing people’s income is generated by world economic growth, However, long-term projections of future world economic growth are relatively uncertain. Basing expected food needs on projections of future world economic growth has considerable uncertainty.
Growing Population
The rate of population growth increased greatly from the 19th to the 20th Century. The year Lewis and Clark embarked on their historic journey in 1804, world population reached one billion people. World population continued to increase but didn’t reach two billion until 1927, 123 years later. At that point, population started to grow rapidly reaching three billion people in 1960, only 33 years later.
Historic and projected world population from 1965 to 2050 is presented in Figure 1. Four billion was reached in 1974 (14 years later), five billion in 1987 (13 years later) and six billion in 1999 (12 years later).
The rate of increase seems to have reached its peak at the turn of the century and has begun a slow decline. It is projected that an additional 15 years will be required before we reach eight billion and an additional 19 years (2046) before we reach nine billion.
Population changes are due to the relationship between births and deaths. If the number of births equals the number of deaths, population does not change. However, if births exceed deaths, the population grows. Historically, the world had a high birth rate but the population grew slowly because it also had a high death rate (e.g. high infant mortality). With improvements in world health and more people living through their reproductive years, population began to increase because the high level of births continued while the death rate dropped. This situation produced the exponential population explosion of the 20th Century.
The relationship between births and deaths is called the “fertility rate”. Essentially it is the number of children the average woman will give birth to in her lifetime. If a woman has two children, she will have replaced herself and her husband. If she has more than two, population will grow. If she has less than two, population will decline. To calculate the replacement fertility rate we must also take into account mortality from birth to reproductive age. The replacement fertility rate for industrialized countries is about 2.1 but is higher for developing countries because their mortality rate is higher. The world average replacement fertility rate is estimated to be about 2.3 births per woman.
The world’s fertility rate declined from almost 5 births per woman in 1950 to a projected 1.6 births per woman by 2050 (13). The current fertility rate is approaching the replacement fertility rate. The fertility rate and population for selected countries are shown in Table 1. Although China’s one-child policy results in a fertility rate well below replacement, other Asian countries like India and the Philippines are well above replacement. The fertility rate of many European countries is below the developed country replacement rate of 2.1. So, population in several of these countries is expected to decline over the next 40 years. The opposite end of the spectrum is countries in Africa such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo where the fertility rate is well above the replacement rate and population growth is expected to continue into the future.
Although the world’s fertility rate is approaching replacement, population will continue to grow well into the future. It may take several generations for this fertility rate to be fully reflected in the rate of population growth. If the world has been in a period of high population growth, the number of young people of child bearing age will comprise a disproportionately large portion of the population. So population will continue to grow even though the fertility rate drops because the fertility rate will be applied to a disproportionately large share of the population. Population will not stabilize until the age distributions within the population reach equilibrium. This is called the “population lag effect” or “population momentum”. In addition to this effect, the population growth of individual countries may also be impacted by immigration/emigration policies.
Rising Incomes
In addition to population growth, food needs will rise due to the increasing incomes of people in developing countries as they move from low income into the middle class. As incomes increase, people tend to eat fewer grains and increase their consumption of meat and high value foods. This transition requires higher levels of resource use. It takes multiple pounds of grain to produce a pound of meat. So the total pounds of grain consumed per person, directly as grain and indirectly through meat, increases significantly.
Rising incomes are generated by growing world economies. Although projections of future economic growth are more tenuous than projections of population growth, there is general consensus that the world economy will expand in the long-term in spite of the current financial problems in the developed world.
Per capita consumption of meat and milk has increased in both developing and developed countries in recent decades. However, the increase among developing countries has occurred more rapidly. There is room for additional large increases in per capita animal product consumption in developing countries before it catches up to the developed countries.
Food Supply Factors
Now let’s turn to the issues on the supply side of the equation. The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) projects that food and feed production will need to increase by 70 percent by 2050 to meet the world’s food needs. However, predicting food needs and supplies decades into the future involves a lot of uncertainty and estimates can vary substantially.
Let’s look at the global track record over the last 40 years. World agriculture has generally been successful in keeping up with world population growth over the last portion of the 20th Century. But the increase has varied greatly by commodity. Table 2 shows the increase in the top ten commodities in the world (by physical production level) during the last 40 years. Wheat and rice more than doubled in production. Maize experienced a twofold increase and soybeans a fourfold increase. Cassava, an important commodity in developing countries, more than doubled during this time period. Vegetable production increased by 250 percent while potatoes experienced just a modest increase.
Table 2. Increase in World Production of Top Ten Major Commodities (1969 – 2009) (million metric tons)
Crop 1969 2009 Percent Increase
Sugar Cane 538 1,661 209%
Maize 270 819 203%
Wheat 309 686 122%
Rice, paddy 296 685 131%
Cow Milk 358 583 63%
Potatoes 278 330 19%
Vegetables 71 249 251%
Cassava 95 234 146%
Sugar Beets 217 227 5%
Soybeans 42 223 431%
Total 2,474 5,697 130%
Source: U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization
Discussed below are some of the major factors involved in increasing supply. They are increasing yields, expanding cropland area, closing yield gaps and improving efficiency. Our ability to meet the world’s food needs of 2050 depend on our ability to drive these factors.
Increasing Yields and/or Expanding Cropland Area
Looking forward to 2050, the lion’s share of the production increase needs to come from increasing yields. If yield increases are not sufficient to meet demand, pressure will build to expand production area. Even if production area can be expanded sufficiently to meet demand, the environmental damage and greenhouse gas emissions from the expansion will be substantial.
Production area for staple crops has gone through periods of expansion and relative stability over the last 50 years. For seventeen years after the beginning of the green revolution, production area expanded at an annual rate of thirteen million acres per year, as shown in Table 3. Then land area rate of increase declined to a modest four million acres per year for the next twenty years. During this period, commodity prices were low. However, from the beginning of the new millennium until now, production area has been in a period of more rapid expansion of twenty four million acres per year. This corresponds to a period a strong world commodity prices.
Jeff Horwich, Interim host of Marketplace Morning Report and Rob Bailey, Royal Institute of International Affairs, “U.S. drought could have global impact on food prices,” ’12, http://www.marketplace.org/topics/world/us-drought-could-have-global-impact-food-prices
Bailey: Well America is anagricultural superpower as well as a traditional global superpower, so it's the biggest producer of maize in the world, it's the biggest producer of soy beans in the world. So as soon as there's a decrease in U.S. agricultural production, that has massive effectsfor the global economy. These sorts of price impacts could ripple across economies across borders. Horwich: And geopolitically, let's just think back a few years when food prices start to rocket in some parts of the world, crazy things can happen. Bailey: Absolutely, if you think back to 2008 in Haitithe governmentactually fell as a result of riots connected to food prices. Fast forward a couple more years to 2011, the Arab Spring actually was sparkedby initial protests in a number of countries about the price of bread because the price of wheat had gone up in response to export bans following a really bad harvest in Russia and Ukraine after a heat wave and wild fires there. Horwich: Are there any particular flash points that you are looking at this time around? Bailey: The situation in the Middle East remains much the same, there is still huge political vulnerability to a spike in wheat prices. The other thing that the U.S. is having a big impact on is soy bean prices. But if we see a very sharp increase soy bean prices, you can expect meat prices to rise and this could actually have implications for China, quite seriously.
.
Nuclear world war III
FDI 12, Future Directions International, a Research institute providing strategic analysis of Australia’s global interests; citing Lindsay Falvery, PhD in Agricultural Science and former Professor at the University of Melbourne’s Institute of Land and Environment, “Food and Water Insecurity: International Conflict Triggers & Potential Conflict Points,” http://www.futuredirections.org.au/workshop-papers/537-international-conflict-triggers-and-potential-conflict-points-resulting-from-food-and-water-insecurity.html
There is a growing appreciationthat the conflicts in the next century will most likely be fought over a lack of resources.¶ Yet, in a sense, this is not new. Researchers point to the French and Russian revolutions as conflicts induced by a lack of food. More recently, Germany’s World War Two efforts are said to have been inspired, at least in part, by its perceived need to gain access to more food. Yet the general sense among those that attended FDI’s recent workshops, was that the scale of the problem in the future could be significantly greater as a result of population pressures, changing weather, urbanisation, migration, loss of arable land and other farm inputs, and increased affluence in the developing world.¶ In his book, Small Farmers Secure Food, Lindsay Falvey, a participant in FDI’s March 2012 workshop on the issue of food and conflict, clearly expresses the problem and why countries across the globe are starting to take note. .¶ He writes (p.36), “…if people are hungry, especially in cities, the state is not stable – riots, violence, breakdown of law and order and migration result.”¶ “Hunger feeds anarchy.”¶ This view is also shared by Julian Cribb, who in his book, The Coming Famine, writes that if “large regions of the world run short of food, land or water in the decades that lie ahead, then wholesale, bloody wars are liable to follow.” ¶ He continues: “An increasingly credible scenario for World War 3 is not so much a confrontation of super powers and their allies, as a festering, self-perpetuating chain of resource conflicts.” He also says: “The wars of the 21st Century are less likely to be global conflicts with sharply defined sides and huge armies, than a scrappy mass of failed states, rebellions, civil strife, insurgencies, terrorism and genocides, sparked by bloody competition over dwindling resources.”¶ As another workshop participant put it, people do not go to war to kill; they go to war over resources, either to protect or to gain the resources for themselves.¶ Another observed that hunger results in passivity not conflict. Conflict is over resources, not because people are going hungry.¶ A study by the International Peace Research Institute indicates that where food security is an issue, it is more likely to result in some form of conflict. Darfur, Rwanda, Eritrea and the Balkans experienced such wars. Governments, especially in developed countries, are increasingly aware of this phenomenon.¶ The UK Ministry of Defence, the CIA, the US Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Oslo Peace Research Institute, all identify famine as a potential trigger for conflicts and possibly even nuclear war.
Energy Efficiency
IoT Promotes Energy Efficiency
IoT massive increases energy efficiency
Akhil Bhardwaj, 2015, Leveraging the Internet of Things and Analytics for Smart Energy, Tata Consultancy Services, 2015, http://www.tcs.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/White-Papers/BPS-Internet-of-Things-Smart-Energy-Management-1015-1.pdf [Akhil Bhardwaj is a Senior Manager in the Analytics and Insights division of Tata Consultancy Services' (TCS) Business Process Services (BPS) unit. He has over 11 years of experience in providing innovative solutions for a range of analytical problems across domains such as banking, supply chain, retail, and marketing. He is currently working on driving technological transformation in product based analytics. Bhardwaj graduated from the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay and Xavier Labor Relations Institute, Jamshedpur]
The rising cost of energy is causing organizations to evaluate smart ways of savingenergy. Energy suppliers are increasingly penalizing organizations that useinefficient assets or devices with a low power factor. Simultaneously, governmentsare raising the bar for compliance with energy standards and reduction in carbonfootprints. Smart energy management systems (EMS), combined with the Internetof Things (IoT), provide the ideal solution for these pressing challenges bysupporting radical changes in the way energy consumption is monitored andmanaged.This paper examines how the combined power of the IoT and energy managementsystems can revolutionize energy management. It illustrates how these systemsleverage information collected through different devices to automatically controloperational parameters and minimize energy consumption across buildings orcampuses. The paper also highlights the role of analytics in optimizing energymanagement by helping organizations make holistic sense of the large volumes ofdata gathered by various devices.
CONTINUES:
IoT is expected to play a pivotal role in efficient energy management in the future. As people walk into a commercial building, devices and assets will gather important information about their movements. The occupancy of each location at every point of time will also be captured, transmitted, and stored. The control parameter of the assets and devices will be auto adjusted to levels that create ergonomically convenient working conditions and simultaneously optimize the consumption of energy. In offices, unique tagging of desk space to individual employee consumption will further contribute towards efficient management of energy requirements. Artificial lighting in the rooms will be oriented in ways that ensure the total illumination in the room is ergonomically convenient for all the occupants. This will also allow for the best use of the natural light. As the sunlight in the room increases, artificial illumination is automatically reduced so that the total illumination remains constant at the desired ergonomic level. This optimized energy consumption of lighting will be maintained by the energy management system in real time. The results are savings in lighting costs and enhanced life of the lighting equipment. Fire sensors can become active in the event of fire and flash the nearest exit. The same fire exits can detect the number of people in the process of exiting through different routes. The EMS can use this information to develop and highlight routes to streamline traffic through exit routes, ensuring that more people reach safety. With the rising cost of commercial energy, smart energy management systems will be used by organizations for competitive advantage. As the volume of data collected by smart meters increases over time, these systems will increasingly leverage the latent information hidden in the data to make smart choices. Big Data and Hadoop are expected to be extensively used in the process as data scientists begin to mine this data to develop smarter algorithms and decision making tools. Furthermore, robust analytical algorithms will be applied across varied scenarios, to identify and prioritize energy optimization opportunities.
IoT critical to energy management
Carl Weinshenk, Energy Manager Today, November 11, 2015, Eneregy Management: The Internet of Things Changes Everything, http://www.energymanagertoday.com/energy-management-the-internet-of-things-changes-everything-0120273/
The emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) almost certainly is the most important single development in the long evolution of energy management.
The premise of energy management is controlling elements at a fundamental and granular level. The deeper and tighter the control the better. In a world that is saturated in IoT devices, that control will be quite deep. The billions – and eventually trillions – of sensors and other devices that will create a mesh that will facilitate energy management services and procedures that would have been impossible otherwise.
To paraphrase a current presidential contender, the IoT is going to be huge. Yesterday, Gartner released research forecasting 6.4 billion “connected things” in 2016, which is a 30 percent jump from this year. The number will reach 20.8 billion by 2020. Next year, 5.5 million new IoT connections will be made daily.
The IBM Center for Applied Insights compiled other numbers, all of which are similarly impressive: There could be 925 million smart meters, 2.54 million smart lights and 1.53 billion utility-managed connected devices by 2020 (the sources of the figures are, respectively, BI Intelligence, Gartner and Ericsson). Smart grid spending in China alone could total $20 billion by the end of this year (McKinsey & Co.).
No Shortage of Applications
That’s a lot of IoT. And the uses will be many. Some examples illustrate how deeply the IoT will impact energy issues. “IoT can help an organization reduce energy waste in many ways,” wrote Gene Wang, the CEO and co-founder of People Power, a software company that enables smartphone-controlled management of connected devices. “First, by dynamically monitoring overall consumption, an organization can find out when it is spending too much or consuming at abnormally high rates. Equipment or lights can be turned off. HVAC can be optimized for energy savings while maintaining comfort. Consumption can sometimes be scheduled when energy rates are lower. And workers can be incentivized using Energy Challenges to lower their energy usage and win prizes or awards or gain status. All of these activities can be enabled using IoT sensors.”
Organizations understand the natural synergies between the IoT and energy-related issues. GE has made to related announcements during the past three months that illustrate where the smart money thinks energy efficiency and the IoT are headed. In September, the company introduced Predix. It is a cloud-based analytics fabric that will process and make useful the massive amount of data produced by the IoT. Last month, GE created Current, which will harness that horsepower specifically for energy-related initiatives. The two will work together. This is how GE positions the partnership:
Current, powered by GE, will meet the unique needs of a wide range of utility, Commercial & Industrial and municipal customers and provide them with Predix enabled hardware and software they need to be more reliable, efficient, and profitable.
Forbes says that Current will be led by Maryrose Sylverster, who was in charge of GE’s LED business. It already has agreements with Walgreens, Hilton Worldwide, Intel and other familiar names. It is cutting customers’ electric bills by 10 percent to 20 percent. It’s also significant that GE’s battery business has been folded into Current.
Smart Buildings Will Get Smarter
GE is not the only example of the deep connection between the IoT and energy. Another example is the partnership between Intel, Tatung and Elitegroup Computer Systems. They have developed the Smart Building Management System (SBMS). This shows how the IoT is furthering a segment – building management – that has been atop energy managers’ agendas for years. The IoT isn’t, at least in this case, providing something new. Instead, the goal is provide infinitely more powerful items to the existing building management tool chest.
The SMBS, according to the brief, will provide an Elitegroup building with savings of 8 percent this year and 20 percent to 30 percent annually from 2016 onward.
The IoT is a tricky thing to discuss simply because it is so pervasive. Many of the initiatives and cost-cutting structures that exist today – such as smart building and cities – will gradually be supplemented (and eventually rebuilt upon) the IoT. In short, the IoT injects a responsive and controllable granular element far deeper within the structures that the energy industry seeks to control than was imaginable in the past. That’s huge – but difficult to discuss in anything but broad terms.
The energy future will be inexorably linked to the IoT. Wrote Wang: “[M]ore and more devices, factories, lighting systems, buildings, transportation systems and smart cities and communities will be connected and controlled through the Internet. Brains in the Cloud will optimize energy use to a larger and larger extent. More IoT sensors and devices will enable more control, and greater savings over time.”
Many ways Iot reduces energy use
Owen Poindexter, July 28, 2014, Future Structure, The Internet of Things will thrive on energy efficiency, http://www.govtech.com/fs/news/The-Internet-of-Things-Will-Thrive-On-Energy-Efficiency-.html DOA: 10-22-16
Energy efficiency presently tends to trail novelty in gauging the appeal of Internet of Things devices. Nest and other smart thermostat companies, such as the Germany-basedtado°, will certainly mention energy reductions, but the larger sell is around how they can make your life more comfortable without you having to do anything. But once consumers start witnessing significantly lower energy bills, novelty quickly morphs into practicality. The key to the efficiency-enhancing power of the Internet of Things lies in peak usage periods. Electricity is much more expensive in the hours that everyone is using a lot of it. “For a long time we’ve had these really dumb meters,” explained Lucas Davis, an associate professor at Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley, “so that customers got charged for total consumption during the month. That’s really crude, because the value of electricity varies massively. If it’s 3pm on a hot day, the cost of electricity can be four times what it is at 2am on a Tuesday.” Large energy consumers (stadiums, factories, etc.) are generally charged for their energy on a dynamic pricing model, which reflects the varying costs of power, but homes in the U.S. still mostly get charged solely on how much power they use. This baked-in inefficiency costs both the utilities and the average consumer, but there is little momentum to change. The consumer is shielded from the spikes of peak usage periods, and the utility companies generally don’t mind absorbing the extra costs (which they can factor back in to their prices), to avoid the inevitable protests when energy bills quadruple in the hottest part of the year. “If people would just use a little bit less, that would be great for society,” said Davis, “because it would mean we would have to build fewer power plants. We build a lot of power plants that basically only get used five hot summer afternoons a year. Let’s not build those. Let’s use prices, it would be much more efficient.” The standard American home offers a handful of obvious targets for smarter energy use. “I should have a thermostat that just knows about those critical peak days and knows to turn off my air conditioner at those hours,” said Davis. “I should have a clothes washer and a dryer that can time running for low price periods.” “There’s really five or so devices that control a majority of the energy consumption [in the home],” said Nate Williams ofGreenwave Systems, an Irvine, Calif.-based Internet of Things software and services provider. Heating and cooling systems, clothes washers and dryers, refrigerators, dishwashers and ovens (and pool pumps, for those fortunate enough to need one), make up the bulk of home energy use. There are tremendous potential savings in simply adding flexibility to when some of these devices are used. “Once you give [the devices] some direction, you can sort of set it and forget it,” Williams said. The idea of a smart washing machine that communicates with the city’s electrical grid may seem of dubious value but an avalanche of similarly connected products are on the horizon. Certain gradual advancements, namely ubiquitous Wi-Fi and the proliferation of smart phones, have created a fertile ecosystem for IoT devices, and with one major purchase, Google announced to the world that the Internet of Things was open for business. “One of the big and most iconic events was the Google Nest acquisition,” said Michael Wolf, founder of Next Market Insights, a consumer technology research firm. “That raised a couple of eyebrows. I noticed a substantial increase in people…getting more active and trying to pitch their own product. I definitely think there’s a lot of investor interest and venture interest as well.” The news created the needed proof of concept for both investors and entrepreneurs to dive into the market. “It made hardware less scary to investors, which just brings more capital into the area,” explained Zach Supalla ofSpark, a company that creates hardware and software to support IoT products. “You combine Nest’s $3.2 billion withOculus Rift’s$2 billion—it’s becoming a lot easier now for a VC to throw down a couple million on a hardware product, whereas two or three years ago, that was completely unheard of.” With cash flowing in to the Internet of Things space, more and more startups are jumping in. Responsive lights and sprinkler systems are on the leading edge while other companies are based around entirely new products.Niwa, for instance, creates a self-contained, automated home gardening system. The possibility of the IoT democratizing food production shows the game-changing potential of smart, responsive tech across any number of sectors. While trimming home energy use can bring substantial energy reductions, the larger promise comes from an integrated system in which smart products are in regular conversation with dynamic utilities and a smart energy grid. For instance, a home system could inform a utility company that there has been no activity in the home for a while, and that the water heater can be turned off without the occupant knowing or caring. “It’s not about making sure your toaster is unplugged when you’re at work,” said Supalla. “There are a lot more systematic, infrastructure level opportunities that come from getting better data about how the system is working, and being able to use that to improve efficiency.” When given the choice between reducing energy use and a more comfortable, convenient lifestyle, consumers generally opt for comfort and convenience. But there are signs such behavior is changing. And the Internet of Things may help bridge the gap between convenience and responsibility.
Transportation
IOT will improve transportation efficiency
Government Technology, August 10, 2016, What is the Internet of Things? http://www.govtech.com/fs/What-is-the-Internet-of-Things.html
Then there’s the world of the connected vehicle. Through the Smart City Challenge, the U.S. Department of Transportation elicited myriad futuristic concepts from government leaders for how connected vehicles might help improve transportation. Transit vehicles could coordinate centrally so that an early train could wait for the passengers on a late bus. Traffic lights could become more efficient at letting traffic through. Programs could seek to shunt traffic from congested roads onto free-flowing side streets. Sensors in parking spots could help reduce the amount of time people spend circling the block in search of an open space.
IoT avoids massive gridlock in cities
The Globe and Mail, August 2013, 8 ways the Internet will change the way we live and work, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/the-future-is-smart/article24586994/, DOA: 9-25-16
More than half of the world’s people now live in urban centres, and almost two-thirds of us will do so by 2050—which means 2.5 billion more city-dwellers to house, employ and transport. That’s a nightmare scenario for today’s cities, plagued, as so many are, by traffic, smog, crime, overflowing trash bins and inefficient lighting that gobbles between one-quarter and half of municipal electricity budgets. But technologies being tested right now will help the cities of the future better cope with the looming migration.Stoplights with embedded video sensors can adjust their greens and reds according to where the cars are and the time of day. They’re a double-win, reducing both congestion and smog, since vehicles idling at red lights burn up to 17% of the fuel consumed in urban areas.In Barcelona's Born Market, sensors embedded into parking spaces relay real-time information on empty spots to an app for would-be parkers. Siemens recently gave a grant to a start-up devoted to building parking drones that could guide cars to available spots. Sound trifling? It’s not: Up to 30% of congestion is caused by drivers cruising the streets in search of a place to park.Tel Aviv is tackling traffic on busier roadways by reserving one lane for buses, shuttles, taxis and car poolers—and allowing impatient and deep-pocketed commuters to use the designated lane, as well. Sensors in the asphalt pick up the car’s licence plate number and automatically charge the owner’s credit card at a rate that varies depending on how busy the road is.Smart LED streetlights in San Diego turn on only when a pedestrian or vehicle approaches—the city recently replaced 3,000 old streetlamps with sensor-equipped ones to save an estimated $250,000 a year. The Brits, in an effort to deter hooliganism, are testing a lamp that comes on extra-bright when it detects banging and hollering, and is armed with cameras that transmit a live video feed to the cloud.
Smart cars reduce accidents and massively reduce CO2 emissions
The Globe and Mail, August 2013, 8 ways the Internet will change the way we live and work, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/the-future-is-smart/article24586994/, DOA: 9-25-16
he research firm Gartner has estimated that, by 2020, there will be 250 million connected cars on the world’s roads, with many of them capable of driving themselves. There are eight million traffic accidents each year and 1.3 million crash-related deaths; Cisco’s Smart, Connected Vehicles division has posited that autonomous cars could eliminate as many as 85% of head-on collisions. They could also help ease traffic, since they’ll be able to communicate their positions to each other and therefore drive much closer together than vehicles piloted by humans. Traffic experts call this “platooning”—packing more cars into the same road space—and it could help save drivers at least some of the 90 billion hours they currently spend stuck in jams each year, generating 220 million metric tonnes of carbon-equivalent and wasting at least $1 trillion in fuel costs and lost productivity.
Climate Change/Smart Grid
IoT promotes the development of the smart grid
Texas Instruments, A smarter grid with the Internet of Things, http://e2e.ti.com/blogs_/b/smartgrid/archive/2014/05/08/a-smarter-grid-with-the-internet-of-things
As we take a broad look at the Internet of Things (IoT) this week, I wanted to take a deeper look at how the IoT will deliver a smarter grid (and visa versa) to enable more information and connectivity throughout the infrastructure and to homes. Through the IoT, consumers, manufacturers and utility providers will uncover new ways to manage devices and ultimately conserve resources and save money. Let’s take a look at how smart meters are being implemented worldwide to connect the smart grid to your homes. With the global focus on energy management and conservation, the IoT will extend the connected benefits of the smart grid beyond the distribution, automation and monitoring being done by utility providers. Management systems for in-home and in-building use will help consumers monitor their own usage and adjust behaviors. These systems will eventually regulate automatically by operating during off-peak energy hours and connect to sensors to monitor occupancy, lighting conditions, and more. But it all starts with a smarter and more connected grid. The first key step towards a smart grid that makes the IoT real is the mass deployment of smart meters. Millions of meters are already connected today and the connected grid momentum is growing. However, to obtain its maximum potential, the first step for the smart grid is to transition from mechanical meters to smart electronic meters to establish two-way communication between the meter and utility providers. The adoption rate of smart electrical meters in the U.S. is close to 50 percent with millions of electrical meters deployed today in the field, connected to the grid and regularly communicating data. Essentially, electrical meters are extending their functions from an energy measuring device to a two-way communication system. Modern e-meters must meet certain criteria to play such a critical role in the smart grid and IoT. First, meters need to report energy consumption information from houses and buildings back to the utilities. In the U.S., the appropriate solution is low power RF (LPRF) communication using a Sub-1 GHz mesh network. However, depending of the country and the nature of the grid, a wireless solution might not be the best choice, for example in Spain or France where wired narrowband OFDM power line communication (PLC) technologies are used. There is no one connectivity solution that fits all deployments. Making the IoT real requires a larger portfolio that can go from wired to wireless and sometimes combined together. Second, the meter needs to deliver useful power consumption information into the home through an in-home display or a gateway. This information allows consumers to adapt energy behavior and lower utility bills. In the U.S. the ZigBee standard is being used in combination with Smart Energy application profile. Other countries such as the U.K. or Japan are evaluating Sub-1 GHz RF or PLC solutions for greater reach or a combination implementation with both hybrid RF and PLC. So in essence, electrical meters are becoming smart sensors for the IoT that communicate both ways, inside and outside homes and buildings, connected to each other in a mesh network while reporting essential energy data to utilities. Additionally, a smart meter needs to support advanced functions like dynamic pricing, demand response, remote connect and disconnect, network security, over-the-air downloads and post-installation upgrades so utility providers don’t have to send out technicians to each meter. As you can see, the smart grid plays a critical role in supporting the IoT – but it’s just the beginning. Connecting devices together in building and homes is one of the next steps to reach the full benefits of the smart grid and many innovative solutions and convenient applications are already offered to the consumers. The introduction of dedicated home energy gateways, smart-hub or energy management systems will greatly accelerate connected grid and IoT benefits for consumers. For more information, read this whitepaper to learn how TI is creatinga smarter grid with the Internet of Things.
Smart grid promotes energy efficiency and reduces CO2 emissions
The Globe and Mail, August 2013, 8 ways the Internet will change the way we live and work, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/the-future-is-smart/article24586994/, DOA: 9-25-16
The grid was designed to deliver power on an as-needed basis, to delicately balance supply and demand—a challenge, given that demand varies by time of day, by weather and by season. A heat wave, a blizzard—heck, even an Academy Awards broadcast—can all stress this aged infrastructure. To meet sudden spikes, backup power stations and diesel generators must stand at the ready, gobbling up scarce resources. It is far from efficient.The basic theory behind the so-called Smart Grid is simple: Power is priced on the basis of demand, and this information is transmitted immediately to smart meters, thermostats and appliances so that they can draw the power they need at off-peak times, when it’s cheapest. This system uses market forces to balance the system loads and should, in theory, make power networks less susceptible to black- and brownouts.Pilot programs, most notably in Italy and Texas, have demonstrated that the theory can work in the real world. The U.S. has set 2030 as an informal deadline to implement most of the components of the smart grid; Ontario’s Hydro One is one of many regional utilities worldwide currently working to smarten up its network. It’s shooting for 2025, though it has already re-placed many old meters with smart ones.For now, they’re simply transmitting time-of-day usage directly to the utility. But the meters could, in the future, receive information on pricing and the total demands placed on the system, and govern themselves accordingly.Power lines and pipelines are getting a high-tech upgrade, too. Data collected by sensors in the lines can be analyzed to detect and isolate maintenance problems. And predictive software already on the market can anticipate which trees are most likely to fall and take down lines. Cisco builds pipelines lined with sensitive fibres that can sense leaks and radio for help right away. For aging pipelines, GE has developed software that collates seismic data, topographical details, population density, and hospital and school locations to help make maintenance decisions on an ongoing basis or in emergencies.The growth of renewable energy sources also hinges in large part on the smart grid. By next year, according to the International Energy Association, renewables will replace natural gas as the world’s second-largest source of power (coal is still on top). Here in Canada, wind and solar are by far the fastest-growing power-generating sectors (though they still account for just a few per cent of the total). While they may be easier on the environment, they put major pressure on the grid, since the energy generated by solar and wind farms varies by time of year and day, throwing out of whack its delicate balancing act. Solar panels that can communicate the amount of power they’re generating already exist. It remains to knit fields full of these panels into the grid, and to find a scalable battery to store overflow when we don’t need it.Wind is suffering similar integration issues, though the latest generation of turbines themselves are already benefiting from Internet of Things technology. GE-built turbines on the leading edge of a wind farm can let those behind them know that a gust is coming, prompting them to immediately alter the angle of their blades to protect themselves from damage and lengthen their lives. A relatively new software program also processes the data collected by turbine sensors and proposes the optimal angles to generate more power, increasing wind-farm production by as much as 5%.
Smart meters boost energy efficiency and make it possible to integrate renewable energy into the grid
Ian Brown, University of Oxford, 2013, Britain’s Smart Meter Program: A Case Study in Privacy by Design, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2215646 DOA: 9-26-15
Smart meters are an important element in government and industry plans to improve the efficiency of energy grids, enable better use of highly variable renewable energy sources, and help consumers to reduce their energy consumption and find more competitive suppliers. They can also be used to investigate fraud and remotely disconnect delinquent customers. Compared to traditional meters that provide a relatively infrequent reading of total energy used, smart meters allow much more detailed data to be recorded about the energy consumption of individual homes, and shared automatically at varying intervals with energy suppliers, grid operators, and price comparison websites. The energy industry has suggested that this will allow suppliers to better forecast demand, and shape consumer behaviour through time-of-day tariffs and remote instructions to appliances to reduce consumption. Because of potential cost and energy savings, many governments have legislated to encourage or mandate the large-scale installation of smart meters. The European Union agreed the Energy Efficiency Directive1 in 2006. Article 13 contains specific requirements for member states to encourage the use of smart electricity, gas, heating, cooling and hot water meters:
1. Member States shall ensure that, in so far as it is technically possible, financially reasonable and proportionate in relation to the potential energy savings, final customers for electricity, natural gas, district heating and/or cooling and domestic hot water are provided with competitively priced individual meters that accurately reflect the final customer’s actual energy consumption and that provide information on actual time of use. When an existing meter is replaced, such competitively priced individual meters shall always be provided, unless this is technically impossible or not cost-effective in relation to the estimated potential savings in the long term. When a new connection is made in a new building or a building undergoes major renovations, as set out in Directive 2002/91/EC, such competitively priced individual meters shall always be provided.
Generally Saves Lives
IoT will improved devices to save firefighters’ lives
Lindsay O’Donnell, August 17, 2016, GE CEO: Partners Need to “Embrace the Future” for Internet of Things, http://www.crn.com/news/internet-of-things/video/300081763/ge-ceo-partners-need-to-embrace-the-future-for-internet-of-things.htm DOA: 9-25-16
General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt came on stage at Intel Developer Forum in San Francisco this week to talk about how GE and Intel are approaching the Internet of Things from the industrial vertical. Immelt said GE, which is big in the industrial space and other verticals, is seeing more digital transformation in businesses, particularly in operational technology, as they embrace the Internet of Things. "We believe this digital transformation is important … we're in a line of demarcation for industrial companies where you either embrace the future or you'll find yourself not able to satisfy your customers," he said. [Intel Developer Forum: 10 Internet of Things Applications Bringing In The Money] Immelt discussed how Intel processing power will be important for large-scale Internet of Things applications, such as smart cities. Intel on Wednesday also showed different use cases for the Internet of Things in real life – including connected solutions for firefighters. As part of this solution, Intel partnered with Honeywell to connect a Quark processor to the firefighters' self-contained breathing apparatus, so that while they are in dangerous areas others can track how much oxygen they have left in their tank – and ultimately make critical life decisions based on that information. Firefighters are also equipped with a pulse gesture device and activity detector, so that operators can receive that sensory information through Wind River Helix software and track whether they are signaling for help or are in a crawling position.
Climate Change O/W Privacy
Acting to stop climate change is critical to reduce racial and economic inequality and promote justice
Hoerner 8(J. Andrew, Former director of Research at the Center for a Sustainable Economy, Director of Tax Policy at the Center for Global Change at the University of Maryland College Park, and editor of Natural Resources Tax Review. He has done research on environmental economics and policy on behalf of the governments of Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United States. Andrew received his B.A. in Economics from Cornell University and a J.D. from Case Western Reserve School of Law—AND—Nia Robins—former inaugural Climate Justice Corps Fellow in 2003, director of Environmental Justice and Climate Change Initiative “A Climate of Change African Americans, Global Warming, and a Just Climate Policy for the U.S.” July 2008, http://www.ejcc.org/climateofchange.pdf)
Everywhere we turn, the issues and impacts of climate change confront us. One of the most serious environmental threats facing the world today, climate change has moved from the minds of scientists and offices of environmentalists to the mainstream. Though the media is dominated by images of polar bears, melting glaciers, flooded lands, and arid desserts, there is a human face to this story as well. Climate change is not only an issue of the environment; it is also an issue of justice and human rights, one that dangerously intersects race and class. All over the world people of color, Indigenous Peoples and low-income communities bear disproportionate burdensfrom climate change itself, from ill-designed policies to prevent it, and from side effects of the energy systems that cause it. A Climate of Change explores the impacts of climate change on African Americans, from health to economics to community, and considers what policies would most harm or benefit African Americans—and the nation as a whole. African Americans are thirteen percent of the U.S. population and on average emit nearly twenty percent less greenhouse gases than non-Hispanic whites per capita. Though far less responsible for climate change, African Americans are significantly more vulnerable to its effects than non- Hispanic whites. Health, housing, economic well-being, culture, and social stability are harmed from such manifestations of climate change as storms, floods, and climate variability. African Americans are also more vulnerable to higher energy bills, unemployment, recessions caused by global energy price shocks, and a greater economic burden from military operations designed to protect the flow of oil to the U.S. Climate Justice: The Time Is Now Ultimately, accomplishing climate justice will require that new alliances are forged and traditional movements are transformed. An effective policy to address the challenges of global warming cannot be crafted until race and equity are part of the discussion from the outset and an integral part of the solution. This report finds that: Global warming amplifies nearly all existing inequalities. Under global warming, injustices that are already unsustainable become catastrophic. Thus it is essential to recognize that all justice is climate justice and that the struggle for racial and economic justice is an unavoidable part of the fight to halt global warming. Sound global warming policy is also economic andracial justice policy.Successfully adopting a sound global warming policy will do as much to strengthen the economies of low-income communities and communities of color as any other currently plausible stride toward economic justice. Climate policies that best serve African Americans also best serve a just and strong United States. This paper shows that policies well-designed to benefit African Americans also provide the most benefit to all people in the U.S. Climate policies that best serve African Americans and other disproportionately affected communities also best serve global economic and environmental justice. Domestic reductions in global warming pollution and support for such reductions in developing nations financed by polluter-pays principles provide the greatest benefit to African Americans, the peoples of Africa, and people across the Global South. A distinctive African American voice is critical for climate justice. Currently, legislation is being drafted, proposed, and considered without any significant input from the communities most affected. Special interests are represented by powerful lobbies, while traditional environmentalists often fail to engage people of color, Indigenous Peoples, and low-income communities until after the political playing field has been defined and limited to conventional environmental goals. A strong focus on equity is essential to the success of the environmental cause, but equity issues cannot be adequately addressed by isolating the voices of communities that are disproportionately impacted. Engagement in climate change policy must be moved from the White House and the halls of Congress to social circles, classrooms, kitchens, and congregations. The time is now for those disproportionately affected to assume leadership in the climate change debate, to speak truth to power, and to assert rights to social, environmental and economic justice. Taken together, these actions affirm a vital truth that will bring communities together: Climate Justice is Common Justice. African Americans and Vulnerability In this report, it is shown that African Americans are disproportionately affected by climate change. African Americans Are at Greater Risk from Climate Change and Global Warming Co-Pollutants ¶• The six states with the highest African American population are all in the Atlantic hurricane zone, and are expected to experience more intense storms resembling Katrina and Rita in the future.
Technological advancement is the only way to solve these devastating impacts
David C. Mowerya et all, ‘10 (Richard R. Nelsonb, c, Ben R. Martind, a Haas School of Business, U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States b The Earth Institute of Columbia University, United States c University of Manchester, United Kingdom d SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, United Kingdom, “Technology policy and global warming: Why new policy models are needed (or why putting new wine in old bottles won’t work)”, Research Policy Volume 39, Issue 8, October 2010, Pages 1011–1023)
The growing urgency of the global climate challenge has triggered a lively debate in Washington DC, London, and other national capitals over the design of policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. While there is no consensus on this, most informed participants in the policy debate believe that success in this effort will require the development of new technologies, and that strong governmental technology policy is an essential component of any portfolio of policies aiming to stop and reverse global warming. Many supporters of government action argue that the problem is so great, the need for new environmentally friendly technologies so urgent, and the time remaining for implementation of solutions so limited, that a “Manhattan Project” or an “Apollo Program” is needed.
Advances in technology are needed to improve society
Williams & Srnicek 13(Alex, PhD student at the University of East London, presently at work on a thesis entitled 'Hegemony and Complexity', Nick, PhD candidate in International Relations at the London School of Economics, Interviewed by C Derick Varn & Dario Cankovich, at The North Star, “The Speed of Future Thought: C. Derick Varn and Dario Cankovich Interview Alex Williams and Nick Srnicek”, http://www.thenorthstar.info/?p=9240)
Our conclusion that post-capitalist planning is required stems from the theoretical failures of market socialism as well as from our own belief that a planned system can distribute goods and resources in a more rational way than the market system. This differs from previous experiments with such a system in rejecting both the techno-utopian impulse of much recent writing on post-capitalism, and the centralised nature of the Soviet system. With regards to the former – we valorise technology not simply as a means to solve problems,but also as a weapon to wield in social struggles. So we reject any Silicon Valley-ish faith in technology – a problem that the liberal left often falls into. On the other hand, we reject any discourse of authenticity which sees technology as an aberration or as the source of contemporary problems – a problem that the proper left often falls into. The question has to be ‘how can we develop, design and use technology in a way which furthers leftist goals?’ This means thinking how infrastructures, data analytics, logistics networks, and automation can all play a role in building the material platform for a post-capitalist system. The belief that our current technologies are intrinsically wedded to a neoliberal social system is not only theoretically obsolete, but also practically limiting. So without thinking technology is sufficient to save us, we nevertheless believe that technology is a primary area where tools and weapons for struggle can be developed. With regards to the centralised nature of planning, it should be clear to everyone that the Soviet system was a failure in many regards. The issue here is to learn from past experiments such as GOSPLAN, and from theoretical proposals such as Parecon and Devine’s democratic planning. Particularly inspiring here is the Chilean experiment, Cybersyn, which contrary to the stereotype of a planned economy, in fact attempted to build a system which incorporated worker’s self-autonomy and factory-level democracy into the planned economy. There remain issues here about the gender-bias of the system (the design of the central hub being built for men, for instance), yet this experiment is a rich resource for thinking through what it might mean to build a post-capitalist economy. And it should be remembered that Cybersyn was built with less than the computing power of a smartphone. It is today’s technology which offers real resources for organising an economy in a far more rational way than the market system does. It has to be recognised then that communism is an idea that was ahead of its time. It is a 21st century idea that was made popular in the 20th century and was enacted by a 19th century economy.
Driverless Cars
Accidents
Distracted drivers produce accidents
David West, is vice president and director of Governance Studies and founding director of the Center for Technology Innovation, March 25, 2016, Alternative Perspectives on the Internet of Things, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2016/03/25/alternative-perspectives-on-the-internet-of-things/ DOA: 10-21-16
Humans are lovable creatures, but prone to inefficiency, ineffectiveness, and distraction. They like to do other things when they are driving such as listening to music, talking on the phone, texting, or checking email. Judging from the frequency of accidents though, many individuals believe they are more effective at multi-tasking than is actually the case.
The reality of these all too human traits is encouraging a movement from communication between computers to communication between machines. Driverless cars soon will appear on the highways in large numbers, and not just as a demonstration project.
A
Driverless cars reduce deaths and boost the economy
Thierer & Castillo, June 15, 2015, Adam Thierer is a senior research fellow with the Technology Policy Program at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He specializes in technology, media, Internet, and free-speech policies, with a particular focus on online safety and digital privacy. His latest book is Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom. Thierer is a frequent guest lecturer, has testified numerous times on Capitol Hill, and has served on several distinguished online safety task forces, including Harvard University’s Internet Safety Technical Task Force and the federal government’s Online Safety Technology Working Group. He received his MA in international business management and trade theory at the University of Maryland. Andrea Castillo is the program manager of the Technology Policy Program for the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and is pursuing a PhD in economics at George Mason University. She is a coauthor of Liberalism and Cronyism: Two Rival Political and Economic Systems with Randall G. Holcombe and Bitcoin: A Primer for Policymakers with Jerry Brito. Castillo received her BS in economics and political science from Florida State University, PROJECTING THE GROWTH AND THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE INTERNET OF THINGS, https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/IoT-EP-v3.pdf
Adam Thierer and Ryan Hagemann of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University pre- dict that networked vehicles and aircraft equipped with sensors, wireless communication, and dynamic programming will make unmanned transportation widely available and generate considerable bene ts for consumers and manufacturing. “Autonomous vehicles” or “driverless cars” are automotive technologies that permit automobiles to operate without human assis- tance. Driverless cars are expected to dramatically reduce the number and costs of highway deaths and injuries while lowering the costs of shipping and transportation. Autonomous vehicles can also be used in manufacturing and warehouse capacities to improve speed and e ciency while lowering human injury and costs. Even short of fully autonomous systems, more “intelligent vehicle” technologies could produce signi cant social and economic ben- e ts. On-board vehicle technologies are already an integral part of the expanding IoT uni- verse. Experts at Ars Technica predict that “the automobile could be the rst great wearable computer” and “your car might be the second most–used computing device you own before too long.”
Many benefits to connected cars
Federal Trade Commission (FTC), January 2015, Internet of Things: Privacy & Security in A Connected World, https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/reports/federal-trade-commission-staff-report-november-2013-workshop-entitled-internet-things-privacy/150127iotrpt.pdf
On the road, connected cars will increasingly offer many safety and convenience benefits to consumers. For example, sensors on a car can notify drivers of dangerous road conditions, and software updates can occur wirelessly, obviating the need for consumers to visit the dealership.37 Connected cars also can “offer real-time vehicle diagnostics to drivers and service facilities; Internet radio; navigation, weather, and traffic information; automatic alerts to first responders when airbags are deployed; and smartphone control of the starter and other aspects of the car.”38 In the future, cars will even drive themselves. Participants discussed the ability of self-driving cars to create safety benefits. For example, rather than having error-prone humans decide which car should go first at a four-way stop sign, self-driving cars will be able to figure out who shouldgo first according to a standard protocol. 39 They would also allow people with visual impairments to use their own cars as a mode of transportation.40
A2: Driverless Cars Don’t Crash Less
Driverless cars crash less when data on the underreporting of crashes is factored in
Mike Laris, October 16, 2016, Washington Post, Will driverless cars really save millions of lives? It’s hard to know, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/will-driverless-cars-really-save-millions-of-lives-lack-of-data-makes-it-hard-to-know/2016/10/18/6a678520-8435-11e6-92c2-14b64f3d453f_story.html
A bigger shortfall was revealed by in-car cameras that captured thousands of motorists in the wild as part of a major federal safety study. Even though they had volunteered to cooperate — and be recorded — some of those drivers failed to notify researchers when they crashed as they were told to.“As human beings, we don’t want people to think poorly of us,” Blanco said.But the cameras didn’t lie: 84 percent of crashes weren’t reported to police.Based on general accident data, Google’s self-driving cars appeared to crash more often than cars operated by humans. But once the underreporting was factored in, they performed better than people. The researchers also noted that the self-driving cars were not at fault in any of 11 crashes studied. The small numbers made it statistically tough to identify “true differences,” the researchers said.“We understand this is just directional, and we understand it’s not definitive. But it’s exciting and interesting,” said Urmson, a longtime driverless-car leader who left Google this summer.Police-reported crashes reached 6.3 million last year, according to U.S. figures, about half the number reported to insurers. One federal study estimated 13.6 million total crashes in a year; Virginia Tech used an upper estimate of 29 million.
Road deaths increasing now
Mike Laris, October 16, 2016, Washington Post, Will driverless cars really save millions of lives? It’s hard to know, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/will-driverless-cars-really-save-millions-of-lives-lack-of-data-makes-it-hard-to-know/2016/10/18/6a678520-8435-11e6-92c2-14b64f3d453f_story.html
Road deaths, tracked in a detailed census, climbed 7 percent to 35,092 last year, and alarmed federal officials this month said they soared an additional 10 percent in the first half of 2016.
Autopilot cars will reduce the death rate
Mike Laris, October 16, 2016, Washington Post, Will driverless cars really save millions of lives? It’s hard to know, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/will-driverless-cars-really-save-millions-of-lives-lack-of-data-makes-it-hard-to-know/2016/10/18/6a678520-8435-11e6-92c2-14b64f3d453f_story.html
Pioneering electric carmaker Tesla has collected tens of millions of miles of driving data from customers’ cars to see how its semi-automated features stack up. Tesla says human drivers working with its “autopilot” technology are safer than humans driving alone, despite a crash death in May.The company noted that one person dies for every 89 million miles traveled on U.S. roads. “Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number, and the system gets better every day,” Tesla said. The company says “both the frequency and severity of collisions” should be part of any metrics evaluated by the government.
Pioneering electric carmaker Tesla has collected tens of millions of miles of driving data from customers’ cars to see how its semi-automated features stack up. Tesla says human drivers working with its “autopilot” technology are safer than humans driving alone, despite a crash death in May.
The company noted that one person dies for every 89 million miles traveled on U.S. roads. “Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number, and the system gets better every day,” Tesla said. The company says “both the frequency and severity of collisions” should be part of any metrics evaluated by the government.
Water Shortages
California Water Shortages
IoT can solve California water shortages
Fred Greguras, attorney, December 17, 2015, Water Online, Water and the Internet of Things, http://www.wateronline.com/doc/water-and-the-internet-of-things-0001
Forecasters predict that California could receive record amounts of rain during this winter because of El Nino. Smart water management is important in times of no rain or too much rain so our conservation efforts must continue. The Internet of Things (“IoT”) can help the water supply from the El Nino rains be used more efficiently and with less waste.
I became interested in water and the IoT over a year ago when I had a below surface water leak at home that resulted in a large water bill.[1] Since I live in the Silicon Valley, California, the high tech capital of the world, I thought there should be a better way to track water usage so problems can be identified and solved sooner. I needed a smart water meter, an IoT application, that I could read online, at least on a daily basis, to monitor usage and provide actionable information. Motivating water conservation is more effective when users have a clear and timely picture of how water is used.
What is the Internet of Things?
Smart water meters are a form of IoT, a network of technologies which can monitor the status of physical objects, capture meaningful data, and communicate that data over a wireless network to a software application for analysis on a computer in the cloud. Technologies are capable of monitoring objects such as smart water meters and other electronic devices, organisms or a natural part of the environment such as an area of ground to be measured for moisture or chemical content. A smart device is associated with each object which provides the connectivity and a unique digital identity for identifying, tracking and communicating with the object. A sensor within or attached to the device is connected to the Internet by a local area connection (such as RFID, NFC or BTLE) and can also have wide area connectivity. Typically, each data transmission from a device is small in size but the number of transmissions can be frequent.
Each sensor will monitor a specific condition or set of conditions such as vibration, motion, temperature, pressure or water quality. More applications have become feasible because the cost and size of such devices continues to decrease and their sophistication for measuring conditions keeps increasing. Cisco estimates that 50 billion devices will be connected to the Internet by 2020. [2]
For example, at home I would need a smart water meter (device) that collects usage data which is communicated wirelessly to the water utility company where software analyzes the data and reports the results on the web site for me to view. In the San Francisco pilot program described below, a customer can view the data as it comes in, as well as compare their numbers with past use and city averages. The usage data should eventually alert me to a leak or another device that measures water pressure could detect a leak faster. To find the location for repair, however, I would need to add sensors to measure pressure at various locations in my water system. The sensors would be connected to data analytics software in the cloud that would analyze the data transmitted to identify the location of the leak between two sensing points in my water system. This is a much more complex application than simply tracking water usage and illustrates the importance of the software data analysis applications needed in order to make sense of the transmitted data.
Many ways smart meters can save water
Fred Greguras, attorney, December 17, 2015, Water Online, Water and the Internet of Things, http://www.wateronline.com/doc/water-and-the-internet-of-things-0001
I believe that even the simplest form of smart water meter installed at homes and businesses on a wide spread basis can provide actionable information, which if applied with common sense, can help save millions of gallons of water. [4] If the water utilities can provide the smart meter and basic water management platform, private vendors can offer more sophisticated features that are accessible as an app on a mobile phone similar to how AT&T provides the Digital Life home security system. Private vendors are already offering advanced features such as water leak detection.
The universe of water IoT networks can be divided into infrastructure, governmental, business and consumer. The water infrastructure IoT will help improve a utility’s water quality, supply, treatment, transportation and storage facilities such as reservoirs. Water savings will be the greatest and action should be the fastest at the infrastructure level. A utility should be able to justify the expenditure on the water savings particularly on the basis of planning for scarcity. State and local governments can save money and also have a major impact on supply by implementing the IoT for buildings and other uses like landscape irrigation. An IoT water management network for a large building or office park can help water be used more efficiently. Water cost savings and forced conservation will help drive adoption by businesses (including California’s important agricultural industry) and consumers, but they will be looking for a clear return on investment.
A utility can use an IoT network to remotely determine the status and working condition of equipment (open or closed, on or off, full or empty, etc.). The information can be actionable. A gate can be opened or closed or a pump turned on or off remotely to adjust the flow of water through a water transportation system. Pumps, gates and other equipment with moving parts in the water infrastructure can be monitored for vibration and other indications of failure. If a water pump is about to fail, the utility can be prompted to repair or replace it. An IoT-enabled water treatment plant can report if its filters are clean and functioning properly. The IoT can measure water pressure in pipes to find leaks faster in the water transportation system or the presence of certain chemicals in the water supply.
Agriculture consumes about 40 percent of the freshwater available in California with a large amount being wasted by leaky irrigation systems, inefficient field application methods and the planting of water intensive crops in the wrong growing location. The IoT has great potential to make water use smarter for the agricultural industry, particularly in irrigation efficiency.
Another focus for water savings should be landscape irrigation in parks, medians and elsewhere. This is a major use of water in cities. Nationwide, it is estimated to be nearly one-third of all residential water use and as much as half of this water is wasted due to runoff, evaporation or wind. [5] Landscape irrigation systems, which apply sophisticated data analytics to a wide variety of objects, are available in the market.[6] Current weather data is combined with sensors for moisture, heat and other data such as the slope of the land, type of soil and the relative exposure to sunshine at a particular time.
IoT Generally Reduces Water Demand
IoT can work to reduce water demand
Business Insider, October 6, 2016, IoT for Utilities: Smart Water, Gas & Electric Utilities Coming soon, http://www.businessinsider.com/internet-of-things-utilities-water-electric-gas-2016-10
Humans are consuming more energy every year, and utility companies are scrambling to meet the demand.The International Energy Agency expects global energy demand to increase by 37% by 2040, which would likely put a strain on energy supplies.But utility companies are finding solutions thanks to the Internet of Things. The IoT is making energy use more efficient, which should help relieve some of the stress on energy demand.Smart meters have become the top IoT device among utility companies in the last several years. These devices attach to buildings and connect to a smart energy grid, which allows these companies to more effectively manage energy flow into buildings.But there are many more ways the IoT will help the energy industry, specificallywater, electric, oil, and gas utilities. Below, we've outlined the ways that IoT utility companies are makingenergy consumption more efficient.You've undoubtedly heard at some point how important it is to conserve water. Don't run the water while you're brushing your teeth, don't let the shower run when you're not in it, etc. This becomes even more important in states such as California, where droughts are seemingly perpetual.As a result, smart water management is growing in popularity, as it gives consumers the ability to easily monitor their water consumption and provides useful information to the public.These smart water sensors track water quality, temperature, pressure, consumption, and more. These devices typically communicate directly with a water utility company, which uses software to analyze the data and then returns it to the consumer in an easy-to-understand format. Users can then understand how their consumption compares to city averages, previous months, and more.Another option is water leak detectors, which are useful for anyone who has had a faulty pipe or leaking appliance in their home at some point.As these devices grow in popularity, several companies have begun bringing smart water sensors to market. Honeywell, Insteon, Sensaphone, Fibaro, Quirky, and Samsung all have smart water sensors or water leak detectors available for purchase.
Smart systems save water
Kelsey Finch, Westin Research Fellow, International Association of Privacy Professionals, 2015, Welcome to the Metropticon: Protecting Privacy in a Hyperconnected Town,” FORDHAM URBAN LAW JOURNAL v. 41, http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2549&context=ulj,
Whereas infrastructure management is one of the most complex tasks a city government faces, private sector smart city technologies can help. For example, smart water initiatives are the remit of enterprise platforms like IBM’s Intelligent Operations for Water, which provides efficiency analytics, sewer overflow mitigation schemes, conservation and smart metering services, irrigation plans for parks, wastewater situational awareness and quality management, pressure and leak management, urban flood management, and scheduling optimization.45 When even city-wide infrastructure fails, urban residents can step up and engage with city services themselves, for example by privately broadcasting malfunctions or unsafe conditions to other residents through apps.4
Global Water Shortage
Water crunch is coming – causes global insecurity if tech isn’t diffused fast enough
Laura Parker 16 – National Geographic, contributing writer at NYT and the Guardian, associate editor at CBS (Laura Parker, 7-14-2016, "What You Need to Know About the World's Water Wars," National Geographic News, accessed 8-28-2016, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/07/world-aquifers-water-wars/)
Beijing is sinking. In some neighborhoods, the ground is giving way at a rate of four inches a yearas water in the giant aquifer below it is pumped. The groundwater has been so depleted that China’s capital city, home to more than 20 million people, could face serious disruptions in its rail system, roadways, and building foundations, an international team of scientists concluded earlier this year. Beijing, despite tapping into the gigantic North China Plain aquifer, is the world’s fifth most water-stressed city and its water problems are likely to get even worse. Beijing isn’t the only place experiencing subsidence, or sinking, as soil collapses into space created as groundwater is depleted. Parts of Shanghai, Mexico City, and other cities are sinking, too. Sections of California’s Central Valley have dropped by a foot, and in some localized areas, by as much as 28 feet. Around the world, alarms are being sounded about the depletion of underground water supplies. TheUnited Nations predicts a global shortfall in water by 2030. About 30 percent of the planet’s available freshwater is in the aquifers that underlie every continent. More than two-thirds of the groundwater consumed around the world irrigates agriculture, while the rest supplies drinking water to cities. These aquifers long have served as a backup to carry regions and countries through droughts and warm winters lacking enough snowmelt to replenish rivers and streams. Now, the world’s largest underground water reserves in Africa, Eurasia, and theAmericas are under stress. Many of them are being drawn down at unsustainable rates.Nearly two billion people rely on groundwater that is considered underthreat. Richard Damania, a lead economist at the World Bank, predicts that without adequate water supplies, economic growth in the most stressed parts of the world could decline by six percent of GDP. His findings conclude that the most severe impacts of climate change will deplete water supplies. “If you are in a dry area, you are going to get a lot less rainfall. Run-off is declining,” he says. “People are turning to groundwater in a very, very big way.” But few things are more difficult to control than groundwater pumping, Damania says. In the United States, farmers are withdrawing water at unsustainable rates from the High Plains, or Ogallala Aquifer, even though they have been aware of the threat for six decades. “What you have in developing countries is a large number of small farmers pumping. Given that these guys are earning so little, there is very little you can do to control it,” Damania says. “And you are, literally, in a race to the bottom.” Over the past three decades, Saudi Arabia has been drilling for a resource more precious than oil. Engineers and farmers have tapped hidden reserves of water to grow grains, fruits, and vegetables in the one of the driest places in the world. They are tapping into the aquifer at unsustainable rates. On these NASA satellite images of the Wadi As-Sirhan Basin, green indicates crops, contrasting with the pink and yellow of dry, barren land. As regions and nations run short of water, Damania says, economic growth will decline and food prices will spike, raising the risk of violent conflict and waves of large migrations. Unrest in Yemen, which heavily taps into groundwater and which experienced water riots in 2009, is rooted in a water crisis. Experts say water scarcity also helped destabilize Syria and launch its civil war. Jordan, which relies on aquifers as its only source of water, is even more water-stressed now that more than a half-million Syrian refugees arrived. Jay Famiglietti, lead scientist on a 2015 study using NASA satellites to record changes in the world’s 37 largest aquifers, says that the ones under the greatest threat are in the most heavily populated areas. "Without sustainable groundwater reserves, global security is at far greater risk,” he says. “As the dry parts are getting drier, we will rely on groundwater even more heavily. The implications are just staggering and really need to be discussed at the international level.” Below are answers to your key questions. Where is groundwater the most threatened? The most over-stressed is theArabian Aquifer System, which supplies water to 60 million people in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. TheIndus Basin aquifer in northwest India and Pakistan is the second-most threatened, and the Murzuk-Djado Basin in northern Africa the third. How did these giant basins become so depleted? Drought, bad management of pumping, leaky pipes in big-city municipal water systems, aging infrastructure, inadequate technology, population growth, and the demand for more food production all put increasing demand on pumping more groundwater. Flood irrigation, which is inefficient, remains the dominant irrigation method worldwide. In India, the world’s largest consumer of groundwater, the government subsidizes electricity – an incentive to farmers to keep pumping. The 20 million people of Beijing get about two-thirds of their water from the North China Plain aquifer, which is one of the world's largest groundwater basins. How has irrigation changed farming? Irrigation has enabled water-intensive crops to be grown in dry places, which in turn created local economies that are now difficult to undo. These include sugar cane and rice in India, winter wheat in China, and corn in the southern High Plains of North America. Aquaculture has boomed in the land-locked Ararat Basin, which lies along the border between Armenia and Turkey. Groundwater is cold enough to raise cold-water fish, such as trout and sturgeon. In less than two decades, the aquifer there has been drawn down so severely for fish ponds that municipal water supplies in more than two dozen communities are now threatened. How much water remains? More is known about oil reserves than water. Calculating what remains in aquifers is extraordinarily difficult. In 2015, scientists at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, Canada concluded that less than six percent of groundwater above one-and-a-half miles (two kilometers) in the Earth’s landmass is renewable within a human lifetime. But other hydrologists caution that measurements of stores can mislead. More important is how the water is distributed throughout the aquifer. When water levels drop below to 50 feet or less, it is often not economically practical to pump water to the surface, and much of that water is brackish or contains so many minerals that it is unusable. Is there any good news? Depleted groundwater is a slow-speed crisis, scientists say, so there's time to develop newtechnologies and water efficiencies. In Western Australia, desalinated water has been injected to recharge the large aquifer that Perth, Australia's driest city, taps for drinking water. China is working to regulate pumping. In west Texas, the city of Abernathy is drilling into a deeper aquifer that lies beneath the High Plains aquifer and mixing the two to supplement the municipal water supply.
Middle East War Impacts
Water scarcity leads to Middle East water wars that escalate – threat growing now
Rousseau, 4/12/2015, Associate Professor at the American University of Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates (Richard, “The Growing Potential for Water Wars”, http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2015/04/12/the-growing-potential-for-water-wars/)
Tensions over water are nothing new and will increase as shortages mount. However, it is possible to avoidviolent conflicts over this fundamental resource for human survivalprovided certain efforts are made to address this pressing challenge. According to its Charter, the United Nations’ purposes are to maintain international peace and security; to develop friendly relations among nations; and to cooperate in solving international economic, social, cultural and humanitarian problems. It also seeks to promote respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms and to be a centre for harmonizing the actions of nations in attaining these ends. These worthy aims were reaffirmed and clarified in the 2000 United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which are expected to be achieved by the year 2015. However, the international community has been faced with old threats and new challenges since the onset of the 21st century. It is understandable that world leaders have recognized poverty as the greatest problem facing the world in the new century, as its prevalence threatens the fundamental values of freedom, equality, solidarity, tolerance, respect for nature and shared responsibilities. However, each of these fundamental values is also interlinked with the environment and the presence, or absence, of natural resources. As a consequence, so-called ‘soft threats’ have been added to the list of threats to international security: environmental degradation, resource depletion, contagious diseases and corruption, to name a few.There is now a consensus that the degradation of environmental conditions and both a scarcity and abundance of natural resources could become causes of conflict, and that these issues must be addressed in a more systematic fashion. But most importantly, ensuring access to sufficient quantities of drinkablewaterand sanitation services is a prerequisite to achieving the other shared goals outlined in the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. Nowhere is this more of a prerequisite than in the Middle East. Considered a “strategic” resource, water resources are now a source of tensionsbetween regional states and could be the cause of armed conflicts in the not so distant future.Water has become a heated political issue in that region and there have been a collection of peace or cooperation agreements proposed or ratified in recent years which are directly or indirectly related to water sharing. All this led former Secretary-General of the United Nations Boutros Boutros Ghali (1990s) and the late King Hussein of Jordan to foresee that the next interstate war in the Middle East could be sparked by water issues. This idea has also gripped the public imagination and caused great consternation in the intelligence communities of various countries, which fear that water and other scarce resources will ignite wars of global proportions in the future.
Water scarcity causes Middle East war
Nitish Priyadarshi 12, lecturer in the department of environment and water management at Ranchi University in India, “War for water is not a far cry”, June 16, http://www.cleangangaportal.org/node/44
The crisis over water in the Middle East is escalating. Despite existing agreements, dwindling resources – increasingly affected by pollution, agricultural/industrial initiatives and population growth – have elevated the strategic importance of water in the region. For Middle Eastern nations, manyalready treading the razor’s edge of conflict, wateris becoming a catalyst for confrontation – an issue of national security and foreign policy as well as domestic stability. Given water’s growing ability to redefine interstate relations, the success of future efforts to address water sharing and distribution will hinge upon political and strategic approaches to this diminishing natural resource.In the Middle East, water resources are plummeting. While representing 5% of the total world population, the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region contains only 0.9% of global water resources.1 The number of water-scarce countries in the Middle East and North Africa has risen from 3 in 1955 (Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait) to 11 by 1990 (with the inclusion of Algeria, Israel and the Occupied Territories, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen). Another 7 are anticipated to join the list by 2025 (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Oman and Syria).In addition to its scarcity, much of Middle Eastern water stems from three major waterways: the Tigris-Euphrates, Nile and Jordan River systems. Mutual reliance on these resources has made water a catalyst for conflict, spurring confrontations such as the 1967 War (fomented by Syria’s attempts to divert water from Israel) and the Iran-Iraq War (which erupted from disputes over water claims and availability). Recognition of water’s role as an obstacle in interstate relations has spurred numerous attempts at resolution, including diplomatic efforts (most notably the 1953-1955 U.S.-brokered Johnston negotiations) and bilateral and multilateral treaty efforts, ranging from the 1959 Agreement for the Full Utilization of Nile Waters to the 1994 Israeli-Jordanian Treaty.Along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, Turkey and Syria are currently approaching a massive confrontation over water resources. Relations between the two countries, strained at best, have been exacerbated since the 1980s by growing tensions over water, which have brought them to the brink of war several times.The Jordan River Basin has also emerged as a flashpoint for conflict over water. Resources in the area, suffering serious overuse as a result of pollution and population growth, have increasingly impacted interstate relations.Between Jordan and Israel, water resource issues are reaching a fever pitch. Despite the 1994 Israeli-Jordanian Treaty – which established comprehensive guidelines regulating the distribution, preservation and availability of water from the Jordan and Yarmouk Rivers – conflicts over water have risen to the forefront of relations between the two countries. Jordan, fed only by underground sources and the Jordan River, has experienced an escalating water deficit – one that is expected to reach 250 million cubic meters (nearly 1/3rd of current annual consumption) by 2010. At the same time, Israel – currently utilizing almost all available water from its National Water System (consisting of the West Bank Mountain Aquifer, the Coastal Aquifer and the Lake Kinneret Basin) – has been forced to resort to overexploitation of available resources for expanding agricultural and industrial ventures. As a result, water has become a critical bone of contention between the two countries.The historically troubled relations between Israel and the Palestinians have also been magnified by water. Mutual reliance on the West Bank Mountain Aquifer, which rests atop the demarcating border of the disputed West Bank territory (and currently provides 1/3rd of Israel’s water supply and 80% of Palestinian consumption), has created friction between the State of Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Recent studies show – it’s getting worse and more violent
Yoon, 8/27/2015, reporter at Bloomberg Business (Sangwon, “Water scarcity drives conflict in Middle East, and it’s worsening: study”, http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/08/27/water-scarcity-drives-conflict-in-middle-east-and-its-worsening-study.html)
Thirst. It’s not talked about nearly as much as oil or Islamic State, yet the lack of water is driving conflict and strife in the Middle East and North Africa. The World Resources Institute released this week a water-stress index measuring competition and depletion of surface water. The index shows which countries are most vulnerable to scarcity in 2040. Nearly half of the 33 countries that fall in the category of extremely high risk are in the Middle East.Leading the pack are heavily oil-producing Gulf countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.These nations face “exceptional water-related challenges”because they don’t have lakes or rivers and already rely heavily upon groundwater and desalinated seawater, the findings show. Lack of water means farmers can’t grow the crops needed to feed populations experiencing explosive growth. Governments may stockpile grains out of fear of depletion, sending shockwaves through global commodities markets.Failure to address water shortages creates socialunrest and escalates political risk. The phenomenon was one of the catalysts for the uprising in Syria, now a full-blown regional proxy war.
Environmental Collapse Impacts
Extinction external to geopolitics
Barlow 10 (National Chairperson of the Council of Canadians and founder of the Blue Planet Project. “Advice for Water Warriors,” Yes! Magazine, posted Nov 08, 2010, pg. http://www.yesmagazine.org/planet/advice-for-water-warriors)
Half the tropical forests in the world—the lungs of our ecosystems—are gone; by 2030, at the current rate of harvest, only 10 percent will be left standing. Ninety percent of the big fish in the sea are gone, victim to wanton predatory fishing practices. Says a prominent scientist studying their demise “there is no blue frontier left.” Half the world’s wetlands—the kidneys of our ecosystems—were destroyed in the 20th century. Species extinction is taking place at a rate one thousand times greater than before humans existed. According to a Smithsonian scientist, we are headed toward a “biodiversity deficit” in which species and ecosystems will be destroyed at a rate faster than nature can create new ones.We are polluting our lakes, rivers, and streams to death. Every day, 2 million tons of sewage and industrial and agriculturalwaste are discharged into the world’s water, the equivalent of the weight of the entire human population of 6.8 billion people. The amount of wastewater produced annually is about six times more water than exists in all the rivers of the world. A comprehensive new global study recently reported that 80 percent of the world’s rivers are now in peril, affecting 5 billion people on the planet. We are also mining our groundwater far faster than nature can replenish it, sucking it up to grow water-guzzling chemical-fed crops in deserts or to water thirsty cities that dump an astounding 200 trillion gallons of land-based water as waste in the oceans every year. The global mining industry sucks up another 200 trillion gallons, which it leaves behind as poison. Fully one third of global water withdrawals—enough water to feed the world—are now used to produce biofuels. A recent global survey of groundwater found that the rate of depletion more than doubled in the last half century. If water was drained as rapidly from the Great Lakes, they would be bone dry in 80 years. The global water crisis is the greatest ecological and human threat humanity has ever faced.Vast areas of the planetare becoming desert as we suck the remaining waters out of living ecosystems and drain remaining aquifers in India, China, Australia, most of Africa, all of the Middle East, Mexico, Southern Europe, U.S. Southwest, and other places. Dirty water is the biggest killer of children; every day more children die of water-borne disease than HIV/AIDS, malaria, and war together. In the global South, dirty water kills a child every 3.5 seconds. And it is getting worse, fast. By 2030, global demand for waterwill exceed supply by 40 percent—an astounding figure foretelling of terrible suffering. Knowing there will not be enough food and water for all in the near future, wealthy countries and global investment, pension and hedge funds are buying up land and water, fields and forests in the global South, creating a new wave of invasive colonialism that will have huge geo-political ramifications. In Africa alone, rich investors have already bought up an amount of land double the size of the United Kingdom. We Simply Cannot Continue on the Present Path I do not think it possible to exaggerate the threat to our Earth and every living thing upon it. Quite simply, we cannot continue on the path that brought us here. Einstein said that problems cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them. While mouthing platitudes about caring for the Earth, most of our governments are deepening the crisis with new plans for expanded resource exploitation, unregulated free trade deals, more invasive investment, the privatization of absolutely everything, and unlimited growth. This model of development is literally killing the planet.
General Water Wars Evidence
Scarcity causes conflict---their evidence doesn’t assume unpredictability and uses the wrong frame
Peter Engelke 3/22/16, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative in Washington, "Will the world's next wars be fought over water?", LA Times, www.latimes.com/world/global-development/la-fg-global-water-oped-story.html
California’s ongoing drought is one sign that we have entered some uncharted and uncomfortable territory. Of the fears that have risen alongside a warming planet, perhaps none have attracted more attention than the "water wars" hypothesis.This hypothesis says that increased water shortages around the world will lead to war between states. It goes something like this: as water is central to all human activities, including food production, no state can allow its water resources to be compromised. Therefore, in a world of squeezed water supply, states should be willing to go to war to protect their access to water. At its core, the "water wars" hypothesis expresses our deepest anxieties about a drought-laden future, wherein desperately thirsty societies take up arms against one another. As evocative as this hypothesis is, the track record also shows that water wars are overblown – thankfully. Exhaustive research by Aaron Wolf, a geographer at Oregon State University, has documented the surprising fact that there have been no interstate wars fought directly over water for thousands of years. In fact, his team’s research indicates that states have cooperated over shared water resources far more often than they have fought over them. But the absence of a historical record of interstate warfare over water does not mean that we have no reason for concern. On the contrary. There are two very good reasons why we should intensify our efforts to understand how water intersects with conflict and to build the structures necessary to ensure that water leads to peace and prosperity rather than war. One reason is that the future is not going to look exactly like the past. This is a truism: No future ever looks exactly like any past. But in terms of how the Earth’s various systems operate, we likely are looking at a future that is very different from the past.For years now, Earth scientists have been debating whether we should rename the geological epoch in which we live, whether we should drop the term Holocene (the period since the last ice age) and substitute for it the term Anthropocene. As the root of the word Anthropocene suggests, the scientists’ basic idea is that human interference in Earth systems has become so pervasive that we have, in effect, a new planet on our hands. Indicators such as climate change, ozone depletion, massive sedimentation, and ocean acidification are proof that human interference in Earth systems already has altered how the planet works.So too with fresh water:Water cycling will become less predictable in the future. For example, a changing climate will create more droughts and floods more frequently in more places. As water systems become less reliable – say, transboundary river flows no longer follow historic, seasonal patterns – states will come under greater pressure to deal with the consequences. States might begin to take matters into their own hands and lay claim to water resources that others believe belong to them. No one can say whether such a causal chain will result in future water wars. But the second reason we should remain concerned about the potential for water-based conflict is the overly narrow frame we use to understand the relationship in the first place. Interstate warfare represents only a small part, indeed the far less significant part, of a much larger equation involving conflict and water. We would be smart to focus on that larger equation rather than on the narrower if spectacular "water wars" hypothesis. The smart frame is to think about how water can either contribute to peace and stability or, conversely, help destabilize vulnerable countries and regions around the world. Water is essential for all human activities, indeed for all life. When present in sufficient quantity and quality, water is an enabler of other good things, whether we are talking about human health or food production or energy production or a thousand other things. However, when water is not present in sufficient quantity and quality, the reverse becomes true: human health suffers, food cannot be grown, electricity cannot be produced, and so on. Under extreme conditions, society can begin to break down, and conflict becomes inevitable.
Water shortages are reaching a flashpoint---escalates globally---desalination key
Laura Parker 16 – National Geographic, contributing writer at NYT and the Guardian, associate editor at CBS (Laura Parker, 7-14-2016, "What You Need to Know About the World's Water Wars," National Geographic News, accessed 8-28-2016, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/07/world-aquifers-water-wars/)
Beijing is sinking. In some neighborhoods, the ground is giving way at a rate of four inches a yearas water in the giant aquifer below it is pumped. The groundwater has been so depleted that China’s capital city, home to more than 20 million people, could face serious disruptions in its rail system, roadways, and building foundations, an international team of scientists concluded earlier this year. Beijing, despite tapping into the gigantic North China Plain aquifer, is the world’s fifth most water-stressed city and its water problems are likely to get even worse. Beijing isn’t the only place experiencing subsidence, or sinking, as soil collapses into space created as groundwater is depleted. Parts of Shanghai, Mexico City, and other cities are sinking, too. Sections of California’s Central Valley have dropped by a foot, and in some localized areas, by as much as 28 feet. Around the world, alarms are being sounded about the depletion of underground water supplies. The United Nations predicts a global shortfall in water by 2030. About 30 percent of the planet’s available freshwater is in the aquifers that underlie every continent. More than two-thirds of the groundwater consumed around the world irrigates agriculture, while the rest supplies drinking water to cities. These aquifers long have served as a backup to carry regions and countries through droughts and warm winters lacking enough snowmelt to replenish rivers and streams. Now, the world’s largest underground water reserves in Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas are under stress. Many of them are being drawn down at unsustainable rates.Nearly two billion people rely ongroundwater that is considered under threat. Richard Damania, a lead economist at the World Bank, predicts that without adequate water supplies, economic growth in the most stressed parts of the world could decline by six percent of GDP. His findings conclude that the most severe impacts of climate change will deplete water supplies. “If you are in a dry area, you are going to get a lot less rainfall. Run-off is declining,” he says. “People are turning to groundwater in a very, very big way.” But few things are more difficult to control than groundwater pumping, Damania says. In the United States, farmers are withdrawing water at unsustainable rates from the High Plains, or Ogallala Aquifer, even though they have been aware of the threat for six decades. “What you have in developing countries is a large number of small farmers pumping. Given that these guys are earning so little, there is very little you can do to control it,” Damania says. “And you are, literally, in a race to the bottom.” Over the past three decades, Saudi Arabia has been drilling for a resource more precious than oil. Engineers and farmers have tapped hidden reserves of water to grow grains, fruits, and vegetables in the one of the driest places in the world. They are tapping into the aquifer at unsustainable rates. On these NASA satellite images of the Wadi As-Sirhan Basin, green indicates crops, contrasting with the pink and yellow of dry, barren land. As regions and nations run short of water, Damania says, economic growth will decline and food priceswill spike, raisingthe risk of violent conflict and waves of large migrations. Unrest in Yemen, which heavily taps into groundwater and which experienced water riots in 2009, is rooted in a water crisis. Experts say water scarcity also helped destabilize Syria and launch its civil war. Jordan, which relies on aquifers as its only source of water, is even more water-stressed now that more than a half-million Syrian refugees arrived. Jay Famiglietti, lead scientist on a 2015 study using NASA satellites to record changes in the world’s 37 largest aquifers, says that the ones under the greatest threat are in the most heavily populated areas. "Without sustainable groundwater reserves, global security is at far greater risk,” he says. “As the dry parts are getting drier, we will rely on groundwater even more heavily. The implications are just staggering and really need to be discussed at the international level.” Below are answers to your key questions. Where is groundwater the most threatened? The most over-stressed is theArabian Aquifer System, which supplies water to 60 million people in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. TheIndus Basin aquifer in northwest India and Pakistan is the second-most threatened, and the Murzuk-Djado Basin in northern Africa the third. How did these giant basins become so depleted? Drought, bad management of pumping, leaky pipes in big-city municipal water systems, aging infrastructure, inadequate technology, population growth, and the demand for more food production all put increasing demand on pumping more groundwater. Flood irrigation, which is inefficient, remains the dominant irrigation method worldwide. In India, the world’s largest consumer of groundwater, the government subsidizes electricity – an incentive to farmers to keep pumping. The 20 million people of Beijing get about two-thirds of their water from the North China Plain aquifer, which is one of the world's largest groundwater basins. How has irrigation changed farming? Irrigation has enabled water-intensive crops to be grown in dry places, which in turn created local economies that are now difficult to undo. These include sugar cane and rice in India, winter wheat in China, and corn in the southern High Plains of North America. Aquaculture has boomed in the land-locked Ararat Basin, which lies along the border between Armenia and Turkey. Groundwater is cold enough to raise cold-water fish, such as trout and sturgeon. In less than two decades, the aquifer there has been drawn down so severely for fish ponds that municipal water supplies in more than two dozen communities are now threatened. How much water remains? More is known about oil reserves than water. Calculating what remains in aquifers is extraordinarily difficult. In 2015, scientists at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, Canada concluded that less than six percent of groundwater above one-and-a-half miles (two kilometers) in the Earth’s landmass is renewable within a human lifetime. But other hydrologists caution that measurements of stores can mislead. More important is how the water is distributed throughout the aquifer. When water levels drop below to 50 feet or less, it is often not economically practical to pump water to the surface, and much of that water is brackish or contains so many minerals that it is unusable. Is there any good news?Depleted groundwater is a slow-speed crisis, scientists say, so there's time to developnew technologies and water efficiencies. In Western Australia, desalinated waterhas been injected to recharge the large aquifer that Perth, Australia's driest city, taps for drinking water. China is working to regulate pumping. In west Texas, the city of Abernathy is drilling into a deeper aquifer that lies beneath the High Plains aquifer and mixing the two to supplement the municipal water supply.
Water shortages exacerbate existing political tensions – statistically makes armed conflict more likely
Kuross, 3/4/2015, Management Consultant based in Oslo focusing on public sector issues, holds double Master’s degrees, one each from University College London and the London School of Economics, in Security Studies and International Relations (Even, “Water Scarcity Risks Being a Source of Conflict”, http://www.fairobserver.com/region/middle_east_north_africa/water-scarcity-risks-being-a-source-of-conflict-28740/)
Yemen, an impoverished desert country racked by years of conflict, instability and misgovernance,may soon add another dubious distinction to its unfortunate track record: At current rates, it may become the first country in the world to run out of water. With apocalyptic gloom, experts have put 2025 as the date when the country’s capital, Sana’a, home to nearly 2 million residents, runs dry. The majority of Yemen’s water resources are used for agricultural purposes – a staggering 40% being used to grow khat, a mild stimulant chewed by many Yemenis. Yemen is not alone. Many other countries through geographic ill-fate, climate change or water mismanagement are facing looming water shortages. It is estimated that 1.2 billion people, mostly in arid and semi-arid regions of the Middle East and Africa, live in regions where water is a physical scarcity. The acute lack of water will exacerbate existing problems (poverty, food security, environmental sustainability, socioeconomic and ethnic tensions), sow instability, provide the impetus for mass migration and may eventually lead to armed conflict. A 2012 report on Global Water Security from the United Sates Director of National Intelligence stated that the demand for water would lead to an increased risk of conflict in the future. The Pacific Institute, which tracks water-related conflicts, reiterated this pessimistic diagnosis when it reported an increase in the number of violent confrontations that have recently occurred over water. Adapting to water scarcity can be a difficult task that places immense pressure on struggling governments in the developing world. This is why many analysts predict that if conflict does erupt over water, it is much more likely to be localized intrastate armed conflict rather than traditional interstate one. This is all too true in Yemen, where researchers have found that between 70-80% of rural conflicts are the result of water-related disputes. The future shortage of water has led to Malthusian predictions about the ability of states to combat water shortages. However, without coordinated efforts to tackle the necessary problems, the lack of water can and will lead to destabilization and violent conflict.
Water scarcity causes war
Reilly ‘2
(Kristie, Editor for In These Times, a nonprofit, independent, national magazine published in Chicago. We’ve been around since 1976, fighting for corporate accountability and progressive government. In other words, a better world, “NOT A DROP TO DRINK,” http://www.inthesetimes.com/issue/26/25/culture1.shtml)
*Cites environmental thinker and activist Vandana Shiva Maude Barlow and Tony Clarke—probably North America’s foremost water experts
The two books provide a chilling, in-depth examination of a rapidly emerging global crisis. “Quite simply,” Barlow and Clarke write, “unless we dramatically change our ways, between one-half and two-thirds of humanity will be living with severe fresh water shortages within the next quarter-century. … The hard news is this: Humanity is depleting, diverting and polluting the planet’s fresh water resources so quickly and relentlessly that every species on earth—including our own—is in mortal danger.” The crisis is so great, the three authors agree, that the world’s next great wars will be over water. The Middle East, parts of Africa, China, Russia, parts of the United States and several other areas are already struggling to equitably share water resources. Many conflicts over water are not even recognized as such: Shiva blames the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in part on the severe scarcity of water in settlement areas. As available fresh water on the planet decreases, today’s low-level conflicts can only increase in intensity.
Weiner ‘90
(Jonathan, Visiting Professor of Molecular Biology at Princeton University. The Next One Hundred Years: Shaping the Fate of Our Living Earth, p. 214)
If we do not destroy ourselves with the A-bomb and the H-bomb, then we may destroy ourselves with the C-bomb, the Change Bomb. And in a world as interlinked as ours, one explosion may lead to the other. Already in the Middle East, from North Africa to the Persian Gulf and from the Nile to the Euphrates, tensions over dwindling water suppliesand rising populationsare reaching what many experts describe as a flashpoint. A climate shift in the single battle-scarred nexus might trigger international tensions thatwill unleash some of the 60,000 nuclear warheads the world has stockpiled since Trinity.
Smart Cities
Smart Cities Good
Smart cities easy to navigate and make people feel at home
Kelsey Finch, Westin Research Fellow, International Association of Privacy Professionals, 2015, Welcome to the Metropticon: Protecting Privacy in a Hyperconnected Town,” FORDHAM URBAN LAW JOURNAL v. 41, http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2549&context=ulj,
In today’s sprawling metropolises, no matter how carefully planned (or how organically chaotic) the streets are arrayed, it is easy to get lost. While being stuck on the wrong side of a subway platform or struggling to navigate confusing, unmarked side-streets is perhaps the most common form of losing yourself in a city, the urban “culture of inattention” creates social and cultural divides that can leave citydwellers equally lost, living in a city “full of strangers.”12 Smart city technologies, however, have begun to provide both physical and cultural maps to help direct the lost, as well as the merely curious, towards a greater understanding of where things (and people, and events, and resources) are in the city.13 For example, those simply trying to figure out how to get from point A to Z can now use comprehensive transit apps like Citymapper, which won the New York MTA’s 2013 App Quest Competition for integrating location services with “real-time data and [for] its ability to track multiple forms of New York’s transit. This includes subways, busses, and even the newly-introduced Citibikes.”14 Other contestants sought to use location services to highlight and increase the accessibility of city life’s more sociable aspects, such as an app that “matched people with their favorite subway musicians.”
Smart cities increase transportation efficiency and save time
Kelsey Finch, Westin Research Fellow, International Association of Privacy Professionals, 2015, Welcome to the Metropticon: Protecting Privacy in a Hyperconnected Town,” FORDHAM URBAN LAW JOURNAL v. 41, http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2549&context=ulj,
The success and promise of smart technology and infrastructure in cities is evident in the ever-expanding range of new urban transportation services, which not only use ubiquitous technology and sensors to streamline public transit but have also sparked responsive, data-driven private alternatives.20 Through the efforts of both diligent city planners and “DIY urbanism,” subways, buses, cars, taxis, bicycles, sidewalks, parking spaces, tolls, traffic, and road construction, conditions and improvements can all be monitored and optimized in real time, saving businesses, residents, and governments significant time and money while better ensuring millions of people can get to where they need to go
While many city-dwellers scoff at even a data-driven public transit commute, data-driven private transit opportunities are also beginning to sprout. In addition to app-based taxi-substitute services like Lyft or Uber, urbanites are now offered premium-priced “pop-up” bus services. One such bus service, Bridj, “collects millions of bits of data about people’s commutes from Google Earth, Facebook, Foursquare, Twitter, LinkedIn, the census, municipal records and other sources” in order to design dynamic bus routes, using technology to make transit even more efficient.22 Other data-driven bus services can target specific demographics and tailor routes to their needs, such as BreakShuttle, “which takes college students back home during school breaks.”23
Smart cities better organized, reduce waste, and are more livable
Kelsey Finch, Westin Research Fellow, International Association of Privacy Professionals, 2015, Welcome to the Metropticon: Protecting Privacy in a Hyperconnected Town,” FORDHAM URBAN LAW JOURNAL v. 41, http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2549&context=ulj,
Although innovative technologies and new service models springing up in connected cities draw the most media attention, the success of smart cities is more significantly defined by dynamic, datadriven infrastructure systems, such as smart grids. Infrastructure systems keep a city’s lights on and its water flowing, and provide the other basic services necessary to make a city livable and sustainable.32 The density of urban populations puts significant strain on these systems, especially ‘dumb’ static systems that may be pushed to their limits by unexpected changes in load or demand.33 Accessible digital sensors, advanced communications networks, and sophisticated analytics allow local governments—as well as businesses, researchers, and residents—to better allocate resources, respond to emergencies, and proactively address many challenges of industrial urbanization, such as traffic, energy, water, education, unemployment, health, and crime management.34
Smart Grid Good
Smart grid saves energy
Kelsey Finch, Westin Research Fellow, International Association of Privacy Professionals, 2015, Welcome to the Metropticon: Protecting Privacy in a Hyperconnected Town,” FORDHAM URBAN LAW JOURNAL v. 41, http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2549&context=ulj,
One of the most visible “smart” infrastructure systems today is the smart grid, which allows utilities, users, and other third parties to monitor and control electricity use.35 Consumers report seeing immediate benefits from smart meters in their homes or businesses, instantly gaining more control and choice over the means, timing, and quantity of electricity they use.36 Access to real-time, localized energy consumption data through smart meters enhances the efficiency of urban electric grids, allowing utilities to more accurately predict demand, locate power outages or other problems, resolve issues, and ensure the stability and safety of the grid.37 In addition to the shortterm cost and efficiency benefits, pro-environment policymakers view the smart grid as key to providing better power quality and more efficient delivery of electricity to facilitate the move towards renewable energy.38 Other benefits, such as accurately predicting energy demands to optimize renewable sources, may also accrue to society at large.
Smart grid reduces pollution
Justin Adder Office of Strategic Energy Analysis and Planning, Department of Energy, Environmental Impacts of Smart Grid, http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analyses/pubs/EnvImpact_SmartGrid.pdf
The production of electricity and the use of internal combustion vehicles in the United States generate a substantial number of pollutants. This paper focuses on the particulate and gaseous emission pollutants that are byproducts of electricity generation, and on how the Smart Grid infrastructure will affect this environmental impact. The major sources of pollution originate from coal-fired plants and include carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) sulfur oxides (SOx), and mercury (Hg). Coal plants also produce solid waste in the form of fly ash and bottom ash. Executive Summary The Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecasts (US EIA, 2010) that with nominal growth in electricity demand and the expected retirement of 45 Gigawatts of existing capacity, 250 Gigawatts of new generating capacity (including end-use Combined heat and power (CHP)) will be needed between 2009 and 2035. Natural-gas-fired plants account for 46 percent of capacity additions in the Reference case, as compared with 37 percent for renewables, 12 percent for coal-fired plants, and 3 percent for nuclear. One of the studies reviewed in this paper (EPRI, 2008) estimates a savings in power production of 12 percent, with a 100-percent implementation of the Smart Grid by 2030. It seems apparent that baseload power production will increase going forward, which implies that more coal and nuclear plants need to be built. While a very large uptake of renewable energy sources in the long-term might decrease the overall percentage of power production from traditional baseload generation, it is not clear that utilities would be in a position to effectively manage the required dispatch schedules of the myriad energy production resources without a Smart Grid infrastructure in place. Implementation of the Smart Grid will have a role in reducing the number of pollutants being produced by electricity generation activities. This paper evaluates the impact that the Smart Grid will have on reducing the production of these pollutants in the following major areas: • Demand response (DR) • Electric vehicles (EVs) • Demand side management (DSM) • Renewables and distributed energy resources • Transmission and distribution systems (T&D) The Smart Grid is an automated electric power system that monitors and controls grid activities, ensuring the two-way flow of electricity and information between power plants and consumers—and all points in between (Smart Grid Basics, 2010). It is different from today’s electric power grid in several important ways. First, it uses information technologies to improve how electricity travels from power plants to consumers. Second, it allows those consumers to interact with the grid. Third, it integrates new and improved technologies into the operation of the grid. A smarter grid will enable many benefits, including improved response to power demand, more intelligent management of outages, better integration of renewable forms of energy, and the storage of electricity.
In this report, the Energy Sector Planning and Analysis (ESPA) Team summarizes the current body of literature to ascertain its analytical coverage of Smart Grid’s impact on the environment. In doing this, the ESPA Team also seeks to identify additional research to unify the analysis and lend credibility to the expectations for this next-generation grid infrastructure. This paper also attempts to critically evaluate the technical quality and analytical rigor found in the literature to illustrate the level of advancement embodied in the Smart Grid discussion and to provide guidance on future analytical and research endeavors in this field. This report summarizes the key studies to date on the topic of Smart Grid and the environment, highlighting key findings and topic coverage. This report also provides a more general overview of the nature of the current literature and recommendations for additional research. The Smart Grid will enhance efficiency by reducing the information gap between utilities and consumers via advanced metering infrastructure and accompanying data management technologies. Consumers will be able to conserve energy via demand-response programs and DSM, particularly during peak demand periods. This will also allow utilities to smooth generation and use baseload generation sources more effectively. This includes facilitating a decreased dependence on fossil fuels for transportation by, for example, increased integration of EVs. A shift to such vehicles would cause a shift away from relatively emissions-intensive fossil fuel usage. With better control, utilities will also be able to more easily manage peak demand spikes and generation outages. This, in itself, would reduce the intensity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a way analogous to the past two decades of successful reductions in NOx
Predictive Policing
Predictive Policing Good
Predictive policing improves accuracy of policing and reduces racial bias
Mara Hvistendahl, September 28, 2016, Science Magazine, Can “predictive Policing Prevent Crimes before it happens, http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/can-predictive-policing-prevent-crime-it-happens
But starting next month, Pascucci and Kania may get a new type of guidance. Homewood is set to become the initial pilot zone for Pittsburgh's "predictive policing" program. Police car laptops will display maps showing locations where crime is likely to occur, based on data-crunching algorithms developed by scientists at Carnegie Mellon University here. In theory, the maps could help cops do a better job of preventing crime.
Many other cities have already adopted similar systems, which incorporate everything from minor crime reports to criminals' Facebook profiles. They're catching on outside the United States as well. Drawing on approaches from fields as diverse as seismology and epidemiology, the algorithms can help bring down crime rates while also reducing bias in policing, their creators say. They replace more basic trendspotting and gut feelings about where crimes will happen and who will commit them with ostensibly objective analysis.
That's a strategy worth trying at a time when relations between U.S. police and minorities are at an all-time low, says Pittsburgh Police Chief Cameron McLay, who acknowledges that policing has a long way to go to fix bias. (Last year, McLay showed up at a New Year's Eve celebration holding a sign that read, "I resolve to end racism @ work.") McLay sees the use of big data—combined with more community-focused strategies—as part of a palliative for policing's ills.
Predictive policing will reduce crime
Jennifer Bachner, Dr. Bachner is director of the master of science in government analytics program at Johns Hopkins University. April 24, 2016, Wall Street Journal, http://www.wsj.com/articles/is-predictive-policing-the-law-enforcement-tactic-of-the-future-1461550190
In an era of tight budgets, police departments across the country are being asked to do more with less. They must protect the public, but often have to do it with limited personnel, equipment and training resources.To address this problem, law-enforcement agencies increasingly are turning to data and analytics to improve their ability to fight crime without substantial increases in operating costs. Known as predictive policing, these technologies and techniques empower police officers to take a more proactive approach to both preventing crime and solving open cases.Predictive policing involves crunching data on past crimes, along with information such as the weather, the time of day and the presence of escape routes, to forecast where and when future crime is most likely to occur. In cities such as Santa Cruz, Calif., officers have access tomapsoutlining “hot spots,”or geographic areas most vulnerable to crime at a future point in time, and they are encouraged to use the information along with their knowledge of the community to decide where to allocate the most resources on a given shift.The theory isn’t complicated—being in the right place at the right time deters crime—and the approach hasproved effective, particularly in places such as Santa Cruz, where the population is dispersed over a large area.Some in law enforcement say predictive policing is particularly helpful when it comes to identifying and halting repeat criminals.TheBaltimore County Police Departmentsays it used predictive methods to halt a string of convenience-store robberies. Police had information about the locations of the robberies and a suspected model of car used by the elusive offender, but no obvious next target. By plotting the robbed locations on a map and employing an iterative algorithm, police identified a suspected point of origin. Police then analyzed the streets that would likely have been used to reach the crime locations and detected one specific street that the offender had likely used frequently (and would probably use again) to travel to crime scenes. Officers staked out that street, rather than patrolling numerous convenience stores, and were able to apprehend the suspect.Some critics say that because not all crime is reported, predictive models based on past crime data might miss future crimes that don’t fit historical patterns. But today’s predictive models aren’t based solely on past crime data—they also take into account some of the same things potential criminals do when planning crimes, such as geographic information.
Answers to: Predicting Policing Racist
Predictive policing predicts based on WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, not WHO
Mara Hvistendahl, September 28, 2016, Science Magazine, Can “predictive Policing Prevent Crimes before it happens, http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/can-predictive-policing-prevent-crime-it-happens
Brantingham and Mohler developed an algorithm—now a proprietary software package called PredPol—that predicts what will happen within a given police shift. The software, used by 60 police departments around the country, incorporates a narrow set of closely related crime events from both the immediate and longer-term past, with more recent crimes given heavier weight. The software strips personal details and looks at "only what, where, and when," Brantingham says. At the beginning of a shift, officers are shown maps with 150-by-150-meter boxes indicating where crime is likely to flare up. Fighting crime, the company says in promotional slides, is about "getting in the box."
Disabled
IoT Helps the Disabled
IoT makes appliances accessible to the disabled
Consumer Research for Older and Disabled People, May 2016, http://www.rica.org.uk/sites/default/files/documents/pdfs/home-tech/Smart%20Appliances%20and%20the%20Internet%20of%20Things%20-%20trends%20and%20%20impact%20for%20disabled%20and%20older%20consumers%20May%202016.pdf
The IoT was envisioned in Mark Weisner’s seminal paper on ubiquitous computing in 1991, “The computer of the 21st Century” [2]. However the term “The Internet of Things” wasn’t used until 1999 by Kevin Ashton [3] who was working on networked Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices. Since then developments in communications and networking technology have fuelled an exponential growth in this area with IoT forecasted to soon become the largest global market sector [4]. Whilst there is concern over data security and intrusion into people’s daily routines [5], these connected appliances offer many potentially helpful services, such as food management in the kitchen, remote heating control and health monitoring. Additionally there is an opportunity to improve the accessibility of household appliances by interacting with them through a connected smart phone, tablet or computer. These connections to computers allow the user to be informed of the status of the appliance whilst also providing a way to remotely control them. This networked interface with appliances that offers much potential to make inaccessible appliances accessible to disabled people, especially to blind or partially sighted people.
Many ways the IoT will help the disabled
Consumer Research for Older and Disabled People, May 2016, http://www.rica.org.uk/sites/default/files/documents/pdfs/home-tech/Smart%20Appliances%20and%20the%20Internet%20of%20Things%20-%20trends%20and%20%20impact%20for%20disabled%20and%20older%20consumers%20May%202016.pdf
There is opportunity for new and emerging IoT appliances and service solutions to be of real benefit to disabled people. A significant element of this opportunity comes from the control interface of many appliances being accessible through a smartphone. In order to exploit the potential of the IoT to mediate the control of appliances it is crucial for smartphones and their associated apps to be accessible. However, this is not the only place where opportunities for IoT to improve the quality of life for disabled people exist. Service designs which add context of use to clusters of appliances can also provide real benefits. A smartphone knowing the quantity and freshness of produce in the fridge or the larder is helpful to sighted people but is even more so for a partially sighted or blind person. Some examples of user scenarios of clusters of devices can be found in [Appendix B].
Answers to: Unemployment
Innovation means a net gain in employment and well-being
Adam Theirer, Mercatus Center, George Mason, 2016, Permissionless Innovation: The Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom, Kindle edition, page number at end of card
“There have been periodic warnings in the last two centuries that automation and new technology were going to wipe out large numbers of middle class jobs,” notes MIT economist David H. Autor. 113 Luckily, those dire predictions have not come to pass. This is because shortsighted skeptics failed to appreciate how as new technologies obliterated old businesses and jobs, they simultaneously opened up many more opportunities that were impossible to predict in advance. 114 For every factory worker who lost a job due to technological innovation, new jobs opened up in entirely new sectors that usually offered workers better wages, a safer work environment, and more leisure time. 115 In late 2014, economists at Deloitte LLP published a sweeping survey of the impact of technology and jobs over the past 200 years and found that “[ t] echnology has transformed productivity and living standards, and, in the process, created new employment in new sectors.” 116 This is because human needs and wants constantly change and, therefore, “[ t] he stock of work in the economy is not fixed; the last 200 years demonstrates that when a machine replaces a human, the result, paradoxically, is faster growth and, in time, rising employment.” 117 While it is easy for critics to highlight disruptions in some notable sectors where machines replaced human labor, fewer media reports or panicky books discuss the many new sectors where people have found new opportunities. 118 And despite “a resurgence of automation anxiety” 119 in recent years, that historic trend still generally holds true. 120 Critics will repeat the old argument that this time it’s different!, but the historical evidence suggests that there are good reasons to have faith that humans will once again muddle through and prevail in the face of turbulent, disruptive change. As venture capitalist Marc Andreessen has noted when addressing the fear that automation is running amok and that robots will eat all our jobs, We have no idea what the fields, industries, businesses, and jobs of the future will be. We just know we will create an enormous number of them. Because if robots and AI [artificial intelligence] replace people for many of the things we do today, the new fields we create will be built on the huge number of people those robots and AI systems made available. To argue that huge numbers of people will be available but we will find nothing for them (us) to do is to dramatically short human creativity. And I am way long [on] human creativity. 121 Some tech critics may reject Andreessen’s bullish optimism about human resiliency, but real-world evidence already supports his conclusion that we’ll learn to adapt to a world full of robots and robotic systems. A 2015 economic analysis from Colin Lewis, a behavioral economist who runs RobotEnomics, a blog about how robotics, behavior, and culture are shaping the future, showed that “despite the headlines, companies that have installed industrial robots are actually increasingly employing more people whilst at the same time adding more robots.” His research revealed that 1.25 million new jobs had been added by companies that make extensive use of industrial robots over the previous six years. 122 He also found that this trend held among more recently developed firms like Amazon and Tesla Motors, as well as older and more established companies like Chrysler, Daimler, Philips Electronics and others.
It’s also worth noting how difficult it is to predict future labor market trends. In early 2015, Glassdoor, an online jobs and recruiting site, published a report on the 25 highest paying jobs in demand today. Many of the job titles identified in the report probably weren’t considered a top priority 40 years ago, and some of these job descriptions wouldn’t even have made sense to an observer from the past. For example, some of those hotly demanded jobs on Glassdoor’s list include124 software architect (# 3), software development manager (# 4), solutions architect (# 6), analytics manager (# 8), IT manager (# 9), data scientist (# 15), security engineer (# 16), quality assurance manager (# 17), computer hardware engineer (# 18), database administrator (# 20), UX designer (# 21), and software engineer (# 23). Looking back at reports from the 1970s and ’80s published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the federal agency that monitors labor market trends, one finds no mention of these computing and information technology– related professions because they had not yet been created or even envisioned. 125 So, what will the most important and well-paying jobs be to 40 years from now? If history is any guide, we probably can’t even imagine many of them right now. Of course, as with previous periods of turbulent technological change, many of today’s jobs and business models will be rendered obsolete, and workers and businesses will need to adjust to new marketplace realities. That transition takes time, but as James Bessen points out in his book Learning by Doing, for technological revolutions to take hold and have a meaningful impact on economic growth and worker conditions, large numbers of ordinary workers must acquire new knowledge and skills. But “that is a slow and difficult process, and history suggests that it often requires social changes supported by accommodating institutions and culture.” 126 Luckily, however, history also suggests that, time and time again, society has adjusted to technological change and the standard of living for workers and average citizens alike improve at the same time. 127 Thierer, Adam. Permissionless Innovation: The Continuing Case for Comprehensive Technological Freedom (Kindle Locations 1875-1882). Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Kindle Edition.
Massive boost in employment for IT developers in manufacturing
In a June 30, 2015 article in the Wall Street Journal, Ernst and Young’s acquisition of “the systems consulting arm of manufacturing intelligence firm Entegreat Inc.” is just the latest in the mergers and acquisition free-for-all in the IOT (more accurately, the Industrial Internet of Things) space. The opportunities for eliminating waste in the industry are almost as plentiful as the thousands of connections that result when every node in a supply chain—from suppliers to customers and back—is integrated. The production floor in an IOT-enabled factory will look quite different—yes, and probably will have fewer humans involved. However, the opportunity for job creation is endless—think about developers working to integrate old-school systems of record like MRP and ERP into new, cloud-based, mobile solutions. What about app developers—shop floor personnel might one day work from home—how can you translate inventory data streams, customer orders and work-in-process data to a tablet or mobile phone? These are the questions that new and emerging IT talents can sink their teeth into.
Enormous employment growth with the IoT
Bill Mccabe, September 9, 2015, Internet of Things: Job Killer or Job Creator? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/iot-job-killer-creator-people-finder-internet-of-things-
If you want to unlock the job creation potential of the Internet of Things, look no further than the latest McKinsey report. They’ve identified nine areas of growth to reach the $4 trillion to $11 trillion of value inherent in the IOT’s potential. I’m taking liberties here in placing the remaining seven (we’ve already talked about what McKinsey characterizes as the “human” (healthcare) and “factories” (manufacturing) categories) together in an overarching category of “everything else” with a few characteristics in common: Business Model and Modality Disruptions.
McKinsey talks about Business Model opportunities where the Internet of Things will create brand new ways of doing business. Its focus on “everything as a service” disrupting the traditional back-and-forth of business transactions is spot-on. However, the most opportunities for job creation (aside from the fact that these new business models might very well need a brand new breed of MBA) are what I call “modality disruptions.” These are the “how I will live my life” changes that provide the most value. For developers and IT professionals, this means that their discipline’s value will experience a sea change in the eyes of their leaders. With all of the changes in Cities; Homes; Vehicles, and among all of the categories of emerging value in IOT, the modality disruption of how we do business will ensure IT is not only an enabler; never again a not-so-benign cost center; but a true game changer whose capabilities will guarantee a company’s future—or its demise.
Big Data Generally Good
Big Data Good
Big data improves society and saves lives
Klouse & Werilaard, 2016
Sander Klous1, 3 and Nart Wielaard2 (1) Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, North Holland, The Netherlands (2) Nart BV, Haarlem, North Holland, The Netherlands (3) Management Consulting, KPMG, Amstelveen, North Holland,, The Netherlands Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 396-401). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
Big Data is more than just a new technology or concept. It offers opportunities to all sectors and industries for us to organize ourselves differently, to make progress and to do things that were simply not possible until recently. Many people associate the term ‘Big Data’ with companies wanting to sell their customers even more stuff by learning everything there is to know about them. However, that’s only one side of the coin, a side that we will definitely address in this book. We also want to show that Big Data can solve societal problems and improve our lives. We can use it to save human lives. We can improve maintenance and plan more cost-effectively. We can improve traffic safety and reduce congestion. We can increase agricultural yields. We can provide a better quality of life for the elderly. We can make the world more sustainable. We can revolutionize medical diagnostics and treatments. We can increase the security of payments. We can even improve a team’s sporting performance. Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 132-135). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
Big data enables predictive policing that reduces crime
Klouse & Werilaard, 2016
Sander Klous1, 3 and Nart Wielaard2 (1) Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, North Holland, The Netherlands (2) Nart BV, Haarlem, North Holland, The Netherlands (3) Management Consulting, KPMG, Amstelveen, North Holland,, The Netherlands Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 396-401). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
Based on the analysis of large amounts of data from various sources, algorithms determine which streets require additional attention from police officers. According to Predpol, one of the key suppliers of predictive policing software, the effect will be more arrests, but also lower crime rates. An experiment conducted in a town in Kent, England showed that number crunching is significantly better at predicting where a crime will occur than the conventional approach. Data analysis made a correct prediction in 8.5 percent of cases, whereas predictions made by experienced professionals scored no better than 5 percent. In an earlier experiment in Los Angeles, California, these scores were 6 percent and 3 percent. The Economist, a British weekly magazine, had a pointed title for an article about this: “Don’t even think about it”. 1 However, some experts have expressed criticism regarding the expediency and possible side effects of such measures. Namely, an individual’s right to privacy could lose out to society’s need for safety. 2 In another example, again from the US: Baltimore’s Parole Board uses risk profiles that indicate the level of risk of a detainee becoming the perpetrator or victim of a murder after being released from custody. 3 This risk calculation forms the basis for deciding what level of monitoring is required for the detainee about to be released. These are all examples that show how we can increase societal safety by analyzing data in a smart manner. Restraint is sometimes required and policy transparency is a must. For example, in the case of releasing detainees based on data analyses, it is important that the authorities clearly show the public how decisions are made. Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 201-210). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
General Life Saving
Ecall saves lives in traffic accidents
Klouse & Werilaard, 2016
Sander Klous1, 3 and Nart Wielaard2 (1) Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, North Holland, The Netherlands (2) Nart BV, Haarlem, North Holland, The Netherlands (3) Management Consulting, KPMG, Amstelveen, North Holland,, The Netherlands Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 396-401). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
Saving human lives eCall is a system through which a car itself, without human intervention, alerts the emergency services when an accident occurs, communicates its location, and opens an audio connection between the car and the emergency services. For example, the car manufacturer BMW has already taken the decision to include this system in all new cars sold in the Netherlands. The EU has made this system mandatory for all new cars sold from 31 March 2018. It claims that the system will save 2500 human lives annually10 by making better use of the period known as the ‘golden hour’ after a traffic accident, in which rapid and appropriate action means the difference between life and death. Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 287-292). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
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Big data critical to environmental sustainability and avoiding ecological collapse
Klouse & Werilaard, 2016
Sander Klous1, 3 and Nart Wielaard2 (1) Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, North Holland, The Netherlands (2) Nart BV, Haarlem, North Holland, The Netherlands (3) Management Consulting, KPMG, Amstelveen, North Holland,, The Netherlands Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 396-401). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
It Is Time for Sustainability A sustainable world is a world that meets the current needs of humanity without endangering the needs of future generations. 2 It is clear that sustainability is under great pressure. The global population is growing rapidly and changes in consumption and lifestyle patterns result in an increased demand for raw materials instead of the required decrease. According to estimates by the World Wildlife Fund, we currently consume 50 % more natural resources than the Earth’s ecosystem can replenish. 3 These needs include, for example, our basic need for food, but also for energy. Fossil fuel supplies are slowly being depleted and the same applies to various essential raw materials. Climate change may already lead to problems in the coming decades. Finally, biodiversity is also seriously under pressure, with potentially disastrous consequences for our food supply. The sustainability issue is a many-headed monster, but in essence it is also very simple: it is a scarcity problem. We use too many raw materials and consumables, we pump too many hazardous emissions into the atmosphere, we cannot produce sufficient food to feed the entire global population, and we are facing a growing divide between the haves and the have-nots. We could try to fix the problem or at least reduce it to manageable proportions if global leaders were to make binding agreements. However, that does not seem certain in the short term. The United Nations Climate Change Conference saw more than 190 nations gather in Paris in December 2015 and reach agreement for the first time to keep global temperature rises to 2 ° C. However, this agreement is as yet tentative and only starts to address the challenges we are facing. In recent decades, the solution was sought in behavioral changes. The reasoning behind this was that if we were aware of the consequences of our behavior, we would change that behavior. This is the reason that people organize events like Earth Hour, to make us aware of the excessive consumption of energy by the lights we use every day. Advertising is motivating us to purchase organic produce, to opt for sustainable energy sources, to work out more often to prevent obesity and to only drive our cars outside of rush hour. The message that we should consume less, set the thermostat a degree lower, or get used to less luxury is not at all popular and therefore also not very effective. This does not mean that we should stop creating awareness of the problems and try to contribute to behavioral change, but the impact of this message is not enough to adequately battle the many-headed monster. We should, therefore, also look for other solutions. the short term. The United Nations Climate Change Conference saw more than 190 nations gather in Paris in December 2015 and reach agreement for the first time to keep global temperature rises to 2 ° C. However, this agreement is as yet tentative and only starts to address the challenges we are facing. In recent decades, the solution was sought in behavioral changes. The reasoning behind this was that if we were aware of the consequences of our behavior, we would change that behavior. This is the reason that people organize events like Earth Hour, to make us aware of the excessive consumption of energy by the lights we use every day. Advertising is motivating us to purchase organic produce, to opt for sustainable energy sources, to work out more often to prevent obesity and to only drive our cars outside of rush hour. The message that we should consume less, set the thermostat a degree lower, or get used to less luxury is not at all popular and therefore also not very effective. This does not mean that we should stop creating awareness of the problems and try to contribute to behavioral change, but the impact of this message is not enough to adequately battle the many-headed monster. We should, therefore, also look for other solutions. Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 1242-1250). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
It Is Time to Collaborate An example of such a mechanism: visualize a living room, with a big pot of delicious-smelling soup on a table. Sitting around the table are skinny, sickly looking people. Spoons that are longer than their arms are attached to their arms. Therefore, they cannot bring the spoons to their mouths and they are slowly starving. Now visualize another room, with exactly the same setting, but with a big difference. The people are all well-fed and healthy. They are laughing and talking to each other. And they can do that because they have learned to feed each other with the long spoons. This metaphor, from an interview with the former UN climate chief Yvo de Boer, is a vivid example of how we are capable of solving problems when we collaborate seamlessly instead of waiting for the other to act first. When we use the right mechanisms— in this case the long spoons to feed each other— anything is possible. What does this have to do with Big Data? Everything. As we show hereafter, Big Data provides possibilities to design mechanisms that promote sustainability. Economic science can help us achieve that. We do have to make sure however, that our understanding of the term ‘the economy’ is not limited— as is often the case in daily discourse— to everything related to money. In essence, economic science is about the needs of human beings, wherever they may be in the world, both the current and future generations, in terms of both time and space. One of the basic principles in economic thinking is that individuals and companies maximize their own value and through that also create a wealthy society. 4 Unfortunately, that principle is not always applicable to just any real-world system without considering the boundary conditions, which in essence has led to the sustainability crisis. For example, take the commuter that gets into his car every day and joins the traffic jam on the way to work. The commuter’s reasoning is mainly based on self-interest and he does not think about the delay that he is causing for the people that will join the queue of traffic behind him. The choices that we make are largely disconnected from the consequences of those choices for the people that come after us. This phenomenon is known as the tragedy of the commons5 and plays a key role in the sustainability problem: maximizing the value for ourselves is taken to such an extreme that the societal value is ultimately diminished. Back to the example of the commuter: because of self-interest, the commuter chooses to hit the road at the time that best suits him, which also contributes to the collective traffic jam. Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 1266-1269). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
Environment
Environmental destruction threatens the economy
Klouse & Werilaard, 2016
Sander Klous1, 3 and Nart Wielaard2 (1) Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, North Holland, The Netherlands (2) Nart BV, Haarlem, North Holland, The Netherlands (3) Management Consulting, KPMG, Amstelveen, North Holland,, The Netherlands Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 396-401). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
Nevertheless, we are convinced that mechanism design can at least contribute to solving the sustainability problem. One of the conditions in this respect is that we need to have a clearer insight into the undesired (side) effects of our actions. We don’t have to respond only to idealistic motivations, because the sustainability crisis will (at least in time) also become an economic crisis. Attempts are being made to introduce a new standard for economic growth. Actually, we need to embrace an entirely different language when we talk about the economy. Terms such as productivity and growth are too limited. The OECD talks instead about ‘green growth’. Green growth means fostering economic growth and development, while ensuring that natural assets continue to provide the resources and environmental services on which our well-being relies. 13 However, in most political discussions, the economy is still reduced to discussions about money. It is because of this attitude that the area of sustainability is in such a state: it is hard to put a price tag on a fish killed by pollution or acres of forest lost through illegal logging. The damage done by companies and people to the environment by overusing scarce resources is not translated into costs for themselves, but is passed on to the next generation instead. These hidden costs— in economic jargon ‘externalities’— rose by 50 % from $ 566 billion per year in 2002 to $ 854 billion in 2010 according to a global study in 2010.14 In other words, every year we are ‘stealing’ $ 854 billion from future generations. Those costs are not visible in the annual accounts of companies, although there are some early adopters who are voluntarily experimenting with making these externalities visible under the title ‘true value’ or ‘true cost’. Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 1404-1410). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
Answers to: Destroys Humanity
Nope, it improves our lives
Klouse & Werilaard, 2016
Sander Klous1, 3 and Nart Wielaard2 (1) Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, North Holland, The Netherlands (2) Nart BV, Haarlem, North Holland, The Netherlands (3) Management Consulting, KPMG, Amstelveen, North Holland,, The Netherlands Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 396-401). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
In light of the above, it will not be a surprise to you that we are not going to sketch doomsday scenarios about how the new information society will change us into zombies without choices or free will. It is our opinion that we should not see the development of Big Data as an erosion of our existence and the free choices that we can make. Big Data and society will increasingly fuse together. Slowly but surely, we will feel at ease with the comfort that it brings us and will integrate it seamlessly into our behavior. In this respect, professor Verbeek points out that some people feel more like themselves when taking Prozac, which he sees as evidence that current technological developments are putting a radical end to the idea that humans are autonomous and authentic subjects whose characteristics we should be able to understand. We can draw a parallel between that position and the manner in which Big Data influences our lives. For example, we receive a tailor-made advertisement for new car tires because ‘the system’ knows that we have driven 50,000 miles on the old ones; we have a virtual assistant that gives us a digital poke when it is time to leave for our appointment because it can see that there is a traffic jam on our route; a music app introduces us to music that we will probably like because it knows what we love from our profile; when we are looking for our friends at a festival, we can localize them with an app. And we are okay with all this. In Chap. 5, we argued that Big Data may contribute to solving the sustainability crisis in which the world finds itself. Big Data makes it possible to develop new mechanisms that motivate or even force us to contribute to a good society. Or at least to what we have defined as a good society. Many articles and opinion pieces put Big Data in the category of evil concepts that are threatening society, as if it is something that has to be restrained and restricted in order to safeguard our freedom. That is understandable because indiscriminately accepting it involves many dangers. We have to consider Big Data as an integral part of the information society however, so that we can have an ethical discussion about it. Not only about Big Data as such, but about a society with Big Data, a society that is continuously reinvented by new applications of Big Data. We can embrace that as a form of progress, as long as we maintain the basic rule that we understand what we are doing with Big Data and why we are doing it and retain the ability to choose ourselves what we find acceptable. If we do that, a society that takes responsibility for its own existence will develop. A society that discusses fundamental frameworks and does not just deal with the fallout from incorrect analyses performed by, for example, banks or insurance companies. In order to achieve this, we require different competencies than those with which we are currently equipped. We have to start thinking differently about the profile of data scientists, but above all, about the entire education system in a wider sense. Klous, Sander; Wielaard, Nart. We are Big Data: The Future of the Information Society (Kindle Locations 1615-1619). Atlantis Press. Kindle Edition.
Police Body Cameras Good
Police Body Cameras Link
Iot includes Police Body Cameras
Adam Thierer, Senior Research Fellow, Mercatus Center at George Mason University, The Internet of Things and Wearable Technology: Addressing Privacy and Security Concerns without Derailing Innovation, 21 RICH. J.L. & TECH. 6 (2015), http://jolt.richmond.edu/v21i2/article6.pdf
[31] Beyond health and fitness applications, wearables can be used to enhance personal convenience. For example, wearables can be used in homes to tailor environmental experiences, such as automatically adjusting lighting, temperature, or entertainment options as users move from one space to another. Even if these technologies do not catch on as mass-market consumer products, wearable technology may come to be more widely used in a variety of business and organizations.116 Some of the more exciting potential professional uses of wearable technology include the following
Surgery: Surgeons are already using wearable technology to better perform complex procedures, and in the future, wearable technology might be able to help them do this remotely.117 • Emergency care: Ambulances can be equipped with various IoT devices to more quickly diagnose what ails patients and then provide immediate treatment in the precious minutes after accidents or other health emergencies.118
• Firefighting: In coming years, firefighters might use wearable technology to respond to fires and other emergencies more rapidly using heads-up displays to obtain instant readouts of building schematics or environmental conditions.119
• Law enforcement: Wearables could transform the field of law enforcement but also raise some surveillance concerns in the process. Importantly, however, average citizens will also be able to use wearable technologies to monitor the activities of those same law enforcement officials. 120
They will have the First Amendment right to do so.121 This technology could provide a powerful check on abusive behavior by law enforcement officers, while giving those officers the ability to corroborate their accounts of incidents and altercations.1
Police Body Cameras Good
Cameras Protect Police
Video recorded on bystander cell phones anyhow, police cameras have accurate recording
Randal Stross, April 6, 2013, New York Times, “Wearing a badge, and a video camera,” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/07/business/wearable-video-cameras-for-police-officers.html?_r=2& DOA: 5-27-15
But when Mr. Farrar told his uniformed patrol officers of his plans to introduce the new, wearable video cameras, “it wasn’t the easiest sell,” he said, especially to some older officers who initially were “questioning why ‘big brother’ should see everything they do.” He said he reminded them that civilians could use their cellphones to record interactions, “so instead of relying on somebody else’s partial picture of what occurred, why not have your own?” he asked. “In this way, you have the real one.”
Cameras reduce unfounded accusations against police
Randal Stross, April 6, 2013, New York Times, “Wearing a badge, and a video camera,” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/07/business/wearable-video-cameras-for-police-officers.html?_r=2& DOA: 5-27-15
Mr. Stanley says that all parties stand to benefit — the public is protected from police misconduct, and officers are protected from bogus complaints. “There are many police officers who’ve had a cloud fall over them because of an unfounded accusation of abuse,” he said. “Now police officers won’t have to worry so much about that kind of thing.” Mr. Farrar says officers have told him of cases when citizens arrived at a Rialto police station to file a complaint and the supervisor was able to retrieve and play on the spot the video of what had transpired. “The individuals left the station with basically no other things to say and have never come back,” he said.
Reduce Complaints Against Police
When police are wearing cameras, complaints against police go down
Randal Stross, April 6, 2013, New York Times, “Wearing a badge, and a video camera,” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/07/business/wearable-video-cameras-for-police-officers.html?_r=2& DOA: 5-27-15
THE Rialto study began in February 2012 and will run until this July. The results from the first 12 months are striking. Even with only half of the 54 uniformed patrol officers wearing cameras at any given time, the department over all had an 88 percent decline in the number of complaints filed against officers, compared with the 12 months before the study, to 3 from 24.
Reduce Police Use of Force
When wearing cameras, police use force less frequently
Randal Stross, April 6, 2013, New York Times, “Wearing a badge, and a video camera,” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/07/business/wearable-video-cameras-for-police-officers.html?_r=2& DOA: 5-27-15
Rialto’s police officers also used force nearly 60 percent less often — in 25 instances, compared with 61. When force was used, it was twice as likely to have been applied by the officers who weren’t wearing cameras during that shift, the study found. And, lest skeptics think that the officers with cameras are selective about which encounters they record, Mr. Farrar noted that those officers who apply force while wearing a camera have always captured the incident on video.
Police violence/use of force is high
Jay Stanley, American Civil Liberties Union, 2013, “Police Body-Mounted Cameras: With Right Policies in Place, a Win For all,” https://www.aclu.org/police-body-mounted-cameras-right-policies-place-win-all DOA: 5-27-15
Much interest in the technology stems from a growing recognition that the United States has a real problem with police violence. In 2011, police killed six people in Australia, two in England, six in Germany and, according to an FBI count, 404 in the United States. And that FBI number counted only “justifiable homicides,” and was comprised of voluntarily submitted data from just 750 of 17,000 law enforcement agencies. Attempts by journalists to compile more complete data by collating local news reports have resulted in estimates as high as 1,000 police killings per year in the United States. Fully a quarter of the deaths involved a white officer killing a black person.
Innapropriate use of force is a significant problem
Harvard Law Review, April 10, 2015, “Considering Policy Body Cameras,” http://harvardlawreview.org/2015/04/considering-police-body-cameras/ DOA: 5-27-15
Marcus Jeter was arrested by New Jersey police officers during the summer of 2012 and subsequently charged with “eluding police, resisting arrest and aggravated assault on an officer.”Parts of this encounter were caught on tape by the dashboard camera in the officers’ cruiser.Jeter maintained from the beginning that the officers had used excessive force while arresting him, and that he had not acted violently.22The Bloomfield Police Department conducted an internal investigation and found “the officers did nothing wrong.”Jeter’s criminal case thus moved forward, and he considered accepting a plea deal that would have required him to serve five years in prison.24But then, nearly a year after Jeter’s arrest, his attorney uncovered evidence that a second police cruiser had been on the scene that night — “a fact that was left out of the police report.”25After filing an open-records request with the township, his attorney obtained video footage taken by the dashcam in the second car.26This footage was allegedly never seen by the prosecutor’s office, though it had been in the possession of the police department since 2012.27In the recovered video, the second police car is seen “swerv[ing] across oncoming traffic and running into the front of Jeter’s SUV, causing him to hit his head on the steering wheel.”28The footage also clearly shows Jeter with his hands in the air, sitting passively in the driver’s seat as officers approach the car — one pointing a pistol at the window, the other armed with a shotgun.29An officer then “uses a baton to smash the driver’s side window[,] . . . rip[s] the innocent man from his car[,] and throw[s] him on the ground.”30While beating Jeter, the officer yells “stop resisting” and “stop trying to take my f—— gun” — although the camera footage indicates that Jeter was neither resisting nor capable of reaching for the officer’s gun.31After Jeter is dragged out of his car, “his face is smashed into the cement . . . [and] another officer takes a swing at his head.”In light of this footage, the prosecutors dropped all The officers involved with the incident have since been indicted: one retired after pleading guilty to tampering, and two were arraigned “on charges of official misconduct, tampering with public records, and false documents and false swearing.”34If not for the dashcam video, Jeter would almost certainly have spent several years of his life in a prison cell while the officers answered to no one for their actions.Jeter’s story is just one example of the endemic problem of police misconduct, which has long been an issue of public concern, particularly with respect to interactions between police and people of color.Of the almost five thousand misconduct reports filed each year against the police, excessive force complaints make up nearly one-quarter,with close to ten percent of those cases having resulted in a civilian fatality.Growing anxiety over police abuse has negatively impacted police departments’ public relations, and such tensions have hampered the effectiveness of law enforcement in the communities they police.38Police departments are also forced to expend hundreds of millions of dollars each year to resolve these complaints.
Without the videos, only the police side of the story is told
Timothy Williams, April 25, 2015, New York Times, “Downside of Police Body Cameras: Your Arrest Hits YouTube,” http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/27/us/downside-of-police-body-cameras-your-arrest-hits-youtube.html DOA: 4-27-15
“If the public doesn’t have the opportunity to view the video on their own, they are left with the police version of what happened, and as we’ve seen recently, their version isn’t always what happened,” said Laniece Williams, spokeswoman for the Philadelphia Coalition for Racial, Economic and Legal Justice. “Even in cases where there isn’t a fatal shooting,” she continued, “there are instances where police brutalize people and the public should be able to see the video.”
A2: Privacy/Rights
Surveillance of police checks the power of the government
Although we at the ACLU generally take a dim view of the proliferation of surveillance cameras in American life, police on-body cameras are different because of their potential to serve as a check against the abuse of power by police officers. Historically, there was no documentary evidence of most encounters between police officers and the public, and due to the volatile nature of those encounters, this often resulted in radically divergent accounts of incidents. Cameras have the potential to be a win-win, helping protect the public against police misconduct, and at the same time helping protect police against false accusations of abuse. We're against pervasive government surveillance, but when cameras primarily serve the function of allowing public monitoring of the government instead of the other way around, we generally support their use. While we have opposed government video surveillance of public places, for example, we have supported the installation of video cameras on police car dashboards, in prisons, and during interrogations.
A2: Regulations Solve Problems (Like Privacy) With Police Use of the Cameras
Regulations on police use of the body cameras just normalize the use of an inappropriate technology the supports surveillance of communities of color and ends up being manipulated by the police
George Joseph, May 15, 2015, The Intercept, “Guidelines No Panacea and Might Make Things Worse,” https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/05/15/police-body-cameras-need-regulated-destroyed/ DOA: 5-27-15
This morning, tomuchbuzznationwide, a coalition of over 30privacy and civil rights organizationsreleased a statement of shared principles outlining their vision for the future use of police body cameras. The coalition statement argues that body camera footage documenting police interactions with the public “can have a valuable role to play in the present and future of policing,” but insiststhat safeguards be put in place to ensurethat body cameras do not become a “tool for injustice.”Signatories includeACLU, the NAACP, Color of Change and the Electronic Frontier Foundation.The coalition’s five principles are that police departments must:• develop policies for body cameras in public • specifynarrowly defined purposes for their use • createclear policies for the recording and retention of footage • make footage publicly available, with privacy safeguards • prevent police officers from viewing the footage before filing reportsSome observers are concerned such recommendations may be counterproductive, especially if used to legitimize a technology that in the end will likely be left up to the self-regulation of police departments or their local government allies across the country. “[A]ll this energy towards accountability … can be flipped into increased surveillance in communities of color and increased budgets to police,” activist Andrew Padilla told investigative journalist Raven Rakia last year. Padilla, who films civilian-police encounters as part of CopWatchNYC, pointed out that body cameras “record civilians. In cop watch, you record police.” “Police shouldn’t have any control of the footage,” says Rakia, who focuses on the criminal justice system. “As you see with CCTV cameras everywhere, its very hard to get footage of police … a lawyer might be able to for a case, but for the public and press it’s very difficult. The police and the DA have complete control over footage and only use it to their advantage.”
Cloud Computing Advantage
The Cloud
Innovation in software vital to solve every existential risk
Hayes, 14(Correspondent-Democrat & Chronicle, 10/5, Bill Gates sees innovation solving world problems, http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/money/business/2014/10/05/bill-gates-sees-innovation-solving-world-problems/16760969/)
ITHACA – Bill Gates delivered an optimistic message about the future to Cornell University students during a back-and-forth Wednesday evening with President David Skorton. Gates, who fielded questions from the audience, spoke to the packed auditorium at Bailey Hall with the message that innovations in science, medicine and computer technologies will continue to shape the world for the better. Progress in reducing health and income inequalities in developing countries gave him particular pride, he said. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which he co-chairs with his wife, has dispersed more than $30 billion in grants since its inception 14 years ago. The foundation has a mission to improve education in the United States and a global focus on improving people’s health in poor countries. “We saw that health was the greatest injustice,” he told Skorton about his foundation’s mission to improve people’s health. Feeding the poor is only one priority of the Gates Foundation. The philanthropic group has helped lower the number of childhood deaths from 10 million in 2000 to about 6 million today. His goal is to reduce that further to 2 million, he said. He expressed optimism that research into diseases that ravage the poorer parts of the world — malaria, cholera, tuberculosis and others — will continue to be funded. Economic development in poorer countries has helped reduce global inequality, which he said is at a lower level than it has ever been. “The world is A, much richer, and B, much richer in a far more equitable way,” he told the students. That has been the opposite of what has happened in the past three decades or so in the United States, he said. He called for tax policies to help level that inequality, with a progressive consumption tax and a high estate tax that limits the dynastic possession of wealth. While he expressed concern about the current political climate in the country, he felt that science innovations can overcome problems in Washington, D.C. “The things that count in society don’t depend on politicians being geniuses,” he said. At the dedication Gates had a similar optimistic message earlier in the day during the dedication ceremony of Gates Hall. Gates said it’s an exciting time to be involved in the computer sciences, even more than when he got involved 46 years ago. Despite the advances over the past few decades, he said, “the full dream of what is possible with computing has not yet been realized.” Problems like developing vaccines, energy sources without carbon dioxide emissions, and understanding issues as diverse as neurological disease and weather forecasting can all be tackled with emerging technologies. “With every one of these problems, the digital tools combined with really amazing software are going to be the reason that we can solve these things,” he said. He said figuring out solutions depends on software-intensive techniques, and that Cornell students will be poised to make gains in those fields.
Software developments key to address every global problem
Aznar, 12(Columnist-Sun Star, 7/23, Software ‘can solve world’s problems,’ http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/business/2012/07/23/software-can-solve-world-s-problems-233596)
WITH seven billion people in the world riddled with problems like climate change, cancer, transport deadlocks and financial crises, a computer science professor believes computer software can be developed to solve the world’s problems. Srini Devadas, a professor of electrical engineering and computer science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), in a lecture entitled “Programming the Future,” said that if the huge amount of data available in the world is processed efficiently to discover patterns or hidden meanings, much progress can be done in many different fields, such as healthcare, finance and energy. Devadas was flown in from MIT in Cambridge, Massachusetts to the Philippines to participate in the MIT Lecture Series conducted by Accenture, which is part of the company’s collaboration with the MIT Professional Education. The collaboration, called the Accenture Technology Academy, is a career development program of the company that earns for its employees four types of certifications to further the technical development of their IT workers. This month, the company is also dedicating celebrations for technology and made Devadas’ lecture available for some 200 IT professionals and students yesterday. Computing paradigms Devadas’ talk focused on three computing paradigms considered central to the progress in computers, software and hardware–programming for everyone, big data and crowds to clouds. A shortened part of his talk was presented to reporters and he showed simple applications that could be useful to everyone, such as a program that replies to a text message sender that the person is driving. Devadas said that most enterprises today generate more data than they can process and that the amount of data grows 50 percent yearly. “It’s hard to keep up with all this data. Think of it as a fire hose and try to drink water from it. It can’t be done,” he said. “The best approach to tackling big data is to combine the strengths of both human and machine,” he added.
Data driven healthcare is the critical factor in disease prevention – revolutionizes planning and treatment
Marr 15 (Bernard, contributor to Forbes, he also basically wrote the book on internet data – called Big Data – and is a keynote speaker and consultant in strategic performance, analytics, KPIs and big data, “How Big Data Is Changing Healthcare”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2015/04/21/how-big-data-is-changing-healthcare/)
If you want to find out how Big Data is helping to make the world a better place, there’s no better example thanthe uses being found for it in healthcare.The last decade has seenhugeadvances in the amount of data we routinely generate and collect in pretty much everything we do, as well as our ability to use technology to analyze and understand it. The intersection of these trends is what we call “Big Data” and it is helping businesses in every industry to become more efficient and productive. Healthcare is no different. Beyond improving profits and cutting down on wasted overhead, Big Data in healthcare is being used to predict epidemics, cure disease, improve quality of life and avoid preventable deaths. With the world’s population increasing and everyone living longer, models of treatment delivery are rapidly changing, and many of the decisions behind those changes are being driven by data. The drive now is to understand as much about a patient as possible, as early in their life as possible – hopefully picking up warning signs of serious illness at an early enough stage that treatment is far more simple (and less expensive) than if it had not been spotted until later. So to take a journey through Big Data in healthcare, let’s start at the beginning – before we even get ill. Wearable blood pressure monitors send data to a smartphone app, then off to the doctor. (Photo by John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) Prevention is better than cure Smart phones were just the start. With apps enabling them to be used as everything from pedometers to measure how far you walk in a day, to calorie counters to help you plan your diet, millions of us are now using mobile technology to help us try and live healthier lifestyles. More recently, a steady stream of dedicated wearable devices have emerged such as Fitbit, Jawbone and Samsung Gear Fit that allow you to track your progress and upload your data to be compiled alongside everyone else’s. In the very near future, you could also be sharing this data with your doctor who will use it as part of his or her diagnostic toolbox when you visit them with an ailment. Even if there’s nothing wrong with you, access tohuge, ever growing databases of information about the state of the health of the general public will allow problems to be spotted before they occur, and remedies – either medicinal or educational – to be prepared in advanceThis is leading to ground breaking work, often by partnerships between medical and data professionals, with the potential to peer into the future and identify problems before they happen. One recently formed example of such a partnership is the Pittsburgh Health Data Alliance – which aims to take data from various sources (such as medical and insurance records, wearable sensors, genetic data and even social media use) to draw a comprehensive picture of the patient as an individual, in order to offer a tailored healthcare package. That person’s data won’t be treated in isolation. It will be compared and analyzed alongside thousands of others, highlighting specific threats and issues through patterns that emerge during the comparison. This enables sophisticated predictive modelling to take place – a doctor will be able to assess the likely result of whichever treatment he or she is considering prescribing, backed up by the data from other patients with the same condition, genetic factors and lifestyle. Programs such as this are the industry’s attempt to tackle one of the biggest hurdles in the quest for data-driven healthcare: The medical industry collects a huge amount of data but often it is siloed in archives controlled by different doctors’ surgeries, hospitals, clinics and administrative departments. Another partnership that has just been announced is between Apple and IBM. The two companies are collaborating on a big data health platform that will allow iPhone and Apple Watch users to share data to IBM’s Watson Health cloud healthcare analytics service. The aim is to discover new medical insights from crunching real-time activity and biometric data from millions of potential users.
An international approach is key – only cooperation solves
Donahue et al 10 (Donald A. Donahue Jr, DHEd, MBA, FACHE, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies and University of Maryland University College Stephen O. Cunnion, MD, PhD, MPH, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies Fred L. Brocker, MPH, RS, Brocker Staffing & Consulting, Inc. Richard H. Carmona, MD, MPH, FACS, 17th Surgeon General of the United States & University of Arizona, https://www.academia.edu/3651172/Soft_Power_of_Solid_Medicine ekr)
In this article, the authors argue that a broader, coordinated program of medical diplomacy would generate dual benefits: increased global engagement and stability and the creation of a worldwide disease surveillance network that could detect and deter an emerging pandemic. Framing the Issue At an April 2008 conference on preparedness hosted by the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies’ National Security Health Policy Center, Dr. C. Everett Koop observed that our national approach to communicable disease has not changed in over a century. In Foggy Bottom—at the far end of the National Mall from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)— diplomacy is similarly practiced as it was 100 years ago. This seemingly strange correlation and recent world events point to the need to augment nineteenth-century “Gunboat Diplomacy” with twenty-first-century “Hospital Ship Diplomacy.” Linking the considerable scientific and public health expertise of HHS to the diplomatic mission of the State Department would serve to bolster both the U.S. international diplomacy mission and improve global public health (Avery 2010). The positive impact of projecting quality public health and medical expertise—on a consistent basis—to the developing world is well documented (Gillert 1996). The success of General Petreaus’ approach in Iraq is attributed largely to enhancing the availability of the civic infrastructure (Patraeus 2006). Médecins San Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) and similar nongovernment organizations (NGOs) sow well documented international goodwill. Even the Taliban recognize the value of providing medical infrastructure services where the government does not. Providing these services was a significant factor in their early successes in parts of Afghanistan and the frontier provinces of Pakistan (Homas 2008). Serving the needs of vulnerable populations can be an entrée to acceptance, including providing a salve for an otherwise unwanted foreign military presence. It should be noted that when U.S. Marine and French paratrooper barracks were bombed in Beirut in 1983, Italian medical troops were left unharmed. The efficacy of medical diplomacy in underserved regions has been validated by first-hand experience. As a young Army medic serving in Phu Bai, Vietnam in 1971, one of the authors built an 80-bed hospital which was named “Tu Ai,” a Vietnamese-Buddhist term for peace. This facility provided medical treatment to all in need with no questions asked. After the fall of South Vietnam in 1975, the Tu Ai medical facility was the only one in the I Corps area of operations (and perhaps of all Vietnam) that was allowed by the new government to continue its mission unchanged. It continues to provide medical care to this very day. There is ample precedent that supporting improvements in world health produces a political payoff, as evidenced by multiple, if sometimes disjointed, efforts (Avery 2010; Public Health Systems Research Interest Group Advisory Board 2009; Macqueen KM, et al. 2001; Subcommittee on Oversight & Investigations 2008). The U.S. and other nations’ military organizations routinely conduct medical assistance missions throughout the developing world. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and a number of medical NGOs regularly provide disaster and humanitarian medical and public health assistance. Significant goodwill was engendered by deployment of U.S. Army, Navy, and Public Health Service (PHS) Commissioned Corps resources to Banda Aceh after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami and, more recently, to Haiti. Relief missions to Pakistan have been mounted following the 2005 earthquake and again in response to recent, epic flooding. Defining an Underutilized Resource as an Available Solution. The benefit of having a robust, organized health and medical presence around the globe to help collect and disseminate medical information and coordinate public health activities, including humanitarian assistance, is less obvious. This benefit is manifested in three ways: the fostering of human security, the increase in effectiveness of global public health efforts, and an increase in political legitimacy (Nye 2004). While it is beyond the scope of this commentary to debate the components and relative merits of human security, history supports the position that a population with increased levels of disease and illness is more susceptible to destabilizing factors that can pose direct threats to state viability and create fertile fields for radicalism and insurgency (WHO 2007). This is especially true if there are very clear differences in healthcare and public health services available to ruling and elite classes compared to that available to the general population. Reflective of this, the National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) routinely assesses medical information and reports on diseases and poor public health conditions that may contribute to politically destabilizing a county (e.g., AIDS). Despite significant, if disparate, initiatives and interest for improving international health throughout the executive branch of the U.S. government, these collective efforts lack meaningful coordination into a comprehensive approach on foreign health diplomacy, and therefore fail to realize the cumulative benefit of and the inherent political stabilization impact fostered by an organized and coordinated global health improvement effort. Even with improved political stability, the need for increased global health capabilities continues unabated. The emergence of SARS, H5N1 influenza, and the pandemic H1N1 outbreak clearly demonstrates that national borders and ocean expanses no longer protect us from far-flung illnesses. In a global economy and with the ability to travel almost anywhere in the world within 24–36 hours, a local infectious disease aberration can become an international health crisis in a matter of days. Moreover, because H1N1 influenza turned out to be not as deadly as feared, the danger of a future calamitous pandemic occurring could be enhanced because the public may not heed future health official warnings. This is not limited to individual perception. In a rare divergence of political and clinical focus regarding communicable disease, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe soundly criticized the World Health Organization (WHO) and national health authorities for “distortion of priorities of public health services across Europe, waste of large sums of public money, and also unjustified scares and fears about health risks faced by the European public at large” (Flynn 2010).
Zoonotic diseases coming now – effective healthcare is key to check
Naish 12 (Reporter for Daily Mail, “The Armageddon virus: Why experts fear a disease that leaps from animals to humans could devastate mankind in the next five years Warning comes after man died from a Sars-like virus that had previously only been seen in bats Earlier this month a man from Glasgow died from a tick-borne disease that is widespread in domestic and wild animals in Africa and Asia”http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217774/The-Armageddon-virus-Why-experts-fear-disease-leaps-animals-humans-devastate-mankind-years.html#ixzz3E5kqxjQI)
The symptoms appear suddenly with a headache, high fever, joint pain, stomach pain and vomiting. As the illness progresses, patients can develop large areas of bruising and uncontrolled bleeding. In at least 30 per cent of cases, Crimean-Congo Viral Hemorrhagic Fever is fatal. And so it proved this month when a 38-year-old garage owner from Glasgow, who had been to his brother’s wedding in Afghanistan, became the UK’s first confirmed victim of the tick-borne viral illness when he died at the high-security infectious disease unit at London’s Royal Free Hospital. It is a disease widespread in domestic and wild animals in Africa and Asia — and one that has jumped the species barrier to infect humans with deadly effect. But the unnamed man’s death was not the only time recently a foreign virus had struck in this country for the first time. Last month, a 49-year-old man entered London’s St Thomas’ hospital with a raging fever, severe cough and desperate difficulty in breathing. He bore all the hallmarks of the deadly Sars virus that killed nearly 1,000 people in 2003 — but blood tests quickly showed that this terrifyingly virulent infection was not Sars. Nor was it any other virus yet known to medical science. Worse still, the gasping, sweating patient was rapidly succumbing to kidney failure, a potentially lethal complication that had never before been seen in such a case. As medical staff quarantined their critically-ill patient, fearful questions began to mount. The stricken man had recently come from Qatar in the Middle East. What on earth had he picked up there? Had he already infected others with it? Using the latest high-tech gene-scanning technique, scientists at the Health Protection Agency started to piece together clues from tissue samples taken from the Qatari patient, who was now hooked up to a life-support machine. The results were extraordinary. Yes, the virus is from the same family as Sars. But its make-up is completely new. It has come not from humans, but from animals. Its closest known relatives have been found in Asiatic bats. The investigators also discovered that the virus has already killed someone. Searches of global medical databases revealed the same mysterious virus lurking in samples taken from a 60-year-old man who had died in Saudi Arabia in July. Scroll down for video Potentially deadly: The man suffered from CCHF, a disease transmitted by ticks (pictured) which is especially common in East and West Africa Potentially deadly: The man suffered from CCHF, a disease transmitted by ticks (pictured) which is especially common in East and West Africa When the Health Protection Agency warned the world of this newly- emerging virus last month, it ignited a stark fear among medical experts. Could this be the next bird flu, or even the next ‘Spanish flu’ — the world’s biggest pandemic, which claimed between 50 million and 100 million lives across the globe from 1918 to 1919? In all these outbreaks, the virus responsible came from an animal. Analysts now believe that the Spanish flu pandemic originated from a wild aquatic bird. The terrifying fact is that viruses that manage to jump to us from animals — called zoonoses — can wreak havoc because of their astonishing ability to catch us on the hop and spread rapidly through the population when we least expect it. The virus's power and fatality rates are terrifying One leading British virologist, Professor John Oxford at Queen Mary Hospital, University of London, and a world authority on epidemics, warns that we must expect an animal-originated pandemic to hit the world within the next five years, with potentially cataclysmic effects on the human race. Such a contagion, he believes, will be a new strain of super-flu, a highly infectious virus that may originate in some far-flung backwater of Asia or Africa, and be contracted by one person from a wild animal or domestic beast, such as a chicken or pig. By the time the first victim has succumbed to this unknown, unsuspected new illness, they will have spread it by coughs and sneezes to family, friends, and all those gathered anxiously around them. Thanks to our crowded, hyper-connected world, this doomsday virus will already have begun crossing the globe by air, rail, road and sea before even the best brains in medicine have begun to chisel at its genetic secrets. Before it even has a name, it will have started to cut its lethal swathe through the world’s population. The high security unit High security: The high security unit where the man was treated for the potentially fatal disease but later died If this new virus follows the pattern of the pandemic of 1918-1919, it will cruelly reap mass harvests of young and fit people. They die because of something called a ‘cytokine storm’ — a vast overreaction of their strong and efficient immune systems that is prompted by the virus. This uncontrolled response burns them with a fever and wracks their bodies with nausea and massive fatigue. The hyper-activated immune system actually kills the person, rather than killing the super-virus.Professor Oxford bases his prediction on historical patterns. The past century has certainly provided us with many disturbing precedents. For example, the 2003 global outbreak of Sars, the severe acute respiratory syndrome that killed nearly 1,000 people, was transmitted to humans from Asian civet cats in China. More... Man, 38, dies from deadly tropical disease after returning to the UK from Afghanistan Nine-year-old who turns YELLOW with anger: Brianna must spend 12 hours a day under UV lights because of rare condition In November 2002, it first spread among people working at a live animal market in the southern Guangdong province, where civets were being sold. Nowadays, the threat from such zoonoses is far greater than ever, thanks to modern technology and human population growth. Mass transport such as airliners can quickly fan outbreaks of newly- emerging zoonoses into deadly global wildfires. The Sars virus was spread when a Chinese professor of respiratory medicine treating people with the syndrome fell ill when he travelled to Hong Kong, carrying the virus with him. By February 2003, it had covered the world by hitching easy lifts with airline passengers. Between March and July 2003, some 8,400 probable cases of Sars had been reported in 32 countries. It is a similar story with H1N1 swine flu, the 2009 influenza pandemic that infected hundreds of millions throughout the world. It is now believed to have originated in herds of pigs in Mexico before infecting humans who boarded flights to myriad destinations. Once these stowaway viruses get off the plane, they don’t have to learn a new language or new local customs.Genetically, we humans are not very diverse; an epidemic that can kill people in one part of the world can kill them in any other just as easily. On top of this, our risk of catching such deadly contagions from wild animals is growing massively, thanks to humankind’s relentless encroachment into the world’s jungles and rainforests, where we increasingly come into contact for the first time with unknown viral killers that have been evolving and incubating in wild creatures for millennia. This month, an international research team announced it had identified an entirely new African virus that killed two teenagers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2009. The virus induced acute hemorrhagic fever, which causes catastrophic widespread bleeding from the eyes, ears, nose and mouth, and can kill in days. A 15-year-old boy and a 13-year-old girl who attended the same school both fell ill suddenly and succumbed rapidly. A week after the girl’s death, a nurse who cared for her developed similar symptoms. He only narrowly survived. The new microbe is named Bas-Congo virus (BASV), after the province where its three victims lived. It belongs to a family of viruses known as rhabdoviruses, which includes rabies. A report in the journal PLoS Pathogens says the virus probably originated in local wildlife and was passed to humans through insect bites or some other as-yet unidentified means. There are plenty of other new viral candidates waiting in the wings, guts, breath and blood of animals around us. You can, for example, catch leprosy from armadillos, which carry the virus in their shells and are responsible for a third of leprosy cases in the U.S. Horses can transmit the Hendra virus, which can cause lethal respiratory and neurological disease in people. In a new book that should give us all pause for thought, award-winning U.S. natural history writer David Quammen points to a host of animal-derived infections that now claim lives with unprecedented regularity. The trend can only get worse, he warns. Quammen highlights the Ebola fever virus, which first struck in Zaire in 1976. The virus’s power is terrifying, with fatality rates as high as 90 per cent. The latest mass outbreak of the virus, in the Congo last month, is reported to have killed 36 people out of 81 suspected cases. According to Quammen, Ebola probably originated in bats. The bats then infected African apes, quite probably through the apes coming into contact with bat droppings. The virus then infected local hunters who had eaten the apes as bushmeat. Quammen believes a similar pattern occurred with the HIV virus, which probably originated in a single chimpanzee in Cameroon. 'It is inevitable we will have a global outbreak' Studies of the virus’s genes suggest it may have first evolved as early as 1908. It was not until the Sixties that it appeared in humans, in big African cities. By the Eighties, it was spreading by airlines to America. Since then, Aids has killed around 30 million people and infected another 33 million. There is one mercy with Ebola and HIV. They cannot be transmitted by coughs and sneezes. ‘Ebola is transmissible from human to human through direct contact with bodily fluids. It can be stopped by preventing such contact,’ Quammen explains. ‘If HIV could be transmitted by air, you and I might already be dead. If the rabies virus — another zoonosis — could be transmitted by air, it would be the most horrific pathogen on the planet.’ Viruses such as Ebola have another limitation, on top of their method of transmission. They kill and incapacitate people too quickly. In order to spread into pandemics, zoonoses need their human hosts to be both infectious and alive for as long as possible, so that the virus can keep casting its deadly tentacles across the world’s population. But there is one zoonosis that can do all the right (or wrong) things. It is our old adversary, flu. It is easily transmitted through the air, via sneezes and coughs. Sars can do this, too. But flu has a further advantage. As Quammen points out: ‘With Sars, symptoms tend to appear in a person before, rather than after, that person becomes highly infectious. Isolation: Unlike Sars the symptoms of this new disease may not be apparent before the spread of infection Isolation: Unlike Sars the symptoms of this new disease may not be apparent before the spread of infection ‘That allowed many Sars cases to be recognised, hospitalised and placed in isolation before they hit their peak of infectivity. But with influenza and many other diseases, the order is reversed.’Someone who has an infectious case of a new and potentially lethal strain of flu can be walking about innocently spluttering it over everyone around them for days before they become incapacitated. Such reasons lead Professor Oxford, a world authority on epidemics, to warn that a new global pandemic of animal-derived flu is inevitable. And, he says, the clock is ticking fast. Professor Oxford’s warning is as stark as it is certain: ‘I think it is inevitable that we will have another big global outbreak of flu,’ he says. ‘We should plan for one emerging in 2017-2018.’ But are we adequately prepared to cope? Professor Oxford warns that vigilant surveillance is the only real answer that we have. ‘New flu strains are a day-to-day problem and we have to be very careful to keep on top of them,’he says. ‘We now have scientific processes enabling us to quickly identify the genome of the virus behind a new illness, so that we know what we are dealing with. The best we can do after that is to develop and stockpile vaccines and antiviral drugs that can fight new strainsthat we see emerging.’ But the Professor is worried our politicians are not taking this certainty of mass death seriously enough. Such laxity could come at a human cost so unprecedentedly high that it would amount to criminal negligence. The race against newly-emerging animal-derived diseases is one that we have to win every time. A pandemic virus needs to win only once and it could be the end of humankind.
Zoonotic diseases specifically cause extinction
Casadevall 12 (Arturo, M.D., Ph.D. in Biochemistry from New York University, Leo and Julia Forchheimer Professor and Chair of the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at Albert Einstein College of Medicine, former editor of the ASM journal Infection and Immunity, “The future of biological warfare,” Microbial Biotechnology Volume 5, Issue 5, pages 584–587, September 2012, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1751-7915.2012.00340.x/full)
In considering the importance of biological warfare as a subject for concern it is worthwhile to review the known existential threats. At this time this writer can identify at three major existential threats to humanity: (i) large-scale thermonuclear war followed by a nuclear winter, (ii) a planet killing asteroid impact and (iii) infectious disease. To this trio might be added climate change making the planet uninhabitable. Of the three existential threats the first is deduced from the inferred cataclysmic effects of nuclear war. For the second there is geological evidence for the association of asteroid impacts with massive extinction (Alvarez, 1987). As to an existential threat from microbes recent decades have provided unequivocal evidence for the ability of certain pathogens to cause the extinction of entire species. Although infectious disease has traditionally not been associated with extinction this view has changed by the finding that a single chytrid fungus was responsible for the extinction of numerous amphibian species (Daszak et al., 1999; Mendelson et al., 2006). Previously, the view that infectious diseases were not a cause of extinction was predicated on the notion that many pathogens required their hosts and that some proportion of the host population was naturally resistant. However, that calculation does not apply to microbes that are acquired directly from the environment and have no need for a host, such as the majority of fungal pathogens. For those types of host–microbe interactions it is possible for the pathogen to kill off every last member of a species without harm to itself, since it would return to its natural habitat upon killing its last host. Hence, from the viewpoint of existential threats environmental microbes could potentially pose a much greater threat to humanity than the known pathogenic microbes, which number somewhere near 1500 species (Cleaveland et al., 2001; Taylor et al., 2001), especially if some of these species acquired the capacity for pathogenicity as a consequence of natural evolution or bioengineering.
to the particular communication in question, a simple framework emerges that allows courts to apply the SCA to modern technologies and addresses the concerns that prompted Congress to adopt the SCA. Only then can courts be sure that Congress’s intent is properly carried out.
Global Data Key
A globalized internet is the key internal link to big data and cloud computing success
Bauer et al 14(Matthias Bauer is Senior Economist at ECIPE. His areas of research include international trade as well as European fiscal and capital market policy. Matthias studied business administration at the University of Hull and economics at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena. He received his Ph.D. degree from the University of Jena after joining the Bundesbank graduate programme on the “Foundations of Global Financial Markets and Financial Stability“. Hosuk Lee-Makiyama is the director of European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE) and a leading author on trade diplomacy, EU-Far East relations and the digital economy. He is regularly consulted by governments and international organisations on a range of issues, from trade negotiations to economic reforms. He appears regularly in European, Chinese and US media, and is noted for his involvement in WTO and major free trade agreements. Erik van der Marel is a Senior Economist at ECIPE. His areas of expertise are in services trade and political economy of services trade policy, Russia’s trading patterns, plus total factor productivity (TFP) and regulation including trade policy in developing countries. Bert Verschelde has a MSc in European Political Economy and graduated with a Master's in Comparative and International Politics, “THE COSTS OF DATA LOCALISATION: FRIENDLY FIRE ON ECONOMIC RECOVERY” http://www.ecipe.org/app/uploads/2014/12/OCC32014__1.pdf, ekr)
Industry and internet advocates have warned against an Internet which is fragmented along national borderlines. Some of them are going as far as calling balkanisation the greatest threat to the Internet today, even greater than censorship.9 One comprehensive study by Chander and Lê (2014) from the California International Law Centre established that data localisation “threatens the major new advances in information technology – not only cloud computing, but also the promise of big data and the Internet of things”.10 It is not unlikely that future trade agreements will include disciplines against data localisation requirements, as there are often less trade-restrictive measures available to address privacy and security. However, the more immediate effect of data localisation measures – the impact on economic recovery and growth – is even more dangerous. As this study has shown, this impact is a direct consequence of the complex relations between cross-border data flows, supply chain fragmentation and domestic prices. These are complexities that are generally not understood by policymakers, who are often in the field of security and privacy law, rather than international trade. The findings regarding the effects on GDP, investments and welfare from data localisation requirements and discriminatory privacy and security laws are too considerable to be ignored in policy design. It is also reasonable to assume that SMEs and new firms are the first to be displaced from the market, as they lack resources to adapt to the regulatory changes. In the current security policy context, many regulators and privacy advocates stress the importance of discretion to tackle problems at a national level (e.g. NetMundial 2014 draft conclusions)11. The economic evidence however proves that unilateral trade restrictions are counterproductive in the context of today’s interdependent globalized economy. The selfincurred losses make data localisation a policy that unilaterally puts the country at a relative loss to others while the possibilities for offsetting the negative impact through trade agreements or economic stimulus are relatively limited over the long term.
Impacts
Ext. Innovation Important
Independently innovation is key to solve multiple scenarios for extinction.
Brent Barker, electrical engineer, and manager of corporate communications for the Electric Power Research Institute and former industrial economist and staff author at SRI International and as a commercial research analyst at USX Corporation, 2000 (“Technology and the Quest for Sustainability,” EPRI Journal, Summer 2000, Vol. 25, p. 8-17)
From a social standpoint, accelerating productivity is not an option but rather an imperative for the future. It is necessary in order to provide the wealth for environmental sustainability, to support an aging population in the industrialized world, and to provide an economic ladder for developing nations. The second area ofopportunity for technology lies in its potential to help stabilize global populationat 10-12 billion sometime in the twenty-first century, possibly as early as 2075. The key is economics. Global communications, from television to movies to the Internet, have brought an image of the comfortable life of the developed world into the homes of the poorest people, firing their own aspirations for a better quality of life, eitherthrough economic development in their own country or through emigration to other countries. If we in the developed world can make thebasic tools ofprosperity--infrastructure, health care, education, and law--more accessible and affordable, recent history suggests that the cultural drivers for producing large families will be tempered, relatively quickly and without coercion.But the task is enormous. The physical prerequisites for prosperity in the global economy are electricity and communications. Today, there are more than 2 billion people living without electricity, or commercial energy in any form, in the very countries where some 5 billion people will be added in the next 50 years. If for no other reason than our enlightened self-interest, we should strive for universal access to electricity, communications, and educational opportunity. We have little choice, because the fate of the developed world is inextricably bound up in the economic and demographic fate of the developing world. A third,related opportunity for technology is in decoupling population growth from land use and, more broadly, decoupling economic growth from natural resource consumption through recycling, end-use efficiency, and industrial ecology. Decoupling population from land use is well under way. According to Grubler, from 1700 to 1850 nearly 2 hectares of land (5 acres) were needed to support every child born in North America, while in the more crowded and cultivated regions of Europe and Asia only 0.5 hectare (1.2 acres) and 0.2 hectare (0.5 acre) were needed, respectively. During the past century, the amount of land needed per additional child has been dropping in all areas of the world, with Europe and North Americaexperiencing the fastest decreases. Bothcrossed the "zero threshold" in the past few decades, meaning that no additional land is needed to support additional children and that land requirements will continue to decreasein the future. One can postulate that the pattern of returning land to nature will continue to spread throughout the world, eventually stemming and then reversing the current onslaught on the great rain forests. Time is critical if vast tracts are to be savedfrom being laid bare, and success will largely depend on how rapidly economic opportunities expand for those now trapped in subsistence and frontier farming. In concept, the potential for returning land to nature is enormous. Futurist and scholar Jesse Ausubel of the Rockefeller University calculates that if farmers could lift average grain yields around the world just to the level of today's average U.S. corn grower, one-half of current global cropland--an area the size of the Amazon basin--could be spared.If agriculture is a leading indicator, then the continuous drive to produce more from less will prevail in other parts of the economy Certainly with shrinking agricultural land requirements, water distribution and use around the world can be greatly altered, since nearly two-thirds of water now goes for irrigation. Overall, the technologies of the future will, in the words of Ausubel, be "cleaner, leaner, lighter, and drier"--that is, more efficient and less wasteful of materials and water. They will be much more tightly integrated through microprocessor-based control and will therefore use human and natural resources much more efficiently and productively. Energy intensity, land intensity, and water intensity (and, to a lesser extent, materials intensity) for both manufacturing and agriculture are already heading downward. Only in agriculture are they falling fast enough to offset the surge in population, but, optimistically, advances in science and technology should accelerate the downward trends in other sectors, helping to decouple economic development from environmental impact in the coming century. One positive sign is the fact that recycling rates in North America are now approaching 65% for steel, lead, and copper and 30% for aluminum and paper. A second sign is that economic output is shifting away from resource-intensive products toward knowledge-based, immaterial goods and services. As a result, although the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) increased 200-fold (in real dollars) in the twentieth century, the physical weight of our annual output remains the same as it was in 1900. If anything, this trend will be accelerating. As Kevin Kelly, the editor of Wired magazine, noted, "The creations most in demand from the United States [as exports] have lost 50% of their physical weight per dollar of value in only six years.... Within a generation, two at most, the number of people working in honest-to-goodness manufacturing jobs will be no more than the number of farmers on the land--less than a few percent. Far more than we realize, the network economy is pulling us all in." Even pollution shows clear signs of being decoupled from population and economic growth. Economist Paul Portney notes that, with the exception of greenhouse gases, "in the OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development] countries, the favorable experience [with pollution control] has been a triumph of technology That is, the ratio of pollution per unit of GDP has fallen fast enough in the developed world to offset the increase in both GDP per capita and the growing number of 'capitas' themselves." The fourth opportunity for science and technology stems from their enormous potential to unlock resources not now available, to reduce human limitations, to create new options for policymakers and businesspeople alike, and to give us new levels of insight into future challenges. Technically resources have little value if we cannot unlock them for practical use. With technology, we are able to bring dormant resources to life. For example, it was only with the development of an electrolytic process late in the nineteenth century that aluminum--the most abundant metal on earth--became commercially available and useful. Chemistry unlocked hydrocarbons. And engineering allowed us to extract and put to diverse use untapped petroleum and gas fields. Over the course of history, technology has made the inaccessible accessible, and resource depletion has been more of a catalyst for change than a longstanding problem. Technology provides us with last-ditch methods (what economists would call substitutions) that allow us to circumvent or leapfrog over crises of our own making. Agricultural technology solved the food crisis of the first half of the nineteenth century. The English "steam crisis" of the 1860s, triggered by the rapid rise of coal-burning steam engines and locomotives, was averted by mechanized mining and the discovery and use of petroleum. The U.S. "timber crisis" that Teddy Roosevelt publicly worried about was circumvented by the use of chemicals that enabled a billion or so railroad ties to last for decades instead of years. The great "manure crisis" of the same era was solved by the automobile, which in a few decades replaced some 25 million horses and freed up 40 million hectares (100 million acres) of farmland, not to mention improving the sanitation and smell of inner cities. Oil discoveries in Texas and then in the Middle East pushed the pending oil crisis of the 1920s into the future. And the energy crisis of the 1970s stimulated the development of new sensing and drilling technology, sparked the advance of non--fossil fuel alternatives, and deepened the penetration of electricity with its fuel flexibility into the global economy Thanks to underground imaging technology, today's known gas resources are an order of magnitude greater than the resources known 20 years ago, and new reserves continue to be discovered. Technology has also greatly extended human limits. It has given each of us a productive capability greater than that of 150 workers in 1800, for example, and has conveniently put the power of hundreds of horses in our garages. In recent decades, it has extended our voice and our reach, allowing us to easily send our words, ideas, images, and money around the world at the speed of light. But global sustainability is not inevitable. In spite of the tremendous promise that technology holds for a sustainable future, there is the potential for all of this to backfire before the job can be done. There are disturbing indications thatpeople sometimes turn in fearand angeron technologies, industries, and institutionsthat openly foster an ever-faster pace of change. The current opposition to nuclear power genetically altered food, the globalization of the economy and the spread of American culture should give us pause. Technology has always presented a two-edged sword, serving as both cause and effect, solving one problem while creating another that was unintended and often unforeseen. We solved the manure crisis, but automotive smog, congestion, and urban sprawl took its place. We cleaned and transformed the cities with all-electric buildings rising thousands of feet into the sky. But while urban pollution was thereby dramatically reduced, a portion of the pollution was shifted to someone else's sky. Breaking limits "Limits to growth" was a popular theme in the 1970s, and a best-selling book of that name predicted dire consequences for the human race by the end of the century. In fact, we have done much better than those predictions, largely because of a factor the book missed--the potential of new technology to break limits. Repeatedly, human societies have approached seemingly insurmountable barriers only to find the means and tools to break through. This ability has now become a source of optimism, an article of faith, in many parts of the world. Today's perceived limits, however, look and feel different. They are global in nature, multicultural, and larger in scale and complexity than ever before. Nearly 2 billion people in the world are without adequate sanitation, and nearly as many are without access to clean drinking water. AIDS is spreading rapidly in the regions of the world least able to fight it. Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases aremore than 30% greater than preindustrial levels and are climbing steadily. Petroleum reserves, expected to be tapped by over a billion automobiles worldwide by 2015, may last only another 50-100 years. And without careful preservation efforts, the biodiversity of the planet could become as threatened in this coming century as it was at the end of the last ice age, when more than 70% of the species of large mammals and other vertebrates in North America disappeared (along with 29% in Europe and 86% in Australia). All these perceived limits require innovation of a scope and intensity surpassing humankind's current commitment.The list of real-world problems that could thwart global sustainability is long and sobering. It includes war, disease, famine, political and religious turmoil, despotism, entrenched poverty, illiteracy, resource depletion, and environmental degradation. Technology can help resolve some of these issues--poverty and disease, resource depletion, and environmental impact, for example--but it offers little recourse for the passions and politics that divide the world. The likelihood is that we will not catch up and overtake the moving target of global sustainability in the coming century, but given the prospects for technology, which have never been brighter, we may come surprisingly close. We should put our technology to work, striving to lift more than 5 billion people out of poverty while preventing irreversible damage to the biosphere and irreversible loss of the earth's natural resources.
Ext. Zoonautic Diseases Bad
New zoonotic diseases cause extinction – different from past diseases
Quammen, award-winning science writer, long-time columnist for Outside magazine, writer for National Geographic, Harper's, Rolling Stone, the New York Times Book Review and others, 9/29/2012(David, “Could the next big animal-to-human disease wipe us out?,” The Guardian, pg. 29, Lexis)
Infectious disease is all around us. It's one of the basic processes that ecologists study, along with predation and competition. Predators are big beasts that eat their prey from outside. Pathogens (disease-causing agents, such as viruses) are small beasts that eat their prey from within. Although infectious disease can seem grisly and dreadful, under ordinary conditions, it's every bit as natural as what lions do to wildebeests and zebras. But conditions aren't always ordinary. Just as predators have their accustomed prey, so do pathogens. And just as a lion might occasionally depart from its normal behaviour - to kill a cow instead of a wildebeest, or a human instead of a zebra - so a pathogen can shift to a new target. Aberrations occur. When a pathogen leaps from an animal into a person, and succeeds in establishing itself as an infectious presence, sometimes causing illness or death, the result is a zoonosis. It's a mildly technical term, zoonosis, unfamiliar to most people, but it helps clarify the biological complexities behind the ominous headlines about swine flu, bird flu, Sars, emerging diseases in general, and the threat of a global pandemic. It'sa word of the future, destined for heavy use in the 21st century. Ebola and Marburg are zoonoses. So is bubonic plague. So was the so-called Spanish influenza of 1918-1919, which had its source in a wild aquatic bird and emerged to kill as many as 50 million people. All of the human influenzas are zoonoses. As are monkeypox, bovine tuberculosis, Lyme disease, West Nile fever, rabies and a strange new affliction called Nipah encephalitis, which has killed pigs and pig farmers in Malaysia. Each of these zoonoses reflects the action of a pathogen that can "spillover", crossing into people from other animals. Aids is a disease of zoonotic origin caused by a virus that, having reached humans through a few accidental events in western and central Africa, now passes human-to-human. This form of interspecies leap is not rare; about 60% of all human infectious diseases currently known either cross routinely or have recently crossed between other animals and us. Some of those - notably rabies - are familiar, widespread and still horrendously lethal, killing humans by the thousands despite centuries of efforts at coping with their effects. Others are new and inexplicably sporadic, claiming a few victims or a few hundred, and then disappearing for years. Zoonotic pathogens can hide. The least conspicuous strategy is to lurk within what's called a reservoir host: a living organism that carries the pathogen while suffering little or no illness. When a disease seems to disappear between outbreaks, it's often still lingering nearby, within some reservoir host. A rodent? A bird? A butterfly? A bat? To reside undetected is probably easiest wherever biological diversity is high and the ecosystem is relatively undisturbed. The converse is also true: ecological disturbance causes diseases to emerge. Shake a tree and things fall out. Michelle Barnes is an energetic, late 40s-ish woman, an avid rock climber and cyclist. Her auburn hair, she told me cheerily, came from a bottle. It approximates the original colour, but the original is gone. In 2008, her hair started falling out; the rest went grey "pretty much overnight". This was among the lesser effects of a mystery illness that had nearly killed her during January that year, just after she'd returned from Uganda. Her story paralleled the one Jaap Taal had told me about Astrid, with several key differences - the main one being that Michelle Barnes was still alive. Michelle and her husband, Rick Taylor, had wanted to see mountain gorillas, too. Their guide had taken them through Maramagambo Forest and into Python Cave. They, too, had to clamber across those slippery boulders. As a rock climber, Barnes said, she tends to be very conscious of where she places her hands. No, she didn't touch any guano. No, she was not bumped by a bat. By late afternoon they were back, watching the sunset. It was Christmas evening 2007. They arrived home on New Year's Day. On 4 January, Barnes woke up feeling as if someone had driven a needle into her skull. She was achy all over, feverish. "And then, as the day went on, I started developing a rash across my stomach." The rash spread. "Over the next 48 hours, I just went down really fast." By the time Barnes turned up at a hospital in suburban Denver, she was dehydrated; her white blood count was imperceptible; her kidneys and liver had begun shutting down. An infectious disease specialist, Dr Norman K Fujita, arranged for her to be tested for a range of infections that might be contracted in Africa. All came back negative, including the test for Marburg. Gradually her body regained strength and her organs began to recover. After 12 days, she left hospital, still weak and anaemic, still undiagnosed. In March she saw Fujita on a follow-up visit and he had her serum tested again for Marburg. Again, negative. Three more months passed, and Barnes, now grey-haired, lacking her old energy, suffering abdominal pain, unable to focus, got an email from a journalist she and Taylor had met on the Uganda trip, who had just seen a news article. In the Netherlands, a woman had died of Marburg after a Ugandan holiday during which she had visited a cave full of bats. Barnes spent the next 24 hours Googling every article on the case she could find. Early the following Monday morning, she was back at Dr Fujita's door. He agreed to test her a third time for Marburg. This time a lab technician crosschecked the third sample, and then the first sample. The new results went to Fujita, who called Barnes: "You're now an honorary infectious disease doctor. You've self-diagnosed, and the Marburg test came back positive." The Marburg virus had reappeared in Uganda in 2007. It was a small outbreak, affecting four miners, one of whom died, working at a site called Kitaka Cave. But Joosten's death, and Barnes's diagnosis, implied a change in the potential scope of the situation. That local Ugandans were dying of Marburg was a severe concern - sufficient to bring a response team of scientists in haste. But if tourists, too, were involved, tripping in and out of some python-infested Marburg repository, unprotected, and then boarding their return flights to other continents, the place was not just a peril for Ugandan miners and their families. It was also an international threat. The first team of scientists had collected about 800 bats from Kitaka Cave for dissecting and sampling, and marked and released more than 1,000, using beaded collars coded with a number. That team, including scientist Brian Amman, had found live Marburg virus in five bats. Entering Python Cave after Joosten's death, another team of scientists, again including Amman, came across one of the beaded collars they had placed on captured bats three months earlier and 30 miles away. "It confirmed my suspicions that these bats are moving," Amman said - and moving not only through the forest but from one roosting site to another. Travel of individual bats between far-flung roosts implied circumstances whereby Marburg virus might ultimately be transmitted all across Africa, from one bat encampment to another. It voided the comforting assumption that this virus is strictly localised. And it highlighted the complementary question: why don't outbreaks of Marburg virus disease happen more often? Marburg is only one instance to which that question applies. Why not more Ebola? Why not more Sars? In the case of Sars, the scenario could have been very much worse. Apart from the 2003 outbreak and the aftershock cases in early 2004, it hasn't recurred. . . so far. Eight thousand cases are relatively few for such an explosive infection; 774 people died, not 7 million. Several factors contributed to limiting the scope and impact of the outbreak, of which humanity's good luck was only one. Another was the speed and excellence of the laboratory diagnostics - finding the virus and identifying it. Still another was the brisk efficiency with which cases were isolated, contacts were traced and quarantine measures were instituted, first in southern China, then in Hong Kong, Singapore, Hanoi and Toronto. If the virus had arrived in a different sort of big city - more loosely governed, full of poor people, lacking first-rate medical institutions - it might have burned through a much larger segment of humanity. One further factor, possibly the most crucial, was inherent in the way Sars affects the human body: symptoms tend to appear in a person before, rather than after, that person becomes highly infectious. That allowed many Sars cases to be recognised, hospitalised and placed in isolation before they hit their peak of infectivity. With influenza and many other diseases, the order is reversed. That probably helped account for the scale of worldwide misery and death during the 1918-1919 influenza. And that infamous global pandemic occurred in the era before globalisation. Everything nowadays moves around the planet faster, including viruses. When the Next Big One comes, it will likely conform to the same perverse pattern as the 1918 influenza: high infectivity preceding notable symptoms. That will help it move through cities and airports like an angel of death. The Next Big One is a subject that disease scientists around the world often address. The most recent big one is Aids, of which the eventual total bigness cannot even be predicted - about 30 million deaths, 34 million living people infected, and with no end in sight. Fortunately, not every virus goes airborne from one host to another. If HIV-1 could, you and I might already be dead. If the rabies virus could, it would be the most horrific pathogen on the planet. The influenzas are well adapted for airborne transmission, which is why a new strain can circle the world within days. The Sars virus travels this route, too, or anyway by the respiratory droplets of sneezes and coughs - hanging in the air of a hotel corridor, moving through the cabin of an aeroplane - and that capacity, combined with its case fatality rate of almost 10%, is what made it so scary in 2003 to the people who understood it best. Human-to-human transmission is the crux. That capacity is what separates a bizarre, awful, localised, intermittent and mysterious disease (such as Ebola) from a global pandemic. Have you noticed the persistent, low-level buzz about avian influenza, the strain known as H5N1, among disease experts over the past 15 years? That's because avian flu worries them deeply, though it hasn't caused many human fatalities. Swine flu comes and goes periodically in the human population (as it came and went during 2009), sometimes causing a bad pandemic and sometimes (as in 2009) not so bad as expected; but avian flu resides in a different category of menacing possibility. It worries the flu scientists because they know that H5N1 influenza is extremely virulent in people, with a high lethality. As yet, there have been a relatively low number of cases, and it is poorly transmissible, so far, from human to human. It'll kill you if you catch it, very likely, but you're unlikely to catch it except by butchering an infected chicken. But if H5N1 mutates or reassembles itself in just the right way, if it adapts for human-to-human transmission, it could become the biggest and fastest killer disease since 1918. It got to Egypt in 2006 and has been especially problematic for that country. As of August 2011, there were 151 confirmed cases, of which 52 were fatal. That represents more than a quarter of all the world's known human cases of bird flu since H5N1 emerged in 1997. But here's a critical fact: those unfortunate Egyptian patients all seem to have acquired the virus directly from birds. This indicates that the virus hasn't yet found an efficient way to pass from one person to another. Two aspects of the situation are dangerous, according to biologist Robert Webster. The first is that Egypt, given its recent political upheavals, may be unable to staunch an outbreak of transmissible avian flu, if one occurs. His second concern is shared by influenza researchers and public health officials around the globe: with all that mutating, with all that contact between people and their infected birds, the virus could hit upon a genetic configuration making it highly transmissible among people. "As long as H5N1 is out there in the world," Webster told me, "there is the possibility of disaster. . . There is the theoretical possibility that it can acquire the ability to transmit human-to-human." He paused. "And then God help us." We're unique in the history of mammals. No other primate has ever weighed upon the planet to anything like the degree we do. In ecological terms, we are almost paradoxical: large-bodied and long-lived but grotesquely abundant. We are an outbreak. And here's the thing about outbreaks: they end. In some cases they end after many years, in others they end rather soon. In some cases they end gradually, in others they end with a crash. In certain cases, they end and recur and end again. Populations of tent caterpillars, for example, seem to rise steeply and fall sharply on a cycle of anywhere from five to 11 years. The crash endings are dramatic, and for a long while they seemed mysterious. What could account for such sudden and recurrent collapses? One possible factor is infectious disease, and viruses in particular.
Ebola Addon
Breakdown of Internet in developing countries means we can’t solve Ebola---telemedicine key
Hulsroj, 14(8/31, Director, European Space Policy Institute, We have tools to treat Ebola from afar, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/82cabc14-2ed7-11e4-afe4-00144feabdc0.html)
Sir, When disaster strikes, the time-honoured way for people of goodwill is to spend money with humanitarian aid organisations. With Ebola there is certainly ample room for this. It is a disgrace that medical staff putting their lives on the line in order to help have to make do with inadequate protective gear and that the whole anti-Ebola effort is undersupplied. There are, of course, those who take their humanitarian commitment beyond the spending – doctors and nurses who go to the region with organisations such as Médecins Sans Frontières, and those within the medical institutions of the stricken countries who do not blink in the face of the utmost danger.Those directly involved with the diagnosis and treatment of the illness have taken a heavy hit, with more than 120 medical staff dead and double that infected. We owe those men and women of courage our utmost support. Because the fact is that, to a large extent, there is no substitute for their physical presence to diagnose, to treat, to clean and to bury the dead. Still, there is a question about whether an element of support in terms of diagnosis, supervision and treatmenteducation could be done from abroad in a situation where doctors are in such desperately short supply on the ground. Telemedicine, via satellite or the internet, allows diagnosis andmedical advice to be given from afar, as long as proper testing and administration of medication can be done in situ. Medical advice via a telemedicine link is not a deus ex machina, but can to some small extent stock up available medical expertise, particularly where the evaluation of test results is difficult or where the alternative is no diagnosis at all.Humanitarian aid organisations know how to do this, and surely there would be a great readiness by medical professionals to volunteer their time and expertise if they would be given a way to do so from afar, without having to completely abandon their regular professional life. Telemedicine could put tools in their hands to do so by, for instance, creating Ebolatelemedicine hubs in metropolitan cities in the west, and by creating internet networks of medicalprofessionalswho can evaluate test results and supervise treatment regimes.This is a time for the global community to come together and assist in the best possible way the stricken and those who help the stricken. We must mobilise all possible resources, financial and medical, to fight this current day plague. And no, we should not invest in more costly systems, such as telemedicine, before the basic needs of medical staff on the ground are satisfied, such as proper protective gear. But as we sharpen our focus on what can and should be done, the possibility to help from afar by the use of telemedicine tools should not be forgotten.
Fragmentation risks global pandemic spread
Mckenna, 13(Columnist-Wired, 8/21, Censorship Doesn’t Just Stifle Speech — It Can Spread Disease, http://www.wired.com/2013/08/ap_mers/all/1)
In October, Saudi Arabia will host millions of travelers on the hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Islam’s holy sites. The hajj carries deep meaning for those observant Muslims who undertake it, but it also carries risks that make epidemiologists blanch. Pilgrims sleep in shared tents and approach the crowded sites on foot, in debilitating heat. They come from all over the world, and whatever pathogens they encounter on the hajj will travel back with them to their home countries. In past seasons, the hajj has been shown to foster disease, from stomach flus to tuberculosis or meningitis. The Saudi Arabian government has traditionally taken this threat quite seriously. Each year it builds a vast network of field hospitals to give aid to pilgrims. It refuses visas to travelers who have not had required vaccinations and makes public the outbreaks it learns about. This year, though, the Saudis have been strangely opaque about one particular risk—and it’s a risk that has disease experts and public-health agencies looking to October with a great deal of concern. They wonder if this year’s hajj might actually breed the next pandemic. The reason is MERS: Middle East respiratory syndrome, a disease that has been simmering in the region for months. The virus is new, recorded in humans for the first time in mid-2012. It is dire, having killed more than half of those who contracted it. And it is mysterious, far more so than it should be—because Saudi Arabia, where the majority of cases have clustered, has been tight-lipped about the disease’s spread, responding slowly to requests for information and preventing outside researchers from publishing their findings about the syndrome. Even in the Internet age, when data sources like Twitter posts and Google search queries are supposed to tip us off to outbreaks as they happen, one restrictive government can still put the whole world in danger by clamming up.That’s because the most important factor in controlling epidemics isn’t the quality of our medicine. It’s the quality of our information.The Wall of Silence To understand why MERS is so troubling, look back to the beginning of 2003. For several months, public-health observers heard rumors of a serious respiratory illness in southern China. But when officials from the World Health Organization asked the Chinese government about it, they were told that the countryside was simply experiencing an outbreak of pneumonia. The wall of silence around what came to be known as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) cracked only by chance. An anonymous man in a chat room, describing himself as a teacher in Guangdong Province, made the acquaintance of a teacher in California. On February 9, 2003, he asked her if she had heard of the illness ravaging his city. She forwarded his message to an epidemiologist she knew, and on February 10 he posted it to ProMED, a listserv that disease experts use as an informal surveillance system. That email was the world’s only warning for what was to come. By mid-March there were already 150 cases of the new disease in seven countries. SARS wound up sickening more than 8,000 people and killing almost 800 in just nine months. Luckily, the disease was quelled in China and Canada (where travelers from Hong Kong touched off an outbreak in Toronto) before it had a chance to evolve into a more efficiently spreading strain. Many experts believe that given time to mutate in humans, SARS might have become a deadly pandemic.EVEN IN THE INTERNET AGE … ONE RESTRICTIVE GOVERNMENT CAN PUT THE WORLD AT RISK.With more warning, SARS might not even have gained a foothold outside of China. In Canada the virus quickly infected 251 people, killing 43. By contrast, the US had time to write new quarantine regulations, which made a difference: America had just 27 SARS cases, with no deaths and no hospital spread.To health authorities who lived through SARS, MERS feels unnervingly familiar. The two organisms are cousins: Both are coronaviruses, named for their crown-shaped profile visible with an electron microscope. For this disease too, the first notice was a posting to ProMED—this time by a doctor working in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, describing a patient who had died several months before. That September 2012 communiquè, which cost the doctor his job, helped physicians in London realize that a Qatari man they were treating was part of the same outbreak. From there, MERS unspooled. People also fell ill in the United Arab Emirates, France, Germany, Italy, and Tunisia. But Saudi Arabia, home to the vast majority of confirmed cases, remained far from forthcoming about what it knew. Announcements from the Ministry of Health supplied little useful detail and discussed illnesses and deaths that happened some indeterminate time in the past—possibly days, possibly even weeks. So far the number of MERS cases is just a fraction of the toll from SARS, but health officials fear that the real count could be higher. Especially worrisome is the death rate among the afflicted: While SARS has been estimated to kill roughly 10 percent of its victims, MERS so far has killed 56 percent. No One Thought It Would Happen Again Certainly censorship about the spread of disease is nothing new. The largest well-documented pandemic, the great flu of 1918, is called the Spanish Influenza in old accounts not because it started in Spain (it may have begun in Kansas) but because Spain, as a neutral nation during World War I, had no wartime curbs on news reports of deaths. To this day, no one is sure how many people died in the 1918 flu; the best guess hovers around 50 million worldwide. Regardless, since the virus took 11 months to circle the planet, some of those millions might have lived had the later-infected countries been warned to prepare. After SARS, no one thought that it would happen again. In 2005 the 194 nations that vote in WHO‘s governing body promised not to conceal outbreaks. And beyond that promise, public-health researchers have believed that Internet chatter—patterns of online discussion about disease—would undercut any attempts at secrecy. But they’ve been disappointed to see that their web-scraping tools have picked up remarkably little from the Middle East: While Saudi residents certainly use the Internet, what they can access is stifled, and what they are willing to say appears muted. Nearly 100 years after the great flu, it turns out that old-fashioned censorship can still stymie the world in its ability toprepare for a pandemic.So what now? The behind-door seething may be having an effect. A WHO team was finally allowed into Saudi Arabia in June, and the Saudi government has announced limits on the number of visas it will issue for this year’s hajj. Meanwhile, governments and transnational health agencies have already taken the steps that they can, warning hospitals and readying labs. With luck, the disease will stay contained: In July, WHO declined to elevate MERS to a “public health emergency of international concern. But the organization warned it might change its mind later—and if it does, we should fear the worst, because our medical resources are few. At present there is no rapid-detection method, no vaccine, and no cure. While we wait to see the full extent of MERS, the one thing the world can do is to relearn the lesson of SARS: Just as diseases will always cross borders, governments will always try to evade blame. That problem can’t be solved with better devices or through a more sophisticated public-health dragnet.The solution lies in something public health has failed to accomplish despite centuries of trying: persuading governments that transparency needs to trump concerns about their own reputations. Information can outrun our deadly new diseases, but only if it’s allowed to spread.
Extinction
Jordan Pearson, motherboard writer, citing a WHO study, ’14(“This Mathematical Model from 2006 Shows How Ebola Could Wipe Us Out,” 9/4, http://motherboard.vice.com/read/a-2006-mathematical-model-shows-how-ebola-could-wipe-us-out)
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa is the worst in history, and the death toll just surpassed 1,900. Previous WHO estimates indicated that the outbreak would end mid-fall, but the situation is quickly spiraling out of control and into a sea of unknowns. The “Ebola epidemic is the largest, and most severe, and most complex we have ever seen in the nearly 40-year history of this disease,” World Health Organization director general Margaret Chan said in a special briefing yesterday. “No one, even outbreak responders, [has] ever seen anything like it.” Yaneer Bar-Yam, the complex systems analyst whose model accurately predicted the global unrest that led to the Arab Spring, is also worried about the patterns he sees in the disease's advance. Models hedesigned for the New England Complex Systems Institute back in 2006 show that Ebola could rapidly spread, and, in a worse case scenario, even cause an extinction event, if enough infected people make it through an international airport. “What happened was that we were modelling the dynamics of the evolution of diseases—of pathogens—and we showed that if you just add a very small amount of long-range transportation, the diseases escape their local context and eventually drive everything to extinction,” Bar-Yam told Motherboard. “They drive their hosts to extinction.” Bar-Yam says he has informed the WHO and the CDC of his findings, but they haven’t listened, he said. “I just gave a lecture to the World Health Organization in January and I told them. I said, there’s this transition to extinction and we don’t know when it’s going to happen,” Bar-Yam explained. “But I don’t think that there has been a sufficient response.” Normally, the spread of a predator—and this is as true for Ebola as it is for invasive animal species—is stymied when it overexploits its prey, effectively drying up its own food source. In rural areas like those where the current Ebola outbreak is centered, diseases tend to contain themselves by wiping out all available hosts in a concentrated area. If a particularly aggressive predator happens to make it out of its local context, say, on an international flight, Bar-Yam’s models show that it can avoid local extinction through long-range dispersal. At this point, the linear model of the disease's outbreak makes a statistical transition into an entirely different dynamic; extinction for all of its hosts across vast geographic distances, and only afterwards for the disease. The argument has been made that an Ebola outbreak would not be as severe in the West as it is in Africa, because the poor healthcare infrastructure where the disease has struck is the chief vector of its spread. Bar-Yam sees this assumption as a vast overestimation of our handle on the dynamics of disease containment. THE QUESTION BECOMES, AT WHAT POINT DO WE HIT THE PANIC BUTTON? WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE TO HIT THE PANIC BUTTON? “The behavior of an individual in a major metropolitan area in terms of engaging with the health care system depends on a lot of different factors,” Bar-Yam explained. “A reasonable person might be have in one way, but another person will behave in another. We don’t know what happens if someone with Ebola throws up in a subway before that gets cleaned up and people understand that happened because of Ebola.” Panic is never a wise thing to incite, because it can result in exactly the kinds of unpredictable behavior that Bar-Yam is warning us about. However, a healthy amount of fear is a different matter.
Small Businesses Addon
Cloud computing key to adapt small businesses to server needs.
Nguyen, 2011 (Hien Timothy M., Candidate for Juris Doctor, Notre Dame Law School, 2012, “CLOUD COVER: PRIVACY PROTECTIONS AND THE STORED COMMUNICATIONS ACT IN THE AGE OF CLOUD COMPUTING” Notre Dame Law Review Lexis)
In the corporate environment, cloud computing also provides many benefits. Cloud computing provides scalability, which can be especially beneficial to emerging companies. Rather than being forced to invest in equipment,90 software, and personnel to maintain the systems, companies can purchase computing power and storage space from a cloud provider.91 Cloud computing provides for flexible “usage-based pricing,”92 because the “hours” purchased through cloud computing “can be distributed non-uniformly in time (e.g., use 100 server-hours today and no server-hours tomorrow”93 and the company will only have to pay for the hours it uses.94 In the event of a business slowdown, where a company needs to scale down its resource usage, cloud computing might reduce or even eliminate the financial loss of having under-utilized equipment.95 If a business needs to scale up its resource usage, cloud computing allows it to add resources quickly, with very short lead-time of minutes or hours (instead of days or weeks to procure the physical equipment), which allows the matching of resources to workload much more closely.96 For example, an Internet retailer might be extremely busy during the holidays, but far less busy during the rest of the year. Cloud computing allows for the retailer to purchase additional resources during the holiday season to accommodate the rush of traffic, without having to purchase and maintain underutilized systems during the rest of the year.97 This prevents wasted resources during the rest of the year, and reduces the risk of accidentally turning away customers during a spike in sales.98 Finally, businesses might save because the cloud provider can pass on some of the savings they get from their economy-of-scale buying power for computing hardware and software.99 Yet, there are many privacy implications that come along with the vast benefits of cloud computing.Having data on the servers of a cloud service provider instead of your own means that if the provider’s servers are compromised, then your data could potentially also be compromised.100 A cloud service provider might retain the right to disclose information to another party.101 The “terms of service” of cloud providers might also vary from provider to provider, leading users to potentially rely on privacy protections that may exist with one provider, but not another. The growing trend towards cloud computing usage means that more and more people will be storing their data on remote servers (which will likely be outside Fourth Amendment protections, as currently understood).
Small Business is the backbone of the economy.
Hecht 12/17/2014 (Jared, CEO and Co-founder, Fundera, “Are Small Businesses Really the Backbone of the Economy?” INC http://www.inc.com/jared-hecht/are-small-businesses-really-the-backbone-of-the-economy.html)
In a conversation about the value of small business for the U.S. economy, we can't leave out this truth--all businesses start small. All of the 18,500 businesses in the United States with 500 or more employees once began as a part of the small business sector. Apple started in Steve Jobs's garage. Facebook got its start in Mark Zuckerberg's dorm room. Home-based, non-employing small businesses become small employers, which in turn become big businesses. So, in a way, one could argue that the American small business economy is the American economy. It's where the U.S. economy begins. As a caveat, let's keep in mind that the majority of these numbers come from the 2010 Census, or from the Office of Economic Research's 2012 study--which are considered the most accurate numbers reflecting the state of jobs and business in the country. Being that we're coming up on 2015, it's likely that these numbers have undergone some adjustment since then. However, the Small Business Administration indicates that America's small business economy is growing along with the rest of the recession recovery. Although small businesses may be growing at a slower pace due to lending challenges, that disparity has not been enough to tip the scales. Facts are still facts, and small businesses are still the backbone of the U.S. Economy.
Economic decline triggers lash-out and global war---no checks
Harold James 14, Professor of history at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School who specializes in European economic history, 7/2/14, “Debate: Is 2014, like 1914, a prelude to world war?,” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/read-and-vote-is-2014-like-1914-a-prelude-to-world-war/article19325504/
As we get closer to the centenary of Gavrilo Princip’s act of terrorism in Sarajevo, there is an ever more vivid fear: it could happen again. The approach of the hundredth anniversary of 1914 has put aspotlight on the fragility of the world’s political and economic security systems. At the beginning of 2013, Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker was widely ridiculed for evoking the shades of 1913. By now he is looking like a prophet. By 2014, as the security situation in the South China Sea deteriorated, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cast China as the equivalent to Kaiser Wilhelm’s Germany; and the fighting in Ukraine and in Iraq is a sharp reminder of the dangers of escalation. Lessons of 1914 are about more than simply the dangers of national and sectarian animosities. The main story of today as then is theprecariousness of financial globalization, and the consequences that political leaders draw from it. In the influential view of Norman Angell in his 1910 book The Great Illusion, the interdependency of the increasingly complex global economy made war impossible. Buta quite opposite conclusion was possible and equally plausible – andproved to be the case. Given the extent of fragility, a clever twist to the control levers might make war easily winnable by the economic hegemon. In the wake of anepochal financial crisis that almost brought a complete global collapse,in 1907, several countries started to think of finance as primarily an instrument of raw power, one that could and should be turned to national advantage. The 1907 panic emanated from the United States but affected the rest of the world and demonstrated the fragility of the whole international financial order. The aftermath of the 1907 crash drove the then hegemonic power – Great Britain - to reflect on how it could use its financial power. Between 1905 and 1908, the British Admiralty evolved the broad outlines of a plan for financial and economic warfare that would wreck the financial system of its major European rival, Germany, and destroy its fighting capacity. Britain used its extensive networks to gather information about opponents. London banks financed most of the world’s trade. Lloyds provided insurance for the shipping not just of Britain, but of the world. Financial networks provided the information that allowed the British government to find the sensitive strategic vulnerabilities of the opposing alliance. What pre-1914 Britain did anticipated the private-public partnership that today links technology giants such as Google, Apple or Verizon to U.S. intelligence gathering. Since last year, the Edward Snowden leaks about the NSA have shed a light on the way that global networks are used as a source of intelligence and power. For Britain’s rivals, the financial panic of 1907 showed the necessity of mobilizing financial powers themselves. The United States realized that it needed a central bank analogous to the Bank of England. American financiers thought that New York needed to develop its own commercial trading system that could handle bills of exchange in the same way as the London market. Some of the dynamics of the pre-1914 financial world are now re-emerging. Then an economically declining power, Britain, wanted to use finance as a weapon against its larger and faster growing competitors, Germany and the United States. Now America is in turn obsessed by being overtaken by China – according to some calculations, set to become the world’s largest economy in 2014. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, financial institutions appear both as dangerous weapons of mass destruction, but also as potential instruments for the application of national power. In managing the 2008 crisis, the dependence of foreign banks on U.S. dollar funding constituted a major weakness, and required the provision of large swap lines by the Federal Reserve. The United States provided that support to some countries, but not others, on the basis of an explicitly political logic, as Eswar Prasad demonstrates in his new book on the “Dollar Trap.” Geo-politics is intruding into banking practice elsewhere. Before the Ukraine crisis, Russian banks were trying to acquire assets in Central and Eastern Europe. European and U.S. banks are playing a much reduced role in Asian trade finance. Chinese banks are being pushed to expand their role in global commerce. After the financial crisis, China started to build up the renminbi as a major international currency. Russia and China have just proposed to create a new credit rating agency to avoid what they regard as the political bias of the existing (American-based) agencies. The next stage in this logic is to think about how financial power can be directed to national advantage in the case of a diplomatic tussle. Sanctions are a routine (and not terribly successful) part of the pressure applied to rogue states such as Iran and North Korea. But financial pressure can be much more powerfully applied to countries that are deeply embedded in the world economy. The test is in the Western imposition of sanctions after the Russian annexation of Crimea. President Vladimir Putin’s calculation in response is that the European Union and the United States cannot possibly be serious about the financial war. It would turn into a boomerang: Russia would be less affected than the more developed and complex financial markets of Europe and America. The threat ofsystemic disruptiongenerates a new sort of uncertainty, one that mirrors the decisive feature of the crisis of the summer of 1914. At that time, no one could really know whether clashes would escalate or not. That feature contrasts remarkably with almost the entirety of the Cold War, especially since the 1960s, when the strategic doctrine of Mutually Assured Destructionleft no doubt that any superpower conflict would inevitably escalate. The idea of network disruption relies on the ability to achieve advantage by surprise, and to win at no or low cost. But it is inevitably a gamble, and raises prospect that others might, but also might not be able to, mount the same sort of operation. Just as in 1914, there is an enhanced temptation to roll the dice, even though the game may be fatal.
Warming Addon
Cloud computing key to climate modeling
Boyce, 10 (Eric, technical writer and user advocate for The Rackspace Cloud, September 14, 2010 http://www.rackspacecloud.com/blog/2010/09/14/the-future-of-cloud-computing-the-big-25-in-the-next-25/)
The promise of the cloud isn’t just about gaming and the ability to safely store all those photos that you wish you hadn’t ever taken. Many of the most promising cloud-based applications also require massive computational power. Searching a database of global DNA samples requires abundant, scalable processing power. Modeling protein folding is another example of how compute resources will be used. Protein folding is linked to many diseases including Alzheimer’s and cancer, and analyzing the folding process can lead to new treatments and cures, but it requires enormous compute power. Projects like Folding@home are using distributed computing to tackle these modeling tasks. The cloud will offer a larger, faster, more scalable way to process data and thus benefit any heavy data manipulation task. 6. Is it going to be hot tomorrow? Like protein folding modeling, climate simulation and forecasting requires a large amount of data storage and processing. Recently the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) installed a climate calculating supercomputer that is capable of analyzing 60 petabytes of data (roughly 13 million DVD’s) at over 158 teraflops (trillion calculations per second). In the next couple of decades, this level of computing power will be widely available and will exist on remote hardware. Sophisticated climate models combined with never before seen compute power will provide better predictions of climate change and more rapid early warning systems
Key to warming adaptation
Pope, 10(Vicky Pope is the head of climate science advice at the Met Office Hadley Centre, “ How science will shape climate adaptation plans,” 16 September 2010, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2010/sep/16/science-climate-change-adaptation)
Some would argue that the demand for information on how climate change will affect our future outstrips the current capability of the science and climate models. My view is that as scientists, we can provide useful information, but we need to be clear about its limitations and strive to improve informationfor the future. We need to be clear about the uncertainties in our projections while still extracting useful information for practical decision-making. I have been involved in developing climate models for the last 15 years and despite their limitations we are now able to assess the probability of different outcomes for the first time. That means we can quantify the risk of these outcomes happening. These projections – the UK climate projections published in 2009 - are already forming the backbone of adaptation decisions being made in the UK for 50 to 100 years ahead. A project commissioned by the Environment Agency to investigate the impact of climate change on the Thames estuary over the next 100 years concluded that current government predictions for sea level rise are realistic. A major outcome from the scientific analysis was that the worst-case scenarios for high water levels can be significantly reduced - from 4.2m to 2.7m – because we are able to rule out the more extreme sea level rise. As a result, massive investment in a tide-excluding estuary barrage is unlikely to be needed this century. This will be reviewed as more information becomes available, taking a flexible approach to adaptation. The energy industry, working with the Met Office, looked at the likely impact of climate change on its infrastructure. The project found that very few changes in design standards are required, although it did highlight a number of issues. For instance, transformers could suffer higher failure rates and efficiency of some types of thermal power station could be markedly reduced because of increasing temperatures. A particular concern highlighted by this report and reiterated in today's report from the Climate Change Committee - the independent body that advises government on its climate targets - is that little is known about how winds will change in the future - important because of the increasing role of wind power in the UK energy mix. Fortunately many people, from private industry to government, recognise the value of even incomplete information to help make decisions about the future. Demand for climate information is increasing, particularly relating to changes in the short to medium term. More still needs to be done to refine the climate projections and make them more usable and accessible. This is especially true if we are to provide reliable projections for the next 10 to 30 years. The necessary science and modelling tools are being developed, and the first tentative results are being produced. We need particularly to look at how we communicate complex and often conflicting results. In order to explain complex science to a lay audience, scientists and journalists are prone to progressively downplay the complexity. Conversely, in striving to adopt a more scientific approach and include the full range of uncertainty, we often give sceptics an easy route to undermine the science. All too often uncertainty in science offers a convenient excuse for delaying important decisions. However, in the case of climate change there is overwhelming evidence that the climate is changing — in part due to human activities — and that changes will accelerate if emissions continue unabated. In examining the uncertainty in the science we must take care to not throw away what we do know. Science has established that climate is changing. Scientists now need to press on in developing the emerging tools that will be used to underpin sensible adaptation decisions which will determine our future.
Warming is inevitable–only adaptation can prevent extinction
Romero, 8(purple, reporter for ABS-CBN news, 05/17/2008, Climate change and human extinction--are you ready to be fossilized? http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/05/16/08/climate-change-and-human-extinction-are-you-ready-be-fossilized)
Climate change killed the dinosaurs. Will it kill us as well? Will we let it destroy the human race? This was the grim, depressing message that hung in the background of the Climate Change Forum hosted on Friday by the Philippine National Red Cross at the Manila Hotel. "Not one dinosaur is alive today. Maybe someday it will be our fossils that another race will dig up in the future, " said Roger Bracke of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, underscoring his point that no less than extinction is faced by the human race, unless we are able to address global warming and climate change in this generation. Bracke, however, countered the pessimistic mood of the day by saying that the human race still has an opportunity to save itself. This more hopeful view was also presented by the four other speakers in the forum. Bracke pointed out that all peoples of the world must be involved in two types of response to the threat of climate change: mitigation and adaptation. "Prevention" is no longer possible, according to Bracke and the other experts at the forum, since climate change is already happening. Last chance The forum's speakers all noted the increasing number and intensity of devastating typhoons--most recently cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, which killed more than 100,000 people--as evidence that the world's climatic and weather conditions are turning deadly because of climate change. They also reminded the audience that deadly typhoons have also hit the Philippines recently, particularly Milenyo and Reming, which left hundreds of thousands of Filipino families homeless. World Wildlife Fund Climate and Energy Program head Naderev Saño said that "this generation the last chance for the human race" to do something and ensure that humanity stays alive in this planet. According to Saño, while most members of our generation will be dead by the time the worst effects of climate change are felt, our children will be the ones to suffer. How will Filipinos survive climate change? Well, first of all, they have to be made aware that climate change is a problem that threatens their lives. The easiest way to do this – as former Consultant for the Secretariats of the UN Convention on Climate Change Dr. Pak Sum Low told abs-cbnews.com/Newsbreak – is to particularize the disasters that it could cause. Talking in the language of destruction, Pak and other experts paint this portrait of a Philippines hit by climate change: increased typhoons in Visayas, drought in Mindanao, destroyed agricultural areas in Pampanga, and higher incidence rates of dengue and malaria. Sañom said that as polar ice caps melt due to global warming, sea levels will rise, endangering coastal and low-lying areas like Manila. He said Manila Bay would experience a sea level increase of 72 meters over 20 years. This means that from Pampanga to Nueva Ecija, farms and fishponds would be in danger of being would be inundated in saltwater. Sañom added that Albay, which has been marked as a vulnerable area to typhoons, would be the top province at risk. Sañom also pointed out that extreme weather conditions arising from climate change, including typhoons and severe droughts, would have social, economic and political consequences: Ruined farmlands and fishponds would hamper crop growth and reduce food sources, typhoons would displace people, cause diseases, and limit actions in education and employment. Thus, Saño said, while environmental protection should remain at the top of the agenda in fighting climate change, solutions to the phenomenon "must also be economic, social, moral and political." Mitigation Joyceline Goco, Climate Change Coordinator of the Environment Management Bureau of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, focused her lecture on the programs Philippine government is implementing in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. Goco said that the Philippines is already a signatory to global agreements calling for a reduction in the "greenhouse gasses"--mostly carbon dioxide, chloroflourocarbons and methane--that are responsible for trapping heat inside the planet and raising global temperatures. Goco said the DENR, which is tasked to oversee and activate the Clean Development Mechanism, has registered projects which would reduce methane and carbon dioxide. These projects include landfill and electricity generation initiatives. She also said that the government is also looking at alternative fuel sources in order do reduce the country's dependence on the burning of fossil fuels--oil--which are known culprits behind global warming. Bracke however said that mitigation is not enough. "The ongoing debate about mitigation of climate change effects is highly technical. It involves making fundamental changes in the policies of governments, making costly changes in how industry operates. All of this takes time and, frankly, we're not even sure if such mitigation efforts will be successful. In the meantime, while the debate goes on, the effects of climate change are already happening to us." Adaptation A few nations and communities have already begun adapting their lifestyles to cope with the effects of climate change. In Bangladesh, farmers have switched to raising ducks instead of chickens because the latter easily succumb to weather disturbances and immediate effects, such as floods. In Norway, houses with elevated foundations have been constructed to decrease displacement due to typhoons. In the Philippines main body for fighting climate change, the Presidential Task Force on Climate Change, (PTFCC) headed by Department on Energy Sec. Angelo Reyes, has identified emission reduction measures and has looked into what fuel mix could be both environment and economic friendly. The Department of Health has started work with the World Health Organization in strengthening its surveillance mechanisms for health services. However, bringing information hatched from PTFCC’s studies down to and crafting an action plan for adaptation with the communities in the barangay level remains a challenge. Bracke said that the Red Cross is already at the forefront of efforts to prepare for disasters related to climate change. He pointed out that since the Red Cross was founded in 1919, it has already been helping people beset by natural disasters. "The problems resulting from climate change are not new to the Red Cross. The Red Cross has been facing those challenges for a long time. However, the frequency and magnitude of those problems are unprecedented. This is why the Red Cross can no longer face these problems alone," he said. Using a medieval analogy, Bracke said that the Red Cross can no longer be a "knight in shining armor rescuing a damsel in distress" whenever disaster strikes. He said that disaster preparedness in the face of climate change has to involve people at the grassroots level. "The role of the Red Cross in the era of climate change will be less as a direct actor and increase as a trainor and guide to other partners who will help us adapt to climate change and respond to disasters," said Bracke. PNRC chairman and Senator Richard Gordon gave a picture of how the PNRC plans to take climate change response to the grassroots level, through its project, dubbed "Red Cross 143". Gordon explained how Red Cross 143 will train forty-four volunteers from each community at a barangay level. These volunteers will have training in leading communities in disaster response. Red Cross 143 volunteers will rely on information technology like cellular phones to alert the PNRC about disasters in their localities, mobilize people for evacuation, and lead efforts to get health care, emergency supplies, rescue efforts, etc.
Adaptation solves global wars
Werz and Conley 12 - Senior Fellow @American Progress where his work as member of the National Security Team focuses on the nexus of climate change, migration, and security and emerging democracies & Research Associate for National Security and International Policy @ the Center for American Progress [Michael Werz & Laura Conley, “Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict: Addressing complex crisis scenarios in the 21st Century,” Center for American Progress, January 2012]
The costs and consequences of climate change on our world will define the 21st century. Even if nations across our planet were to take immediate steps to rein in carbon emissions—an unlikely prospect—a warmer climate is inevitable. As the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, noted in 2007, human-created “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.”1 As these ill effects progress they will have serious implications for U.S. national security interests as well as global stability—extending from the sustainability of coastal military installations to the stability of nations that lack the resources, good governance, and resiliency needed to respond to the many adverse consequences of climate change. And as these effects accelerate, the stress will impact human migration and conflict around the world. It is difficult to fully understand the detailed causes of migration and economic and political instability, but the growing evidence of links between climate change, migration, and conflict raise plenty of reasons for concern. This is why it’s time to start thinking about new and comprehensive answers to multifaceted crisis scenarios brought on or worsened by global climate change. As Achim Steiner, executive director of the U.N. Environment Program, argues, “The question we must continuously ask ourselves in the face of scientific complexity and uncertainty, but also growing evidence of climate change, is at what point precaution, common sense or prudent risk management demands action.”2 In the coming decades climate change will increasingly threaten humanity’s shared interests and collective security in many parts of the world, disproportionately affecting the globe’s least developed countries. Climate change will pose challenging social, political, and strategic questions for the many different multinational, regional, national, and nonprofit organizations dedicated to improving the human condition worldwide. Organizations as different as Amnesty International, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the World Bank, the International Rescue Committee, and the World Health Organization will all have to tackle directly the myriad effects of climate change. Climate change also poses distinct challenges to U.S. national security. Recent intelligence reports and war games, including some conducted by the U.S. Department of Defense, conclude that over the next two or three decades,vulnerable regions(particularly sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia) will face the prospect of food shortages, water crises, and catastrophic flooding driven by climate change.These developments could demandU.S.,European, and international humanitarian relief or military responses, often the delivery vehicle for aid in crisis situations. This report provides the foundation and overview for a series of papers focusing on the particular challenges posed by the cumulative effects of climate change, migration, and conflict in some of our world’s most complex environments. In the papers following this report, we plan to outline the effects of this nexus in northwest Africa, in India and Bangladesh, in the Andean region of South America, and in China. In this paper we detail that nexus across our planet and offer wide ranging recommendations about how the United States, its allies in the global community, and the community at large can deal with the coming climate-driven crises with comprehensive sustainable security solutions encompassing national security, diplomacy, and economic, social, and environmental development. Here, we briefly summarize our arguments and our conclusions. The nexus The Arab Spring can be at least partly credited to climate change. Rising food prices and efforts by authoritarian regimes to crush political protests were linked first to food and then to political repression—two important motivators in the Arab makeover this past year. To be sure, longstanding economic and social distress and lack of opportunity for so many Arab youth in the Middle East and across North Africa only needed a spark to ignite revolutions across the region. But environmental degradation and the movement of people from rural areas to already overcrowded cities alongside rising food prices enabled the cumulative effects of long-term economic and political failures to sweep across borders with remarkable agility. It does not require much foresight to acknowledge that other effects of climate change will add to the pressure in the decades to come. In particular the cumulative overlays of climate change with human migration driven by environmental crises, political conflict caused by this migration, and competition for more scarce resources will add new dimensions of complexity to existing and future crisis scenarios. It is thus critical to understand how governments plan to answer and prioritize these new threats from climate change, migration, and conflict. Climate change Climate change alone poses a daunting challenge. No matter what steps the global community takes to mitigate carbon emissions, a warmer climate is inevitable. The effects are already being felt today and will intensify as climate change worsens. All of the world’s regions and nations will experience some of the effects of this transformational challenge. Here’s just one case in point: African states are likely to be the most vulnerable to multiple stresses, with up to 250 million people projected to suffer from water and food insecurity and, in low-lying areas, a rising sea level.3 As little as 1 percent of Africa’s land is located in low-lying coastal zones but this land supports 12 percent of its urban population.4 Furthermore, a majority of people in Africa live in lower altitudes—including the Sahel, the area just south of the Sahara—where the worst effects of water scarcity, hotter temperatures, and longer dry seasons are expected to occur.5 These developments may well be exacerbated by the lack of state and regional capacity to manage the effects of climate change. These same dynamics haunt many nations in Asia and the Americas, too, and the implications for developed countries such as the United States and much of Europe will be profound. Migration Migration adds another layer of complexity to the scenario. In the 21st century the world could see substantial numbers of climate migrants—people displaced by either the slow or sudden onset of the effects of climate change. The United Nations’ recent Human Development Report stated that, worldwide, there are already an estimated 700 million internal migrants—those leaving their homes within their own countries—a number that includes people whose migration isrelated to climate change and environmental factors. Overall migration across national borders is already at approximately 214 million people worldwide,6 with estimates of up to 20 million displaced in 2008 alone because of a rising sea level, desertification, and flooding.7 One expert, Oli Brown of the International Institute for Sustainable Development, predicts a tenfold increase in the current number of internally displaced persons and international refugees by 2050.8 It is important to acknowledge that there is no consensus on this estimate. In fact there is major disagreement among experts about how to identify climate as a causal factor in internal and international migration. But even though the root causes of human mobility are not always easy to decipher, the policy challenges posed by that movement are real. A 2009 report by the International Organization for Migration produced in cooperation with the United Nations University and the Climate Change, Environment and Migration Alliance cites numbers that range from “200 million to 1 billion migrants from climate change alone, by 2050,”9 arguing that “environmental drivers of migration are often coupled with economic, social and developmental factors that can accelerate and to a certain extent mask the impact of climate change.” The report also notes that “migration can result from different environmental factors, among them gradual environmental degradation (including desertification, soil and coastal erosion) and natural disasters (such as earthquakes, floods or tropical storms).”10 (See box on page 15 for a more detailed definition of climate migrants.) Clearly, then, climate change is expected to aggravate many existing migratory pressures around the world. Indeed associated extreme weather events resulting in drought, floods, and disease are projected to increase the number of sudden humanitarian crises and disasters in areas least able to cope, such as those already mired in poverty or prone to conflict.11 Conflict This final layer is the most unpredictable, both within nations and transnationally, and will force the United States and the international community to confront climate and migration challenges within an increasingly unstructured local or regional security environment. In contrast to the great power conflicts and the associated proxy wars that marked most of the 20th century, the immediate post- Cold War decades witnessed a diffusion of national security interests and threats. U.S. national security policy is increasingly integrating thinking about nonstate actors and nontraditional sources of conflict and instability, for example in the fight against Al Qaeda and its affiliated groups. Climate change is among these newly visible issues sparking conflict. But because the direct link between conflict and climate change is unclear, awareness of the indirect links has yet to lead to substantial and sustained action to address its security implications. Still the potential for the changing climate to induce conflictor exacerbate existing instability in some of the world’s most vulnerable regions is now recognized in national security circles in the United States, although research gaps still exists in many places. The climate-conflict nexus was highlighted with particular effect by the current U.S. administration’s security-planning reviews over the past two years, as well as the Center for Naval Analysis, which termed climate change a “threat multiplier,” indicating that it can exacerbate existing stresses and insecurity.12 The Pentagon’s latest Quadrennial Defense Review also recognized climate change as an “accelerant of instability or conflict,” highlighting the operational challenges that will confront U.S. and partner militaries amid a rising sea level, growing extreme weather events, and other anticipated effects of climate change.13 The U.S. Department of Defense has even voiced concern for American military installations that may be threatened by a rising sea level.14 There is also well-developed international analysis on these points. The United Kingdom’s 2010 Defense Review, for example, referenced the security aspects of climate change as an evolving challenge for militaries and policymakers. Additionally, in 2010, the Nigerian government referred to climate change as the “greatest environmental and humanitarian challenge facing the country this century,” demonstrating that climate change is no longer seen as solely scientific or environmental, but increasingly as a social and political issue cutting across all aspects of human development.15 As these three threads—climate change, migration, and conflict—interact more intensely, the consequences will be far-reaching and occasionally counterintuitive. It is impossible to predict the outcome of the Arab Spring movement, for example, but the blossoming of democracy in some countries and the demand for it in others is partly an unexpected result of the consequences of climate change on global food prices. On the other hand, the interplay of these factors will drive complex crisis situations in which domestic policy, international policy, humanitarian assistance, and security converge in new ways. Areas of concern Several regional hotspotsfrequently come up in the international debate on climate change, migration, and conflict. Climate migrants in northwest Africa, for example, are causing communities across the region to respond in different ways, often to the detriment of regional and international security concerns. Political and social instability in the region plays into the hands of organizations such as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. And recent developments in Libya, especially the large number of weapons looted from depots after strongman Moammar Qaddafi’s regime fell— which still remain unaccounted for—are a threat to stability across North Africa. Effective solutions need not address all of these issues simultaneously but must recognize the layers of relationships among them. And these solutions must also recognize that these variables will not always intersect in predictable ways. While some migrants may flee floodplains, for example, others may migrate to them in search of greater opportunities in coastal urban areas.16 Bangladesh, already well known for its disastrous floods, faces rising waters in the future due to climate-driven glacial meltdowns in neighboring India. The effects can hardly be over. In December 2008 the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., ran an exercise that explored the impact of a flood that sent hundreds of thousands of refugees into neighboring India. The result: the exercise predicted a new wave of migration would touch off religious conflicts, encourage the spread of contagious diseases, and cause vast damage to infrastructure. India itself is not in a position to absorb climate-induced pressures—never mind foreign climate migrants. The country will contribute 22 percent of global population growth and have close to 1.6 billion inhabitants by 2050, causing demographic developments that are sure to spark waves of internal migration across the country. Then there’s theAndean region of South America, where melting glaciers and snowcapswill drive climate, migration, and security concerns. The average rate of glacial melting has doubled over the past few years, according to the World Glacier Monitoring Service.17 Besides Peru, which faces the gravest consequences in Latin America, a number of other Andean countries will be massively affected, including Bolivia, Ecuador, and Colombia. This development will put water security, agricultural production, and power generation at risk—all factors that could prompt people to leave their homes and migrate. The IPCC report argues that the region is especially vulnerable because of its fragile ecosystem.18 Finally, China is now in its fourth decade of ever-growing internal migration, some of it driven in recent years by environmental change. Today, across its vast territory, China continues to experience the full spectrum of climate change related consequences that have the potential to continue to encourage such migration. The Center for a New American Security recently found that the consequences of climate change and continued internal migration in China include “water stress; increased droughts, flooding, or other severe events; increased coastal erosion and saltwater inundation; glacial melt in the Himala as that could affect hundreds of millions; and shifting agricultural zones”—all of which will affect food supplies. 19 Pg. 1-7
*asteroids impact
Cloud computing is also critical to space situational awareness – solves asteroids and debris
Johnston et al 9 [Steven, PhD in computer engineering and MEng degree in software engineering, specializes in cloud-based architecture, Kenji Takeda, Solutions Architect and Technical Manager for the Microsoft Research Connections EMEA team, has extensive experience in Cloud Computing, Hugh Lewis, professor at University of Southampton, specialist in space situational awareness, Simon Cox, professor of Computational Methods and Director of the Microsoft Institute for High Performance Computing at University of Southampton, Graham Swinerd, professor at University of Southampton, specializes in space situational awareness, “Cloud Computing for Planetary Defense”, http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/71883/1/John_09.pdf, October 2009, 3/31/15]
Abstract¶ In this paper we demonstrate how a cloud-based computing architecture can be used for planetary defense and space situational awareness (SSA). We show how utility compute can facilitate both a financially economical and highly scalable solution for space debris and near-earth object impact analysis. As we improve our ability to track smaller space objects, and satellite collisions occur, the volume of objects being tracked vastly increases, increasing computational demands. Propagating trajectories and calculating conjunctions becomes increasingly time critical, thus requiring an architecture which can scale with demand. The extension of this to tackle the problem of a future near-earth object impact is discussed, and how cloud computing can play a key role in this civilisation-threatening scenario.¶ Introduction¶ Space situational awareness includes scientific and operational aspects of space weather, near-earth objects and space debris. This project is part of an international effort to provide a global response strategy to the threat of a Near Earth Object (NEO) impacting the earth, led by the United Nations Committee for the Peaceful Use of Space (UN-COPUOS). The impact of a NEO – an asteroid or comet – is a severe natural hazard but is unique in that technology exists to predict and to prevent it, given sufficient warning. As such, the International Spaceguard survey has identified nearly 1,000 potentially hazardous asteroids >1km in size although NEOs smaller than one kilometre remain predominantly undetected, exist in far greater numbers and impact the Earth more frequently1. Impacts by objects larger than 100 m (twice the size of the asteroid that caused the Barringer crater in Arizona) could occur with little or no warning, with the energy of hundreds of nuclear weapons, and are “devastating at potentially unimaginable levels”2 (Figure 1). The tracking and prediction of potential NEO impacts is of international importance, particularly with regard to disaster management. Space debris poses a serious risk to satellites and space missions. Currently Space Track3 publishes the locations of about 10,000 objects that are publicly available. These include satellites, operational and defunct, space debris from missions and space junk. It is believed that there are about 19,000 objects with a diameter over 10cm. Even the smallest space junk travelling at about 17,000 miles per hour can cause serious damage; the Space Shuttle has undergone 92 window changes due to debris impact, resulting in concerns that a more serious accident is imminent4, and the International Space Station has to execute evasion manoeuvres to avoid debris. There are over 300,000 objects over 1cm in diameter and there is a desire to track most , if not all of these. By improving ground sensors and introducing sensors on satellites the Space Track database will increase in size. By tracking and predicting space debris behaviour in more detail we can reduce collisions as the orbital environment becomes ever more crowded.¶ Cloud computing provides the ability to trade computation time against costs. It also favours an architecture which inherently scales, providing burst capability. By treating compute as a utility, compute cycles are only paid for when they are used. Here we present a cloud application framework to tackle space debris tracking and analysis, that is being extended for NEO impact analysis. Notably, in this application propagation and conjunction analysis results in peak compute loads for only 20% of the day, with burst capability required in the event of a collision when the number of objects increases dramatically; the Iridium-33 Cosmos-2251 collision in 2009 resulted in an additional 1,131 trackable objects (Figure 2). Utility computation can quickly adapt to these situations consuming more compute, incurring a monetary cost but keeping computation wall clock time to a constant . In the event of a conjunction event being predicted, satellite operators would have to be quickly alerted so they could decide what mitigating action to take.¶ In this work we have migrated a series of discrete manual computing processes to the Azure cloud platform to improve capability and scalability. It is the initial prototype for a broader space situational awareness platform. The workflow involves the following steps: obtain satellite position data, validate data, run propagation simulation, store results, perform conjunction analysis, query satellite object, and visualise.¶ Satellite locations are published twice a day by Space Track, resulting in bi-daily high workloads. Every time the locations are published, all previous propagation calculations are halted, and the propagator starts recalculating the expected future orbits. Every orbit can be different, albeit only slightly from a previous estimate, but this means that all conjunction analysis has to be recomputed.The quicker this workflow is completed the quicker possible conjunction alerts can be triggered, providing more time for mitigation.¶ The concept project uses Windows Azure as a cloud provider and is architected as a data-driven workflow consuming satellite locations and resulting in conjunction alerts, as shown in Figure 3. Satellite locations are published in a standard format know as a Two-Line Element (TLE) that fully describes a spacecraft and its orbit. Any TLE publisher can be consumed, in this case the Space Track website, but also ground observation station data. The list of TLEs are first separated into individual TLE Objects, validated and inserted into a queue. TLE queue objects are consumed by comparator workers which check to see if the TLE exists; new TLEs are added to an Azure Table and an update notification added to the Update Queue.¶ TLEs in the update notification queue are new and each requires propagation; this is an embarrassingly parallel computation that scales well across the cloud. Any propagator can be used. We currently support NORAD SGP4 propagator and a custom Southampton simulation (C++) code. Each propagated object has to be compared with all other propagations to see if there is a conjunction (predicted close approach). Any conjunction source or code can be used, currently only SGP4 is implemented; plans are to incorporate more complicated filtering and conjunction analysis routines as they become available. Conjunctions result in alerts which are visible in the Azure Satellite tracker client. The client uses Virtual Earth to display the orbits. Ongoing work includes expanding the Virtual Earth client as well as adding support for custom clients by exposing the data through a REST interface. This pluggable architecture ensures that additional propagators and conjunction codes can be incorporated, and as part of ongoing work we intend to expand the available analysis codes.¶ The framework demonstrated here is being extended as a generic space situational service bus to include NEO impact predictions. This will exploit the pluggable simulation code architecture and the cloud’s burst computing capability in order to allow refinement of predictions for disaster management simulations and potential emergency scenarios anywhere on the globe.¶ Summary¶ We have shown how a new architecture can be applied to space situational awareness to provide a scalable robust data-driven architecture which can enhance the ability of existing disparate analysis codes by integrating them together in a common framework. By automating the ability to alert satellite owners to potential conjunction scenarios we reduce the potential of conjunction oversight and decrease the response time, thus making space safer. This framework is being extended to NEO trajectory and impact analysis to help improve planetary defencs capability for all.
Asteroid strikes are likely and cause extinction
Casey, 6/30/15 – environmental, scientific, and technological reporter for CBS News (Michael, “On Asteroid Day, raising awareness that Earth could get hit again”, CBS News, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/asteroid-day-raising-awareness-earth-could-be-hit-by-asteroids/, //11)
"Asteroids are the only natural disaster we know how to prevent and protecting our planet, families and communities is the goal of Asteroid Day," said Grigorij Richters, producer of the asteroid-themed movie "51 Degrees North" and co-founder of Asteroid Day. "Asteroids teach us about the origins of life, but they also can impact the future of our species and life on Earth."
Most of what people know about asteroids comes from movies like "Deep Impact" or "Armageddon," or because they've heard that an asteroid triggered global disasters that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
But asteroids are not just the stuff of science fiction or ancient history. In January, a huge asteroid passed close to Earth - within 745,000 miles (1.2 million kilometers) of our planet. NASA said it was the closest any space rock is expected to come to Earth until asteroid 1999 AN10 flies past in 2027, but there could be other close calls scientists aren't expecting.
In 2013, an asteroid exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia - creating a fireball brighter than the sun and an explosion that was as powerful as about 40 Hiroshima-type bombs.
NASA seems to concur that the threat has to be taken seriously.
Earlier this month, NASA signed a deal with the National Nuclear Security Administration to look into the nuclear option should they discover that an asteroid was on a collision course with Earth. The space agency currently only tracks about 10 percent of the 1 million asteroids in our solar system with the potential to strike Earth, according to Asteroid Day.org.
The European Space Agency, meanwhile, convened a meeting Tuesday with emergency response officers from Switzerland, Germany, Luxembourg, Romania, Sweden and the United Kingdom to discuss how to respond to the asteroid threat.
"Planets can't hit us, while comet debris doesn't survive to strike our surface. But asteroids -- chunks of stone or metal -- arrive by the thousands every day, and are responsible for nearly all of the 50,000 catalogued meteorites," Slooh astronomer Bob Berman said. "The largest asteroids are fascinating to observe, while the hazardous ones need to be watched while defenses are being conceived."
In December, astrophysicist Dr. Brian May (who was also a founding member and lead guitarist of the rock band Queen) joined Lord Martin Rees, UK Astronomer Royal; Bill Nye, the Science Guy; and astronauts Rusty Schweickart, Ed Lu and Tom Jones to launch Asteroid Day. In their mission statement, they said their goal was nothing short of ensuring the survival of future generations.
As part of that, they also announced the 100X Declaration, which calls for a 100-fold increase in detection and monitoring of asteroids.
"The more we learn about asteroid impacts, the clearer it becomes that the human race has been living on borrowed time," May said. "Asteroid Day and the 100X Declaration are ways for the public to contribute to bring about an awareness that we can get hit anytime. A city could be wiped out any time because we just don't know enough about what's out there."
– detection needed
At least 10% are undetected
Robson, 7/3/15 – reporter for National Post (John, National Post, “Fear the asteroid, humanity’s greatest threat!”, http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-robson-fear-the-asteroid-humanitys-greatest-threat, //11)
How big is the danger? NBC’s story on Asteroid Day noted with curious complacency that “based on a statistical analysis, NASA says it’s found more than 90 percent of the estimated 981 asteroids” a kilometre or more wide capable of annihilating civilization. So that missing nearly 10 per cent leaves, um, almost 100 lurking undetected, right guys? Plus NASA hasn’t found 90 per cent of those over 140 meters wide, let alone the “hundreds of thousands” of smaller ones still capable of smashing a city. I’d grade this “incomplete” at best.
If you’re not worried yet, consider that the goal of Asteroid Day is to increase the number of near-Earth objects found from 1,000 to 100,000 a year. A year? Man, they’ll have to queue up to dive onto us.
– tech discussions key
Technical discussions about asteroids are crucial to educating the public
Morrison et al 2 – Morrison: NASA Astrobiology Institute; Harris: NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Sommer: RAND Corporation; Chapman: Southwest Research Institute, Boulder; Carusi: IAS, Roma (David Morrison, Alan W. Harris, Geoff Sommer, Clark R. Chapman, Andrea Carusi, “Dealing with the Impact Hazard”, 6/8/02, http://www.disastersrus.org/emtools/spacewx/NEO_Chapter_1.pdf, //11)
While NEO research embodies classic scientific objectives, studies of impact hazards form an applied science that may be judged by different criteria. In determining an NEO hazard mitigation strategy, we must consider the reaction of society. Such considerations are familiar to specialists in other fields of natural hazard, such as meteorology (with respect to storm forecasts) and seismology. NEO hazard specialists have the added difficulty of explaining a science that is arcane (orbital dynamics) and beyond personal experience (no impact disaster within recorded history). As the NEO community has begun to realize, it has a social responsibility to ensure that its message is not just heard but comprehended by society at large. The adoption of the Torino Impact Scale (Binzel, 1997, 2000) was a notable first step toward public communication, although the unique aspects of NEO detection and warning (particularly the evolution of uncertainty) continue to cause communications difficulties (Chapman, 2000).
– at: no deflection
We have deflection capabilities, but detection is key
Wall, 13 – senior writer at space.com (Mike, Space.com, “How Humanity Could Deflect a Giant Killer Asteroid”, 11/22/13, http://www.space.com/23530-killer-asteroid-deflection-saving-humanity.html, //11)
Humanity has the skills and know-how to deflect a killer asteroid of virtually any size, as long as the incoming space rock is spotted with enough lead time, experts say.
Our species could even nudge off course a 6-mile-wide (10 kilometers) behemoth like the one that dispatched the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. We'd likely have to slam multiple spacecraft into a gigantic asteroid over a period of several decades to do the job, but the high stakes would motivate such a strong and sustained response, researchers say.
"If you can hit it with a kinetic impactor, you can hit it with 10 or 100 of them," former NASA astronaut Ed Lu, chairman and CEO of the nonprofit B612 Foundation, which is devoted to protecting Earth against asteroid strikes, said during a news conference last month.
"And I would submit to you that if we were finding an asteroid that's going to wipe out all life on Earth, or the majority of life on Earth, that funding is not an issue for launching 100 of them," Lu added.
Undiscovered asteroids
Lu and four other spaceflyers spoke Oct. 25 at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City. A primary purpose of the event was to draw attention to the danger asteroids pose to human civilization and life on Earth, and to discuss ways to mitigate the threat.
Earth has been pummeled by space rocks repeatedly over the eons and will continue to get hit, a reality that was reinforced in February when a 55-foot-wide (17 meters) space rock exploded in the atmosphere over the Russian city of Chelyabinsk, injuring more than 1,000 people.
The Russian meteor came out of nowhere, evading detection by the various instruments that are scanning the heavens for potentially hazardous objects. And there are many more such space rocks out there, gliding through deep space unknown and unnamed.
To date, scientists have discovered about 10,000 near-Earth objects, or NEOs — just 1 percent of the 1 million or so asteroids thought to come uncomfortably close to our planet at some point in their orbits. So the top priority of any asteroid-defense effort should be a stepped-up detection campaign, Lu said.
"Our challenge is to find these asteroids first, before they find us," he said. "You cannot deflect an asteroid you haven't yet found."
– at: psycho
Asteroids are real threats – psychoanalysis does not disprove our factual claims
Yudkowsky, 8 – Research Fellow and Director of the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, principal contributor to the Oxford-sponsored Overcoming Biases (Eliezer, Machine Intelligence Research Institute, “Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks”, https://intelligence.org/files/CognitiveBiases.pdf, //11)
Robert Pirsig said: “The world’s biggest fool can say the sun is shining, but that doesn’t make it dark out.” If you believe someone is guilty of a psychological error, then demonstrate your competence by first demolishing their consequential factual errors. If there are no factual errors, then what matters the psychology? The temptation of psychology is that, knowing a little psychology, we can meddle in arguments where we have no technical expertise—instead sagely analyzing the psychology of the disputants.
If someone wrote a novel about an asteroid strike destroying modern civilization, then someone might criticize that novel as extreme, dystopian, apocalyptic; symptomatic of the author’s naive inability to deal with a complex technological society. We should recognize this as a literary criticism, not a scientific one; it is about good or bad novels, not good or bad hypotheses. To quantify the annual probability of an asteroid strike in real life, one must study astronomy and the historical record: no amount of literary criticism can put a number on it. Garreau (2005) seems to hold that a scenario of a mind slowly increasing in capability, is more mature and sophisticated than a scenario of extremely rapid intelligence increase. But that’s a technical question, not a matter of taste; no amount of psychologizing can tell you the exact slope of that curve.
It’s harder to abuse heuristics and biases than psychoanalysis. Accusing someone of conjunction fallacy leads naturally into listing the specific details that you think are burdensome and drive down the joint probability. Even so, do not lose track of the real-world facts of primary interest; do not let the argument become about psychology.
Despite all dangers and temptations, it is better to know about psychological biases than to not know. Otherwise we will walk directly into the whirling helicopter blades of life. But be very careful not to have too much fun accusing others of biases. That is the road that leads to becoming a sophisticated arguer—someone who, faced with any discomforting argument, finds at once a bias in it. The one whom you must watch above all is yourself.
Jerry Cleaver said: “What does you in is not failure to apply some high-level, intricate, complicated technique. It’s overlooking the basics. Not keeping your eye on the ball.”
Analyses should finally center on testable real-world assertions. Do not take your eye off the ball.
Cyber Security Answers
General Defense
Background
Frontline Answers
No cyber attacks – civilian harm, can only be used once, can be reversed to target the attacker, retribution, resource limits, need luck, lack of assets
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
We find that the security dilemma has no place in these international interactions. The cyber world is nebulous; an infiltration against a military facility in this realm could bleed into the public sector. Malicious cyber incidents on infrastructure have been and will continue to be rare to nonexistent because states are restrained due to the high probability of civilian harm, the nature of the weapons (single use), and the weak payoffs if utilized (Gartzke 2013). These types of offensive cyber actions are just as unlikely as interstate nuclear or chemical weapons attacks. There is a system of normative restraint in cyber operations based on the conditions of collateral damage, plus the factors of blowback and replication. Foreign policy tactics in the cyber world can be replicated and reproduced. Any cyber weapon used can be turned right back on its initiator.On top of this, it is likely that severe cyber operations will be bring retribution and consequences that many states are not willing to accept. We have seen many interstate conflicts since the advent of the Internet age, but the largest and only cyber operation thus far during a conventional military conflict, the 2008 Russo-Georgian skirmish, consisted of almost trivial DDoS and vandalism. Since then, Russia has even avoided using cyber weapons during the Crimean and larger Ukrainian crises of 2014. Other operations are mainly propaganda operations or occur in the realm of espionage. That the United States did not use cyber tactics against Iraq, Afghanistan, or Libya, at least as directed at the executive level, signifies that cyber tactics are typically restrained despite significant constituencies in the military that want to use the weapons. Stuxnet is the outlier, as our data demonstrate, not the norm or the harbinger of the future to come. Cyber operations are limited in that their value is negligible, the consequences of a massive cyber incident are drastic, and the requirements to carry one out are vast. The idea of a lone cyber hacker being able to bring states to their knees is a fantastic one. Cyber operations like Stuxnet require an exceptional amount of funds,technical knowledge, luck, and on-the-ground assets for successful implementation. Massive and truly dangerous cyber operations are beyond the means of most countries. These statements are not opinions, but contentions made based on the facts at hand and the data we have collected. We also see regionalism dominate in cyberspace. Despite the vastness and transboundary capacity of the Internet, most operations are limited to local targets connected to traditional causes of conflict, such as territorial disputes and leadership disagreements. Issues are important (Mansbach and Vasquez 1981) in world politics and in cyber politics. This is why international relations scholarship is so important in relation to the cyber question. Cyber operations are not taken devoid of their international and historical contexts. What has happened in the past will influence how future technologies are leveraged and where they are applied. The goal of this book will be to use this theoretical frame to explain the cyber conflict dynamics of rival states, as well as non-state actors willing and able to launch cyber malice. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (pp. 16-17). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Zero impact to cyber-attacks --- overwhelming consensus of qualified authors goes neg
- No motivation---can’t be used for coercive leverage
- Defenses solve---benefits of offense are overstated
- Too difficult to execute/mistakes in code are inevitable
- AT: Infrastructure attacks
- Military networks are air-gapped/difficult to access
- Overwhelming consensus goes neg
Colin S. Gray 13, Prof. of International Politics and Strategic Studies @ the University of Reading and External Researcher @ the Strategic Studies Institute @ the U.S. Army War College, April, “Making Strategic Sense of Cyber Power: Why the Sky Is Not Falling,” U.S. Army War College Press, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1147.pdf
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: THE SKY IS NOT FALLING¶ This analysis has sought to explore, identify, and explain the strategic meaning of cyber power. The organizing and thematic question that has shaped and driven the inquiry has been “So what?” Today we all do cyber, but this behavior usually has not been much informed by an understanding that reaches beyond the tactical and technical. I have endeavored to analyze in strategic terms what is on offer from the largely technical and tactical literature on cyber. What can or might be done and how to go about doing it are vitally important bodies of knowledge. But at least as important is understanding what cyber, as a fifth domain of warfare, brings to national security when it is considered strategically. Military history is stocked abundantly with examples of tactical behavior un - guided by any credible semblance of strategy. This inquiry has not been a campaign to reveal what cy ber can and might do; a large literature already exists that claims fairly convincingly to explain “how to . . .” But what does cyber power mean, and how does it fit strategically, if it does? These Conclusions and Rec ommendations offer some understanding of this fifth geography of war in terms that make sense to this strategist, at least. ¶ 1. Cyber can only be an enabler of physical effort. Stand-alone (popularly misnamed as “strategic”) cyber action is inherently grossly limited by its immateriality. The physicality of conflict with cyber’s human participants and mechanical artifacts has not been a passing phase in our species’ strategic history. Cyber action, quite independent of action on land, at sea, in the air, and in orbital space, certainly is possible. But the strategic logic of such behavior, keyed to anticipated success in tactical achievement, is not promising. To date, “What if . . .” speculation about strategic cyber attack usually is either contextually too light, or, more often, contextually unpersuasive. 49 However, this is not a great strategic truth, though it is a judgment advanced with considerable confidence. Although societies could, of course, be hurt by cyber action, it is important not to lose touch with the fact, in Libicki’s apposite words, that “[i]n the absence of physical combat, cyber war cannot lead to the occupation of territory. It is almost inconceivable that a sufficiently vigorous cyber war canoverthrow the adversary’s government and replace it with a more pliable one.” 50 In the same way that the concepts of sea war, air war, and space war are fundamentally unsound, so also the idea of cyber war is unpersuasive. ¶ It is not impossible, but then, neither is war conducted only at sea, or in the air, or in space. On the one hand, cyber war may seem more probable than like environmentally independent action at sea or in the air. After all, cyber warfare would be very unlikely to harm human beings directly, let alone damage physically the machines on which they depend. These near-facts (cyber attack might cause socially critical machines to behave in a rogue manner with damaging physical consequences) might seem to ren - der cyber a safer zone of belligerent engagement than would physically violent action in other domains. But most likely there would be serious uncertainties pertaining to the consequences of cyber action, which must include the possibility of escalation into other domains of conflict. Despite popular assertions to the contrary, cyber is not likely to prove a precision weapon anytime soon. 51 In addition, assuming that the political and strategic contexts for cyber war were as serious as surely they would need to be to trigger events warranting plausible labeling as cyber war, the distinctly limited harm likely to follow from cyber assault would hardly appeal as prospectively effective coercive moves. On balance, it is most probable that cyber’s strategic future in war will be as a contribut - ing enabler of effectiveness of physical efforts in the other four geographies of conflict. Speculation about cyber war, defined strictly as hostile action by net - worked computers against networked computers, is hugely unconvincing.¶ 2. Cyber defense is difficult, but should be sufficiently effective. The structural advantages of the offense in cyber conflict are as obvious as they are easy to overstate. Penetration and exploitation, or even attack, would need to be by surprise. It can be swift almost beyond the imagination of those encultured by the traditional demands of physical combat. Cyber attack may be so stealthy that it escapes notice for a long while, or it might wreak digital havoc by com - plete surprise. And need one emphasize, that at least for a while, hostile cyber action is likely to be hard (though not quite impossible) to attribute with a cy - berized equivalent to a “smoking gun.” Once one is in the realm of the catastrophic “What if . . . ,” the world is indeed a frightening place. On a personal note, this defense analyst was for some years exposed to highly speculative briefings that hypothesized how unques - tionably cunning plans for nuclear attack could so promptly disable the United States as a functioning state that our nuclear retaliation would likely be still - born. I should hardly need to add that the briefers of these Scary Scenarios were obliged to make a series of Heroic Assumptions. ¶The literature of cyber scare is more than mildly reminiscent of the nuclear attack stories with which I was assailed in the 1970s and 1980s. As one may observe regarding what Winston Churchill wrote of the disaster that was the Gallipoli campaign of 1915, “[t]he terrible ‘Ifs’ accumulate.” 52 Of course, there are dangers in the cyber domain. Not only are there cyber-competent competitors and enemies abroad; there are also Americans who make mistakes in cyber operation. Furthermore, there are the manufacturers and constructors of the physical artifacts behind (or in, depending upon the preferred definition) cyber - space who assuredly err in this and that detail. The more sophisticated—usually meaning complex—the code for cyber, the more certain must it be that mistakes both lurk in the program and will be made in digital communication.¶ What I have just outlined minimally is not a reluc - tant admission of the fallibility of cyber, but rather a statement of what is obvious and should be anticipat - ed about people and material in a domain of war. All human activities are more or less harassed by friction and carry with them some risk of failure, great or small. A strategist who has read Clausewitz, especially Book One of On War , 53 will know this. Alternatively, anyone who skims my summary version of the general theory of strategy will note that Dictum 14 states explicitly that “Strategy is more difficult to devise and execute than are policy, operations, and tactics: friction of all kinds comprise phenomena inseparable from the mak - ing and execution of strategies.” 54 Because of its often widely distributed character, the physical infrastruc - ture of an enemy’s cyber power is typically, though not invariably, an impracticable target set for physical assault. Happily, this probable fact should have only annoying consequences. The discretionary nature and therefore the variable possible characters feasible for friendly cyberspace(s), mean that the more danger - ous potential vulnerabilities that in theory could be the condition of our cyber-dependency ought to be avoidable at best, or bearable and survivable at worst. Libicki offers forthright advice on this aspect of the subject that deserves to be taken at face value: ¶ [T]here is no inherent reason that improving informa - tion technologies should lead to a rise in the amount of critical information in existence (for example, the names of every secret agent). Really critical information should never see a computer; if it sees a computer, it should not be one that is networked; and if the computer is networked, it should be air-gapped.¶Cyber defense admittedly is difficult to do, but so is cyber offense. To quote Libicki yet again, “[i]n this medium [cyberspace] the best defense is not necessarily a good offense; it is usually a good defense.” 56 Unlike the geostrategic context for nuclear-framed competition in U.S.–Soviet/Russian rivalry, the geographical domain of cyberspace definitely is defensible. Even when the enemy is both clever and lucky, it will be our own design and operating fault if he is able to do more than disrupt and irritate us temporarily.¶ When cyber is contextually regarded properly— which means first, in particular, when it is viewed as but the latest military domain for defense planning—it should be plain to see that cyber performance needs to be good enough rather than perfect. 57 Our Landpower, sea power, air power, and prospectively our space systems also will have to be capable of accepting combat damage and loss, then recovering and carrying on. There is no fundamental reason that less should be demanded of our cyber power. Second, given that cyber is not of a nature or potential character at all likely to parallel nuclear dangers in the menace it could con - tain, we should anticipate international cyber rivalry to follow the competitive dynamic path already fol - lowed in the other domains in the past. Because the digital age is so young, the pace of technical change and tactical invention can be startling. However, the mechanization RMA of the 1920s and 1930s recorded reaction to the new science and technology of the time that is reminiscent of the cyber alarmism that has flour - ished of recent years. 58 We can be confident that cyber defense should be able to function well enough, given the strength of political, military, and commercial motivation for it to do so. The technical context here is a medium that is a constructed one, which provides air-gapping options for choice regarding the extent of networking. Naturally, a price is paid in convenience for some closing off of possible cyberspace(s), but all important defense decisions involve choice, so what is novel about that? There is nothing new about accepting some limitations on utility as a price worth paying for security.¶ 3. Intelligence is critically important, but informa - tion should not be overvalued. The strategic history of cyber over the past decade confirms what we could know already from the science and technology of this new domain for conflict. Specifically, cyber power is not technically forgiving of user error. Cyber warriors seeking criminal or military benefit require precise information if their intended exploits are to succeed. Lucky guesses should not stumble upon passwords, while efforts to disrupt electronic Supervisory Con - trol and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems ought to be unable to achieve widespread harmful effects. But obviously there are practical limits to the air-gap op - tion, given that control (and command) systems need to be networks for communication. However, Internet connection needs to be treated as a potential source of serious danger.¶It is one thing to be able to be an electronic nuisance, to annoy, disrupt, and perhaps delay. But it is quite another to be capable of inflicting real persisting harm on the fighting power of an enemy. Critically important military computer networks are, of course, accessible neither to the inspired amateur outsider, nor to the malignant political enemy. Easy passing reference to a hypothetical “cyber Pearl Harbor”reflects both poor history and ignorance of contemporary military common sense. Critical potential military (and other) targets for cyber attack are extremely hard to access and influence (I believe and certainly hope), and the technical knowledge, skills, and effort required to do serious harm to national security is forbiddingly high. This is not to claim, foolishly, that cyber means absolutely could not secure near-catastrophic results. However, it is to say that such a scenario is extremely improbable. Cyber defense is advancing all the time, as is cyber offense, of course. But so discretionary in vital detail can one be in the making of cyberspace, that confidence—real confidence—in cyber attack could not plausibly be high. It should be noted that I am confining this particular discussion to what rather idly tends to be called cyber war. In political and strategic practice, it is unlikely that war would or, more importantly, ever could be restricted to the EMS. Somewhat rhetorically, one should pose the question: Is it likely (almost anything, strictly, is possible) that cyber war with the potential to inflict catastrophic damage would be allowed to stand unsupported in and by action in the other four geographical domains of war? I believe not.¶ Because we have told ourselves that ours uniquely is the Information Age, we have become unduly respectful of the potency of this rather slippery catch-all term. As usual, it is helpful to contextualize the al - legedly magical ingredient, information, by locating it properly in strategic history as just one important element contributing to net strategic effectiveness. This mild caveat is supported usefully by recognizing the general contemporary rule that information per se harms nothing and nobody. The electrons in cyber - ized conflict have to be interpreted and acted upon by physical forces (including agency by physical human beings). As one might say, intelligence (alone) sinks no ship; only men and machines can sink ships! That said, there is no doubt that if friendly cyber action can infiltrate and misinform the electronic informa - tion on which advisory weaponry and other machines depend, considerable warfighting advantage could be gained. I do not intend to join Clausewitz in his dis - dain for intelligence, but I will argue that in strategic affairs, intelligence usually is somewhat uncertain. 59 Detailed up-to-date intelligence literally is essential for successful cyber offense, but it can be healthily sobering to appreciate that the strategic rewards of intelligence often are considerably exaggerated. The basic reason is not hard to recognize. Strategic success is a complex endeavor that requires adequate perfor - mances by many necessary contributors at every level of conflict (from the political to the tactical). ¶ When thoroughly reliable intelligence on the en - emy is in short supply, which usually is the case, the strategist finds ways to compensate as best he or she can. The IT-led RMA of the past 2 decades was fueled in part by the prospect of a quality of military effec - tiveness that was believed to flow from “dominant battle space knowledge,” to deploy a familiar con - cept. 60 While there is much to be said in praise of this idea, it is not unreasonable to ask why it has been that our ever-improving battle space knowledge has been compatible with so troubled a course of events in the 2000s in Iraq and Afghanistan. What we might have misunderstood is not the value of knowledge, or of the information from which knowledge is quarried, or even the merit in the IT that passed information and knowledge around. Instead, we may well have failed to grasp and grip understanding of the whole context of war and strategy for which battle space knowledge unquestionably is vital. One must say “vital” rather than strictly essential, because relatively ignorant armies can and have fought and won despite their ig - norance. History requires only that one’s net strategic performance is superior to that of the enemy. One is not required to be deeply well informed about the en - emy. It is historically quite commonplace for armies to fight in a condition of more-than-marginal reciprocal and strategic cultural ignorance. Intelligence is king in electronic warfare, but such warfare is unlikely to be solely, or even close to solely, sovereign in war and its warfare, considered overall as they should be.¶ 4. Why the sky will not fall. More accurately, one should say that the sky will not fall because of hostile action against us in cyberspace unless we are improb - ably careless and foolish. David J. Betz and Tim Ste vens strike the right note when they conclude that “[i]f cyberspace is not quite the hoped-for Garden of Eden, it is also not quite the pestilential swamp of the imagination of the cyber-alarmists.” 61 Our understanding of cyber is high at the technical and tactical level, but re - mains distinctly rudimentary as one ascends through operations to the more rarified altitudes of strategy and policy. Nonetheless, our scientific, technological, and tactical knowledge and understanding clearly indicates that the sky is not falling and is unlikely to fall in the future as a result of hostile cyber action.This analysis has weighed the more technical and tactical literature on cyber and concludes, not simply on balance,that cyber alarmism has little basis save in the imagination of the alarmists. There is military and civil peril in the hostile use of cyber, which is why we must take cyber security seriously, even to the point of buying redundant capabilities for a range of command and control systems. 62 So seriously should we regard cyber danger that it is only prudent to as - sume that we will be the target for hostile cyber action in future conflicts, and that some of that action will promote disruption and uncertainty in the damage it will cause.¶ That granted, this analysis recommends strongly that the U.S. Army, and indeed the whole of the U.S. Government, should strive to comprehend cyber in context. Approached in isolation as a new technol - ogy, it is not unduly hard to be over impressed with its potential both for good and harm. But if we see networked computing as just the latest RMA in an episodic succession of revolutionary changes in the way information is packaged and communicated, the computer-led IT revolution is set where it belongs, in historical context. In modern strategic history, there has been only one truly game-changing basket of tech - nologies, those pertaining to the creation and deliv - ery of nuclear weapons. Everything else has altered the tools with which conflict has been supported and waged, but has not changed the game. The nuclear revolution alone raised still-unanswered questions about the viability of interstate armed conflict. How - ever, it would be accurate to claim that since 1945, methods have been found to pursue fairly traditional political ends in ways that accommodate nonuse of nuclear means, notwithstanding the permanent pres - ence of those means.¶ The light cast by general strategic theory reveals what requires revealing strategically about networked computers. Once one sheds some of the sheer wonder at the seeming miracle of cyber’s ubiquity, instanta - neity, and (near) anonymity, one realizes that cyber is just another operational domain, though certainly one very different from the others in its nonphysi - cality in direct agency. Having placed cyber where it belongs, as a domain of war, next it is essential to recognize that its nonphysicality compels that cyber should be treated as an enabler of joint action, rather than as an agent of military action capable of behav - ing independently for useful coercive strategic effect. There are stand-alone possibilities for cyber action, but they are not convincing as attractive options either for or in opposition to a great power, let alone a superpower. No matter how intriguing the scenario design for cyber war strictly or for cyber warfare, the logic of grand and military strategy and a common sense fueled by understanding of the course of strategic history, require one so to contextualize cyber war that its independence is seen as too close to absurd to merit much concern.
Many barriers to a cyber attack
Martin Libicki, October 2014, A Dangerous World? Threat Perceptions and US National Security, ed. Christopher Peeble & John Mueller, Martin Libicki is a senior management scientist at the RAND Corporation, where his research focuses on the effects of information technology on domestic and national security. He is the author of several books, including Conquest in Cyberspace: National Security and Information Warfare and Information Technology Standards: Quest for the Common Byte. He has also written two cyberwar monographs: Cyberwar and Cyberdeterrence and Crisis and Escalation in Cyberspace. Prior to joining RAND, Libicki was a senior fellow at the National Defense University, page # at end of card
An attack as large as posited would be unprecedented. No comparable major cyberattack has occurred since the Internet became accessible to the world’s public 20 years ago. Although prior absence is no proof that it will never happen, it may be premature to declare a major attack inevitable.All the trend lines— good and bad— are rising at the same time: (a) the sophistication of attackers and defenders; (b) the salience of cyberattack as a weapon, but also the rising sensitivity to the prospect that such attacks are possible and must be countered; (c) the bandwidth available for organizing a flooding attack, but also to ward it off; and (d) the complexity of operational software (which increases the number of places where vulnerabilities can be found), but also the complexity of security software and systems (which deepens the number of levels an attack must overcome to succeed). (2014-10-14). A Dangerous World? Threat Perception and U.S. National Security (Kindle Locations 2518-2524). Cato Institute. Kindle Edition.
No cyber terror threat
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Non-state cyber terrorism is relatively weak and benign. To reiterate, our focus here is on state-based actions, but we should make it clear that non-state actor terrorist initiatives in cyberspace are limited because of the nature of the tactic— therefore our selection of domains is warranted and critical. Instead of being an easily utilized method of hitting an enemy, as common myths indicate, extreme cyber actions are generally only available to state-based actors because of the money, time, and skill involved to exploit cyber targets. We will dive into the reasons for the weakness of non-state/ terrorist actors more fully in Chapter 7, when we examine the process of Cyber Gaza and other operations. Stuxnet is also indicative of this process, and we will explore it in more depth in Chapter 6. In the Stuxnet case, the state actors must have had massive amounts of money and technological knowledge to create, transport, and initiate the cyber weapon. They also must have had assets inside the target willing to help make the operation a success. On top of this, they had to be incredibly lucky (or unlucky, in terms of how Stuxnet was released into the wild). Paradoxically, powerful states are the only ones who can really marshal offensive cyber capabilities to commit state-sponsored cyber terrorism, but they will not utilize this step, since the action would be so costly in terms of reputation.
No impact
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We developed our theory of cyber engagement fully in Chapter 3. The argument considers that cyber restraint is expected to dominate cyber interactions and should be predictive of future cyber operations. States will restrain themselves from crossing the “red lines” of cyber conflict because of the high operational and normative cost associated with these operations. They will not shut down military networks, knock out power grids, or black out Wall Street; the fear of blowback and retaliation not only in cyberspace, but by conventional means as well, is too great. States will also avoid these actions because of fears of collateral damage and infecting the rest of the Internet. Actions taken in cyberspace tend to invade all aspects of cyberspace. Even when states take actions to keep operations in the realm of cyber, the operations tend to spread and proliferate in ways not predicted. Escalated offensive capabilities will not be used because they could lead directly to war, civilian harm, and economic retaliation, which would then escalate conflict among states. These tactics would spread the conflict from the cyber realm to conventional conflict. Therefore, restraint is what we expect to find when we examine cyber conflict among states. States will do what they believe they can get away with and then will go no further. Restraint is the outcome we expect to see among states, while the process we expect to see at work is what we term cyber straitjacketing. The low level and limited amount of cyber conflict we do observe will mostly be between regional rivals, an unexpected result given the global reach of cyber technologies. Cyber regionalism is the assertion that most rival interactions in cyberspace will have a regional context, usually tied to territorial issues and other traditional issues between regional actors. However, because cyber conflict is restrained, these cyber incidents and disputes will usually take the form of propaganda, vandalism, or inconvenient denial of service methods and will not escalate to militarized conflict solely because of cyber issues. Escalation, especially among regional rivals, has been prevented through restraint thus far. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 213). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Cyber straight-jacketing means no attacks and diplomacy solves any impact
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Our notion of restraint being in operation in the cyber world also suggests the concept of straitjacketing cyber actors. Restraint alone cannot really be used to describe the policy process a state might consider when contemplating a cyber incident. Restraint represents the outcome of the policy process; the term that outlines the process under consideration might be more accurately termed cyber straitjacketing. States are straitjacketed in their ability to utilize cyber methods. In some ways, they are prevented from using the technology in order to prevent self-harm. Blowback and replication are real issues that need to be confronted in the cyber world. Any weapon used in this domain can be reproduced and directed back at the initiator. Using cyber tactics in many ways can harm the state more than it helps it. Likely the use of the technology will not produce a change in behavior of the target, but the action will be punished, and the cyber incident will become public. It is for these reasons that states will often willingly place their operatives in what might be considered constrained restriction. The consequences of using the technology at a maximum level are just too devastating. Another way to describe straitjacketing is that states are handcuffed in the operation of cyber tactics. Extreme actions are limited, because the conduct of these technologies is ungoverned and unlimited. The full range of motion is limited, due to the nature of the tactic and the taboo associated with its usage. Whichever term is preferred, the outcome is still the same: the limitation of action. While there might be negative connotations associated with each term given their history, the reality remains— that states are likely constrained in their actions, despite protestations that the international system is governed by anarchy. The paradox here is that no actor likes to be constrained in its policy choices. While the functional outcomes of the policy process and choices available to states are limited in the cyber realm, offensive posturing remains an option. States can threaten cyber retaliation in order to restrain a target from escalating a conflict, but the actual method of retaliation is often never in the cyber realm. When China infiltrates the United States in cyberspace, the United States utilizes diplomacy to solve the problem, rather than responding in a tit-for-tat manner. This avoids needless escalation, which could possibly get out of hand. Once again, the demonstration of responsibility of state-based actors defies conventional wisdom. States will even be prevented from using a cheap and quick tactic like cyber methods, because of the consequences of this use of the technology. When confronted with a new dynamic with immense potential, often states are prevented from utilizing the technology because of the difficulties in application, evaluation, and implementation. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 65). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Existing norms prevent escalation
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Just because something can happen does not mean it will. We argue that for now and for the foreseeable future, restraint dominates in cyberspace despite the worst-case predictions of prognosticators. States generally react in the international environment in a manner conducive to their interests. Sometimes, however, the security dilemma enters the elite and public discourse and can push states toward overreaction. The fear from perceived threats, such as those in the cyber domain, may influence the foreign policy decisions made by states (Jervis 1979). While there are counter-examples of the worst practices and failures, the norm is to cooperate and participate in constructive dialogue in the system. Considerations such as collateral damage and escalation usually guard against an unleashing of damaging cyber weapons. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 16). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Countries only engage in cyber espionage, not war
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Going further, we spell out a theory of cyber espionage and how cyber terrorism will be utilized by states. Here we define cyber espionage as the use of dangerous and offensive intelligence measures to steal, corrupt, or erase information in the cybersphere of interactions. What is unusual about cyber espionage is the paradox of the tactic being common, but also literally the least a state can do. When cyber actions are exhibited, they tend to be low-level espionage actions that do not rise to the level of conflict or warfare. States seem to be very measured and concentrated in their cyber espionage activities. They take action for specific reasons if there is a demonstrated weakness in a target. If a target seems to take few measures to protect the home base and its resources, the initiator will exploit the vulnerability. In the espionage realm, states seem to be doing the least they can, given that their demonstrated capabilities often far outweigh their actual expressions of activity. States will restrain themselves from unleashing the full weight of their cyber capabilities, because the damage done is not worth the costs. Simple cost-benefit analysis would suggest that this will be the course of cyber operations in the future, yet the discourse takes on a troubling and inflammatory tone, in terms of what others predict. In short, some hype the collective fears in the system for their own ends. What we end up seeing in this domain is spycraft, not warcraft. Operations are taken to exploit a weakness in security, rather than operations taken to exploit or crush a target. Choices in the cyber realm are not made based on a need to infiltrate a target, but almost solely on the opportunity to hit a target based on its failures to secure basic protection. When the walls are down, the state will do what it can to gather information. When the walls are up, the state will be restrained and will not seek to use methods to break down the walls, because there will be consequences for these actions. China has been notorious for finding and exploiting gaps in American cyberspace defenses, but it has also sought to limit its conflictual interactions with the United States in most other realms. In this way, we see cyber espionage activities as a method to make known what can be done in relation to defense gaps, rather than a method to seek exploitation based on offensive capabilities. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (pp. 49-50). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Cyberwar is less destructive than conventional war
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Rid (2013: 142) makes the interesting point that since cyber war is not taking place in the form of violence, death, and destruction, cyber conflict actually reduces the amount of overall violence between states. Activities such as espionage and subversion become more cost-effective (Rid 2013: 142), but also more benign and less risky in some senses. This is an interesting path, but no one has sought to follow it, to dissect the context of cyber conflict between states, and to examine their impact. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 43). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Managed relations and threats of collateral damage keep cyber warfare limited
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The corresponding logic here is that while rivals will use cyber operations against each other, the level of the cyber incident will be minimal and infrequent. Rivals learn to manage their relations with each other. There are periods of tension, escalation, and war, but by and large the modal outcome is tense cooperation rather than outright violence. Due to the dynamics of restraint, cyber powers will be limited in their use of cyber operations because of the consequences of such actions. Large-scale and devastating incidents will lead to retaliation and international condemnation. Reputation (Crescenzi 2007) concerns are important in international affairs, and the gains of a cyber operation are often not worth the risk of degrading the reputation of the initiating state. Cyber actions will degrade the standing of states because most states refrain from using the technology in the realm of foreign policy. Restraint dynamics straitjacket cyber states into constrained action in order to protect themselves from self-harm. Collateral damage on a civilian population will be punished with conventional means. Unleashing a virus on a command and control operation might seem like a logical and beneficial operation, but it renders a worm ready for dissection and replication right back to the offender. This leads to blowback, which can come in the cyber form but also occurs through conventional means. We argue that advanced cyber operations are a taboo not to be broken. They unleash consequences disproportionate to the benefits of launching cyber disputes. Simple cost-benefit analysis would dictate that cyber operations are going to be limited and constrained as the norms surrounding the issue make the use of the tactic a sacred violation. Targeting civilians is no longer allowed in the international system with the decline in the notion of sovereignty. Lower-level operations against the military are often unsuccessful as the target is protected and knows it will be the focus of action. Failure to protect the target is often the main reason for an infiltration in the first place. If an army is out in the open, exposed to the elements including aerial attack, bombardment, and attacks from the higher ground, do we blame the tactics used against them or the failures in leadership inherent in the target? Cyber operations are real and proliferating. Yet, they are mainly lower-level operations utilized to expose some real weakness in the target rather than a demonstration of the power of the initiating side.
Table 4.6 shows which methods are used for the initiating states’ objectives in international cyber conflict. The objectives of the initiators for cyber disputes are at an overall low to average severity level, with disruptions at an average of 1.39, espionage at 2.39, and attempts to change state behavior at 2. Advanced persistent threats (APTs) are the most severe methods, with an average score of 2.09 for espionage objectives and 2.73 for behavioral change objectives. Infiltrations are the second most severe, with an average of 1.85 for disruptions, 2.29 for espionage, and 2.67 for coercion. Intrusions are used primarily for espionage campaigns and are a favorite method of the Chinese, but have also been used as disruptions. For these methods we recorded an average severity score of 1.00, 1.85, and 3.00, respectively. DDoS methods register with less severe scores, at 1.06 for disruptions and 1.00 for behavioral change. Finally, vandalism records scores of 1.01 for disruptions and 1.00 when used as a tool of propaganda in attempts to change the policies of states. What is significant here is that none of these methods is above the severity level of three; thus our data show that cyber conflict is being waged at a manageable and overall low level. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 90). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
A2: Power Grid Attacks
Restraint means no significant attacks, such as on the power grid and nuclear infrastructure
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The suggestion has been that cyber methods of international disputes are proliferating and expanding. Kello (2013) argues that theories and empirical assessments of cyber conflict in international relations scholarship are lacking or underdeveloped. He notes that cyber conflict and its dynamics are “expanding the range of possible harm and outcomes between the concepts of war and peace— with important consequences for national and international security” (Kello 2013: 8). We challenge these assertions on both counts: international relations scholarship is deeply engaged in the cyber debate; and the cyber threat is not proliferating to the point where the conceptions of war and peace need to be altered and reconstructed. The operations of Stuxnet, Flame, Titan Rain, and Ghost Net are often given as examples of the increased usage of the tactic. The coming future should include and expand to the digital battlefield (Nye 2011). Each cyber incident is given a catchy name and is repeated breathlessly by the media. In reality, cyber methods appear to be empty and hollow, lacking the impact they are thought to be capable of, given the novelty of the tactic. 7 Here we elucidate a theory of cyber interactions focused on restraint as an operational process. Our ideas about cyber conflict are based on a complete theory of cyber interactions, as states learn to use cyber power as a new tactic. New tactics have a history of being enfranchised early in their life. Airpower, for example, was weaponized early in its history; nuclear weapons, however, were used against Japan, and the normative revulsion to these actions was so complete that usage again is considered unforgivable. Innocuous cyber tactics might be part of what Azar (1972) called the normal relations range for a rivalry. They may function as methods of signaling displeasure or discord to a rival. The surprising finding in relation to conventional wisdom could be that rivals will tolerate cyber combat operations if they do not cross a line that leads directly to the massive loss of life. This is why it is so important to account for the severity of the operation in a theoretical frame. Cyber actions are expected to occur and even to be tolerated, as long as total offensive operations are not conducted. By total offensive operations, we mean direct and malicious incidents that might lead to the destruction of the energy infrastructure of a state, or incidents meant to take control of army units or facilities. These options are off the table for states, since they will lead directly to war, collateral damage, and economic retaliation, which would then escalate the conflict beyond the control of the state leadership. Actors in cyberspace will therefore be restrained in their use of cyber weapons. As Nye (2011) notes, the vulnerabilities evident in the Internet make the tactic dangerous to utilize since a cyber method can be replicated right back against the initiator. A cyber worm can be examined and reproduced, then used to target the origin location (Farwell and Rohozinski 2011). Cyber weapons are not like conventional weapons; once used, they do not expire. Their life span can be unlimited if the code is altered in slight ways or if they escape the environment for which they were built. Stuxnet was launched in 2010, and in 2013 it was found in a Russian nuclear plant. 8 Methods used in one cyber incident can be developed further for the next incident with little cost to the initiating side. For these reasons, cyber weapons can be more dangerous than conventional weapons, but also for these reasons, cyber weapons are less likely to be utilized. No state wants to show its hand and expose its technology to outside sources. This is the current contention with Stuxnet, as while it was a powerful cyber incident, it also was set out into the wild, and others likely will utilize the weapon for their own ends. This same problem exists for zero day exploits (security flaws that are unknown) that are used by initiators in cyberspace. These sorts of vulnerabilities Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus cease to be weak points once they are used because the program operator now knows how the cyber method works and how to stop it. They are no longer zero day exploits since the vulnerability is usually patched at this point. Another factor contributing to restraint is collateral damage. States are now limited in offensive actions due to functional norms of limited harm against civilians. An example of this logic can be inferred from the 2003 US invasion of Iraq or the 2011 NATO operations against Libya. In 2003, Bush administration officials worried that the effects of cyber combat would not be limited to Iraq, but would instead create worldwide financial havoc, spreading across the Middle East to Europe, and perhaps back to the United States. 9 The United States restrained itself from initiating cyber methods against its rival (Valeriano 2013) during outright war, as the potential fallout of such operations would, through complex networks of interdependence, extend to civilians. In addition, the United States failed to use cyber tactics against Libya during the operation to support the National Transition Coalition forces, due to concerns about the civilian impact. 10 Of course, there could be other reasons that the United States failed to use cyber tactics, but the evidence clearly suggests that civilian harm was the primary concern.
Globalization is a process whereby states are more interconnected than in the past. The other fact about the current age of globalization is that these connections occur at a pace that sometimes can defy typical measurement. The speed of interactions makes vulnerabilities in systems more devastating because proliferation of errors and cyber incidents can happen quickly. While many fear this development, the corresponding result— restraint— keeps these worst-case inclinations from becoming a reality. 11 States tend to be to be responsible, despite protestations of recklessness. Cyber states are no more reckless than other states. The next form of restraint relates to the idea of collateral damage limiting cyber actions. We must also consider the role of norms in cyber interactions. Norms are shared standards of behavior. It has become increasingly clear that cyber operations are increasing, but only in terms of small-scale actions that have limited utility or damage potential. The real cyber actions that many warn against have not occurred. The longer this remains the case, the more likely it is that states will set up normative rules to govern cyber behaviors. This could include institutional restraints, international consultations, or legal standards. For now, however, we can only really observe functional restraints to cyber actions. As will be explored in more detail in Chapter 8, cyber actions are a sacred taboo that must not be violated. There remain red lines that no one has yet crossed. There is a chance they will be crossed, but for now we have observed states being limited in cyber actions. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 63). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Countries deterred from destroying the power grid
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It would be useful to summarize our theory of rivalry interactions in cyberspace before we proceed with our analysis. In terms of conflict operations, the attractiveness of the target in relation to the capability used is a critical equation that is rarely examined. What good would a cyber conflict between rivals be if it does little physical and psychological damage to a rival state? Much is made about the secret nature of cyber operations, yet we know very little about the impact of basic operations on foreign policy dynamics. The value of the tactic seems minimal when one thinks of the potential devastation that can arise from direct attacks between states. At the extreme end, a large-scale operation that might wipe out the United States’ Eastern Seaboard Power Grid would be catastrophic, but it would likely be punished with immense retaliation and is thus not a realistic option short of total war. We are then left with minor incidents that are basically speculative ones, with few operations resulting in considerable damage. Restraint exists in the realm of cyber conflict, and we have covered this issue in Chapter 3. Rid (2011, 2013) argues that cyberwar in the extreme sense that death will result has not yet occurred, and is unlikely to occur. Likewise, Gartzke (2013) develops the logic for cyberwar being utilized by states as a low-level form of conflict. We (2013) concluded, in an examination of Russian foreign policy, that cyber conflict was literally the least and the easiest option Russia could have used to infiltrate Estonia during their dust-up in 2007. We also contend that cyber interactions will take a regional tone in that rivals typically are constricted to regional interactions. Restraint plays a critical role in the cyber realm. Derived from Schelling’s analysis that military strength can be used as coercion, deterrence theory has heavily influenced post-atomic foreign policy (Schelling 1966). Instead of risking engagement in direct conflict, great powers developed nuclear arsenals to prevent attack from other states. Jervis explains this buildup for deterrence as an extension of diplomacy, where expressions of force are communicated between sides to deter moves rather than using overt force (Jervis 1979, 1989). States are effectively trying to avoid a conflict spiral and a never-ending situation of continuous threats by making severe threats. Comprehensive restraint relates to deterrence from spectacular attacks such as nuclear weapons or devastating Internet operations focused at power systems and health services. States are restrained from such action through fears of retaliation and escalation of the conflict beyond control, even during rivalries. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 80). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
A2: China Scenario
When China engages in cyber attacks, the US responds with diplomacy to de-scalate
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Armed Forces & Society, The Impact of Cyber Conflict on International Relations, p. 2-3
Based on our results, we find that only one method of cyber malice, distributed denial of service (DDoS), affects conflict–cooperation dynamics between states. The effect is a souring of relations between pairs of states when DDoS tactics are utilized as a foreign policy tool. We also find that regional powers and dyads containing the United States have important conflict–cooperation effects when cyber incidents are involved. The latter effects are all negative, except for one pair of states, the United States and China. When China uses cyber conflict directed toward the United States, the United States will respond with diplomacy and try to improve relations with the rising power. These results challenge the typical conventional wisdom proposed by pundits and academics suggesting that cyber interactions are a revolutionary new way of conducting interstate interactions.
China engages in espionage, but not cyber war
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We see this cyber-dominated espionage process at work in China. While the Chinese are active in cyberspace and have their own offensive cyber command, in reality they have used cyber incidents minimally, usually for espionage rather than outright cyber warfare. In response to negative articles about the premier of China, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese launched a series of denial of service incidents and phishing methods against the New York Times and the Washington Post. Some New York Times’ employees’ computers, passwords, and e-mail accounts were infiltrated. The media outlet had been the victim of these incidents for at least four months until security experts were able to finally shut down these phishing attempts. More interesting is that the New York Times and its security firm traced the incidents to a Chinese government operation known as Unit 61,398, which is part of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Staff Department, an entity that has been troubling government and private networks in the United States for years. 14 While disconcerting, these cyber incidents failed to reach the extreme levels that most prognosticators suggest when they analyze cyber interactions. Instead of destroying American media operations, they have only sought to disrupt, punish, and steal information from those they feel prompted the aggression. There is a cause, a means, and a will displayed during these interactions, but the outcome is purely a demonstration of capabilities that fall in the category of espionage. Beyond the theoretical gap we have outlined, there is also a gap in the literature developing an explanation for why cyber espionage is used between states or state-based targets. Cyber intelligence operations are proliferating, but at a low level, mainly in the area of espionage, where the goal is to either steal, harass, or make known the ability to penetrate networks. Rid (2013: 82) suggests that most cyber activities we see are really espionage efforts. Considering this process, why then would states utilize cyber espionage operations over full-scale cyber offensive operations? What sort of defensive intelligence mechanisms does the United States have for thwarting or launching cyber espionage campaigns? To develop the logic behind this process, we must understand the intention of cyber operators in the system. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (pp. 67-68). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
China and Russia not escalating cyber war
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The first connection between cyber abilities and actions is the observation that states do literally the least they can do in the cybersphere. The point for a state-supported cyber operation seems to be to demonstrate capabilities, rather than destroy systems and operations— extreme incidents such as Stuxnet and Flame excluded. It is as if the initiators only want to make their existence and capabilities known. As with conventional deterrence policies, actions and responses are only effective if they are communicated to the target. China and Russia have achieved this goal in their cyber operations. They have made known their capabilities and reach, and then have chosen to go no further. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 68). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
No significant impact to Chinese theft
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The most significant cyber disputes are ones that either severely damage states’ strategic plans or are attempts to steal sensitive state and military secrets. Stuxnet, Flame, Gauss, and Duqu are all incidents that were part of the larger “Olympic Games” nuclear program dispute that was launched against Iran in order to discourage the Iranians from continuing their nuclear program. This is the only significant cyber dispute to have attempted to alter a state’s behavior. We found similar incidents to be scarce in our data, which indicates that cyber tactics are usually only used to steal from or cause minor disruptions to an enemy. The Chinese theft of the F-35 plans is a good example from the years-long Chinese theft operations against the United States. While traumatic to the country and military establishment, these events are by no means critical in terms of severity or impact. Stuxnet and Flame may have set back the Iranian nuclear weapons program, yet most estimates suggest that the recovery time was a few months to three years (Sanger 2012). While the Chinese may have stolen advanced jet plans, they have yet to develop the capabilities necessary to replicate American technology at a level capable of supplying its troops with steady weaponry, particularly jet engines. Far more devastation would result from the potential Chinese theft of stealth helicopter technology in relation to the Bin Laden assassination raid in 2011 and the capture in 2001 of signals from an intelligence plane (the Hainan Island incident). Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (pp. 94-95). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
A2: Economy/New York Times
No empricial support for the New York Time’s economy claim
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The New York Times reported, “a major cyberattack on the United States could cripple the country’s infrastructure and economy, and . . . such attacks now pose the most dangerous immediate threat to the United States, even more pressing than an attack by global terrorist networks.” 4 While empirics do not match this rhetoric, the statement was still made in the major US daily newspaper, and it was taken as a fact. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 190). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
A2: Russia
Russia has aggressive cyber capabilities but does not use them
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One important observation from the analysis of this data is that there has only been one cyber dispute that accompanied a conventional armed conflict. Several vandalism and DDoS incidents disrupted government and telecommunications companies in the tiny state of Georgia during its five-day conflict with Russia. These incidents were not part of any military strategy; rather, they were propagandist messages and disruptive measures utilized to instill fear and confusion in the Georgian government and population. As noted in Chapter 2, Russia is one of the most cyber-capable states on the globe; therefore Russian restraint, even during a military campaign, is evident given the lack of severity of their incidents. Thus no state has opted to open the Pandora’s box of escalated cyber conflict during conventional military campaigns. Opportunities are replete: the Iraq War of 2003, the NATO Libya campaign, and possibly Syria, if international intervention is ever initiated, are all examples. We have observed evidence for cyber restraint even among the most capable states in the international system. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 95). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Empirically denied and ineffective for Russia
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That restraint exists in the realm of cyber conflict is an idea few seem ready to engage. Some have begun to make this point in various forums. Rid (2011, 2013) argues that cyber war in the extreme sense that death will result has not yet occurred, and is unlikely to occur. “Cyber war has never happened in the past, it does not occur in the present, and it is highly unlikely that it will disturb our future” (Rid 2013: xiv). Likewise, Gartzke (2013) develops the logic for cyber war being utilized by states as a low-level form of conflict. We (2014) have made this point in our research on Russian foreign policy, which argues that cyber conflict is literally the least damaging and easiest option that Russia could use to retaliate against Estonia during their dust-up in 2007. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 41). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
A2: Cyber Arms Race
Cyber arms race claims are just conjecture
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According to the cyber prognosticators, cyber weapons are no different. Rapid increases in cyber technology will make it easier, cheaper, and more likely that states will utilize these technologies because there is a reduced cost and a psychological aspect of wanting to leverage new weapons to new situations. When applied to cyber conflict, all these factors are still dubious and afflicted with conjecture. At best, they are guesses, open to empirical and theoretical investigation. It is unclear whether or not weapons technology developed in this area will be used in other arenas. Actually, due to the connection to the civilian sphere, it seems less likely that these technologies will be used. Even Clarke and Knake (2010) frequently note the difficulty in applying cyber tactics against terrorists in the banking sector. It is unclear why a state that is restricted in the real world by norms and institutions will suddenly have a free hand to act in the hypothetical-future world. This is the conjecture most writers make in this area, and it is perplexing. It is not even clear that we are in an era of cyber arms races, given that there has yet to be a study that quantifies the buildup of cyber weapons in the framing of military buildups. Just because a weapon is available does not mean it will be used. It must be remembered that states must have a reason for conflict for operations to break out (Mansbach and Vasquez 1981). Even the worst offenders in international history had demands and revisionist claims that motivated action. The cyber world will be no different; issues will continue to matter, and weapons will be used in a clear context, not just because a state has them. Finally, it is unclear if conflicts in expected areas will actually develop. There are vigorous debates as to whether there really will be future conflict with China. Some, like Valeriano and Vasquez (2011), argue that there is no set course for major power conflict. Certainly, there will be cyber conflicts between states already fighting, like India and Pakistan, and Russia and its former vassal states, but it is unclear if other global powers will use the technology in combat. Choucri (2012) uses Lateral Pressure theory (see Choucri and North 1975) to develop logic for when actors will seek change in the international system. The model is based on a configuration of variables that include population, resources, and technology that will push states to expand beyond their boundaries. There needs to be a proper configuration in place to propel states toward cyber conflict. 17 This effort to articulate a clear theory of cyber action is one of the few in the field. We hope to push further in this volume. Using a rationalist and bargaining (Bueno de Mesquita 1981; Snidal 1985; Fearon 1995; Powell 1999) framework would lead others to suggest that cyber war between states, where cyber conflict functions like war, will not occur. As Gartzke (2013: 1) notes, “put another way, advocates have yet to work out how cyber war actually accomplishes the objectives that typically sponsor terrestrial military violence. Absent logic of consequences, it is difficult to believe that cyber war will prove as devastating for world affairs and for developed nations in particular as many seem to believe.” Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 39). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
No significant threat from state and non-state actors
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Furthermore, there is a danger in equivocating the threat that comes from non-state cyber individuals and the threats that come from state-affiliated cyber actors not directly employed by governments. If the discourse is correct, non-state entities such as terrorist organizations or political activist groups should be actively using these malicious tactics in cyberspace in order to promote their goals of fear and awareness of their plight. If the goal is to spread fear and instability among the perceived enemies of this group, and cyber tactics are the most effective way to do this, we should see these tactics perpetrated— and perpetrated often— by these entities. This book examines how state-affiliated non-state actors use cyber power and finds that their actual capabilities to do physical harm via cyberspace are quite limited. This then leaves rogue actors as the dangerous foes in the cyber arena. While these individuals can be destructive, their power in no way compares to the resources, abilities, and capabilities of cyber power connected to traditional states. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 4). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Ext - -No China Escalation
US publicly aggressive towards China in the face of attack, but is quietly diplomatic
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Armed Forces & Society, The Impact of Cyber Conflict on International Relations, p. 16
Most interesting for the findings in this controlled-group analysis are the statistically significant responses from the United States after it is the victim of a cyber incident. With the exception of China, the United States responds negatively and coercively to all of its rivals if it is the victim of cyber conflict. When the United States is the victim of cyber conflict originating from China, this evokes cooperative responses from the American foreign policy regime. It must be noted that these are public reactions captured by the events data dependent variables. Behind closed doors, therefore, the US reaction to intrusions by China in its secure networks could be quite different. Regardless, our focus on public events and the results seem counterintuitive due to all of the publically negative reports from cybersecurity firms about Chinese aggression in cyberspace.
The three most powerful cyber states, the United States, Russia, and China have been in talks about norms in cyberspace.50 This is where the more cooperative scores between the United States and China are most likely being generated. However, since 2011, relations between the United States and Russia have been steadily spiraling downward, and domestic actions by the US Congress and Department of Justice have led to the indictment of five People’s Liberation Army members with charges of espionage and theft.51 The progress made on the development of cyber norms as well as the cordial responses from the United States when the victim of Chinese cyber malice, therefore, may be a thing of the past.
Ext – China Just Engages in Espionage
China just stealing
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The Chinese are the most active initiator (41 incidents) of all the countries that engage in cyber conflict. This may be interpreted as China being a major cyber aggressor, and this interpretation may be part of the upswing in perceived severity and fear of cyber conflict that has infiltrated popular media outlets. However, the majority of cyber incidents and disputes that China has initiated during the time period analyzed are theft operations. As hypothesized in Chapter 3, China engages in cyber espionage because it is the least it can do without outright provocation of its more powerful competitor, the United States. China is a rising power not only in East Asia, but globally. It must be wary of its power projection with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan regionally and with the United States globally. It seems that it has found its outlet in cyberspace, as the data presented here show that China is by far the most active user of cyber tactics among the world’s rivals. More on the reactions to cyber incidents and disputes from the target states of China will be discussed in the next chapter.
A2: Great Power War
Cyber attacks amongst great powers actually increase cooperation and improve relations
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Armed Forces & Society, The Impact of Cyber Conflict on International Relations, p. 18
Most cyber incidents are allowed to occur without any significant response from the victim. In fact, incidents between great powers like the United States and China actually result in positive relations rather than further degenerative interactions. The reason for this is likely because cyber incidents fall below the normal range of operations. They generally are silent and focused methods meant to not upset the delicate balance of relations between competing rival states. When China infiltrates the United States, the United States responds diplomatically without further cyber operations. The future could be different, but for now, powers have learned to manage relationships even during constant and harmful cyber operations. We believe that the United States is restraining itself from reacting in a negative manner with China so as not to escalate cyber conflict to the doomsday levels many pundits and academics say is inevitable.
A2: Asian Cyber Conflict
Japan reacts cooperatively to cyber attacks
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Armed Forces & Society, The Impact of Cyber Conflict on International Relations, p. 16
The last groups of dyads that have statistically significant reactions to cyber incidents are regional. Israel–Lebanon, China–India, and India–China all produce negative foreign policy reactions to cyber incidents. One state, Japan, reacts to cyber incidents with more cooperative interactions with their regional rivals. When South Korea and China send the botnets to Japan, the Japanese governments will respond with an olive branch. It seems that Japan does not want to escalate cyber conflict with its growing East Asian competitors.
Ext – General Extensions
Technology limitations and fear of self-harm limit cyber attacks
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We argue that the use of the theoretical idea of deterrence in the cyber realm is a misapplication of deterrence theory. Lawson (2012: 2) suggests that the use of the term deterrence in the cyber realm could be dangerous: “the war metaphor and nuclear deterrence analogy are neither natural nor inevitable and that abandoning them would open up new possibilities for thinking more productively about the full spectrum of cyber security challenges, including the as yet unrealized possibility of cyber war.” Different motives, centered on the concept of restraint, provide a more accurate reading of cyber outcomes and processes. Furthermore, restraint is the policy outcome but not necessarily a process; we need other ideas and terms to describe the policy process of states limiting responses and uses of cyber conflict in reality. The term cyber straitjacketing seems to be the most applicable, in that cyber powers are prevented from taking extreme cyber actions due to the confines of the technology and also to prevent self-harm. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 54). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Ext – No Impact
Any cyber operation will be limited in severity
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Cyber interactions will be minimal according to observed tendencies. It must be remembered that we are not predicting a complete absence of cyber operations, but a limited occurrence of the technology in light of the constraints on its usage. We argue that the non-usage of cyber operations might be a developing norm and taboo. This would suggest that it might be useful to look at norm cascades and locate the usage of developing technologies of war in this context. In the process of a norm cascade, entrepreneurs develop an idea, and this idea then spreads to over one-third of the population, which marks a tipping point when the idea becomes part of the normal process of interactions (Finnemore and Sikkink 1998: 901). We follow this path and assert a cyber usage norm tipping point, suggesting that if fewer than one-third of highly active and contentious rivals utilize cyber operations, then the technology has not proliferated and will not at this time. It is even more stark if we remember that rivals are a sample of an entire population, so the real one-third bar should be on all states; but for our purposes, observing fewer than 33 percent of the rival population engaging in the usage of cyber events would be clear evidence that even the most contentious states do not use cyber technology in foreign affairs. Following hypothesis one, we also argue that cyber operations will be limited in severity when they do occur. States are restrained from using the technology in the first place, but this prior hypothesis does not predict the complete non-use of the technology, just that the technology will be used at a low rate. The follow-up question is how severe will the cyber tactics that do occur be? In Chapter 4 we spell out our severity scale and an explanation for the levels of cyber violence in an elaborate way. Being especially mindful of the constraint of collateral damage, we should see evidence that the cyber operations and incidents that do occur will be relatively low-level operations to exploit obvious weaknesses. We equate this process not so much with the will of the offender, but the flaws in the target. If a state infiltrates another state in cyberspace, it is often due to the obvious weaknesses in the target’s defenses. Libicki (2009) makes the point that cyber disputes happen because systems have flaws. Cyber offensive operations are dangerous and could lead to conventional escalation, but more pressing is the need for coordinated efforts to shore up the defense around critical systems and technologies. Flaws and weaknesses in systems and software must be the first step to prevent cyber operations. For now, the outcome is that flaws in the system will lead to low-level cyber actions. Much more severe incidents will be prevented because of the consequences of such incidents and the fact that such weaknesses are likely to be sealed up in the target state. Rivals have the means and the motive to infiltrate states in cyberspace, yet they generally fail to do so, even with demonstrated weaknesses in the targets. When they do, they do not escalate the conflict by using drastic methods that lead to the loss of life. The idea of a cyber Pearl Harbor is a constructed threat generated by artificial fears. The goal should be to never present the opportunity for a Pearl Harbor– level incident to occur in the first place. 17 Due to the threat of retaliation and the ready possibility of actual direct combat if cyber incidents are utilized, cyber operations will be limited in the international sphere. When cyber incidents are exhibited, offensive states will choose tactics that are easily hidden and free of direct responsibility. To reiterate, the damage done will be limited and mainly will be focused on low-level operations that result in minimal impacts. These hypotheses fly directly counter to popular wisdom on the persuasiveness of cyber combat. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 73). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
At best, trivial cyber conflicts
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Clarke and Knake (2010: 30– 31) take the perspective that we have not yet seen what can really be done in cyberspace. What have been exhibited so far have been primitive cyber incidents. Yet, as Reveron (2012b: 230) notes, “just because we can imagine cyber war does not mean that it can be waged.” This leaves us a lot of room to theorize and engage the question of the future of cyber conflict. There are two clear extremes. In one, cyber conflict will happen and will become a regular aspect of international relations. The other extreme is that cyber conflict will not occur and will be safe in a digital future— a frame some might call cyber skepticism. There is a clear middle path that has yet to be developed, and we will argue this for the rest of this book. This approach can be framed as cyber moderation. Cyber conflict will occur, but the conflicts themselves will be trivial, will not result in a change in behavior in the target, and will largely be regional cyber incidents connected to traditional international issues at stake between states. This leads us to question the direction of the future uses of the tactic. We argue for the examination of the real sources of disagreements between states that might drive the cyber conflict we observe in the system. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 40). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Conventional war and sanctions have much greater impact
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The next question relates to how cyber tactics are perceived by the enemy and what the foreign policy impact of such disputes could be. Cyber conflicts in the international system could potentially destroy command and control structures of the military and foreign policy apparatus, wipe out the media communications of a state, destroy financial memory and wage economic combat, target the health industry and hospitals, or wither the ability of domestic units to protect the citizenry by eliminating technology used by police. However, all these impacts are purely speculative. 19 The real utility in cyber conflict seems to be much more muted than many pundits believe. Information and money can be stolen, confusion and chaos can ensue through the activation of computer viruses; but these outcomes fail to compare to damage done by large-scale military options or even economic sanctions. The events of 9/ 11 have more “shock value” than stealing secrets from the Pentagon. Since most military networks are decentralized, the installation and implementation of effective malware is a difficult if not impossible proposition. For example, the Stuxnet worm that hit the Iranian nuclear program had to be planted from the inside with traditional intelligence operatives or through an outwitted Iranian employee. Even the new advanced chip that the National Security Agency (NSA) has developed to hack into systems first has to be implanted in the system to make the transmitter work. 20 Most people overestimate a hacker’s ability to carry out large-scale infiltrations; these operations are rarely successful without major failings in the security of the target. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 41). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
The most common attack is denial of service and there is no impact to those attacks
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We also utilize our collected data (Chapter 5) to uncover the reactions that cyber conflicts provoke between states in the foreign policy realm. Surprisingly, our results demonstrate that the primary tactic evoking conflictual foreign policy responses from victimized states is the relatively benign distributed denial of service (DDoS) cyber method, which will be explained in more detail in the following chapters. 15 This is unexpected because the long-term damage done by these types of cyber incidents is minor to nonexistent. Furthermore, incidents and disputes launched by states where the goal is to attempt to change the national security strategy of the target state will also lead to negative foreign policy responses. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (pp. 8-9). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Any cyber attacks have not been severe
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Furthermore, out of a severity scale from one to five, with five being the most severe, the highest recorded score for a cyber incident between rivals is three, which equates to a targeted operation on a state’s national security strategy. In fact, there are only 14 examples of incidents that reach a severity ranking of three in our data. These incidents usually involve targeting military operations, such as sabotage of a nuclear weapons program or stealing stealth jet plans. This indicates that cyber conflict has remained at a low level for the past decade, and although the frequency of cyber incidents and disputes has increased over time, the severity level has remained constant and at a low level. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 8). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Empirical evidence proves the cyber threat is hyped, hyping it risks war
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In this project we examine interactions among interstate rivals, the most contentious pairs of states in the international system. The animosity between rivals often builds for centuries, to the point where a rival state is willing to harm itself in order to harm its rival even more (Valeriano 2013). If the cyber world is truly dangerous, we would see evidence of these disruptions among rival states with devastating effect. Rivals fight the majority of wars, conflicts, and disputes (Diehl and Goertz 2000), yet the evidence presented here demonstrates that the cyber threat is restrained at this point. 6 Overstating the threat is dangerous because the response could then end up being the actual cause of more conflict. Reactions to threats must be proportional to the nature of the threat in the first place. Otherwise the threat takes on a life of its own and becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of all-out cyber warfare. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 3). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Deterrence prevents large attacks
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In terms of conflict operations, the attractiveness of the target in relation to the capability used is a critical equation rarely examined. What good would a cyber conflict between rivals be if it does little physical or psychological damage to a rival state? The focus of rivalry is to punish or burn the other side (Valeriano 2013); it is unclear if cyber tactics can achieve this. Furthermore, if a cyber incident takes a long time to have an impact, and might only impact a limited number of targets that only a few leaders know about, what good is the use of the tactic? Much is made about the secret nature of cyber operations, yet the paradox is that we would then know very little about the impact of covert operations of foreign policy dynamics. The value of the tactic seems minimal when one thinks of the potential for direct attack between states. On the extreme end, a large-scale operation that might wipe out the United States’ Eastern Seaboard Power Grid would be catastrophic, but it would also be punished with immense retaliation. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 41). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Deterrence means restraint
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In summary, little is known about the actual impact of cyber tactics. Much speculation has been made with little connection to the realities that are discernible. The risk to the initiator in relation to the impact of cyber tactics does not make the use of cyber strategies a very optimal option in the international system. Restraint will dominate, since the costs are potentially so high, even with the inclusion of non-state actors acting as proxies. This leaves us to further outline our theory of cyber restraint and regionalism as we move to the empirical study of conflict. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 41). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Ext – No Escalation
Cyber conflict is rare and does not escalate
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In this volume we present evidence that suggests that cyber incidents and disputes between states are seldom-used tactics that have not escalated to the possible doomsday propositions that many cyber security companies, pundits, and popular media outlets would have us believe. 14 We also present no evidence of cyber conflict escalating to more severe tactics anytime in the near future, although it is possible that this may happen (Valeriano and Maness 2012). In this book we explain and develop the logic for the current dynamics of cyber conflict. We also investigate the myths and suggestions brought on by what are deemed the most destructive cyber incidents that have occurred so far. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 8). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Conflicts are diffused
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Related to restraint, the process of conflict diffusion can also hinder efforts to utilize cyber technologies. As Fielder (2013: 2) notes, “during a cyber conflict, unregulated actions of third parties have the potential of unintentionally affecting U.S. cyber security policy, including cyber neutrality.” The fear is that cyber conflicts can drag in unanticipated third parties, active external parties spoiling for an excuse to fight, or drag in parties seeking to remain removed from the conflict. The danger of cyber conflict is that it is so uncontrolled and undetermined; the consequences are often unclear, making battlefield calculations difficult. Thus, in order to keep a conflict from proliferating, parties will once again be restrained from using cyber actions. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 63). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Ext – Won’t Use Because We Fear Others Will Get
The most effective cyber weapons will not be used because then others can get them
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Instead of taking the extreme and using it to justify the analysis, we must do more if we are covering the true scope of cyber interactions globally. It is critical and important to describe the shape of international cyber relations by examining the typical, the average, or the common cyber conflicts, and the failures demonstrated by those who utilize cyber tactics. One of the most interesting cyber operations has been dubbed Flambé. A variant of the Flame virus, it is likely that cyber specialists utilized and repurposed the code of the Flame incident (that had plagued Iranian networks) for their own ends. 16 In May 2012, computers in the office of former French President Nicolas Sarkozy displayed evidence of malware. According to the French Press, “the attackers were able to get to the heart of French political power, harvesting the computers of close advisers of Nicolas Sarkozy and obtaining ‘secret notes’ and ‘strategic plans.’” 17 What is interesting is not the actual operation, but the method of the incident, as well as the weaknesses that were revealed. For one, the fact that the hackers utilized the basics of the Flame code demonstrates a typical problem with cyber weapons: once used and let out into the wild, anyone and everyone can then use them for their own ends. Weapons developed over years at vast expense can now be used by one’s enemies to harm an ally. Due to this problem, is it therefore difficult to argue that major cyber weapons will not be released into cyberspace, which is public, because of how they may be used by others. In short, cyber weapons are not private and are challenging to contain, especially if the target does little to prevent the cyber incident. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 11). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
States that initiate cyber attacks could have their own cyber infrastructure destroyed
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Low-level cyber tactics might be part of what Azar (1972) calls the normal relations range for a rivalry. The surprising finding in relation to conventional wisdom could be that rivals will tolerate cyber combat operations if they do not cross a line that leads directly to the massive loss of life. Cyber conflict is expected to occur and is even tolerated as long as total offensive operations are not conducted. By total offensive operations, we mean direct cyber incidents that might lead to the destruction of the energy infrastructure of a state, or infiltrations meant to take control of army units or facilities. These options are off the table for rivals since they will lead directly to war, collateral damage, and economic retaliation. As Nye (2011a) notes, the vulnerabilities evident on the Internet make the tactic dangerous to use because a cyber incident can be easily replicated and sent back to the initiator in kind. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 80). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
States don’t launch cyber attacks because they fear collateral damage
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The other factor contributing to restraint is collateral damage. States are now limited in offensive actions due to function norms of limited harm against civilians. An example of this logic can be inferred from the 2003 US invasion of Iraq or the 2011 operations against Libya. In 2003, Bush administration officials worried that the effects of cyber combat would not be limited to Iraq but would instead create worldwide financial havoc, spreading across the Middle East to Europe and perhaps to the United States. 1 The United States was restrained from launching cyber operations against its rival during outright war. The potential fallout of such operations through the complex networks of interdependence would extend to civilians. There simply was not enough time to plan operations that would restrict the damage done to military targets. Economic and civilian harm are devastating to interdependent networks, and thus these moves should be avoided. In addition, the United States failed to use cyber tactics against Libya during the operation to support the National Transition Coalition forces due to concerns about the civilian impact. 2 Introduced in Chapter 3, there are two hypotheses in relation to cyber conflict. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 80). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Ext – Cyber Security Firms Exaggerate
Cybersecurity firms exaggerate the threat
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The corresponding issue is that the debate on the nature of cyber conflict is often led by— and benefits— self-interested Internet security firms. They have an interest in the escalation of cyber fear and the creation of a cyber weapons industrial complex. Fear has been good for business, as “the global cyber security industry is expected to grow an additional $ 7.2 billion in the next four years, according to projections.” 23 Academics, scholars, and policymakers must recognize this and come to their own conclusions as to whether or not this hype is warranted. To truly understand the nature of cyber conflict, we must be able to analyze, predict, and explain how cyber incidents do occur, why, and by whom. In skipping this step, the foreign policy community has done a disservice to the international community, as they have skipped the step of examining the problem and have gone straight to the policy advice stage of the process. It is our goal to explain the actual nature of cyber conflict in the modern world in order to return debate on the issue to a more rational and considered perspective. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 12). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Ext – Worst Case Scenarios
Impacts are based on worst case scenarios that should be rejected
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Dunn-Cavelty (2008: 1) suggests that the growing perceptions of fear among governments and policymakers only exacerbate cyber threats. “Confusion and misinformation,” as Singer and Friedman (2014: 7) note, drive the fear motifs that pervade discussions about cyber interactions. These processes are propped up by worst-case scenario narratives of what could happen if cyber conflict were to reach its full potential and shut down power grids, launch intercontinental missiles, and cause a major breakdown in international order. These threat perceptions in popular discourse will then lead to policy changes, and with policy changes come lucrative cyber security contracts with governments to ensure the safety of the public. This in turn will keep the threat levels high as long as these security contracts are renewable (Dunn-Cavelty 2008). Our work supports these ideas, but more important, demonstrates empirically that the cyber threat is inflated. Perceptions are the key; if a state operates under this system of cyber fear, offensive action is surely warranted since it is perceived to be the natural response and the most effective method of ensuring security in the digital world. Yet this is the antiquated power politics path long since discredited in world politics (Vasquez 1999). In this context, we buy into the myth that our enemies are real, and are even more dangerous if they operate under the fog of cyberspace. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 15). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Empirically, worst case scenarios do not occur
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Analyst Bruce Schneider has written exhaustively on worst-case thinking about cyber conflict. He points out that such conjecture involves imagining the worst possible outcome and then acting as if it were a certainty. “It substitutes imagination for thinking, speculation for risk analysis, and fear for reason.” 3 What is interesting is that cyber rivals should be the sorts of actors who use cyber technologies the most if these worst-case prognostications are true, yet preliminary investigations tell us that this is not the case; actions tend to be reserved in cyberspace. So what dictates how rivals will interact in cyberspace? Our theory of cyber interactions stakes out a clear position to start, and we argue that restraint and regionalism dominate. We do not hypothesize that the worst-case actions will be the result of cyber interactions, rather that the norm should follow the current pattern of limited use of cyber technologies on the foreign policy battlefield. We could theorize that rivals will use cyber conflict extensively against their enemies because it fits a pattern of interactions governed by hatred. We could then also highlight a few spectacular examples of cyber conflict. Our theory, however, is counterintuitive to this logic, and macro-evidence supports this notion. Scholarship grounded in deterrence theory is where we develop our argument about why cyber conflict is relatively absent among rivals. Instead of deterrence, we argue that restraint characterizes cyber relationships. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 54). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Ext – Just Espionage
Cyber espionage keeps cyber conflict low level
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It is in this context that we will observe states using cyber technologies in the realm of espionage and terrorism in order to catch up to their more powerful rivals. These mechanisms motivate the behavior that some find abhorrent. The likely result is more conflict and disagreements, yet the idea still dictates how states will operate. To catch up to an enemy, covert cyber operations will be utilized. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 75). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Ext – No State-Sponsored Cyber Terror
No real evidence of state-sponsored cyber terror
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In our data, there is also very little evidence of state-supported or sponsored groups utilizing cyber terrorism. In total, we have six incidents listed in Table 4.11. The incidents that are listed are very low in severity and impact, all scoring a one. All cyber state-terrorist incidents were defacements and hit government non-military networks. The Lebanon-Israel and Iran-Israel incidents occurred in response to the border clashes between Hezbollah and the Israeli military and also in response to Israeli policy in the Palestinian regions, where Hezbollah defaced Israeli websites in response to settlement expansion or airstrikes in Gaza. These incidents were all propaganda attempts, and Israeli websites were back online in a matter of hours. The lone Pakistan-India cyber state-terrorist incident involved a Pakistani Muslim fundamentalist party hacking India’s Criminal Investigation Department in response to the ongoing violence in the disputed region of Kashmir. This propagandized vandalism incident was swiftly contained.
One of the main goals of terrorists and the operations that they carry out against states is to instill fear in the population and create a shock value that, in the end, will change a state’s policy toward a certain sect of society or that state’s foreign policy. Cyber tactics do not have the same shock value in comparison to suicide bombings in a public square or the hijacking of aircraft. Furthermore, as large amounts of funding are needed to pull off the more complicated and malicious cyber incidents, terrorists and the states that fund their operations are better off funding the more conventional and more eye-opening terrorist tactics that have been seen in recent times in Mumbai, New York, and Moscow. Therefore, cyber state-terrorism is something that is not going to be a part of many terrorist networks’ arsenal any time soon. We will examine this topic more in Chapter 7. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 102). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Ext – No Cyber Terror
Cyber terrorists not effective, cyber war not used in conflict, they risk a self-fulfilling prophecy
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Frames that suggest massive changes to the system are largely inaccurate. We have failed to see cyberwar really proliferate in the decades since the ubiquity of digital communications. Russia has failed to use the tactic in Ukraine and Crimea, even after using it liberally, if in a restrained manner, during the Georgia invasion of 2008 and in Estonia in 2007. The United States rejected the widespread use of cyber tactics in Iraq (2003), Afghanistan (2002), and Libya (2011). Cyber terrorists and non-state actors use the tactic, but with little actual impact. Cyber technologies have changed our daily lives, but to argue that they have and will change our foreign policy and military strategy is too easy a claim and very difficult to prove wrong when articulated with unlimited time horizons. Taking a new weapon and arguing that it will change the world is a simple case to make; taking a new weapon and suggesting it is just more of the same, like ancient espionage practices, is difficult. In fact, it is important to take this position because arguing for the coming cyber threat risks provoking escalation and conflict. The frame becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy because the idea is so simple; people believe it to be true because it seems logical. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (Kindle Locations 75-83). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Restraint in cyber space, conflicts are regional, cyberterrorism is limited
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In this book, we make strong predictions about the future, using evidence from the recent past to outline the course of cyber conflict between states. We argue here that there is restraint in cyberspace, that cyber interactions are mainly regional on the international level, and that cyber terrorism is a limited tactic that will not change the course of international interactions. We make these predictions based on a large dataset of cyber interactions, and we use this data to test our theories. Finally, we outline the course of our possible cyber future. This is a future where offensive cyber actions are taboo and, hopefully, international institutions rise up to limit the dangers this domain might pose. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (Kindle Locations 86-91). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Cyber attacks not a threat to Israel
The cyber incidents by non-state cyber groups have flooded Israel, but have not done real apparent damage to the state of Israel. The typical routines of the Israeli government and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have not changed. The cyber operations launched against Israel only provoked a counteroffensive from Israel, and their operatives have gone right back at the pro-Gaza cyber community, sometimes with devastating effects. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 168). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
No impact to cyber attacks on Israel
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Yet we must remain cautious, as a Global Post report notes: “officials in Israel said that there have been up to 44 million cyber attacks on government websites since the beginning of the military campaign in Gaza.” 16 The initial wave of incidents was prevented, with the exception of two incidents on the Israeli Philippine Embassy and an Israeli private defense contractor. A second wave, launched by the group Anonymous, succeeded in defacement and shutdowns of various networks, including that of the Bank of Jerusalem. 17 Some Israeli.gov sites went down the weekend of December 8– 9, 2012, but were restored by the following Monday. Other defaced webpages included the Facebook page and Twitter account of the Vice Prime Minister of Israel (see Figure 7.1). Thousands of website passwords were released, but it is unclear how much of an impact these actions had since passwords can be changed or recovered.
The impact on the multiple targets in Israel, therefore, was minimal. Any networks that were infiltrated by a Cyber Gaza hacker were restored within a matter of minutes, hours, or days. Most of the attempts were successfully contained or deflected by Israel’s cyber defenses. It was the peace agreement on November 21, brokered by the UN, the United States, and Egypt, that stopped the violence— not the actions of the hackers involved in the Cyber Gaza campaign. Diplomatic solutions were the answer to brokering peace, but the cyber actions used during this campaign did little to nothing in deciding the outcome of the dispute in November 2012. Most of these attempted breaches were blocked by Israeli cyber security, and those that did slip by were low-level defacement or denial of service methods that lasted mere minutes to hours. Therefore, although the breadth and scope of the Cyber Gaza campaign was impressive, the actual impact on the target, the Israeli government and military networks, was quite minimal. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 171). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Terrorists don’t have the resources to commit significant cyber attacks
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A consistent line of argument that we have made is that cyber powers are restrained from using cyber capabilities due to blowback dynamics, the fear of collateral damage, and the concern that cyber incidents will lead to escalation. 45 That leaves cyber terrorists and hackers as the dangerous parties in the cyber world since they do not operate under the same restraints. Yet, it seems clear that their capabilities are limited in that they can do little to impact a nation-state with its considerable resources and systems designed for resiliency. There is little that can be done to deter a non-state actor from initiating, since there often is no clear actor to hold responsible. However, the effectiveness of the tools of non-state actors to impact important national security targets is limited. Cyber security firms propose that governments, corporations, and other private organizations continue to hire them to protect networks from these future incidents. However, these protective measures are only as good as the last infiltration by these rogue cyber groups. They are programmed to protect against what is already known, and these malicious non-state cyber groups are able to adapt and infiltrate again under new methods. The feedback loop continues, where money is essentially thrown at the problem and the problem is not solved. Better logistics and human training, however, will be more effective. If human error within the victimized networks is the main source of the problem, then this is the problem that must be focused on and corrected. Overall, we argue that the impact of cyber actions has so far been minimal. Even the oft-repeated fear of cyber terrorism is muted once we dive into the real dynamics of these incidents. Most cyber actions seem toothless. This is a very positive result of our analysis, but what next? The goal should be to enfranchise these findings into a system of permanent norms that govern how cyber technology is used in the foreign policy domain. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 187). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
No long-term impact of cyber incidents
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Chapter 7 looks at three high-profile cyber actions by non-state actors: Cyber Gaza, incidents perpetrated by the Syrian Electronic Army, and the multi-target espionage campaign, Red October. We found that these non-state actors have used the cyber domain to wreak havoc on their more powerful state-based adversaries. As these actors are no match for the conventional military capabilities of their enemies, they instead lash out in the form of vandalism, DDoS, and intrusive methods, where the primary side effect of their actions is confusion and fear in the target governments and populations. However, as with the incidents covered in Chapter 6, the long-term effects of these actions are few to nonexistent. Israel is still containing Hamas in Gaza, American media firms are still publishing stories on the Syrian civil conflict that paint the Assad regime as inhumane and tyrannical, and states affected by the Red October espionage are still hiding secrets. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 217). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Ext - -No Impact to Espionage
States don’t respond to espionage attacks
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Armed Forces & Society, The Impact of Cyber Conflict on International Relations, p. 6
In addition to coercion, spectacularly public cyber incidents using methods that are difficult to conceal from a population, like DDoS methods are also likely to engender a response. A targeted state cannot afford to look weak and fail to respond to such actions that seek to make a demonstration of capability. Other cyber tactics, such as espionage and nuisances, are less likely to exhibit reactions because they can be concealed and the targeted state is unlikely to pursue escalatory reactions, given the potential for cyber escalation
Ext – Norms Solve
Status quo norms solve
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The future is open, and thus the cyber world could become dangerous, yet the norms we see developing so far seem to limit the amount of harm in the system. If these norms hold, institutions will develop to manage the worst abuses in cyberspace, and states will focus on cyber resilience and basic defense rather than offensive technologies and digital walls. Cyberspace would therefore become a fruitful place for developments for our globalized society. This arena could be the place of digital collaboration, education, and exchanges, communicated at speeds that were never before possible. If states fall into the trap of buying into the fear-based cyber hype by developing offensive weapons under the mistaken belief that these actions will deter future incidents, cyberspace is doomed. We will then have a restricted technology that prevents the developments that are inherent in mankind’s progressive nature. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 4). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Ext -- Restraint
The reasons deterrence fails are the same reasons states are restrained
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A system of deterrence is unrealistic in cyber operations because credibility is lacking and actors cannot retaliate due to the uncontrollable nature of the weapon. We argue that restraint comes into play in this system for this reason. Cyber maneuvers to demonstrate resolve and credibility are also limited because of the potential of displayed capabilities to be replicated back on the originator, and the high likelihood of collateral damage. Also, the idea of quick and anonymous incidents is misguided and inaccurate given that most cyber interactions occur during periods of rivalry, and thus the perpetrator is often known. Deterrence processes require intense long-term planning and surveillance. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 47). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Deterrence fails but cyber restraint is true
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While cyber technologies might not apply to traditional deterrence logics, this does not mean that other forms of normative constraints on conflict fail, making an operation that seems like deterrence workable. We argue that a system of cyber restraint is in operation. Cyber operations are limited due to the nature of the tactic and the conditions that limit the engagement of targets by cyber victims or offenders. Cyber incidents can be replicated right back to the target, making the tactic risky to display. There might also be blowback in the form of retaliations directed at the attacking state’s extended interests. If one state utilizes a cyber tactic, the target state could use the offense as an opportunity to target civilians on the initiating side, limiting the usefulness of the operation in the first place. Finally, the tactic is too expansive to control. It is nearly impossible to limit the amount of damage done to civilians and infrastructure if cyber capabilities are utilized. For these reasons, a system of cyber norms are in operation that limit the amount of damage a state can inflict using cyber technologies. Thus, although states may have the capabilities to unleash weapons into cyberspace, they are restrained from doing so nearly all of the time, even during war. Surprisingly, even the most cyber-capable states in the system (United States, China, and Russia) are restrained from utilizing their most potent cyber weapons during conflict. This could mean that they prefer other tactics, but the bottom line is that cyber tactics have been used less than one would think if we are truly experiencing a period of technological revolution in military tactics. The United States did not use cyber tactics during the operation in Libya and only at a low level against individual cells in Afghanistan. There was a similar outcome with Russia against Ukraine in 2014, with little evidence of direct cyber action beyond seeking to control domestic groups within Russia. A policy outcome of cyber restraint typically ensues in these cases, and states will generally fail to take advantage of cyber capabilities, handcuffing their options out of choice. The process is much like placing an individual in a straitjacket to limit further harm. To protect others, including those in the state of interest, the initiator limits the options on the table and restrains its own ability to conduct operations. This is not deterrence in the mutually assured destruction variant, but indeed an entirely different concept that we deem cyber restraint. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (pp. 48-49). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Blowback and the threat of retaliation induces restraint
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The final process that produces cyber restraint is the notion of blowback or retaliation. A bit of a different concern from replication, blowback basically means that there will be responses to cyber actions, often conventional. There will be consequences to cyber actions, not in the form of mutually assured destruction, but in the form of conventional operations to cyber actions because of the normative red lines that states have instituted. The worst case, the hypothetical cyber Pearl Harbor, is unlikely to happen because the response would be so massive and would occur in the conventional form. We move beyond cyber considerations here and suggest that functional abilities to unleash pain will constrain actions in potential initiating parties. The United States has noted that a cyber incident could result in conventional responses if done as an act of war. This leaves us to speculate that there is fear attached to the use of cyber weapons. There is restraint in the Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 64). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Fear of problems with use produces restraint
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The overall motivation is that fear will produce restraint in cyber actors. There are too many negative consequences of the use of cyber weapons, for states at least. The problem of attribution in cyber technologies has been mostly overstated in regard to foreign policy– motivated attacks. If South Korea is hacked with a computer network infiltration, it is generally simple to determine which state might be responsible. When Georgia is attacked in cyberspace in the midst of an invasion, the perpetrator is not difficult to deduce. There is no hiding in the cyber world; actions will come back to haunt offensive cyber states, and there are consequences for actions; thus we argue for the limited nature of cyber action, despite the cyber revolution hypothesis.
Ext – Limited to Regional Use
Any cyber use confined to regional interactions
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
In reality, we find the locations of cyber conflict generally confined to regional interactions. This is likely because the level of animosity needed to utilize cyber tactics generally only occurs between states who have historic conflicts rooted in territoriality and other issues that can lead to war proneness (Vasquez and Valeriano 2010). The only states that defy these patterns are the hegemonic powers that conduct global operations; otherwise, most operations will be local and connected to traditional issues that divide states. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 49). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Any cyber conflict will be local/regional
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
In addition to the restraint limitations on the free hand of cyber conflict, we also hypothesize that cyber relations will take a regional tone. The most dangerous enemies will be local. Examples are replete: Russia and Georgia, Pakistan and India, Israel and Iran. We should see these dynamics at work for cyber rivals. While the suggestion is that wars and conflict can now be inflicted in far-off places toward far-off locations, the reality is likely much different. Since there is restraint at work for cyber conflict, those dyads that do conduct full-scale cyber operations will likely be local rivals due to the salience and immediacy of the rivalry. This is especially true for the territorial conflicts connected to many ongoing rivalries (Valeriano 2013). Rivalries spring up directly from territorial issues and displays of power; in this context, we should see many of the cyber conflicts that do occur located in regional rivalries dominated by territorial issues. Further, states that aim to exert influence in a particular region may also turn to cyber tactics. Low-level cyber incidents constitute a relatively unimportant matter to other states. Small aggressions indicate states expanding their standing and power through these interactions. It is a form of control, or operating as a “big brother.” States hoping to rise in a regional power hierarchy are likely to leverage any form of capability— not necessarily to exert force on others, but to prevent neighbors from checking their expansion. States striving for regional strength in relation to their neighboring rivals, such as China, Israel, and India, are the likely cyber conflict culprits. Regional dynamics lead us to hypothesize that states will use cyber capabilities on neighbors, not global rivals. Power and the display of power are a key concern in international affairs. The importance of the factor is often overstated, yet the observation basically holds that states believe power is important and therefore they do what they can to display their capabilities. When one rival is far behind the capabilities of another, it stands to reason that it will do whatever is possible to create a system of equality. The idea is that equality and balancing will create peace (Waltz 1979). While this is clearly untrue and misguided (Bremer 1992), it still motivates international behavior. Related to our earlier hypotheses, we argue that a system of cyber norms has been created that regulates the non-usage of cyber activities at a massive and severe scale. How then are we to explain lower-level cyber operations? Many take the form of simple espionage, often termed the second oldest profession in the world. States utilize espionage techniques where possible because they represent simple steps to tackle and manage an international problem. It is under this context that we will observe cyber espionage operations. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 74). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Most wars are local, not continent-defying cyber conflicts
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
While theoretically cyber conflict can be global, we must also remember that conflict in general is not global. Despite advances in the speed of communications and transportations, the old adage that conflict is local still holds. Most wars are fought over territorial issues (Vasquez and Valeriano 2010), and the spatial dynamics of these issues mean that most conflicts are localized. Despite having capabilities that can transcend place and space, we continue to fight very local conflicts. Continent-defying ballistic missiles are rarely or never used. When global battles are fought, such as the conflicts between the United States and its allies against Afghanistan or Iraq, we still see many local contextual issues arise. It takes months to build the capacity to fight. Supplies still need to be brought in; local knowledge needs to be acquired. Advances in technology have not necessarily changed who is fighting whom and how. We will likely continue to see this traditional conception of conflict in cyber battles, despite the ideas of cyber gurus. For these reasons, we prefer to use the term cyber conflict throughout. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 31). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Regional cyber conflicts don’t escalate
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Armed Forces & Society, The Impact of Cyber Conflict on International Relations, p. 35
The findings on cyber incidents using the fixed effects panel data method uncover the individual directed dyadic effects of these events on foreign policy interactions. Table 8 shows the results of our fixed effects method and shows that overall cyber incidents as well as major powers in a dyad do not have any statistically significant effects in foreign policy interactions. However, the regional variable produces negative and statistically significant results. Regional rivals engage in low-level cyber incidents to exert power without escalating into more complicated and dangerous conflicts. Cyber incidents are a way to burn the other side using ‘‘botnets’’ instead of bullets.49
Ext – Low Risk
Cyber battles are rare
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
The most immediate point that can be made about these results is that very few states actually fight cyber battles. 12 Only 16 percent of all rivals engage in cyber conflict. In total, we have recorded 111 cyber incidents and 45 disputes over the 11-year period of relations between the 20 rivals. The next question relates to the strength and power of each incident and dispute. The severity levels of these incidents and disputes are also, on average, at a very low level. The average severity level for cyber incidents is 1.65 and for disputes is 1.71. These numbers lie between the least severe to second least severe scores. This means that most cyber conflicts between rival states tend to be mere nuisances, disruptions, and benign. This is surprising, considering the awareness of the issue in the media and the military. It is also perplexing considering that these states are active rivals that often have public military disputes with one another; in fact, engaging in militarized disputes is a necessary condition of rivalry, yet we fail to demonstrate many cyber disputes. Perhaps the cyber threat is over-inflated in relation to its actual impact. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 89). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
US has advanced cyber capabilities but does not engage in cyber attacks
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
Quite the opposite is found with the next most active state in cyberspace, the United States. The United States is generally not the initiator of cyber conflict, and is usually a target of its enemies. 14 We find evidence of great restraint from the American foreign policy regime, as previous research (Maness and Valeriano 2014) has found the United States to be the most offensively capable state in cyberspace. The United States is the creator of some of the most sophisticated infiltrations in the world, but has used its grand capabilities sparingly. Stuxnet has perhaps been the most sophisticated worm to be launched willingly against another state (toward Iran, and others by mistake), yet it seems that unless a state is blatantly defying international rules and trying to develop nuclear weapons technology, a rival of the United States will not suffer the great capabilities of the global hegemon. The next chapter covers American cyber restraint when infiltrated by China in more detail. Table 4.9 identifies the most severe cyber disputes uncovered in our investigation. The most immediate piece of information gathered from this table is that the severity of cyber disputes has been moderate to low in relation to the attention the event has gathered in the media. There have been no events that led to massive damage of critical infrastructure. In addition, there have been no disputes that resulted in the loss of lives. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (pp. 93-94). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Cyber conflict occurs in dyads
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
Cyber conflict also tends to exist in dyads with a major regional power, such as China, Israel, and India. Figure 4.2 maps cyber incidents in East Asia. China frequently infiltrates its neighbors, including unidirectional cyber tactics on Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan. The triad of North Korea, South Korea, and Japan show a continued conflict online. The states engaging in cyber conflict expand their power in non-traditional theaters. The tactics are enough to get rivals’ attention, but do not create enough havoc to warrant a militarized response. This fails to falsify our hypothesis on cyber espionage, as most of China’s rivals in East Asia are under the US military umbrella of protection; therefore provocation of these rivals in a conventional military fashion could provoke an escalatory response from the United States. Furthermore, when it comes to confronting the United States itself, it seems that China can best demonstrate its rising power in a managed and non-escalatory fashion in cyberspace. More on this phenomenon is discussed in the next chapter. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (pp. 97-98). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Cyber conflict most likely in a situation of war
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
Cyber conflict has roots in more conventional forms of territorial disagreements; these disagreements raise tensions to a certain level where states will act, both conventionally and in the cyber realm. Territorial disputes are directly connected to the increased probability of a militarized dispute and war (Vasquez and Henehan 2001; Senese and Vasquez 2008; Vasquez and Valeriano 2010). For regional rivals, cyber conflict is found to be in its proper context, part of the normal relations range of rival interactions (Azar 1972). Most cyber disputes are regional in context, and the great majority of these cases involve ongoing issues that extend beyond the cyber world. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 100). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
These wars did not start as cyber conflicts
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
The claim is that the cyber era is different and that we will see drastically new dynamics evident in the international discourse. If true, we would often see cyber conflicts and events transition from the digital realm to the normal international realm. We decided to examine the empirical veracity of these claims. The data demonstrate a bit of a different story. We find that only three of these incidents, the Russia-Georgia incident during the 2008 five-day conventional conflict, the East China Sea Dispute between Japan and China in 2010, and the US-Syria incident in 2011 during the genesis period of the now bloody Syrian civil war are connected to further international tensions under what we might consider a militarized interstate dispute (MID), or a use, display, or threat of force (using the newly released MID 4.0 data). Only one incident actually preceded a militarized interstate dispute. This took place in 2008, with perhaps the most well-known case of cyber actions during a militarized campaign. It involved the series of defacements and DDoS incidents that Russia conducted against Georgia during the August 2008 five-day conflict (see Table 4.12). However, the claim that these cyber actions led directly to this military campaign is dubious at best. 18 The militarized campaign did not need the preceding cyber incident to succeed, and the primary purpose of the cyber portion of the Russian campaign was to instill fear and confusion within the Georgian government and people. The cyber dispute in and of itself did not cause the conventional conflict. In the two other militarized disputes involving cyber activity, the cyber incidents did not precede the militarized ones; therefore there is only shaky evidence for cyber spillover becoming part of relations among rivals. One incident involved Japan and China and their continuing rivalry over territorial concerns in the East China Sea. We found that when a cyber incident seeps into the conventional international affairs battlefield, the reason is likely that the disputes are connected to salient territorial issues. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 103). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
No cyber conflict in the modern era
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
According to popular conception, we should be in the middle of the cyber conflict era now. As of the writing of this chapter, searching for the term “massive cyber attack” results in 13,500,000 hits on Google. Pundits make it seem as if the state’s enemies are active now, preparing to unleash cyber Armageddon. Yet, even considering our past investigations and theory, we were shocked to find little actual evidence of cyber conflict in the modern era. Instead, we observed the absence of incidents by cyber forces even during conventional armed conflict. Rather than observing a new way of warfare, we found much of the same, regional low-level conflicts and incidents connected to territorial claims. In fact, only 20 of the 126 rival dyads engage in cyber conflict— a rate of about 15.8 percent, which is well below the suggested tipping rate of 33 percent mentioned in Chapter 3. In comparison, the incidence of cyber conflict pales in comparison to that of transnational terrorist attacks, or terrorism that involves persons from two or more states. 19 Only the Asian states of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam have been victim to more cyber incidents than transnational terrorist attacks. All in all, there have been 590 times as many terrorist attacks as cyber incidents, according to our sample. 20 Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 105). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Only terrorists would risk cyber attacks and they don’t have the resources for sophisticated attacks
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
The real cyber threats may come from ambitious individuals and malicious hackers, not states or international actors. An important point for our argument is that states will not risk war with their cyber capabilities because there are clear consequences to any use of these technologies. States are not reckless, but terrorists and other cyber activists might not be so restrained. The interesting result of the process is that while cyber terrorists will likely proliferate, their ability to do damage will be limited due to the massive resources and conventional intelligence methods needed to make an operation like Stuxnet successful, a question that we explore in Chapter 7.21 Stuxnet and Flame could be the harbingers of the future, but in reality the initiators of each incident were aided by a collusion of discrete events. With a will to initiate cyber malice, there must also come a way to do so. With such a high burden of luck and ability, it will be rare to see such important disputes continue in the future. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (pp. 105-106). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
No significant impact to cyber espionage
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
Cyber espionage is to be expected. The espionage industry is one of the oldest professions in this world, and it is not going away. States will use whatever tactics they can to achieve political ends. But throughout the course of history, the impact of cyber espionage has been relatively minor, and major successes can generally be attributed to errors in the target rather than the prowess of the aggressor itself. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 107). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Threat Construction
Cyber hype is threat construction
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
Our concern is that fear dominates the international system. The contention is that harm is a constant factor in international life (Machiavelli 2003; Hobbes 2009); everything is a danger to all, and all are a danger to most. It is through this prism that the international affairs community approaches each technological development and each step forward, and it does so with trepidation and weariness. Because of the hype surrounding the development of cyber weaponry, the step toward what might be called cyber international interactions is no different. With the advent of the digital age of cyber communications, this process of fear construction continues to shape dialogues in international relations as cyberspace becomes a new area of contestation in international interactions. Old paradigms focused on power politics, displays of force, and deterrence are applied to emergent tactics and technologies with little consideration of how the new tactic might result in different means and ends. We argue that these constructed reactions to threats have little purchase when examined through the prism of evidence or when judged compared to the normative implications of action. There is an advantage to bringing empirical analysis and careful theory to the cyber security debate. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (pp. 1-2). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Foreign cyber threat rhetoric discourages a focus on domestic cyber threats
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
With a focus on offensive cyber operations and the inflated nature of mythical cyber threats, there seems to be a misdirected application of the technology in the policy sphere (Dunn-Cavelty 2008). Instead of a revolution in military affairs, cyber tactics just seem to have refocused the state on external threats that then escalate through the typical process of the security dilemma. In some ways, fears of cyber conflict become self-fulfilling prophecies. Dunn-Cavelty’s (2008) work is instructive here, as it dissects this growing cyber threat perception in the United States and the driving engine behind it— cyber defense contracts. By focusing on the external threats, rather than the internal criminal threat that comes from cyber enterprises, we may have missed many opportunities at collaboration and institution building. There obviously needs to be a global accounting for cyber actions and plans, even those that inflate cyber fears, as Clarke and Knake (2010) agree. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 42). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Cyber threat discourse is socially constructed
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
Our theory is social constructivist in nature (Berger and Luckmann 1967; Onuf 1989). As others, such as Dunn-Cavelty (2008), Eriksson and Giacomello (2009), and Hansen (2011), have suggested, cyber threats are socially constructed. The danger that cyber incidents can portray between rival factions can construct a very real threat that will then lead to escalated tensions between these entities (Hansen 2011). Furthermore, the public as well as corporate framing of cyber incidents as a threat, real or imagined, can lead to a change in a state’s perception of the threat, which in turn would demand action, either diplomatically or militarily (Nissenbaum 2005; Eriksson and Giacomello 2009). The state would find the need to securitize itself from these cyber threats, which could spill over into more conventional responses, such as airstrikes or economic sanctions (Hansen and Nissenbaum 2009). We follow these points and agree that the nature of and response to cyber threats are socially constructed by many diverse factors, such as government messages, media talking points, and popular culture. This orientation makes us question the nature of the cyber discourse and focus on empirical observations rather than the message of such attacks. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 51). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
Potential cyber war initiators are deterred
Maness & Valeriano, 2015, Ryan C. Maness, Northeastern University, Department of Political Science, Brandon Valeriano, University of Glasglow, Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System, Kindle Edition, page number at end of card
To this point, the discourse on cyber conflict, weapons, policy, and security clearly lacks an engagement of theory and evidence in relation to the international system. There are many questions that scholars and policymakers raise; however, there are few real deductive or inductive explorations of cyber processes by these people. Cyber strategies and analysis at this point are entirely anti-theoretical. Many misapply basic international relations concepts and ideas as they see fit. There is a sizable gap between a constructive analysis of a critical international process and the actual evaluation of cyber interactions. New tactics sometimes require new modes of thought to deal with their implications. Instead, cyber theorists seem to be focused on either predicting a constant use of cyber tactics or misapplying deterrence logics to the study of cyber interactions. The main flaw of the entire cyber security enterprise is a complete lack of theoretical engagement beyond a few atypical examples— one of the few being Choucri’s (2012) examination of cyber power and lateral pressure. We hope to rectify this problem by laying out a theory of cyber political interactions based on the principle of restraint in cyberspace and the issue-based perspective of international politics. We argue that cyber options are usually removed from the toolkit of responses available to a state because massive cyber operations would escalate a conflict beyond control, would lead to unacceptable collateral damage, and would leave the initiating side open to economic and computational retaliation. When cyber operations are used, they typically are low-scale events akin more to propaganda and espionage than warfare. This leads to cyber restraint, a form of operations derived from deterrence theory but not dependent on it. We also argue that there will be a large amount of regional interactions in cyberspace because these conflicts are tied to traditional reasons that states disagree, namely territorial conflicts. Understanding these perspectives will be critical in analyzing emerging cyber security threats Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (p. 46). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
An updated version of Chapter 5 is available in a forthcoming 2015 article in Armed Forces and Society titled ‘The Impact of Cyber Conflict on International Interactions’. Valeriano, Brandon; Maness, Ryan C. (2015-04-27). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System (Kindle Locations 132-134). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.
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